报告摘要 事件： 近期伊朗与以色列冲突持续升级，中东地缘政治风险快速提升，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队宣布禁止船只通过霍 尔木兹海峡，避险情绪等多因素推升国际油气价格。 短期：传统化工品成本中枢上移，绿色氢氨醇比价优势持续放大。 中长期：地缘冲突强化能源安全主线， 绿色氢氨醇成自主可控核心抓手。 短期来看，地缘政治冲突直接推升国际油气价格进入上行通道，进而带动传统合成甲醇、合成氨等传统化 工品成本抬升，产品价格将随之上行；而绿色氢氨醇产品的成本与国际油气价格脱钩，其成本决定因素主 要为国内绿电价格；传统化工品的涨价和国内绿电价格的下行有望缩小绿色氢氨醇产品和传统氢氨醇产品 的成本差，从而提升下游化肥、航运燃料等领域的替代意愿和替代经济性，助力绿色氢氨醇行业迎来新的 需求和发展空间。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送 ...

2026 年 3 月 2 日 行业研究 地缘政治冲突推升国际油气价格，持续重点推荐氢氨醇行业 ——碳中和领域动态追踪（一百七十五） 要点 事件：近期伊朗与以色列冲突持续升级，中东地缘政治风险快速提升，伊朗伊斯 兰革命卫队宣布禁止船只通过霍尔木兹海峡，避险情绪等多因素推升国际油气价 格。 短期：传统化工品成本中枢上移，绿色氢氨醇比价优势持续放大。 短期来看，地缘政治冲突直接推升国际油气价格进入上行通道，进而带动传统合 成甲醇、合成氨等传统化工品成本抬升，产品价格将随之上行；而绿色氢氨醇产 品的成本与国际油气价格脱钩，其成本决定因素主要为国内绿电价格；传统化工 品的涨价和国内绿电价格的下行有望缩小绿色氢氨醇产品和传统氢氨醇产品的 成本差，从而提升下游化肥、航运燃料等领域的替代意愿和替代经济性，助力绿 色氢氨醇行业迎来新的需求和发展空间。 中长期：地缘冲突强化能源安全主线，绿色氢氨醇成自主可控核心抓手。 中长期来看，我国石油对外依存度仍处于相对高位（根据中石油经研院预测，"十 五五"时期我国石油对外依存度将保持在 70%左右），地缘政治冲突对国际油气 价格的影响将直接冲击我国化工产业链的供应链成本和安全。在此背景下 ...

