2025.09. 16 本文字数：1930，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 潘寅茹 每年9月第三个星期一是日本传统的"敬老节"。在9月15日，日本政府最新发布的关于该国老年人口的最新数据又一次预警日本的人口危机。 根据日本总务省在今年"敬老节"前公布的最新统计数据，目前日本共有65岁及以上老年人3619万人，占日本全国总人口比例达29.4%，创历史新高。 29.4%的老龄化率，使得日本再度成为全球老龄化程度最严重国家。联合国数据显示，在老龄化方面，意大利（25.1%）、德国（23.7%）位居第二和第 三。 近年来，日益加深的高龄少子化问题困扰着历届日本政府。据日本国立社会保障与人口问题研究所推算，到2050年，日本65岁及以上老年人口占比或将 上升至37.1%。 65岁以上就业者占总就业人口的比例为13.7%（来源：日本政府报告） 65岁以上就业群体创新高 日本政府今年4月修订后的《高龄者雇佣安定法》明确要求企业改善高龄员工的工作条件，谨防随年龄增长而上升的工伤风险。日本政府此前的调查显 示，大多数60岁及以上的日本人希望在退休后继续工作，原因包括经济保障、保持活跃、维持社会联系等。 上述调查还显示， ...

在日本，最新与老龄化相关的两项数据创新高。 每年9月第三个星期一是日本传统的"敬老节"。在9月15日，日本政府最新发布的关于该国老年人口的最 新数据又一次预警日本的人口危机。 根据日本总务省在今年"敬老节"前公布的最新统计数据，目前日本共有65岁及以上老年人3619万人，占 日本全国总人口比例达29.4%，创历史新高。 值得注意的是，尽管今年数据显示日本65岁以上老年人较去年减少5万人，但由于同期日本整体人口相 较去年出现下滑，因此，65岁及以上老年人占日本总人口比例上升0.1个百分点，从去年的29.3%上升至 29.4%。 按年龄层划分，70岁以上老年人有2901万人，75岁以上人口为2124万人，80岁以上有1289万人，上述三 个年龄段均较上年有所增加。目前，75岁及以上老年人口占比已达17.2%。同期，日本厚生劳动省的数 据显示，截至9月1日，日本境内的百岁及以上老人已逼近10万，约为9.97万人，较上一年增加4644人。 此外，在3619万65岁及以上老年群体中，65岁以上老年人就业人数达930万人，比前一年增加16万人， 这一数据已连续21年刷新纪录。由此，65岁以上就业者占总就业人口的比例为13 ...

