| | | 下载图片 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 另存为PDF | | 生猪周报 | 2025-09-29 | | | | 分享 | | | | 作者： | | | 【出栏体重略增 猪价震荡偏弱】 | 史香迎 | | | 【市场动态】 | 生猪分析师 | | | 1、9月26日，生猪注册仓单298手； | | | | 2、涌益样本养殖企业8月计划出栏完成率100.04%，9月环比计划+3.92%；整体看9月日均出栏压力明显大于8月； | 期货从业资格：F03086321 | | | 3、本周生猪主力合约（LH2511）震荡偏弱调整，收盘于12575元/吨，持仓量约8.5万手。 | 交易咨询资格：Z0019355 | | | 【基本面分析】 | | | | 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，四季度生猪供应量或维持稳定。仔猪数据看，2025年三四季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，下 | 邮箱地址： | | | 半年消费比上半年好； | shixy@hrrdqh.com | | | 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡走强； | 联系方式： | | | 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①现 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs remains under pressure as large - scale farms continue to sell and smallholders are also actively selling large pigs. Although demand has improved marginally due to cooler temperatures, price drops, and approaching holidays, the increase in demand is less than that in supply. The overall supply - demand situation is loose, which constrains prices. However, with the current price at a relatively low level and high positions held, there is a risk of price fluctuations caused by pre - holiday position changes. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage operations on live pig futures [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights - **Market Performance**: The price of live pigs continued to decline, with the main contract 2511 falling 1.95% weekly [7][11]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply is sufficient while demand growth is limited, keeping the supply - demand pattern loose. Pre - holiday position changes may cause price fluctuations. Reverse arbitrage operations on live pig futures are recommended [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures price fell, with the main contract 2511 down 1.95% for the week [7][11]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: The net short position increased, and there were 298 futures warehouse receipts, 130 less than last week. As of September 26, the net short position of the top 20 holders was 28,375 lots, up 2,571 lots from last week [13][17]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2601 and lh2603 contracts was 445, and the spread between lh2601 and lh2605 contracts was 50 [21]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - **Live Pig and Piglet Prices**: The national average price of live pigs was 12.77 yuan/kg, down 0.14 yuan/kg from last week and 8.33% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 25.38 yuan/kg, down 2.62 yuan/kg from last week and 10.57% from last month [35]. - **Pork and Sow Prices**: The national pork market price was 24.51 yuan/kg in the week of September 18, down 0.19 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.50 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [39]. - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of September 17, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 5.81, down 0.09 from the previous week [43]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In late July 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.41 million, down 10,000 from the previous month and 0.025% year - on - year, reaching 103.6% of the normal level. In August, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms decreased slightly by 0.83% month - on - month, and that in small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly by 0.09% month - on - month [48]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million, up 7.16 million from the end of the previous quarter and 9.14 million year - on - year. In August, the live pig inventory in large - scale farms increased by 1.11% month - on - month, and that in small and medium - sized farms increased by 2.49% month - on - month [54]. - **Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In August, the slaughter volume of large - scale farms increased by 2.56% month - on - month, and that of small and medium - sized farms decreased by 1.44% month - on - month. The average slaughter weight was 123.47 kg, down 0.04 kg from last week [59]. 3.3.2. Industry Profitability - **Live Pig Farming**: As of September 26, the loss of purchasing piglets for farming was 236.57 yuan/head, an increase of 37.25 yuan/head. The loss of self - breeding and self - raising was 74.11 yuan/head, a decrease of 49.66 yuan/head [64]. - **Poultry Farming**: As of September 26, the profit of laying hens was 0.11 yuan/bird, down 0.06 yuan/bird week - on - week, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 1.40 yuan/bird [64]. 3.3.3. Domestic Market - **Pork Imports**: In the first eight months of 2025, the cumulative pork imports were 710,000 tons, with a monthly average of 88,750 tons. In August, the import volume was 80,000 tons, down 11.11% year - on - year [65][69]. 3.3.4. Substitute Products - **White - Striped Chicken Price**: As of the week of September 26, the price of white - striped chicken was 14.4 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from last week [72]. - **Standard - Fat Price Difference**: As of the week of September 26, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.39 yuan/kg, 0.39 yuan/kg less than last week [72]. 3.3.5. Feed Market - **Feed Prices**: As of September 26, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,019.71 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of corn was 2,365.29 yuan/ton, up 4.9 yuan/ton from the previous week [78]. - **Feed Index and Price**: As of September 26, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 894.31, down 0.56% from last week. The price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from last week [83]. - **Feed Output**: In August 2025, the monthly feed output was 29.272 million tons, up 999,000 tons month - on - month. The sales of piglet feed decreased by 0.04% month - on - month and 0.74% year - on - year [87]. 3.3.6. CPI - As of August 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [91]. 3.3.7. Downstream Market - **Slaughtering Enterprises**: In the 39th week, the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate was 32.82%, up 1.05 percentage points from last week and higher than the same period last year. The domestic frozen product storage rate was 17.65%, up 0.09 percentage points from last week [94]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of July 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 31.66 million, up 5.32% from the previous month. In August 2025, the national catering revenue was 44.957 billion yuan, up 2.1% year - on - year [99]. 3.4. Live Pig - Related Stocks - The report mentions the stock trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis content is provided [100][103].

