11月份，我国食糖进口量为44万吨，环比减少31万吨或41.3%，同比下滑18.2%。总体上，供应充足，现 货走弱，拖累期货市场，预计后期维持弱势运行。 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 白糖产业日报 2025-12-23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5155 | 29 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 508950 | -4117 | | 期货市场 | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 4479 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -86192 | -666 | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ | 622 | -868 | | | | | 吨) 进口巴糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | 4067 | 72 进口加工估算价(配额内):泰国糖(日,元/ 吨) | 4115 | 73 | | 现货 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The price of raw sugar lacks the momentum to rebound due to the overall suppression of increased production, although the market's concerns have eased as the decline in the sugar - making ratio is relatively large. The domestic spot price continues to decline, with average trading volume, and the downstream demand is in a seasonal downturn. It is expected that the sugar sales progress will slow down later. However, the cost support for the futures price is gradually emerging, and the price is expected to fluctuate mainly [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5457 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 31; the main contract position is 420,072 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 2776. The number of warehouse receipts is 8196, with a month - on - month decrease of 117; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 72,687 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 1619. The total forecast of effective warehouse receipts is 0, with no month - on - month change [2]. Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4166 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 29; that of Thai sugar is 4223 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 29. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5282 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 37; that of Thai sugar is 5356 yuan/ton. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5730 yuan/ton, with no change; in Nanning, it is 5750 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 20; in Liuzhou, it is 5800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10 [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1480 thousand hectares, with an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, with a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, with an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, with an increase of 86.92 million tons. The national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, with an increase of 7.47 percentage points. The monthly import volume of sugar is 550,000 tons, with a decrease of 280,000 tons. The total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 324.58 million tons, with a decrease of 49.82 million tons. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1367 yuan/ton, with an increase of 4; outside the quota (50% tariff), it is 251 yuan/ton, with an increase of 12. The price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1310 yuan/ton, with an increase of 4; outside the quota (50% tariff), it is 177 yuan/ton, with an increase of 12 [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 45.41 million tons, with an increase of 4.41 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1775.8 million tons, with a decrease of 20.8 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 9.82%, with an increase of 1.97 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is also 9.82%, with an increase of 1.97 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 8.15%, with an increase of 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.17%, with a decrease of 0.01 percentage points [2]. Industry News - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in September 2025, China's refined sugar output was 539,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.4%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative output of refined sugar was 1.0984 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.8%. The ICE raw sugar futures closed lower on Wednesday, hitting the lowest level since June. The market expects the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season to increase. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on ICE fell 0.14 cents, or 0.90%, to settle at 15.10 cents per pound. According to the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association Unica, in the second half of September 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 40.86 million tons of sugarcane, a year - on - year increase of 5.18%; the sugar production was 3.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.76%, and the sugar - making ratio was 51.17%, higher than 47.73% in the same period of the previous year [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic northern sugar mills have started crushing in small quantities, and the sugar production in the new year is expected to increase slightly, with spot prices weakening steadily. The control of imported syrup from Thailand has been relaxed, and the quantity of syrup is expected to rise slightly later. The sugar sales progress in Guangxi is slow and is squeezed by processed sugar. However, the typhoon has caused sugarcane lodging in Guangxi, providing short - term support to the market, but upward movement is restricted by sufficient supply. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5479 yuan/ton, up 1; the main contract position is 417,045 lots, down 10,429; the number of sugar warehouse receipts is 8,981, down 483; the net long position of the top 20 futures is - 81,305 lots, down 332; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0 [2] 现货市场 - The import - processing estimated price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4,454 yuan/ton, up 29; that of Thai sugar (within quota) is 4,397 yuan/ton, up 28; the import - estimated price of Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 5,657 yuan/ton, up 37; that of Thai sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 5,584 yuan/ton, up 38. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,810 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning is 5,780 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou is 5,890 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 上游情况 - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60; the sown area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86. The national cumulative sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, up 5.49; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 999.89 million tons, up 44.98. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, down 81.43; the national sugar sales rate is 89.98%, up 1. The monthly import volume of sugar is 830,000 tons, up 90,000; the monthly sugar export volume from Brazil is 374.4 million tons, up 15.03 [2] 产业情况 - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current Liuzhou sugar price (within quota) is 1,226 yuan/ton, down 36; that of Thai sugar (within quota) is 1,283 yuan/ton, down 35. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current Liuzhou sugar price (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 23 yuan/ton, down 44; that of Thai sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 96 yuan/ton, down 45 [2] 下游情况 - The monthly output of refined sugar is 45.41 million tons, up 4.41; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1,775.8 million tons, down 20.8 [2] 期权市场 - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.35%, up 0.09; that of at - the - money put options is 8.35%, up 0.09. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 5.82%, up 0.14; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.39%, down 0.01 [2] 行业消息 - As of September 23, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 125,628 lots, an increase of 19,284 lots from the previous week. Long positions were 173,035 lots, a decrease of 2,211 lots from the previous week, and short positions were 298,663 lots, an increase of 17,073 lots from the previous week. As of the week of September 24, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 76, down from 85 the previous week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 3.1039 million tons, down from 3.2827 million tons the previous week [2] 提示关注 - Currently, there is no news today [2]