彭博社9月11日报道，2026年美国拟征收的1%汇款税叠加特朗普政府严格的移民政策， 将双重冲击拉美侨汇流入，其中中美洲国家因经济高度依赖汇款且美国汇款占比高而 受到最大冲击，墨西哥因接收汇款规模最大而成为绝对金额受影响最严重的国家。 2024年美国无证移民向哥伦比亚、墨西哥、萨尔瓦多和危地马拉汇款218亿美元，建筑 和专业服务业是无证移民汇款主要来源。分析师指出，若由接收方承担全部税费，对 汇款量的影响相对较小，美国向四国汇款量平均仅下降0.38%。但结合特朗普政府更严 格的移民政策，可能加剧汇款缩减。预计危地马拉损失9590万美元，萨尔瓦多缩减 3010万美元，哥伦比亚减少2030万美元，墨西哥虽仅下降0.33%但其绝对金额高达2.078 亿美元。移民结构显示，墨西哥以430万无证移民居首，中美洲国家无证移民比例更高 使其更脆弱，危地马拉与萨尔瓦多各有85万无证移民，其汇款占家庭收入依赖度更 深。 （原标题：2026年美国汇款税将冲击中美洲侨汇流入） ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that despite the Trump administration's efforts to revitalize manufacturing through economic policies, U.S. manufacturers are significantly reducing jobs [1] - In August, the U.S. manufacturing sector lost 12,000 jobs, and since April, a total of 42,000 jobs have been cut in this industry [1] - The job losses are attributed to three main actions by the Trump administration: imposing new tariffs, a hardline stance on immigration, and the "Big and Beautiful" bill supported by the Republican Party, which negatively impacts renewable energy companies [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that by 2025, the total number of jobs in U.S. manufacturing is expected to decrease by 33,000, with layoffs concentrated in durable goods sectors such as automotive, home appliances, and electronics [1] - The overall hiring pace in the U.S. job market has slowed significantly, which is occurring against the backdrop of manufacturing layoffs [1] - The uncertainty surrounding the scale and scope of tariffs has left manufacturing companies in a passive position, leading to increased costs and reduced hiring willingness [2] Group 3 - The ongoing legal challenges against the Trump administration's tariffs further exacerbate uncertainty in the manufacturing sector, making it difficult for companies to plan for the future and make investment decisions [2] - The crackdown on immigration by the Trump administration is also impacting manufacturing recruitment, as immigrants have been a crucial labor source for certain manufacturing sectors [3] - The reduction in labor supply from immigration cuts may drive companies to adopt more automated and capital-intensive manufacturing processes [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the biggest risk to the US economy remains "quasi-stagflation," driven by the dual impact of tariffs and immigration policies, which suppress both demand and supply in the short term and may lead to structural inflation in the medium term [1][2] - Recent data indicates that the US is entering a "high tariff, high interest rate" era, with tariffs on imports from India raised to 50% and tariff revenues expected to exceed $300 billion this year, potentially contributing around $4 trillion in the future [4][6][10] - The tightening of immigration policies is leading to a decline in labor supply, which is expected to pressure economic expansion and reduce consumer demand, with estimates suggesting a potential GDP growth decline of 0.81 percentage points by 2025 [10][11] Group 2 - Recent economic and financial data show characteristics of "quasi-stagflation," including a divergence between consumer confidence and inflation expectations, with consumer confidence declining while inflation expectations rise [12][13] - Manufacturing costs are increasing while investment willingness remains low, indicating a combination of rising costs and subdued investment, which aligns with "quasi-stagflation" characteristics [18][20] - Bond market signals indicate rising implied inflation expectations alongside declining real interest rates, suggesting that investors are anticipating lower real returns while seeking higher inflation compensation [22][24] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve may lean towards interest rate cuts in response to rising employment pressures, but the persistence of inflation may complicate this process, leading to a more gradual and less significant reduction than the market anticipates [25][26] - Historical examples of "stagflation" highlight that it is not merely a cyclical phenomenon but results from a combination of policy, structural, and market expectations, with current US challenges including high fiscal deficits, elevated tariffs, and tightening immigration policies [26]

Group 1 - Over 1.2 million immigrants have left the U.S. labor market from January to July this year, influenced by the Trump administration's immigration policies [1][3] - Immigrants account for approximately 20% of the U.S. labor force, with significant contributions in agriculture (45%), construction (30%), and service industries (24%) [3] - Immigration enforcement actions have led to disruptions in various sectors, particularly agriculture, resulting in delayed harvests and wasted crops [3][5] Group 2 - The construction industry has seen job losses in nearly half of major metropolitan areas, with the Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario area losing 7,200 jobs and the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale area losing 6,200 jobs [5] - The healthcare sector may also face challenges due to a reduction in immigrant workers, as approximately 43% of home healthcare workers are immigrants [5][6] - The impact of immigration enforcement on labor supply has hindered construction contractors from hiring capable workers, affecting overall job creation [5]

Group 1 - Over 1.2 million immigrants have left the U.S. labor market from January to July this year, influenced by the Trump administration's immigration policies [1] - Immigrants account for approximately 20% of the U.S. labor force, with significant contributions in agriculture (45%), construction (30%), and services (24%) [2] - Immigration enforcement actions have disrupted many farms and businesses, leading to delays in crop harvesting and waste of produce [2] Group 2 - The construction industry has seen job losses in nearly half of U.S. metropolitan areas, with the most severe losses in Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario (7,200 jobs) and Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale (6,200 jobs) [4] - The healthcare sector may also be impacted, as about 43% of home care workers are immigrants, raising concerns about staffing shortages in hospitals and nursing homes [4]

