| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 按照 短线整理 | CPC 月度展望来看，7 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 | | | | 面丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆，豆粕进入累库阶段。饲料企业库存 | | | | 开始走高于去年同期，进一步补库积极性预计会有所减缓。美豆 6 月种植面积环比 | | 豆粕 | | 小幅下降，产量减少幅度影响非常有限，季度库存高于预期，且高于过去四年同期。 | | | | 整体数据一般。昨日豆粕低位反弹，美生柴落地前夕，市场做空心态谨慎，短线暂 | | | | 以整理行情对待，关注生柴政策结果。主力【2930，2980】 | | | | 欧盟及加籽种植天气降雨偏低，部分地区土壤墒情偏干。新季全球菜籽产量有所恢 复，电脑加籽种植面积同比下降，同比增幅受限，关注后续天气及单产情况。国内 | | | | 市场，目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存环比整体去库，商业库存去库，但同比维持较高水平。 | | | 7 | 月至 9 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，叠加 100%加菜粕进口关税，以及旧作加籽的 | | 菜粕 | ...

黄金行情分析中 黄金陷入震荡！特朗普关税措施将有何影响？趋势回踩后能否持续上延？TTPS团队马老师正在直播， 立即观看！ 相关链接 ...

特朗普称，美联储应迅速降息。特朗普称赞英伟达股价自特朗普关税以来上涨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Non - farm data cooled the interest - rate cut trading significantly, and the macro mainline returned to Trump's tariff policy. Trump's administration's "apparently tough but actually soft" stance strengthened the TACO consensus, but Trump may not always "follow the rules", so the risk of TACO trading reversal should be watched, and attention should be paid to the progress of EU - US and China - US trade negotiations [1]. - The better - than - expected non - farm employment data in June showed that the US labor market remained resilient, and the sufficient condition for the Fed to cut interest rates was not triggered, leading to a significant cooling of interest - rate cut trading. The trading mainline may return to Trump's tariff policy [12][15][16]. - After the expiration of the reciprocal tariff suspension period, Trump's tariff policy was "apparently tough but actually soft", further strengthening the market's TACO trading consensus [20][22]. - In the third quarter, the macro trading mainline may revolve around TACO trading. The potential risk was that Trump might become tougher on tariff policy after domestic pressure eased, which could lead to a reversal of TACO trading [22][31]. - The next - stage macro trading mainline still revolved around Trump's tariff policy. There was a possibility of switching from TACO trading to interest - rate cut trading in September. Attention should be paid to the EU - US trade negotiations and the China - US trade negotiations after August 12 [4][32]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Third - Quarter Overseas Macro Mainline Recalibration 3.1.1 Non - farm Data and Interest - rate Cut Trading - The US added 147,000 non - farm jobs in June, higher than the market expectation, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, indicating the resilience of the US labor market. The government sector's employment increase supported the data, while the private sector's employment declined, showing some structural problems [12]. - Inflation was a necessary but not sufficient condition for the Fed to cut interest rates, while a significant weakening of the labor market was a sufficient condition. The good labor data in June likely closed the door for a July interest - rate cut, and interest - rate cut trading cooled [15][16]. 3.1.2 Trump's Tariff Policy - Before the expiration of the reciprocal tariff suspension period on July 9, Trump's administration adopted a "tough - and - soft" negotiation strategy. It sent tariff letters to 22 countries in two batches on July 7 and 9 [2][20]. - In terms of countries, the first two batches of letter - receiving countries were mainly Asian countries, with a "warning" meaning. In terms of tax rates, except for Brazil, only three countries had higher new tariff rates, and the increase was small. In terms of the implementation period, the new tariffs would be implemented on August 1, about three weeks later than the original plan [20][21]. - Trump's "apparently tough but actually soft" tariff policy strengthened the market's TACO trading consensus. After the letters were sent, the stock markets in Japan and South Korea showed a "bad news is good news" trend [22]. 3.1.3 Potential Risks of TACO Trading Reversal - Compared with April, Trump's domestic pressure had eased. The US financial market had recovered, and the "Great Beauty" bill had passed, which was a major victory for Trump [22][23][25]. - After the "Great Beauty" bill was passed, Trump's administration might shift its policy focus to tariffs to increase tariff revenue, promote re - industrialization, and strengthen the "victory narrative" for the 2026 mid - term elections [27]. - Trump's administration showed a tendency to weaponize tariff policy, such as significantly increasing the tariff rate on Brazil, which might lead to a reversal of TACO trading [29][31].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 按照 短线整理 | CPC 月度展望来看，7 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 | | | | 面丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆，豆粕进入累库阶段。饲料企业库存 | | | | 开始走高于去年同期，进一步补库积极性预计会有所减缓。美豆 6 月种植面积环比 | | | | 小幅下降，产量减少幅度影响非常有限，季度库存高于预期，且高于过去四年同期。 | | | | 整体数据一般。昨日豆粕低位反弹，美生柴落地前夕，市场做空心态谨慎，短线暂 | | | | 以整理行情对待，关注生柴政策结果。主力【2920，2970】 | | | 至 | 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存环比整体去库，商业库存去库，但同比维持较高水平。7 月 9 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，叠加 100%加菜粕进口关税，以及旧作加籽的强势。 | | 菜粕 | 短线调整 | 对菜粕价格构成较强支持，关注后续中加关系改善情况。现货市场方面，豆菜粕现 货价差低位导致菜粕饲料添加下降，不利于消费预期。昨日菜粕跟随收涨，在缺乏 | | | | 驱 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant internal debate within the Federal Reserve regarding the impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation and the potential for interest rate cuts in the coming months [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The Federal Reserve is divided on whether the new costs from tariffs justify maintaining high interest rates, with some officials concerned about inflation expectations [1][5]. - Recent changes, including a reduction in some extreme tariff increases and an extended negotiation period with multiple countries, have altered the Fed's outlook on rate cuts [4][5]. - There has been no significant increase in consumer prices related to tariffs yet, although many expect to see price rises in upcoming June and July data [5][6]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Strategy - The internal division within the Fed presents a critical test regarding the inflationary nature of tariffs and how to manage costs if predictions are incorrect [6]. - Fed Chair Powell's recent comments suggest a tactical flexibility, indicating that potential rate cuts are a continuation of a process paused due to tariff risks [7][8]. - Powell's stance reflects a middle ground, acknowledging the possibility of less severe inflation than previously thought, which may open the door for rate cuts based on labor market conditions or improved inflation data [8][9].

