中信证券研报表示，绿色液体燃料包括绿醇、绿氨和SAF等，是航运、航空、化工等领域脱碳的主要抓 手之一，受益于碳税等政策加码以及持续降本，正驶入发展快车道，未来5年有望迎来近10倍增长，远 期市场空间达万亿元。国内厂商凭借丰富低廉的绿电资源，完备的设备供应和下游配套体系优势，加速 完善绿色液体燃料产业布局和商业模式，实现跨越式发展。建议重点关注绿色氢氨醇一体化生产厂商， 以及电解槽等核心设备供应商。 ...

中信证券研报表示，绿色液体燃料包括绿醇、绿氨和SAF等，是航运、航空、化工等领域脱碳的主要抓 手之一，受益于碳税等政策加码以及持续降本，正驶入发展快车道，未来5年有望迎来近10倍增长，远 期市场空间达万亿元。国内厂商凭借丰富低廉的绿电资源，完备的设备供应和下游配套体系优势，加速 完善绿色液体燃料产业布局和商业模式，实现跨越式发展。建议重点关注绿色氢氨醇一体化生产厂商， 以及电解槽等核心设备供应商。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the environmental sector, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The green liquid fuel market, particularly green ammonia and green methanol, is gaining traction due to supportive policies and market demand. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other agencies, has emphasized the development of these fuels as part of the clean energy transition [18][19]. - As of the end of 2024, there are 119 green ammonia projects and 165 green methanol projects in China, with respective production capacities of 20.17 million tons/year and 52.57 million tons/year. Most projects are in early stages, indicating potential for capacity release [22][28]. - The report highlights the significant role of green ammonia in the energy system, particularly in coal power plant modifications, with a target of 10% co-firing by 2024 [19]. - The report suggests that the environmental sector will maintain high growth due to increasing demands for energy efficiency and resource recycling, with a focus on water and waste incineration sectors as stable revenue generators [53]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The environmental sector underperformed the broader market, with a decline of 0.61% as of December 12, 2025, compared to a 0.34% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [10][13]. Industry Dynamics - Recent policies include a notification from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the People's Bank of China to support green factory construction through green finance [33]. - The ecological environment ministry is seeking public opinion on emergency control standards for water pollution, aiming to enhance environmental emergency response capabilities [35]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like Huanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing market reforms and stable cash flows [53].

绿色液体燃料主要分为绿色甲醇（绿醇）、绿氨、可持续航空燃油（SAF）等，具备零碳或超低碳排 放、高能量密度、易于储运等特点，已成为航运、航空、化工等多行业脱碳的重要抓手。 该机构表示，绿色液体燃料作为航运、航空、化工等领域脱碳的主要抓手之一，受益于碳税等政策加码 以及持续降本，正驶入发展快车道，未来5年有望迎来近10倍增长，远期市场空间达万亿元。国内厂商 凭借丰富低廉的绿电资源，完备的设备供应和下游配套体系优势，加速完善绿色液体燃料产业布局和商 业模式，实现跨越式发展。重点关注：1）绿色氢氨醇一体化生产厂商；2）电解槽等核心设备供应商。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 中信证券认为，随着国内外清洁能源体系和脱碳政策逐步完善，在欧洲航运碳关税机制和长期净零框架 目标的指引下（尽管IMO净零框架表决延迟1年，但不改航运业绿色转向趋势），并考虑绿色化工等领 域原料替代需求，绿色液体燃料需求正逐步从"潜在"向"刚性"转化。测算2025年全球绿醇、绿氨、SAF 潜在需求或分别达300万吨、250万吨、250万吨左右，2030年有望增至3600万吨、2300万吨、1100万吨 左右，未来5年或分别增长11倍、9.2倍、3.5倍 ...

Core Viewpoint - Green liquid fuels, including green methanol, green ammonia, and SAF, are key drivers for decarbonization in shipping, aviation, and chemical industries, with potential for nearly tenfold growth in the next five years and a long-term market space reaching trillions of yuan [1] Industry Summary - The growth of green liquid fuels is supported by increased carbon tax policies and ongoing cost reductions, positioning the industry for rapid development [1] - Domestic manufacturers are leveraging abundant and inexpensive green electricity resources, comprehensive equipment supply, and downstream support systems to accelerate the development of the green liquid fuel industry and business models [1] Company Focus - It is recommended to pay close attention to integrated production manufacturers of green hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol, as well as core equipment suppliers such as electrolyzers [1]

Core Viewpoint - Green liquid fuels, including green methanol, green ammonia, and SAF, are key drivers for decarbonization in shipping, aviation, and chemical industries, benefiting from increased carbon tax policies and ongoing cost reductions, with potential for nearly tenfold growth in the next five years and a long-term market space reaching trillions [1] Industry Summary - The green liquid fuel sector is entering a rapid development phase, supported by favorable policies and technological advancements [1] - Domestic manufacturers are leveraging abundant and inexpensive green electricity resources, complete equipment supply, and downstream support systems to accelerate the development of the green liquid fuel industry and business models [1] Investment Focus - It is recommended to pay close attention to integrated production manufacturers of green hydrogen and ammonia, as well as core equipment suppliers such as electrolyzers [1]