新华财经长春2月13日电（记者王晓林）2025年，吉林省工业发展亮点频现，在第一支柱产业汽车制造 业发展持续承压的背景下，石化、农产品加工、装备制造、医药、新能源等产业实现较快增长，带动全 省规模以上工业增加值同比增长7.8％。 专家表示，依托老工业基地的基础条件和科技创新优势，吉林"多业并举"的工业发展新格局正在逐步形 成，随着一批支撑新质生产力发展的重点项目规划建设和投产达效，全省工业结构将持续优化，呈现出 新旧动能接续转换的良好态势。 新兴产业领域，国电投大安、上海电气洮南、中能建松原等一批"绿电氢氨醇"标志性项目在2025年建成 投产，绿色氢氨醇产能在全国处于领先地位。2026年吉林省将推进中核汇能通榆、华电榆树、天楹辽源 等5个百亿级绿色氢基能源一体化项目建设。 工业结构正发生系统性转变 根据吉林省统计局和吉林省政府工作报告发布的数据，2025年，吉林省规模以上工业增加值同比增长 7.8％，高于全国1.9个百分点。从重点产业看，医药产业和石油化工产业增加值分别同比增长17.4％和 11.5％；食品产业、信息产业分别增长7.5％和7.3％；汽车制造业增长3.2％。农产品加工业产值增长 46.1%，装备 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the expansion of China's carbon market, which now includes high-energy-consuming industries such as petrochemicals, chemicals, construction materials, non-ferrous metals, paper, and banking, with a full implementation expected by 2027 [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - The new industries added to the carbon market are expected to contribute an additional 1 to 1.5 billion tons of carbon emissions, which is relatively limited compared to the existing emissions from the power, steel, cement, and aluminum sectors that account for 70-80% of China's total carbon emissions [2][7]. - The carbon market is transitioning from energy consumption control to carbon emission control, with local governments facing assessments based on carbon intensity, impacting project approvals and officials' promotions [2][23]. - The pricing of carbon credits is expected to stabilize and gradually rise, with projections estimating prices to be between 150 to 200 yuan by 2030 [2][25][26]. Allocation of Carbon Quotas - New high-energy industries will likely have their carbon quotas allocated based on production output, with specific methods such as baseline allocation for different product concentrations in industries like caustic soda [4][9]. - For complex industries, historical total or intensity methods may be used, which could disadvantage advanced companies planning to expand production [4][10]. - The aviation sector is currently only partially included, with airports subject to carbon management while airlines will be managed separately by the Civil Aviation Administration [5][16]. Impact on Related Industries - The expansion of the carbon market will directly affect downstream industries such as petrochemicals, chemicals, construction materials, non-ferrous metals, and paper, requiring them to report and manage their carbon emissions [3]. - The clean energy sector is expected to benefit from this expansion, with opportunities arising in areas like green electricity, green hydrogen, and biofuels [3]. - Companies involved in energy-saving equipment and carbon monitoring technologies are also anticipated to gain from the market's growth [3]. Regulatory and Compliance Aspects - Companies failing to meet carbon quota requirements face severe penalties, as illustrated by a case where a company was fined 420 million yuan for not clearing its carbon emissions [20]. - The carbon quota distribution process includes a pre-allocation phase (typically 70%) followed by final adjustments based on actual verified data [19]. Future Projections and Considerations - The carbon market is expected to gradually tighten its regulations, particularly for new coal-fired power plants, while industries like steel and cement may benefit from historical production quotas [14]. - The transition to carbon emission control will require industries to adapt their operations, with different pathways for emission reductions depending on the sector [15]. Additional Important Points - The carbon market's current coverage includes approximately 7 to 8 billion tons of emissions, with the total carbon emissions in China around 10 billion tons [7]. - The methodology for quota allocation may evolve, with potential shifts towards more comprehensive management strategies that consider both historical production and emission intensity [10][11].

"十四五"以来，吉林省清洁能源发展实现历史性跨越，全省新能源装机占比突破50%，超越火电成为第 一大电源。"十四五"期间，吉林省风光发电量达423.5亿千瓦时，较"十三五"时期实现翻番。 "十四五"以来，吉林省提出"绿电+消纳"发展模式，以增量配电网模式、自带负荷（风火打捆）模式、 新能源直供模式和孤网运行模式来拓展绿电消纳空间。2025年12月，"青氢一号"中能建松原氢能产业园 绿色氢氨醇一体化项目正式投产。"该项目采用100%绿电直供技术，通过自主研发的柔性制氢氨醇系 统，破解了新能源波动性与化工生产连续性的难题。"中国能建氢能公司党委书记、董事长李京光介 绍。 "十四五"期间，吉林电网建设投资较"十三五"增长24.52%。2025年，"吉京直流"特高压直流工程顺利完 成可研和内审工作，标志着吉林首条特高压外送通道建设进入实质阶段。工程建成后，将大幅提升清洁 能源外送能力，助力打造国家级清洁能源基地。（马洪超） 责任编辑：于彤彤 为保障大规模新能源消纳，吉林省相继投产多项500千伏关键工程，使省内西部新能源接纳能力由916万 千瓦跃升至"十四五"末的3000万千瓦，有力保障国家首批"沙戈荒"基地建设。国网 ...

