Group 1: Eurozone Economic Data - The Eurozone's January CPI is reported at 1.7%, down from 1.9% in December and below the economist forecast of 1.8% [1][6] - Core CPI decreased from 2.3% to 2.2%, and service sector CPI slowed to 3.2%, indicating easing price pressures across multiple sectors [1][6] - Inflation rates among the 21 EU member states show significant divergence, with Germany at 2.1% and France unexpectedly dropping to 0.4%, the lowest in five years [1][6] Group 2: European Central Bank (ECB) Policy - The market widely expects the ECB to maintain the key interest rate at 2% for the fifth consecutive time during its upcoming policy meeting [1][6] - The ECB is likely to reaffirm its assessment that monetary policy is "in a good place" [1][6] Group 3: U.S. Economic Commentary - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that the President has the authority to influence the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [2][7] - The U.S. dollar index fell over 9% last year, with Yellen affirming support for a strong dollar policy, which contrasts with former President Trump's preference for a weaker dollar [2][7] Group 4: Currency Market Movements - The U.S. dollar index showed slight gains, trading around 97.60, supported by short covering and better-than-expected ISM non-manufacturing PMI data [3][8] - The euro traded around 1.1800, facing pressure from the dollar's rebound and the lowest core inflation data in nearly five years [4][9] - The British pound traded around 1.3650, impacted by a stronger dollar and weak economic data from the UK [5][10]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, emphasized the President's right to express opinions on the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, raising concerns about the independence of the Fed's monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Becerra stated that while the President and Congress members have the right to express their views on the Fed's policies, the Fed should maintain its monetary policy independence, which is built on public trust and accountability [1]. - Becerra previously highlighted the importance of the Fed's independence, suggesting that the President should not intervene arbitrarily, yet he criticized the Fed for not adequately protecting the interests of the public regarding inflation [2]. Group 2: Political Pressure and Accountability - The past year saw President Trump exerting pressure on the Fed to lower the benchmark interest rate and attempting to remove Fed Governor Cook over alleged mortgage fraud, which Cook denied [1]. - The Department of Justice is investigating Fed Chair Powell's testimony regarding the costs of the Fed's headquarters renovation, with Powell indicating that the threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Fed's refusal to yield to political pressure [1]. Group 3: Renovation Costs and Public Trust - Powell defended the $2.5 billion renovation project of the Fed's headquarters, stating that the nearly century-old building requires expensive structural repairs and is under independent oversight [2]. - Becerra mentioned that the Fed's handling of inflation has significantly impacted American wage earners, which has affected public trust in the institution [2]. Group 4: Currency Policy - Becerra affirmed support for a strong dollar policy, contrasting with Trump's preference for a weaker dollar, which typically enhances U.S. export competitiveness [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The current credit of the US dollar has been severely damaged. After the "Greenland Island Seizure Incident", multiple pension funds in Europe and Canada announced partial or full sales of US Treasury bonds. The US dollar index has significantly declined. In terms of the Fed's monetary policy, Waller's dissenting vote aims to attract Trump's attention to increase the probability of being nominated as Fed Chair. From fiscal, foreign relations, or monetary policy perspectives, the weakening of the US dollar's credit is irreversible, driving the continuous strong performance of gold and silver prices. Strategically, it is recommended to maintain a long - term view. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 1099 - 1450 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 24880 - 32000 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary According to Related Contents 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold fell 1.38%, reported at 1202.00 yuan/gram; Shanghai silver rose 2.10%, reported at 30358.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold reported 5453.00 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver reported 116.91 US dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield reported 4.24%, and the US dollar index reported 96.18 [2] - Last night, the prices of gold and silver fluctuated sharply, with a significant decline followed by a rebound, but overall they remained relatively strong. This morning, the CME raised the gold margin ratio from 5% to 6% [2] 3.2 Fed's Policy and Personnel - The Fed's interest - rate meeting decided to keep the interest rate in the 3.50% - 3.75% range unchanged without a rate cut, with a cautious monetary - policy stance, in line with market expectations. However, Waller voted against and supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut, which was more dovish than market expectations. After the meeting, Kalshi showed that the market's probability prediction of Waller being nominated as the new Fed Chair increased from 8% to 15%, which once again impacted the independence of the Fed's monetary policy [3] - Trump announced that he plans to announce the candidate to replace Fed Chair Powell next week and believes that the current interest rate should be lowered by 2 - 3 percentage points [2] 3.3 Key Data of Gold and Silver - For gold, on January 29, 2026, COMEX gold's trading volume increased by 403.70% compared to the previous day, and the position increased by 0.10%. LBMA gold's closing price rose 1.85%. SHFE gold's trading volume increased by 18.98%, and the position decreased by 3.86%. The precipitation funds of SHFE gold flowed in by 1.24%. The trading