五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 有色金属日报 2025-9-25 铜 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 【策略观点】 美联储议息会议表态偏鹰，短期情绪面相对承压，但若降息进程推进，市场情绪预计不会明显受抑。 产业上看铜原料供应紧张预期再次强化，自由港公司因 Grasberg 矿山事故显著下调该矿山四季度和 2026 年产量。当前尽管旺季需求表现一般，不过长假临近下游仍有一定的备货需求。短期铜价预计 延续偏强。 铝 【行情资讯】 周三伦铝下探回升，收盘涨 0.32%至 2654 美元/吨，沪铝主力 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The Fed's hawkish stance in the FOMC meeting puts short - term pressure on sentiment, but if the rate - cut process advances, market sentiment may not be significantly suppressed. For copper, the supply of raw materials remains tight, and with the approaching holiday, downstream stocking demand is expected to increase, providing strong support for copper prices. Short - term prices may rise in a volatile manner [4]. - Although the Fed's statement is less dovish than expected, the progress of rate cuts is not expected to significantly suppress market sentiment. For aluminum, the peak - season characteristics of downstream demand are not obvious, but as prices fall and the National Day holiday approaches, downstream consumption is expected to improve, and aluminum prices have strong support below and may repair upwards in the short term [7]. - For lead, on the primary side, the accumulation rate of lead ore inventory is weaker than in previous years, and raw material shortages suppress primary smelting operations. On the secondary side, scrap prices decline, and secondary smelting profits are repaired, with a slight improvement in operations. Downstream battery enterprises' operations are higher than in previous years, and after the battery inventory pressure eases, downstream purchases increase slightly. It is expected that Shanghai lead will run strongly in the short term [9]. - For zinc, the domestic TC of zinc ore has stopped rising, and although the imported TC continues to rise, the upward rate may slow down significantly due to the low Shanghai - London ratio. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory is still in an accumulation trend, while the overseas LME zinc ingot inventory continues to decline, and the Shanghai - London ratio continues to weaken. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will run weakly in the short term [11]. - For tin, the short - term supply and demand are in a tight balance. Although the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is approaching, the overall volume remains to be observed. Coupled with the warming of peak - season demand, tin prices may not fall in the short term and will continue to run in a volatile manner [13]. - For nickel, recently, the price of ferronickel is relatively strong, but the inventory pressure of refined nickel is significant, dragging down nickel prices. In the long - term, the US easing expectations and China's anti - involution policies will support nickel prices, and the RKAB approval in the new year also constitutes potential positive factors. It is recommended to go long on dips [17]. - For lithium carbonate, on Tuesday, the commodity index was weak, and lithium prices were under pressure during the session. But it is the peak - demand season, and domestic inventory is continuously decreasing, so the spot may remain in a tight state, and lithium prices have strong support at the bottom [20]. - For alumina, the ore price has short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The opening of the import window may exacerbate the over - supply situation. However, the increasing expectation of the Fed's rate cut may drive the non - ferrous sector to run strongly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [23]. - For stainless steel, domestic leading steel mills have a strong willingness to support prices, and the physical inventory in Foshan is relatively low, resulting in strong support below. However, the consumer side has not improved significantly, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is low. It is expected to run in a narrow - range and volatile manner in the short term [26]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the downstream is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, but the peak - season characteristics are not obvious yet. Coupled with the generation of the first batch of warehouse receipts, the delivery pressure of cast aluminum alloy appears, and the price is under pressure above, while the support comes from the cost of scrap aluminum [29]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, LME copper fell 0.08% to $9993/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79970 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 400 to 144975 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio declined. Domestic SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 28,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai was 55 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong, the inventory decreased, with the spot premium remaining at 70 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference narrowed to 1800 yuan/ton [3]. - **Strategy**: Short - term prices may rise in a volatile manner [4]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, LME aluminum continued to be weak, closing down 0.34% to $2646/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20670 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 10,000 to 501,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 69,000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory and aluminum bar inventory both decreased slightly, and the aluminum bar processing fee fluctuated up. The spot in East China was at a 10 - yuan discount to the futures, and the discount narrowed by 10 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum inventory slightly decreased to 514,000 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio slightly increased [6]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices may repair upwards in the short term [7]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 0.44% to 17080 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position was 99,000 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME lead 3S fell 3 to $1994/ton, and the total position was 159,600 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16975 yuan/ton, and the average price of secondary refined lead was 16900 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased to 51,100 tons [8]. - **Strategy**: Shanghai lead is expected to run strongly in the short term [9]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 1.09% to 21852 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position was 