本报长春2月8日讯（记者马洪超）"十四五"以来，吉林省清洁能源发展实现历史性跨越，全省新能源装 机占比突破50%，超越火电成为第一大电源。"十四五"期间，吉林省风光发电量达423.5亿千瓦时， 较"十三五"时期实现翻番。 "十四五"以来，吉林省提出"绿电+消纳"发展模式，以增量配电网模式、自带负荷（风火打捆）模式、 新能源直供模式和孤网运行模式来拓展绿电消纳空间。2025年12月，"青氢一号"中能建松原氢能产业园 绿色氢氨醇一体化项目正式投产。"该项目采用100%绿电直供技术，通过自主研发的柔性制氢氨醇系 统，破解了新能源波动性与化工生产连续性的难题。"中国能建氢能公司党委书记、董事长李京光介 绍。 "十四五"期间，吉林电网建设投资较"十三五"增长24.52%。2025年，"吉京直流"特高压直流工程顺利完 成可研和内审工作，标志着吉林首条特高压外送通道建设进入实质阶段。工程建成后，将大幅提升清洁 能源外送能力，助力打造国家级清洁能源基地。 （文章来源：经济日报） 为保障大规模新能源消纳，吉林省相继投产多项500千伏关键工程，使省内西部新能源接纳能力由916万 千瓦跃升至"十四五"末的3000万千瓦，有力保障国 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the transition from energy consumption dual control to carbon dual control in China, with carbon emission intensity becoming a binding indicator and total emissions as a recommended indicator, benefiting green electricity and clean energy applications [2][3] Core Insights and Arguments - Local governments will implement carbon assessments through various means, including encouraging or mandating companies to purchase renewable energy, formulating local carbon reduction policies, and setting industry carbon emission standards [2][7] - The national carbon market currently focuses on the power industry, with plans to gradually include non-electric industries. The carbon intensity reduction rate in the power sector is expected to increase, with free quotas transitioning to paid allocations by 2027 [2][10] - The carbon market's price is expected to remain relatively stable in 2026 and 2027, provided there are no new transfer restrictions [2][14] - Industries such as paper and flat glass may be included in the carbon market in the next phase, followed by basic chemicals, coal chemicals, refining, and copper smelting [2][17] - The transition to a carbon-centric assessment system means that new projects will focus on carbon emissions rather than energy consumption metrics, favoring the use of renewable energy [5][10] Important but Overlooked Content - The construction of zero-carbon parks aims to demonstrate low-emission areas, with specific requirements for carbon intensity and renewable energy usage [21][22] - The economic viability of zero-carbon parks depends on the availability of renewable energy resources and the cost of direct green electricity connections [23] - The EU carbon tariff significantly impacts China's steel and aluminum exports, with potential expansion to other industries [29][31] - The gradual tightening of the EU's free quota policy will increase carbon costs, leading to a rise in carbon prices in the coming years [31] - The potential for future adjustments to the default values used for measuring carbon emissions from Chinese exports to the EU, which are currently considered unreasonably high [30] This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the conference call, highlighting the industry's transition towards carbon control, the implications for various sectors, and the potential impacts of international policies.

（来源：湖南省可再生能源学会） 1月19日，工业和信息化部、国家发展改革委、生态环境部、国务院国资委、国家能源局公布《关于开展零碳工厂建设工作的指导意见》。 根据文件，零碳工厂建设是指通过技术创新、结构调整和管理优化等减排措施，实现厂区内二氧化碳排放的持续降低、逐步趋向于近零的过程。 文件指出，实施分阶段梯度培育，优先选择脱碳需求迫切、能源消费以电力为主、脱碳难度相对较小的行业先行探索，逐步完善相关规划设计、能源供 应、工艺技术、管理运营和商业模式，待条件成熟后再向碳排放量强度高、脱碳难度大的行业逐步推进。 2026年起，遴选一批零碳工厂，做好标杆引领。 到2027年，在汽车、锂电池、光伏、电子电器、轻工、机械、算力设施等行业领域，培育建设一批零碳工厂，初步构建涵盖能源供应、技术研发、标准制 定、金融支持等的零碳工厂建设产业生态，有效适应国际贸易规则，增强产业低碳竞争优势。 到2030年，将零碳工厂建设逐步拓展至钢铁、有色金属、石化化工、建材、纺织等行业领域，探索传统高载能产业脱碳新路径，推广零碳工厂设计、融 资、改造、管理等综合服务模式和系统解决方案，大幅提升产品全生命周期和全产业链管理能力，实现工厂碳排放 ...