数据来源第三方(同花顺、wind)，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 明显利好驱动，预计震荡偏弱。操作上，建议观望为主。 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 白糖产业日报 2025-09-23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5444 | -8 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 474011 | 17181 | | 期货市场 | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - International sugar production in Brazil is accelerating, with an 18.21% year - on - year increase in sugar production in the second half of August 2025. In China, sugar imports in August 2025 increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year. With the end of mid - autumn stocking, the upcoming start of sugar mills in the north, and a projected slight increase in sugar production in the new year, the spot price is expected to weaken steadily. There is no obvious short - term positive driver, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5452 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the main contract position is 456,830 lots, up 6,523 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts is 10,315, down 49; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 75,201 lots, down 1,925 lots; the total effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,433 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,630 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan. The estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4,392 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,576 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan. The spot prices of white sugar in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou are 5,820 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan), 5,800 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), and 5,900 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan) respectively [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The sugar - cane planting area in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 999.98 million tons, an increase of 44.98 million tons; the national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 89.59%, an increase of 1%. The monthly sugar import volume is 830,000 tons, an increase of 90,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 3.744 million tons, an increase of 150,300 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar is 410,000 tons, an increase of 73,000 tons; the monthly production of soft drinks is 1.7966 million tons, a decrease of 46,200 tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.9%, an increase of 0.32%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 8.91%, an increase of 0.33%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 6.32%, an increase of 0.82%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.43%, an increase of 0.16% [2]. Industry News - As of September 16, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 106,344 lots, a decrease of 33,266 lots from the previous week. Long positions were 175,246 lots, an increase of 5,166 lots; short positions were 281,590 lots, a decrease of 28,100 lots. As of the week of September 17, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 85, an increase of 1 from the previous week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 3.2827 million tons, an increase of 98,700 tons from the previous week. In the second half of August 2025, the sugar - cane crushing volume in central - southern Brazil was 50.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.686%; sugar production was 3.87 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.21%. In August 2025, China's sugar imports were 830,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 90,000 tons or 12.16%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [2]. Viewpoint Summary - With the end of mid - autumn stocking, the upcoming start of sugar mills in the north, and a projected slight increase in sugar production in the new year, the spot price is expected to weaken steadily. There is no obvious short - term positive driver, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Internationally, the production prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia are good, Brazil's sugar production increased in the first half of August, and demand shows signs of improvement, so the raw sugar price continues to fluctuate at a low level [2] - Domestically, the profit window for out - of - quota imports remains open, the import pressure is released, the sugar import volume in July increased significantly month - on - month, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past decade, and August - September is still the peak period. Beet sugar will start to be squeezed in September, leading to a temporary increase in supply. On the demand side, the pre - holiday stocking for the Double Festivals will boost consumption. In terms of inventory, due to the good production and sales progress in the early stage, the inventory pressure is not large, but the increase in the quantity of processed sugar has significantly slowed down the current de - stocking process. For new crops, the new - season sugar production is expected to remain at a high level in the past four years. Overall, factors such as a significant increase in imports, the upcoming opening of northern sugar mills, and high - expected new - season production will suppress the sugar price trend. It is recommended to hold short positions and set stop - losses to control risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar was 5,599 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the main contract position was 356,276 lots, a decrease of 2,505 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 13,202 sheets, a decrease of 232 sheets; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 20,766 lots, a decrease of 3,204 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast was 6 sheets, a decrease of 1 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,552 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 5,786 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was not provided, and that of Thai sugar was not provided. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan; in Nanning was 5,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; in Liuzhou was 5,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production was 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons; the national industrial sugar inventory was 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate was 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume was 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil were 359.37 million tons, an increase of 23.47 million tons. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,278 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 1,288 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan. The price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) for Brazilian sugar was 44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 58 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 41 million tons, an increase of 7.3 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1,796.6 million tons, a decrease of 46.2 million tons [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 8.68%, an increase of 0.41 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options was 8.68%, an increase of 0.41 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility was 6.81%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 6.41%, unchanged [2] 3.7 Industry News - The Indian government announced that in the 2025/26 season, it will allow the use of sugar - cane juice, syrup, and various molasses to produce ethanol without quantity restrictions. ICE was closed on Monday. On Tuesday, the sugar 2601 contract closed down 0.05% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The international raw sugar price maintains a low - level oscillating trend due to the good production prospects in major Asian sugar - producing countries and concerns about the sugar content of Brazilian sugarcane in the 2025/26 season. In the domestic market, the profit window for out - of - quota imports remains open, and the import volume in July increased significantly month - on - month, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past decade. The beet sugar will start to be squeezed in September, increasing the supply. The demand is expected to increase during the upcoming double - festival stocking period. The inventory pressure is not large, but the de - stocking process has slowed down. The new - season sugar production is expected to be at a high level in the past four years. These factors will suppress the medium - term price trend. It is recommended to try short - selling at high prices and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5620 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the main contract position is 363151 lots, down 2979 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 14906, down 409, and the net long position of the top 20 futures is - 14219 lots, down 295 lots. The total number of effective warehouse receipt forecasts is 1, unchanged [2]. 现货市场 - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian and Thai sugar within the quota is 4540 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan. The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5769 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan, and that of Thai sugar is 5755 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan. The spot prices of white sugar in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou are 5845 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan), 5920 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), and 6020 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) respectively [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The planting area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares. The national cumulative sugar production is 1116.21 tons, an increase of 5.49 tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 811.38 tons, an increase of 86.92 tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 tons, a decrease of 81.43 tons, and the sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47%. The monthly sugar import volume is 740000 tons, an increase of 320000 tons, and the monthly sugar export volume of Brazil is 359.37 tons, an increase of 23.47 tons [2]. Industrial Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1330 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan; outside the quota (50% tariff), it is 101 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan. The price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1330 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan; outside the quota (50% tariff), it is 115 yuan/ton, an increase of 73 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 41 tons, an increase of 7.3 tons, and the monthly output of soft drinks is 1796.6 tons, a decrease of 46.2 tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 9.15%, an increase of 0.85%; that of put options is 9.18%, an increase of 0.88%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 6.47%, down 1.23%, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.18%, an increase of 0.05% [2]. Industry News - The Brazilian National Supply Company revised down the sugar production forecast for the 2025/26 season by 3.1% to 44.5 million tons due to adverse weather affecting sugarcane planting. On Tuesday, the ICE raw sugar October contract rose 0.18%, and on Wednesday, the domestic sugar 2601 contract fell 0.67% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, Asian major sugar - producing countries have a good production outlook with a loose global supply expectation. However, there are concerns about Brazil's sugar - cane sugar content in the 2025/26 season, and demand shows improvement signs, so the raw sugar price maintains a low - level oscillating trend. Domestically, the profit window for out - of - quota imports remains open, and the import pressure is released. The sugar import volume in July increased significantly month - on - month, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past decade, and the peak will continue from August to September. Beet sugar will start being squeezed in September, increasing the supply. On the demand side, the upcoming double - festival stocking is expected to boost demand. The inventory pressure is not significant due to good previous sales, but the increase in processed sugar has slowed down the de - stocking process. The new - season production is expected to be at a high level in the past four years. Technically, the sugar 2601 contract dropped sharply at noon, hitting a one - week low. Overall, the current domestic sugar inventory pressure is not large, and the double - festival stocking expectation provides support for the sugar price. But the significant increase in imports, the upcoming northern sugar - mill squeezing, and the high - expected new - season production will limit the medium - term upward price space. It is recommended to try short - selling at high prices and control risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5632 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan; the main contract position is 366,130 lots, down 1,534 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts is 15,315, down 70; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 13,924 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1, unchanged; the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4,540 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar (within quota) is 4,540 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 5,769 yuan/ton; the estimated import price of Thai sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 5,755 yuan/ton; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,860 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning, it is 5,950 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Liuzhou, it is 6,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares; the national cumulative sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons; the national cumulative sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume is 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil are 3.5937 million tons, an increase of 0.2347 million tons [2] 产业情况 - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (within quota) is 1,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar (within quota) is 1,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 101 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 115 yuan/ton, an increase of 73 yuan [2] 下游情况 - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point [2] 期权市场 - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.3%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 8.3%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.75%, an increase of 0.22 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.13%, unchanged [2] 行业消息 - Brazil's foreign trade secretariat export data shows that Brazil exported 2,813,944.72 tons of sugar in the first four weeks of August, with an average daily export volume of 175,871.55 tons, a 1% decrease compared to the average daily export volume in August last year. On Monday, the ICE raw sugar October contract closed down 0.3%. On Tuesday, the sugar 2601 contract closed down 0.93% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [2] Report's Core View - The international raw sugar price will experience short - term low - level wide - range fluctuations. In the domestic market, the window for extra - quota profit remains open, leading to a significant increase in sugar imports in July. Beet sugar will start being squeezed in September, increasing supply. The demand is expected to rise due to the summer and upcoming double - festival stocking. The inventory pressure is not significant, but the de - stocking process has slowed down. The new - season sugar production is expected to remain at a high level in the past four years. Overall, the domestic market will show short - term fluctuations, and the operation suggestion is to wait and see [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5688 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 358,685 lots, up 14,946 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts is 15,751, down 493; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 19,655 lots, down 1995 lots; the total number of valid warehouse receipt forecasts is 1, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4491 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4509 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5706 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5729 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5855 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning is 5970 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Liuzhou is 6030 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sugar - cane planting area in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, up 86.92 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, down 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points. The monthly sugar import volume is 740,000 tons, up 320,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 359.37 million tons, up 23.47 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year increase in refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year increase in soft - drink production is 2.9%, down 0.1 percentage point [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.09%, down 0.16 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 8.06%, down 0.2 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 8.57%, up 0.27 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.38%, up 0.05 percentage points [2] Industry News - As of the week ending August 20, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 70, down from 76 the previous week. On Wednesday, the ICE October raw sugar contract rose 1.72%. On Thursday, the SR2601 sugar contract rose 0.51% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, the raw sugar price will experience wide - range fluctuations at a low level in the short term due to good production prospects in major Asian sugar - producing countries and a loose global supply outlook, along with concerns about the sugar content of Brazilian sugarcane in the 2025/26 season and signs of improved demand [2]. - Domestically, the profit window for out - of - quota imports remains open, leading to a significant increase in sugar imports in July. Beet sugar will start being pressed in September, increasing supply. Demand is expected to rise with the upcoming double - festival stocking. The inventory reduction process has slowed down due to an increase in processed sugar. The new - season sugar production is expected to be at a high level in the past four years. Overall, the domestic market will fluctuate in the short term, and the recommended operation is to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5,676 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the main contract position is 343,739 hands, up 5,283 hands; the number of sugar warehouse receipts is 16,244 sheets, down 242 sheets; the net long position of the top 20 futures is - 17,660 hands; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1 sheet [2]. 现货市场 - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,491 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,509 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar out - of - quota (50% tariff) is 5,706 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar is 5,729 yuan/ton. The spot price of white granulated sugar in Kunming is 5,855 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning is 5,970 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Liuzhou is 6,030 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sugar - cane planting area in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, up 86.92 million tons; the national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, down 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume is 740,000 tons, up 320,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 359.37 million tons, up 23.47 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft - drink production is 2.9%, down 0.1 percentage point [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.25%, down 0.08 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 8.26%, down 0.08 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 8.3%, up 0.17 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.33%, up 0.05 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The average sugar - cane yield per hectare in the central - southern region of Brazil in July was 81.3 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.6% [2]. - On Tuesday, the ICE raw - sugar October contract rose 0.37%. On Wednesday, the sugar 2601 contract rose 0.05% [2].