volume of AuT + D increased by 40.78%, and the position increased by 6.00% [5] - For silver, on January 29, 2026, COMEX silver's closing price decreased by 0.72%, and the position increased by 0.33%. LBMA silver's closing price rose 5.01%. SHFE silver's trading volume decreased by 29.95%, and the position decreased by 2.09%. The precipitation funds of SHFE silver flowed in by 3.51%. The trading volume of AgT + D increased by 12.96%, and the position decreased by 1.81% [5] 3.4 Price Structure and Spread - The report presents the near - and far - month price structures of COMEX gold, London gold - COMEX gold, Shanghai gold, Au(T + D) - Shanghai gold, and similar data for silver, as well as the five - day moving average and seasonal chart of the internal - external spreads of gold and silver [17][19][30][36][48] - On January 29, 2026, the SHFE - COMEX spread of gold was 40.63 yuan/gram, and the SGE - LBMA spread was 45.98 yuan/gram. The SHFE - COMEX spread of silver was 6194.83 yuan/kilogram, and the SGE - LBMA spread data was also provided [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's monetary policy stance in the recent FOMC meeting was cautious, keeping the interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range without a rate cut, which met market expectations. However, Waller's dissenting vote to support a 25bps rate cut was more dovish than expected, and the market's probability prediction of Waller being nominated as the new Fed chair rose from 8% to 15%, which further impacted the Fed's monetary policy independence. Coupled with previous contradictory remarks on the US dollar exchange rate, the US dollar's credit was weakened again, driving gold prices to reach a new high. The weakening of the US dollar's credit is irreversible from fiscal, foreign relations, and monetary policy perspectives, leading to a continuous strong performance of gold and silver prices. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold being 1099 - 1460 yuan/gram and that for the main contract of Shanghai Silver being 24880 - 31000 yuan/kilogram [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 3.36% to 1196.80 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver rose 1.46% to 28885.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold was reported at 5411.00 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver was reported at 116.62 US dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 4.26%, and the US dollar index was 96.34 [2] 3.2 Key Data Changes - **Gold**: The closing price of the active COMEX gold contract rose 4.47% to 5411.00 US dollars/ounce; the trading volume decreased by 65.32% to 11.06 million lots; the position increased by 0.10% to 52.80 million lots; the inventory decreased by 0.18% to 1116 tons. The closing price of LBMA gold rose 4.79% to 5306.95 US dollars/ounce. The closing price of the active Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold contract rose 3.29% to 1186.20 yuan/gram; the trading volume increased by 0.77% to 57.76 million lots; the position decreased by 0.08% to 37.19 million lots; the inventory remained unchanged at 103.03 tons; the settled funds increased by 3.22% to 70.591 billion yuan. The closing price of AuT + D rose 3.60% to 1184.04 (multi - pay - short); the trading volume decreased by 28.89% to 77.77 tons; the position increased by 3.71% to 238.89 tons [6] - **Silver**: The closing price of the active COMEX silver contract rose 3.81% to 116.62 US dollars/ounce; the position increased by 0.33% to 15.20 million lots; the inventory decreased by 0.83% to 12805 tons. The closing price of LBMA silver rose 1.10% to 112.80 US dollars/ounce. The closing price of the active SHFE silver contract rose 3.25% to 29219.00 yuan/kilogram; the trading volume increased by 1.96% to 258.39 million lots; the position decreased by 2.72% to 70.61 million lots; the inventory decreased by 6.59% to 508.37 tons; the settled funds increased by 0.44% to 55.705 billion yuan. The closing price of AgT + D rose 2.01% to 29310.00 (short - pay - multi); the trading volume decreased by 2.89% to 609.04 tons; the position decreased by 0.31% to 3335.61 tons [6] 3.3 Market Analysis - The Fed's FOMC meeting decided to keep the interest rate unchanged, but Waller's dissenting vote to support a rate cut and the upcoming nomination of a new Fed chair, along with previous remarks on the US dollar exchange rate, weakened the US dollar's credit, driving up gold and silver prices [3] 3.4 Strategy Suggestions - Due to the continuous weakening of the US dollar's credit, it is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 1099 - 1460 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 24880 - 31000 yuan/kilogram [4]

Core Viewpoint - President Donald Trump is nearing a decision on the next chair of the Federal Reserve, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicating that a nomination is expected soon [1][2]. Candidate Selection Process - The selection process has narrowed from 11 candidates to four finalists, with Trump having met personally with all of them [2]. - The four candidates reportedly include National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, current Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, and BlackRock's chief fixed income strategist, Rick Rieder [2][3]. - Prediction markets suggest that Hassett, Warsh, and Waller are leading candidates, with Warsh currently being viewed as the front-runner [3]. Criticism of Current Chair - White House officials, including Trump and Bessent, have criticized Jerome Powell's management of monetary policy and the Federal Reserve, citing issues with ethical conduct among Fed officials [4][5]. - There have been multiple resignations among Fed officials due to ethical violations, raising concerns about accountability within the institution [5]. Independence and Accountability of the Fed - Bessent emphasized the importance of the Fed's monetary policy independence while also asserting that this independence does not equate to a lack of accountability to the American public [5][6]. - Powell's term as chair is set to expire in May, but he has the option to remain as a governor until 2028 [6].