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 09 月 26 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 图1：全国生猪出栏价 元/公斤 图2：样本屠宰场屠宰量 头 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，25 日生猪主力 2511 合约平开后冲 ...

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 09 月 23 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，22 日生猪主力 2511 合约小幅高开后冲高回落震荡走跌，尾盘收 阴，最高 12920 元/吨，最低 12780 元/吨，收盘报 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Spot prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Based on sow and piglet data, there may still be a slight increase in hog slaughter volume by December, and with ample supply, it's difficult for hog prices to rise significantly and continuously. The fat - standard price difference exists, which may enhance farmers' willingness to increase weight. If the price weakness persists, a negative cycle may form, and if so, hog prices are expected to rebound at the end of the year. One could consider a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: Affected by the weak performance of the spot market, this week's futures prices fluctuated weakly [2]. - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [5]. - **月间价差变化**: The inter - month spreads fluctuated and adjusted. With the weakness of the spot market, the 11 - 01 contract showed a reverse spread trend [7][10]. 3.2 Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, and hog prices fluctuated weakly [13]. - **区域价差**: Regional price differences were relatively reasonable [15]. - **肥标价差**: The fat - standard price difference fluctuated and adjusted. Attention should be paid to whether the fat - standard price difference can strengthen after the weather turns cool, which may enhance the weight - increasing willingness of scattered farmers if it does [17]. - **鲜销与毛白价差**: Terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [19]. - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - effectiveness of pork was average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat weakened, and the cost - effectiveness of frozen products was lower than that of fresh products [21]. - **养殖利润**: Self - breeding and self - raising still had profits, while purchasing piglets for fattening was in a slight loss state [23]. - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight increased this week [25]. 3.3 Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: According to Ministry of Agriculture data, the national inventory of reproductive sows at the end of July was 40.42 million, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.0%. Yongyi Consulting data showed that in August, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample 1 increased by 0.02% month - on - month, compared with 0.14% in the previous month. Mysteel data showed that in August, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample large - scale enterprises decreased by 0.83% month - on - month, compared with an increase of 0.01% in the previous month [27]. - **母猪淘汰情况**: This week, the price of culled sows showed a weak trend. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in August, indicating an increase in the market's enthusiasm for capacity reduction [29]. - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In August, the number of healthy newborn piglets increased by 0.15% month - on - month (previous value: + 0.06%), corresponding to an overall fluctuating increase in the volume of hogs to be slaughtered in February next year (calculated based on a 6 - month fattening period) [31]. - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a weak trend, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was weak [33]. 3.4 Slaughter End - The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. According to Ministry of Agriculture data, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises in July was 31.66 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.3% and a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. In terms of frozen products, the market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and its impact on hog prices will change from positive to neutral - negative [35]. 3.5 Import End - In August 2025, the pork import volume was about 80,000 tons, a decrease of about 7,600 tons compared with the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic hog prices is relatively limited [38].