金十数据7月10日讯，"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos最新发文称，美联储内部正在酝酿的一场关于如何 应对特朗普关税带来的风险的辩论，这可能会结束一段相对团结的时期，官员们可能会在新的成本增长 是否成为理由保持利率高企的问题上产生分歧。最近几周，美联储主席鲍威尔暗示，降息的门槛可能会 比今年春天看起来的要低一些，不过预计本月不会降息。相反，鲍威尔描绘了一种"中间路径"：如果通 胀数据低于预期或就业市场略显疲软，这可能足以让美联储在夏末前启动降息。这一标准低于此前更严 苛的门槛——当时在更大规模关税上调引发剧烈通胀预期的背景下，美联储可能要求更明显的经济恶化 迹象才会考虑降息。特朗普4月宣布的关税上调幅度超出预期，引发了人们对经济增长减弱、物价上涨 的滞胀局面的担忧，打乱了美联储今年恢复降息的计划。但从那以后，两项发展推动了一种可能的转 变。首先，特朗普降低了一些最极端的关税上调；其次，与关税相关的消费者价格上涨尚未成为现实。 这为有关关税是否会导致通胀的相互竞争的理论提供了一个关键考验，并在如何管理预测错误的问题上 引发了内部分歧。 "美联储传声筒"：美联储内部"团结"不再 分歧时代或将登场 ...

意大利咖啡巨头Lavazza称，对冲基金等金融投机者应为咖啡价格飙升承担80%的责任，他们推动价格 达到了对行业和消费者来说"完全不可持续"的水平。 7月10日，据媒体报道，意大利咖啡巨头Lavazza集团主席Giuseppe Lavazza表示，过去四年咖啡价格的 大幅上涨中，80%来自投机活动，特别是对冲基金的操作。这种波动性和不确定性对烘焙商、贸易商甚 至生产商都造成了"令人难以置信"的影响。 伦敦罗布斯塔咖啡期货这一全球基准价格今年1月飙升至每吨超过5700美元的历史新高。尽管价格已回 落至本周约3500美元，但仍远高于1700美元的历史平均水平。 由于价格高企，过去两年全球咖啡消费量已下降3.5%。尽管Giuseppe Lavazza表示消费者咖啡价格"有 望"已经见顶，但新的监管和特朗普的贸易政策可能推动价格再次上涨。 全球最大咖啡贸易商之一、总部位于荷兰的Mercon Coffee Group在2023年底本轮涨势开始时申请破产， 成为市场波动的受害者之一。 Lavazza集团同样面临巨大压力。这家总部位于都灵的公司被迫大幅增加营运资本，去年采购咖啡的支 出达到16亿欧元，较2018年的6亿欧元 ...

周二（7月8日），"特朗普关税输家"指数涨0.15%，报101.76点，美股盘初一度呈现出V形反转。 少数成分股收跌，孩之宝跌0.05%，蔻驰跌0.28%，SharkNinja跌0.37%，耐克跌3.41%表现倒数第二， e.l.f. Beauty跌4.41%。 成分股Fluence Energy涨5.39%，海伦特洛伊涨3.95%，史丹利百得涨3.45%，"特斯拉劲敌"Rivian涨 2.98%，百思买涨2.45%，3M涨1.25%表现靠前。 ...

"特朗普关税输家指数"的成分股中，e.l.f. Beauty跌5.09%，耐克跌3.23%，Wayfair跌1.40%，Gap跌 1.08%。 ...