绿色液体燃料主要分为绿色甲醇（绿醇）、绿氨、可持续航空燃油（SAF）等，具备零碳或超低碳排 放、高能量密度、易于储运等特点，已成为航运、航空、化工等多行业脱碳的重要抓手。 该机构表示，绿色液体燃料作为航运、航空、化工等领域脱碳的主要抓手之一，受益于碳税等政策加码 以及持续降本，正驶入发展快车道，未来5年有望迎来近10倍增长，远期市场空间达万亿元。国内厂商 凭借丰富低廉的绿电资源，完备的设备供应和下游配套体系优势，加速完善绿色液体燃料产业布局和商 业模式，实现跨越式发展。重点关注：1）绿色氢氨醇一体化生产厂商；2）电解槽等核心设备供应商。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 中信证券认为，随着国内外清洁能源体系和脱碳政策逐步完善，在欧洲航运碳关税机制和长期净零框架 目标的指引下（尽管IMO净零框架表决延迟1年，但不改航运业绿色转向趋势），并考虑绿色化工等领 域原料替代需求，绿色液体燃料需求正逐步从"潜在"向"刚性"转化。测算2025年全球绿醇、绿氨、SAF 潜在需求或分别达300万吨、250万吨、250万吨左右，2030年有望增至3600万吨、2300万吨、1100万吨 左右，未来5年或分别增长11倍、9.2倍、3.5倍 ...

中信证券主要观点如下： 智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，绿色液体燃料作为航运、航空、化工等领域脱碳的主要抓手 之一，受益于碳税等政策加码以及持续降本，正驶入发展快车道，未来5年有望迎来近10倍增长，远期 市场空间达万亿元。国内厂商凭借丰富低廉的绿电资源，完备的设备供应和下游配套体系优势，加速完 善绿色液体燃料产业布局和商业模式，实现跨越式发展。重点关注：1)绿色氢氨醇一体化生产厂商；2) 电解槽等核心设备供应商。 根据IRENA统计，目前绿色液体燃料制备成本较传统灰色路线普遍高70%-120%，其差异主要来自绿 电、设备、碳源等环节额外支出的"绿色溢价"。 以绿醇为例，该行测算当前主流项目生产成本达4500元/吨，其中电力/设备折旧成本占比分别达 52%/27%左右，是未来主要降本方向：电力方面，受益于风电光伏发电成本稳步下降，以及绿电直连模 式进一步优化用电成本，并保障项目绿电可靠供应，该行测算有望推动度电成本由0.25元降至0.15元左 右(风电或低至0.1-0.15元/kWh)； 电解槽设备方面，碱性电解槽性价比突出，是当前的主流技术路线，但随着技术进步和规模化降本，质 子交换膜电解槽有望凭借高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in China's green hydrogen-based energy projects, highlighting the first batch of pilot projects for green liquid fuel technology and their significance for the industry amid global economic challenges and energy transition uncertainties [3][4]. Group 1: Pilot Projects Overview - The first batch of pilot projects includes three types of green fuels: fuel ethanol, green methanol (referred to as "green alcohol"), and green ammonia, involving nine company projects [4]. - The Northeast region of China is a key area for these projects, with abundant wind and solar resources to support green hydrogen production [4]. - Many projects utilize renewable energy sources like wind and solar power for electrolysis to produce green hydrogen, which is then synthesized into green alcohol or green ammonia [4]. Group 2: Market Demand and Industry Trends - The demand for green hydrogen, green alcohol, and green ammonia will directly impact the scale of wind and solar energy consumption in the future [6]. - Eight out of the nine pilot projects focus on green alcohol and green ammonia, aligning with the green transition and new regulations in the global shipping and aviation industries [7]. - Green ammonia and green alcohol are seen as important solutions for decarbonizing the shipping industry, with agreements already in place for supply [7]. Group 3: Challenges to Industrialization - Despite the launch of projects, only 5% of planned capacity has found buyers, indicating that market absorption remains a significant challenge [9]. - The price competition between shipowners and green fuel suppliers is intense, with current production costs for green alcohol being significantly higher than market competitiveness thresholds [9]. - The production cost of green hydrogen fuels is heavily influenced by the cost of renewable energy electricity, which constitutes over 50% of the total production cost [9][10]. Group 4: Innovations and Cost Reduction Strategies - Many projects are adopting innovative energy storage technologies to stabilize production and reduce costs, such as using liquid nitrogen storage to manage excess renewable energy [11]. - Research indicates that when renewable energy prices drop to 0.15 yuan per kilowatt-hour, the price of green ammonia could become competitive with existing gray ammonia prices [10].