Report Information - Report Date: September 19, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, in September, the planned sales volume of sample breeding enterprises was 25.7 million heads, a 3.92% increase from the actual output in August, and the daily average increase was 7.39%. The slaughter volume may continue to increase significantly, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens remains high. In the long term, the pig slaughter before the Spring Festival may still show a slight increase. On the demand side, the price difference between fat and standard pigs has slightly widened, the fattening cost is still low, and the current second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. The overall supply - demand is loose, and the price is still weak. In the futures market, the supply of pigs before the Spring Festival is expected to increase slightly. Although the supply - demand margin of the 2511 and 2601 contracts may improve, they are mainly weak due to the current large spot supply pressure [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 18th, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened lower, then rose and fell back, and fluctuated downwards, closing with a negative line. The highest was 12,965 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,820 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,830 yuan/ton, a 1.72% decrease from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 13,438 lots to 247,934 lots [6] - **Spot Market**: On the 18th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 12.78 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.17 yuan/kg from the previous day [6] 2. Industry News - As of September 11, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 54 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 45 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 175.8 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 63 yuan/head [8][10] 3. Data Overview - **15kg Piglet Price**: In the week of September 11, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 394 yuan/head, a decrease of 32 yuan/head from the previous week [13] - **Price Difference between Fat and Standard Pigs**: In the week of September 11, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.13 yuan/jin, a weekly decrease of 0.06 yuan/jin [13] - **Fattening Cost**: The cost of fattening from 110 kg to 140 kg was 13.18 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.24 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening from 125 kg to 150 kg was 13.52 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.17 yuan/kg from the previous week [13] - **Slaughtering Enterprise Operating Rate**: In the week of September 11, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 31.40%, a 0.13 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 4.15 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The weekly operating rate fluctuated between 31.20% and 31.71% [13] - **National Average Slaughter Weight**: As of the week of September 11, the national average slaughter weight of pigs was 128.32 kg, a 0.09 - kg increase from the previous week, a 0.07% increase month - on - month, and a 2.36 - kg increase from the same period last year, a 1.84% increase year - on - year [13]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Pig Daily Report" [2] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The overall supply pressure in the pig market remains high, and the subsequent spot prices are expected to be weak. Futures prices are also under pressure and are expected to trend downward [4][7] - The decline in futures prices is mainly due to the expected supply pressure, and the far - month contracts are affected by capacity changes. Although the current price is low, there is still a certain downward pressure [7] Group 4: Price and Profit Data Summary Spot Prices - The average spot price of pigs today is 12.68 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from yesterday. Prices in various regions have generally declined [4] Futures Prices - Futures prices of various contracts have mostly declined, such as LH01 down 180 to 13330, LH03 down 150 to 12855 [4] Piglet and Sow Prices - Piglet prices are 259 yuan, down 32 from last week; sow prices are 1590 yuan, down 2 from last week [4] Breeding Profits - Self - breeding and self - raising profit is 16.84 yuan/head, down 15.39 from yesterday; profit from purchasing piglets is - 161.93 yuan/head, down 13.53 from yesterday [4] Contract Spreads - Spreads between different contracts have changed, such as LH7 - 9 down 150 to 1165, LH9 - 1 up 180 to - 345 [4] Slaughter Data - The slaughter volume is 149450 heads, an increase of 842 from yesterday [4] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short near - month contracts on rallies - Arbitrage: Reverse spread on LH15 - Options: Hold off on trading [8]

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 09 月 16 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，15 日生猪主力 2511 合约低开后震荡走高，尾盘收阳，最高 13290 元/吨，最低 13120 元/吨，收盘报 13275 元/ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs is expected to adjust weakly and fluctuately. The supply of live pigs is likely to increase gradually by December, and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously under sufficient supply. If the price weakness continues, a negative cycle may form, and the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year. One can consider conducting a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract at an appropriate time [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: Affected by the weak performance of the spot market, the futures price fluctuated weakly this week. On September 12, 2025, the benchmark base difference of the main contract was 245 yuan/ton, compared with 745 yuan/ton on September 5 [2][3]. - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [5]. - **月间价差变化**: The inter - month spread fluctuated and adjusted [8][11]. 2. Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, and the pig price fluctuated weakly [14]. - **区域价差**: The regional price difference was relatively reasonable [16]. - **肥标价差**: The spread between fat and standard pigs fluctuated weakly, which would increase the enthusiasm of farmers to reduce weight and sell pigs [18]. - **鲜销与毛白价差**: The terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - performance of pork was average. The spread between fresh and frozen No. 2 meat weakened, and the cost - performance of frozen products was lower than that of fresh products [22]. - **养殖利润**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit still existed, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was slightly in the red [24]. - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight increased this week [26]. 3. Production Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the national inventory of fertile sows was 40.42 million at the end of July, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.0%. According to Yongyi Consulting, the inventory of fertile sows in its sample 1 increased by 0.02% month - on - month in August, compared with 0.14% in the previous month. According to My steel, the inventory of fertile sows in its sample large - scale enterprises decreased by 0.83% month - on - month in August, compared with an increase of 0.01% in the previous month [28]. - **母猪淘汰情况**: The price of culled sows weakened this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in August, and the enthusiasm for capacity reduction in the market increased [30]. - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In August, the number of healthy newborn piglets increased by 0.15% month - on - month (the previous value was + 0.06%), corresponding to an overall fluctuating increase in the number of slaughtered live pigs in February next year [32]. - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a weak trend, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was weak [34]. 4. Slaughter End - **屠宰量与屠宰利润等**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In July, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 31.66 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.3% and a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. The frozen product market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and its impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral and bearish [36]. 5. Import End - In July 2025, the pork import volume was about 87,600 tons, a decrease of about 2,400 tons compared with the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 09 月 11 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 ＃summary＃ 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 每日报告 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，10 日生猪主力 2511 合约小幅低开后震荡走高，尾盘收阳，最高 13400 元/吨，最低 13210 元/吨，收盘报 13315 ...