Core Insights - The analysis by the Pew Research Center indicates that over 1.2 million immigrants have left the U.S. labor market from January to July this year, influenced by the immigration policies of the Trump administration [1][3] - Immigrants constitute approximately 20% of the U.S. labor force, with significant contributions in agriculture (45%), construction (30%), and services (24%) [3][4] Labor Market Impact - The cessation of large-scale immigration has had a "huge impact" on job creation capabilities in the U.S., with immigrants typically contributing to at least 50% of employment growth [4] - Enforcement actions against immigrants have led to disruptions in various sectors, particularly agriculture and construction, causing delays in crop harvesting and job losses [4][7] Sector-Specific Effects - The construction industry has seen job losses in nearly half of U.S. metropolitan areas, with the Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario area losing 7,200 jobs and the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale area losing 6,200 jobs [7] - The healthcare sector is also likely to be affected, as approximately 43% of home care workers are immigrants, raising concerns about staffing shortages in hospitals and nursing homes [7]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has unilaterally canceled $4.9 billion in foreign aid approved by Congress, facing opposition from both Democrats and some Republicans, which intensifies the struggle over spending control [1][2][3] Group 1: Foreign Aid Cancellation - Trump announced he would not utilize the $4.9 billion in foreign aid, which was designated for international projects, UN peacekeeping, and overseas democracy promotion, including $3.2 billion from the U.S. Agency for International Development [2][3] - The White House Office of Management and Budget claims Trump has the authority to freeze funds for 45 days, arguing that any legal challenges to this action will fail [2][3] - This action is based on a rarely used method called "pocket veto," allowing the president to effectively let the funds expire if Congress does not respond within the 45-day period [3] Group 2: Legal Challenges and Trade Policy - A federal appeals court ruled that Trump did not have the authority to impose tariffs on multiple countries, although tariffs under the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 remain unaffected [4][5] - Trump plans to appeal this ruling to the Supreme Court, asserting that tariffs are essential for supporting American workers and manufacturing [4][5] - Legal experts suggest that if the Supreme Court hears the case, its decision could significantly impact U.S. trade policy and the legal basis for executive power [5] Group 3: Immigration Policy - On the same day, a federal judge temporarily blocked Trump's administration from rapidly deporting undocumented immigrants without a court hearing, citing the need for due process [6] - The ruling highlights the ongoing legal disputes surrounding Trump's strict immigration policies, which have faced numerous challenges since he took office [6]

Group 1 - The Rwandan government announced the arrival of 7 illegal immigrants deported from the United States as part of an agreement signed with the U.S. to accept up to 250 such individuals [1][2] - The first group of "screened immigrants" arrived in mid-August, with 3 expressing a desire to return to their home countries and 4 wishing to stay in Rwanda [2] - Rwanda will provide support for resettled immigrants, including labor training, healthcare, and accommodation, to help them rebuild their lives [2] Group 2 - The Trump administration has implemented strict immigration policies, including the deportation of illegal immigrants to third countries, which has sparked legal challenges and controversies [3] - Uganda has also agreed to accept immigrants who do not qualify to stay in the U.S., indicating a broader trend of third-country agreements for deported individuals [4] Group 3 - The U.S. is experiencing a "net outflow" of immigrants for the first time in decades, with a decrease of nearly 1.5 million foreign-born individuals from January to June this year [9] - The total number of immigrants in the U.S. has dropped from 53.3 million to 51.9 million within six months, raising concerns about potential negative economic impacts due to labor shortages [9][10] - The decline in immigration is attributed to strict enforcement policies, which have created a climate of fear among immigrant families, leading some to voluntarily leave the country [10][11]