021-60635570 行业 生猪日报 日期 2026 年 03 月 04 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，3日生猪主力2605合约小幅低开后震荡走跌，尾盘收阴，最高11220 元/吨，最低 11120 元/吨，收盘报 11150 元/吨，较 ...

2026 年 3 月 2 日 生猪：淡季被动累库，肥标驱动将现 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 10980 | | -50 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 10700 | | -100 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 11410 | | 0 | | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11485 | | 90 | | | | 生猪2607 | 元/吨 | 12510 | | 150 | | | 期 货 | 生猪2609 | 元/吨 | 13495 | | 165 | | | | | 单 位 | 成交量 ...

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The futures market is trading inventory accumulation in advance, but it is difficult to reduce inventory during the off - season [1] Summary of Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: Henan spot price is 11,030 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan/ton; Sichuan spot price is 10,800 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 100 yuan/ton; Guangdong spot price is 11,360 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton. For futures, the price of live hog 2603 is 10,120 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 275 yuan/ton, live hog 2605 is 11,395 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 70 yuan/ton, and live hog 2607 is 12,360 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 15 yuan/ton [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For live hog 2603, the trading volume is 15,271 lots, an increase of 299 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 16,629 lots, a decrease of 8,167 lots from the previous day. For live hog 2605, the trading volume is 54,028 lots, a decrease of 38,690 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 154,348 lots, a decrease of 119 lots from the previous day. For live hog 2607, the trading volume is 9,060 lots, a decrease of 6,783 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 53,361 lots, an increase of 553 lots from the previous day [1] - **Spreads**: The basis of live hog 2603 is 910 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 375 yuan/ton; the basis of live hog 2605 is - 365 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 170 yuan/ton; the basis of live hog 2607 is - 1330 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 85 yuan/ton. The spread between live hog 2603 and 2605 is - 1275 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 205 yuan/ton, and the spread between live hog 2605 and 2607 is - 965 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 85 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Guangxi Yangxiang registered 100 lots of warehouse receipts for the March contract; Dekang registered 525 lots; Fuyuan registered 22 lots; Muyuan registered 80 lots; COFCO registered 300 lots; Tangrenshen registered 10 lots; Yuexiu registered 99 lots; Tiannong registered 20 lots [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 2, indicating the most bearish view, with the value ranging from - 2 to 2 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View - The futures market is trading inventory accumulation in advance, but it is difficult to reduce inventory during the off - season [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: - Henan spot price is 10,930 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year; Sichuan spot price is 10,900 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton year - on - year; Guangdong spot price is 11,310 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton year - on - year [2]. - Futures prices:生猪2603 is 10,395 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton;生猪2605 is 11,465 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton;生猪2607 is 12,345 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan/ton [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - For生猪2603, trading volume is 11,725 hands, down 4,001 hands from the previous day, and open interest is 23,819 hands, down 4,193 hands from the previous day [2]. - For生猪2605, trading volume is 92,641 hands, up 14,108 hands, and open interest is 154,544 hands, up 2,011 hands [2]. - For生猪2607, trading volume is 15,839 hands, up 6,257 hands, and open interest is 52,812 hands, up 1,698 hands [2]. - **Spread Data**: - 生猪2603 basis is 535 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan/ton year - on - year;生猪2605 basis is - 535 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton year - on - year;生猪2607 basis is - 1,415 yuan/ton, down 410 yuan/ton year - on - year [2]. - 生猪3 - 5 spread is - 1,070 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan/ton year - on - year;生猪5 - 7 spread is - 880 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton year - on - year [2]. 3.2 Market Information - Guangxi Yangxiang registered 100 hands of 3 - month contract warehouse receipts; Dekang registered 525 hands; Fuyuan registered 22 hands; Muyuan registered 80 hands; COFCO registered 300 hands; Tangrenshen registered 10 hands; Yuexiu registered 99 hands; Tiannong registered 20 hands [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend intensity is [-2, 2], where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [4].

2026 年 2 月 25 日 生猪：现货不及预期，淡季去库难度大 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11080 | | -1300 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11300 | | 450 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 11660 | | 0 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 10740 | | -155 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11500 | | -40 | | | | 生猪2607 | 元/吨 | 12220 | | -10 | | | | | 单 位 | ...

2026 年 2 月 24 日 生猪：假期现货不及预期 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 12480 | | 100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11350 | | 500 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 11860 | | 200 | | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 10740 | | -155 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11500 | | -40 | | | 货 | 生猪2607 | 元/吨 | 12220 | | -10 | | | 期 ...

行业 生猪日报 日期 2026 年 02 月 12 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，11 日生猪主力 2605 合约小幅低开后震荡走高，尾盘收阳，最高 11590 元/吨，最低 11405 元/吨，收盘报 11555 元/吨，较昨日涨 0.30%， ...