Core Viewpoint - The construction of zero-carbon factories in China is being guided by a new policy framework aimed at promoting green transformation in the manufacturing sector, with specific targets set for 2027 and 2030 [1][2]. Group 1: Policy and Guidelines - The "Guiding Opinions" issued by multiple government bodies aim to cultivate a number of zero-carbon factories in key industries by 2027, expanding to additional sectors by 2030 [1][2]. - The transition from energy-saving to green factories and then to zero-carbon factories reflects a progressive evolution in China's manufacturing green transformation [2][3]. Group 2: Importance of Zero-Carbon Factories - Zero-carbon factories are essential for reducing carbon emissions in the industrial sector, which accounts for nearly 70% of China's total carbon emissions [2]. - The construction of zero-carbon factories is recognized as a critical step towards deep decarbonization in the industrial field [2][3]. Group 3: Implementation Challenges - The construction of zero-carbon factories involves complex and systemic challenges, including energy structure, technology, funding, and management, with varying implementation paths across different regions and industries [3][4]. - There are existing issues such as inconsistent evaluation requirements and a lack of robust carbon emission accounting frameworks that need to be addressed [3][4]. Group 4: Regional Initiatives and Standards - Several regions in China, including Tianjin, Shanghai, and Jiangsu, have initiated pilot projects for near-zero carbon factories, establishing a foundation for broader zero-carbon factory construction [4]. - Industry associations have developed over 30 technical standards to guide the construction and evaluation of zero-carbon factories based on international benchmarks [4]. Group 5: Opportunities in Digitalization and Green Energy - The push for zero-carbon factories is expected to create significant opportunities in digital technologies, particularly in areas like digital twin modeling and simulation for manufacturing processes [7]. - The "Guiding Opinions" encourage the development of integrated projects for green hydrogen and ammonia, aiming to establish a sustainable supply chain for clean energy [7].

Core Viewpoint - The hydrogen energy industry in China is experiencing significant growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with expectations for a transition to large-scale commercial development in 2026 as the "15th Five-Year Plan" begins. The China Hydrogen Energy Promotion Association has outlined ten key trends for the development of the green hydrogen and ammonia industry in 2026 [1]. Group 1: Policy and Market Dynamics - The implementation of a dual control system for carbon emissions is expected to enhance the certainty of the hydrogen industry, with 2026 anticipated to be the first year of this system focusing on intensity control [2]. - A carbon footprint accounting system for green hydrogen and ammonia is projected to be established by 2026, facilitating the integration of these products into the national carbon market and promoting the quantification of environmental and economic values [3]. - Targeted policy support is expected to drive orderly development in the hydrogen industry, focusing on key areas such as direct hydrogen production from renewable energy and the construction of hydrogen transport networks [4]. Group 2: Industry Structure and Collaboration - The industry is expected to break down spatial barriers and create a unified national market, promoting regional collaboration and differentiated development based on local resource endowments [5]. - The hydrogen industry is entering a deep adjustment phase, shifting from policy-driven growth to market-driven development, with a focus on value creation and rational investment [6]. Group 3: Capacity and Infrastructure Development - By 2026, the cumulative production capacity of green hydrogen and ammonia projects in China is expected to exceed 500,000 tons per year, supported by the completion of multiple large-scale demonstration projects [7]. - The construction of hydrogen storage and transportation systems is anticipated to accelerate, with significant advancements in hydrogen transport technologies and potential reforms in land use for hydrogen stations [8]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Trends - The transportation sector is poised for significant advancements, with expectations for the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles to reach 50,000 by the end of 2026, particularly in economically robust regions [9]. - The focus in the hydrogen equipment sector is shifting from scale expansion to quality, with an emphasis on performance and reliability improvements in core technologies [10]. Group 5: Global Engagement - China's hydrogen industry is expected to enhance its global presence, transitioning from equipment export to comprehensive solutions including engineering contracts and joint ventures, while actively participating in international standard-setting [10].