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Justice has initiated a criminal investigation against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which has sparked significant public reaction [1] - A joint statement from former Federal Reserve Chairpersons Yellen, Greenspan, and Bernanke, along with other former financial officials, criticized the investigation, claiming it undermines the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][4] - The statement emphasized that the independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for the performance of the U.S. economy and that the investigation could have adverse effects on inflation and overall economic operations [1][4] Group 2 - Tensions between Trump and Powell are well-known, with Trump publicly expressing dissatisfaction with Powell's cautious approach to interest rate cuts, which he believes should be more aggressive [2] - Powell has maintained that significant interest rate cuts are not feasible given the prevailing inflation concerns, leading to Trump's threats of dismissal [2][4] - Following the announcement of the investigation, Powell issued a rare video statement accusing the Trump administration of using the investigation as a threat to pressure the Federal Reserve into lowering interest rates [4] Group 3 - The investigation into Powell is reportedly linked to potential corruption related to the maintenance of the Federal Reserve building, although many view this as a pretext for Trump's disregard for the Fed's independence [4][5] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin expressed strong concerns that political interference could lead to a loss of market confidence in U.S. monetary policy, fearing a scenario similar to that of Argentina or Turkey [6] - Despite widespread private concerns among business leaders regarding the Fed's independence, there has been little public reaction, indicating a fear of openly opposing Trump [6]

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver futures prices have reached new historical highs due to escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran, alongside concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the depreciation of the US dollar [1][2][3]. Group 1: Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing unrest in Iran and threats from the Trump administration regarding military intervention have heightened geopolitical risks, driving investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2]. - Analysts from ANZ Bank suggest that geopolitical instability and concerns over monetary policy will continue to boost global demand for gold, with expectations for prices to exceed $5,000 per ounce in the latter half of the year [2][3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence - The Federal Reserve's independence is facing unprecedented political pressure, with Chairman Jerome Powell stating that threats of criminal charges are aimed at undermining the Fed's ability to set interest rates based on economic data rather than political preferences [2][3]. - Concerns over the Fed's independence have led to increased demand for gold, as investors seek to diversify their reserves amid uncertainty [3][7]. Group 3: Market Predictions - Citigroup has raised its price forecasts for gold and silver, predicting gold could reach $5,000 per ounce and silver could rise to $100 per ounce within three months due to ongoing geopolitical risks and supply shortages [3][6]. - HSBC's analysis indicates that the combination of geopolitical risks and rising fiscal deficits is likely to support gold prices, with expectations for prices to surpass $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026 [6][7]. Group 4: Demand Dynamics - Emerging market central banks are accelerating their gold purchases as part of a "de-dollarization" trend, indicating a significant shift in global reserve management from US Treasuries to gold [7][8]. - Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have projected that gold prices could reach approximately $4,900 to $5,055 per ounce by late 2026, driven by structural demand from central banks and potential shifts in private sector investments [8].