250,300 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME zinc 3S fell 43 to $2870/ton, and the total position was 215,600 lots. The domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 157,000 tons [10]. - **Strategy**: Shanghai zinc is expected to run weakly in the short term [11]. Tin - **Market Information**: On September 23, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 269880 yuan/ton, down 0.97%. The SHFE registered warehouse receipts increased by 42 to 6600 tons. The average price of Shanghai spot tin ingots was 270500 yuan/ton, down 2000 yuan/ton. The supply of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State resumed slowly, and the raw material shortage in Yunnan's smelting enterprises still existed. It is expected that the domestic refined tin output in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. The demand in the new energy vehicle and AI server sectors is booming, but the demand in traditional consumer electronics and home appliances is still weak. In August, the tin solder output of sample enterprises increased by 7.99% month - on - month [12]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices may run in a volatile manner in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 260,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin, it is $32,500 - $35,500/ton [13]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, nickel prices fluctuated. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 120730 yuan/ton, down 0.55%. In the spot market, the transaction was average. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of ferronickel was also stable. The price of MHP coefficient increased slightly [15]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, if the refined nickel inventory continues to increase, nickel prices may fall further. In the long - term, it is recommended to go long on dips. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M, it is $14,500 - $16,500/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 72,987 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The LC2511 contract closed at 73,660 yuan, up 0.33%. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 200 yuan [19]. - **Strategy**: Lithium prices have strong support at the bottom. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 71,600 - 75,800 yuan/ton [20]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On September 23, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.93% to 2879 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position increased by 0.8 to 444,000 lots. The Shandong spot price fell 15 to 2925 yuan/ton, with a 75 - yuan premium to the 10 - contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price remained at $322/ton, and the import window opened [22]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12890 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets were stable. The raw material prices were mostly stable, and the social inventory decreased by 2.51% [25]. - **Strategy**: Stainless - steel prices are expected to run in a volatile manner in the short term [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: As of Tuesday afternoon, the AD2511 contract fell 0.22% to 20255 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased slightly. The average price of domestic mainstream ADC12 was stable, and the downstream mainly made rigid purchases. The domestic three - place aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased by 0.03 to 50,000 tons [28]. - **Strategy**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are under pressure above and supported by scrap aluminum costs [29].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Despite the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, the progress of interest rate cuts is not expected to significantly suppress market sentiment. Different metals have different market trends and influencing factors, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **行情资讯**: On Monday, LME copper closed up 0.06% at $10,002/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 80,100 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 2,275 tons to 145,375 tons. Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by 0.4 tons compared to last Thursday, and the spot premium in different regions showed different trends. The refined - scrap spread narrowed to 1,870 yuan/ton [3]. - **策略观点**: Although the Fed's hawkish stance puts short - term pressure on sentiment, if the interest rate cut process advances, market sentiment may not be significantly affected. Copper raw material supply remains tight. With the approaching of the long holiday, downstream stocking demand is expected to increase, providing strong support for copper prices. Short - term prices may rise in a volatile manner [4]. Aluminum - **行情资讯**: On Monday, LME aluminum closed down 0.78% at $2,655/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,715 yuan/ton. The position of SHFE weighted contract decreased by 14,000 to 511,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipt decreased by 0.1 tons to 71,000 tons. Domestic mainstream area aluminum ingot inventory remained flat, and aluminum bar social inventory decreased by 0.5 tons. Aluminum bar processing fees fluctuated up, but actual transactions were average. The spot in the East China region remained at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures, and the LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged [4]. - **策略观点**: The downstream peak season characteristics of aluminum are not obvious, but as prices fall, aluminum bar processing fees rise again. With the approaching of the National Day holiday, downstream consumption willingness is expected to improve, and aluminum prices have strong support below. Short - term prices may repair upwards [5]. Lead - **行情资讯**: On Monday, the SHFE lead index closed down 0.10% at 17,155 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell by $14 to $1,997/ton. Domestic and overseas lead inventories, warehouse receipt information, and various price differences are provided. Domestic social inventory decreased to 51,100 tons [7]. - **策略观点**: On the primary side, the accumulation rate of lead ore inventory is weaker than in previous years, and the TC of lead concentrate has decreased again, suppressing smelting start - ups. On the secondary side, scrap prices have declined, and smelting profits have recovered, with a slight increase in start - ups. Downstream battery enterprises' start - ups are higher than in previous years, and purchases have increased slightly. It is expected that SHFE lead will be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the holiday arrangements of downstream battery enterprises during the National Day [8]. Zinc - **行情资讯**: On Monday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 0.20% at 22,092 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S fell by $6 to $2,913/ton. Domestic and overseas zinc inventories, warehouse receipt information, and various price differences are provided. Domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 157,000 tons [9]. - **策略观点**: The domestic TC of zinc ore has stopped rising, and although the imported TC continues to rise, the upward rate may slow down significantly due to the low SHFE - LME ratio. The surplus of zinc ore has eased. Domestic zinc ingot social inventory is still in the accumulation trend, while overseas LME zinc inventory continues to decline. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector has cooled. It is expected that SHFE zinc will be weak in the short term [10]. Tin - **行情资讯**: On September 22, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 272,510 yuan/ton, up 1.39%. Domestic futures registered warehouse receipts increased by 42 tons to 6,600 tons. Spot and upstream tin prices rose. Supply is tight due to the slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and enterprise maintenance. It is expected that domestic refined tin production in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. Demand in the new energy and AI sectors is booming, but traditional consumer electronics and home appliances are still weak. With the arrival of the peak season, downstream consumption is expected to improve marginally [11]. - **策略观点**: Short - term tin supply and demand are in a tight balance. Although the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is approaching, the quantity is still to be observed. With the warming of peak - season demand, tin prices are difficult to fall in the short term and will continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 260,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $32,500 - $35,500/ton [12]. Nickel - **行情资讯**: On Monday, nickel prices fluctuated. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 121,400 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. Spot market transactions were average, and the prices of nickel ore, nickel iron, and intermediate products showed different trends [14]. - **策略观点**: In the short term, although nickel iron prices are strong, the high inventory of refined nickel drags down nickel prices. If the inventory of refined nickel continues to increase, nickel prices may fall further. In the long term, the Fed's easing expectations, China's anti - involution policy, and the RKAB approval are expected to support nickel prices. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference range for the SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - $16,500/ton [15][16]. Carbonate Lithium - **行情资讯**: The MMLC carbonate lithium spot index was 72,987 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The LC2511 contract closed at 73,420 yuan, down 0.73%. In August 2025, China's carbonate lithium imports increased by 57.8% month - on - month and 23.5% year - on - year [18]. - **策略观点**: The commodity index fluctuated downwards, and lithium prices may continue to be under pressure. However, in the peak - demand season, domestic inventory is decreasing, and the spot is in a tight state, providing strong support for lithium prices. Both long and short funds are cautious. It is recommended to pay attention to resource supply and demand expectations. The reference range for the GFE carbonate lithium 2511 contract is 71,200 - 74,800 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **行情资讯**: On September 22, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.64% to 2,935 yuan/ton. The position increased by 11,000 to 436,000 lots. The domestic and overseas spot prices and import profit and loss information are provided. The futures warehouse receipt increased by 0.18 tons to 152,200 tons, and the prices of bauxite remained stable [21]. - **策略观点**: Bauxite prices have short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern of alumina smelting is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The opening of the import window may exacerbate the surplus situation. However, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations may drive the non - ferrous metals sector to be strong. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,800 - 3,100 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's bauxite policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [22]. Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**: On Monday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,910 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. Spot prices in different regions remained unchanged. The prices of raw materials such as nickel iron and scrap steel showed different trends. Futures inventory decreased by 355 tons to 89,377 tons, and social inventory decreased by 2.51% to 987,100 tons [24]. - **策略观点**: Indonesia's policy has limited impact on stainless steel. Domestic leading steel mills have strong price - support intentions, and the physical inventory in Foshan is low, providing strong support for prices. However, consumer demand has not improved significantly, and prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**: As of Monday afternoon, the AD2511 contract fell 0.12% to 20,300 yuan/ton. The position and trading volume decreased. The price difference between AL2511 and AD2511 contracts narrowed. Domestic mainstream ADC12 prices and imported ADC12 prices decreased, and downstream purchases were on - demand. Domestic three - place aluminum alloy ingot inventory decreased slightly [27]. - **策略观点**: The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, but the peak - season characteristics are not obvious. With the generation of the first batch of warehouse receipts, the delivery pressure is emerging, and prices are under pressure above. The support comes from the cost of scrap aluminum [28].

据第一财经报道，美债是支撑美国政府和经济的重要根基，其重要性已经显露。彼时，美国国债遭遇大幅抛售——不少 市场人士就预判，此次美股无法做到的事情，美债市场也许能做到，即美债收益率的大幅持续攀升会令特朗普政府在对 等关税政策上"眨眼"。市场人士强调，此次导致美债和美元指数下跌的原因更加结构性、系统性。 美国总统特朗普（资料图） 中辉期货资管部投资经理王维芒表示，尽管特朗普暂缓对部分国家加征关税，但政策的不确定性加剧了市场对美国经济 衰退和通胀反弹的预期，削弱了美债的避险属性。另外，对冲基金通过高杠杆做多美债现券、做空期货，依赖低波动率 环境套利。特朗普关税政策引发市场剧烈波动，波动率指数飙升至年内高点，导致基差交易爆仓，基金被迫抛售现券以 补充保证金。当前基差交易规模已达1万亿美元，平仓压力导致长债收益率飙升。与美债收益率关系密切的降息进程，近 期变数颇多。 近年来，美国政府对美联储政策的干预逐渐增强。特朗普在二次执政期间，已多次对美联储的决策表达不满并施加压 力，这使得外界对美联储能否独立、科学地制定货币政策产生了担忧。今年2月，特朗普签署了一项行政命令，宣称"掌 握重大行政权力的官员必须接受民选总统的监督" ...