Core Viewpoint - JinWind Technology (金风科技) has successfully launched its green methanol production project, marking a significant step in its transition from wind energy solutions to broader green energy solutions [1] Group 1: Company Developments - JinWind Technology's stock rose over 5% in early trading, currently at 15.06 HKD with a trading volume of 102 million HKD [1] - The company has successfully completed the first feed of the gasifier for its 500,000-ton green methanol project in Inner Mongolia, achieving stable operation of the gasification unit and completing the gas connection for the methanol synthesis unit [1] - The project is part of the first batch of national green liquid fuel technology research and industrialization pilot projects announced by the National Energy Administration, with an annual capacity of 250,000 tons planned for the first phase [1] Group 2: Market Position and Future Outlook - Guosen Securities views JinWind Technology as a leading global wind power solution provider, collaborating with shipping companies like Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd to promote the transition to green energy [1] - The successful production of green methanol capacity lays a solid foundation for the company's strategic shift towards green energy solutions [1] - The company is expected to capitalize on the long-term growth opportunities in the global wind power market while using green methanol to create a second growth curve, opening up vast opportunities in the global green energy market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Green liquid fuels are considered "ready-to-use" low-carbon energy sources that can easily integrate into the existing energy system, making them crucial for decarbonization in hard-to-electrify sectors like aviation and shipping [1][3]. Group 1: Policy and Development - The National Energy Administration has approved nine projects, including a 30,000 tons/year cellulose fuel ethanol project, to advance green liquid fuel technology and industrialization trials, with a completion deadline set for December 2026 [3]. - Green liquid fuels, such as sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), sustainable diesel, and green methanol, represent a new industry that is still developing and lacks mature technology [3][10]. - The establishment of a market system for green liquid fuels is essential for large-scale promotion, as the current costs are approximately double that of traditional fossil fuels [5][6]. Group 2: Challenges and Limitations - The production cost of green liquid fuels is significantly higher than traditional fuels, with green methanol costing around 2,900 yuan per ton, which does not provide a competitive edge in the market [6][5]. - The lack of a coordinated industrial chain, involving raw material supply, production, transportation, and end-use, hampers the healthy development of the green liquid fuel industry [6][5]. Group 3: Future Prospects - The green liquid fuel industry is expected to experience rapid growth in the next 3-5 years, driven by increasing demand and supportive policies from the EU and domestic initiatives [11]. - As technology matures and production scales up, the cost of green liquid fuels is anticipated to decrease, enhancing their competitiveness against traditional fossil fuels [11][10]. - Companies are encouraged to invest in R&D, strengthen collaborations across the industry, and actively participate in international standard-setting to improve their market position [11][10].

Core Viewpoint - The National Energy Administration of China has announced the first batch of pilot projects for green liquid fuel technology, with China Energy Construction (601868) selected for its integrated green hydrogen and ammonia project in Songyuan, which aims to promote the development of the green chemical industry and establish a replicable technology model for the hydrogen energy sector [1] Group 1 - The project by China Energy Construction is included in the first batch of national pilot projects for green liquid fuel technology [1] - The Songyuan hydrogen energy industrial park project will enable local consumption of green electricity and high-value conversion [1] - The initiative aims to facilitate the large-scale production of green hydrogen and ammonia, contributing to the standardization process of the domestic green hydrogen and ammonia industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The document outlines various pilot projects focused on biofuels and green methanol, indicating a significant push towards sustainable energy solutions in the industry [2]. Group 1: Biofuel Projects - The National Investment Biofuel project aims to produce 30,000 tons per year of cellulose fuel ethanol [2]. Group 2: Green Methanol Projects - The Tuanan City wind power coupled biomass green methanol integrated project is highlighted [2]. - Jin Feng Technology's green hydrogen project plans to produce 500,000 tons of green methanol, with the first phase targeting 250,000 tons per year [2]. - The Andashi Tianying wind-solar-storage hydrogen methanol integrated project is also mentioned [2]. - Liaoning Huadian's 450,000 kW wind power hydrogen coupling green methanol integrated project is included [2]. - Lanzhou Dafeng Port's project aims for an annual production of 300,000 tons of green methanol [2]. Group 3: Green Ammonia Projects - The Envision Qincar Technology (Chifeng) Co., Ltd. is set to develop a zero-carbon ammonia project with a capacity of 1.52 million tons per year, with the first phase producing 300,000 tons per year of synthetic ammonia [2]. - The China Energy Construction Corporation's Songyuan hydrogen energy industrial park focuses on green hydrogen and ammonia integration [2]. - The Da'an wind-solar green hydrogen synthetic ammonia integrated project is also noted [2].