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower on January 14, with the Dow Jones down 0.09%, S&P 500 down 0.53%, and Nasdaq down 1% [1] - Large tech stocks experienced declines, with Facebook, Amazon, and Microsoft each falling over 2%, while Tesla dropped nearly 2% and Nvidia fell over 1% [2] Technology Sector - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index decreased by 0.6%, with Broadcom dropping over 4% and ARM and Marvell Technology each falling over 2% [3] - Intel saw an increase of over 3%, and AMD rose by over 1% [3] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.23%, with individual stocks showing mixed results; Bitdeer surged over 15%, while Ctrip Group dropped over 17% [4] Precious Metals - Silver reached a new high, with spot gold rising by 0.87% to $4626.1 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures increasing by 0.62% to $4627.7 per ounce [5] - UBS's Andrew Matthews indicated that silver prices could reach $100 per ounce by mid-2026, supported by supply shortages and increasing demand in industrial applications [5] Oil Market - International oil prices saw a significant drop, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil both falling by 3% at one point; however, WTI closed at $62.02 per barrel, up 1.42% [5] Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin continued to strengthen, rising nearly 2% to surpass $97,000 per coin, with over 120,000 liquidations occurring in the market within 24 hours [6] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book reported slight to moderate growth in consumer spending, with most regions experiencing stable employment conditions [7] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is at 5%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate is at 95% [7] Federal Reserve Policy - Despite President Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve for rate cuts, analysts suggest this may actually increase resistance to lowering rates [8] - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence, warning that undermining it could lead to higher inflation expectations and interest rates over time [8]

Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD exchange rate is under pressure due to increased demand for the USD, with trading around 1.3425 in negative territory [1] Group 1: Economic Data Impact - Market attention is focused on the upcoming US retail sales data and Producer Price Index (PPI), which will provide important references for USD trends and Federal Reserve policy expectations, influencing the GBP/USD exchange rate [3] - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, consistent with November's growth rate and in line with market expectations. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.6% year-on-year, down from 2.7% in November and below the 2.7% market expectation [3] - The market's initial excitement over the core CPI data quickly faded, as it did not shift expectations for the Fed's next rate cut from June to April. Observers believe that the rate cut initiated by Fed Chair Jerome Powell in December is likely the last during his tenure [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence Concerns - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have resurfaced, potentially dragging down the USD. Powell revealed that the Justice Department issued a subpoena regarding the $2.5 billion cost overrun for the Fed's Washington headquarters renovation project, which he characterized as an attempt to pressure the Fed for rate cuts [3] - The ongoing external pressures may disrupt the stability of the Fed's monetary policy direction [3] Group 3: Bank of England's Policy Outlook - The Bank of England's dovish policy stance may further suppress the GBP/USD exchange rate. The BoE lowered the benchmark interest rate to 3.75% in December and indicated that it would continue to cut rates in 2026 after inflation eases, emphasizing the need to consider multiple factors in future monetary policy decisions [4] - Most analysts expect the BoE to maintain interest rates in February, with a likely 0.25 percentage point cut occurring in March or April [4] - The BoE's persistent dovish orientation will weaken the appeal of the GBP, compounded by a phase of increased USD demand, creating downward pressure on the GBP/USD exchange rate [4] - The upcoming US retail sales and PPI data will act as a catalyst for market sentiment, with strong data potentially boosting the USD and intensifying pressure on GBP/USD, while weaker data may provide temporary support for the GBP [4]

Core Viewpoint - The criminal investigation launched by the U.S. Department of Justice against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has created new divisions within Trump's team, raising concerns about its impact on financial markets and the administration's plans for appointing a new Fed chair [1][2]. Group 1: Investigation Impact - Several officials within the Trump administration are reportedly anxious about the investigation, fearing it could disrupt financial markets and complicate personnel changes related to the Federal Reserve [1][5]. - Following the announcement of the investigation, the U.S. dollar declined, while bond yields and gold prices increased, indicating market reactions to potential political interference with the Fed [1][5]. - Senator Thom Tillis expressed that he would oppose any nominee for the Fed chair until the legal issues surrounding Powell are resolved, highlighting the potential for political gridlock in the Senate [5][6]. Group 2: Powell's Response - Powell issued a strong statement asserting that the investigation is an attempt to pressure the Federal Reserve, emphasizing that monetary policy should be based on public interest rather than political preferences [2][4]. - The investigation is reportedly based on allegations that Powell provided false testimony regarding a $3 billion renovation project for the Fed's building, which was expected to cost only $50 million [6][10]. Group 3: Internal Administration Dynamics - Concerns about the investigation were echoed by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who communicated his dissatisfaction to Trump, indicating that the situation has become chaotic [1][4]. - The investigation's initiation appears to have been influenced by Bill Pulte, the head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, who reportedly advocated for the inquiry during a flight with Trump [7][9]. - Trump's communications regarding the investigation have been cautious, as he attempts to distance himself from the inquiry while still expressing dissatisfaction with Powell's performance [8][9]. Group 4: Future Implications - Some Republican senators are considering a "deal" where Powell would resign in exchange for the withdrawal of the investigation, indicating potential negotiations within the party [10]. - The investigation's outcome could significantly affect the Federal Reserve's leadership and its independence from political pressures, which is crucial for maintaining market stability [2][6].