2026 年 2 月 11 日 | | | 单 位 | 价 | 格 | 同 比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | | 12080 | -250 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | | 10850 | -100 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | | 11660 | 0 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 | 格 | 比 同 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | | 10745 | 100 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | | 11470 | -95 | | | | 生猪2607 | 元/吨 | | 12160 | 30 | | | | | 单 位 | 成交量 | 较前日 | 持仓量 | 较昨日 | | | 生猪2603 | 手 | 30850 | -2869 | 51980 | -8063 | | | 生猪2605 | 手 | 46228 | -24311 | 149549 | 1842 | | | 生猪2607 | 手 | 6147 | -1163 | 50025 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot market shows an increase in both supply and demand before the Spring Festival, with a relatively loose supply - demand situation, and the spot price is mainly in a weak - oscillating state. The futures market has sufficient production capacity, and the pig supply is expected to increase slightly. Fattened pigs from secondary fattening still need to be sold after the festival, which will continue to put pressure on the market. After the festival, it is the consumption off - season, so the 03/05 contracts are mainly in a weak - oscillating state [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 10th, the main 2605 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and then oscillated downwards, closing with a negative line. The highest price was 11,575 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,470 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.48% compared to the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 5,429 lots to 316,097 lots [10] - **Spot Market**: On the 10th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 11.56 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.18 yuan/kg compared to the previous day [10] - **Supply - side**: Currently, the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens is relatively high year - on - year, and there are still pigs to be sold before the festival. In February, the planned sales volume of sample breeding enterprises decreased by 17.73% month - on - month. Affected by the reduction in sales days during the holiday, the daily average increased by 21.44% month - on - month. As the Spring Festival approaches, the enthusiasm of the breeding side to sell pigs has increased, and the sales rhythm has accelerated [11] - **Demand - side**: Secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. Around the traditional Chinese minor New Year, the terminal's Spring Festival stocking has increased significantly, which is also the last wave of peak demand before the festival. The consumption demand has increased, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have increased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased significantly. On February 10th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 276,000 heads, an increase of 24,000 heads compared to the previous day, 84,000 heads week - on - week, and 85,000 heads month - on - month [11] 3.2 Industry News - As of February 5th, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - fattening was 12.08 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg week - on - week. The cost of fattening pigs from purchased piglets was affected by both feed prices and piglet prices. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg and then selling them was 12.65 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.14 yuan/kg week - on - week [12][13] 3.3 Data Overview - As of February 5th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - fattening was 37 yuan/head, a decrease of 9 yuan/head week - on - week; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 24.2 yuan/head, a decrease of 10.3 yuan/head week - on - week [16] - In the week of February 5th, the average market sales price of 6.5 - kg piglets was 366 yuan/head, a decrease of 1 yuan/head compared to the previous week [16] - In the week of February 5th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 127.40 kg, a decrease of 0.46 kg compared to the previous week (a week - on - week decrease of 0.36%), a decrease of 1.14 kg compared to the previous month (a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%), and an increase of 3.22 kg compared to the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 2.59%) [16] - In the week of February 5th, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.93 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.1 yuan/jin week - on - week [16] - The cost of purchasing 110 - kg pigs and fattening them to 140 kg this week was 11.86 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.48 yuan/kg compared to the previous week; the cost of purchasing 125 - kg pigs and fattening them to 150 kg was 12.38 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.41 yuan/kg compared to the previous week [16]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry The report does not explicitly mention an industry - wide investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side is neutral as the number of fertile sows decreased in October and November, and the increase in enterprise and retail sales and second - fattening led to inventory accumulation, with continuous supply pressure [3]. - The demand side is bearish. Although the demand for winter solstice stocking was released, there is an expectation of overdraft and subsequent demand vacuum [3]. - The inventory situation is bullish as the cold - storage capacity utilization rates of slaughterhouses and frozen products are at low levels compared to the same period [3]. - The basis/spread is neutral, with the national average price of ternary live pigs at about 12,720 yuan/ton, the closing price of the LH2605 contract at 11,620 yuan/ton, and a basis of + 1,100 yuan/ton [3]. - The profit situation is neutral. Breeding enterprises are still in a loss state, but the loss has been alleviated, and the pig - grain ratio is below the break - even point [3]. - The valuation is neutral. The current futures price is close to the cash cost of breeding but still far from the lowest warehouse - receipt cost [3]. - The macro and policy aspects are bullish. Multiple major stimulus policies have been introduced in China, which are helpful for boosting long - term pork demand [3]. - The investment view is neutral. The second - fattening demand is cautious, the supply side is stable, and there is cost support at the bottom, so the market may fluctuate at the bottom [3]. - The trading strategy is to wait and see for both single - sided and arbitrage trading, with attention on second - fattening demand and feed prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Analyzed the impact factors including supply, demand, inventory, basis/spread, profit, valuation, macro and policy, and provided corresponding driving directions, main logics, investment views, and trading strategies [3]. 3.2 Pig Fundamental Data - **Capacity Scale**: The number of fertile sows in October decreased by 450,000 to 39.9 million, and in November, the number of fertile sows in sample enterprises decreased to 6.666 million. Data on the number of newborn healthy piglets, commodity pig slaughter numbers, survival rates in farrowing rooms and fattening stages were also presented [3][26]. - **Commodity Pig Inventory Structure**: Included data on the inventory proportion of large pigs (90 - 140kg), medium pigs (50 - 90kg), and small pigs (7 - 50kg), as well as standard - fat price differences and north - south price differences [31]. - **Leading Enterprise Slaughter Situation**: Showed the monthly slaughter volumes of large enterprises such as Dabeinong, Tangrenshen, Muyuan, Wen's, and New Hope [43]. - **Slaughter Situation**: Included data on daily slaughter volume, slaughterhouse operating rate, fresh - sales rate, cold - storage capacity utilization rate, as well as the wholesale volume of white - striped pigs in markets like Xinfadi, and the arrival volume of white - striped pigs in markets like Nanhuanqiao and Shanghai Xijiao [48][56]. - **Profit and Feed Price**: Presented data on self - breeding and self - raising profits, profits from purchasing piglets, pig - grain ratio, and fattening pig feed prices [60][61]. 3.3 Pig Capital - side Data - **Basis**: Provided data on the basis of different contracts such as the 11 - contract, 01 - contract, 03 - contract, and 05 - contract [64][65]. - **Futures Monthly Spread**: Included data on the price differences between different contract months, such as 11 - 01, 01 - 03, 03 - 05, and 01 - 05 [71][74].