坚定出海搏增长，关注美洲与新兴市场机遇 耐用消费品2026年投资策略 章鹏 张影秋 peng.zhang@nomuraoi-sec.com yingqiu.zhang@nomuraoi-sec.com SAC执证编号：S1720521100001 SAC执证编号：S1720522110001 STRICTLYPRIVATEANDCONFIDENTIAL 本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 耐用品策略：坚定出海搏增长，关注美洲与新兴市场机遇 1 ◼ 展望2026年，我们认为"出海主线"相关标的的投资回报表现将更值得期待 尽管"出海主线"相关标的在2026年上半年仍会因抢出口导致的高基数面临增长压力，但是下半年在内需饱受 国补透支效应与住宅交易性需求减少拖累影响时，以海外为主的企业可凭地产地销策略、高质价比产品与渠道拓宽 策略抢占份额以实现增长。 2025/12 ©Nomura ◼ 国补透支效应、高基数压力与住宅交易性需求孱弱三大因素压制耐用品内销表现 建立在2026年耐用消费品内销难有亮眼表现的判断基础上，针对以内销为主的耐用消费品企业和地产后周期企 业，我们仅推荐两 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market saw a collective surge in AI glasses concept stocks, driven by the announcement of Google's collaboration with XREAL on the Project Aura smart glasses, set to launch in 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Stocks such as Furong Technology and Qixin Group hit the 10% daily limit up, while Star Technology rose over 7%, and Yintang Intelligent Control increased by over 6% [1] - Other notable performers included Ciweng Media, Pengding Holdings, which rose over 5%, and Pinming Technology, which increased by over 4% [1] - Haoyun Technology, Huilun Crystal, Sanan Optoelectronics, and Jucheng Co. all saw gains exceeding 3% [1] Group 2: Project Aura Details - Google and XREAL jointly launched the Project Aura smart glasses, utilizing the self-developed X1S chip by XREAL [1] - The hardware development and manufacturing of Project Aura are primarily reliant on a Chinese team, with the Prism™ optical system independently developed and mass-produced by this team [1] - The supply chain is rooted in the Yangtze River Delta, with Shanghai designated as XREAL's global R&D and future AI terminal innovation center [1]

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Core Insights - Major technology companies are entering the AI glasses market, with Alibaba launching its Quark AI glasses featuring the latest Qianwen assistant, enhancing user interaction with various Alibaba services [1] - The AI glasses market is projected to experience significant growth, with global shipments expected to reach 4.368 million units by 2025, marking a 64.2% year-on-year increase [2] - The potential market for smart glasses is estimated at around 1 billion units, with a growing share from the Chinese market [3] Industry Trends - AI glasses are becoming a key focus for major tech companies, with Huawei, Xiaomi, and Baidu also entering the market [2] - The "Double Eleven" shopping festival saw explosive sales growth for AI glasses, with Tmall reporting a 2500% year-on-year increase in sales and JD.com showing a 346% increase [2] - By 2026, the smart glasses market is expected to enter a new phase of scaled growth, with global shipments projected to exceed 23.687 million units [2] Investment Opportunities - The AI glasses industry has a long supply chain, including optical components, core chips, and micro-display devices, with nearly 200 related concept stocks in the A-share market [4] - Several companies, such as Haopeng Technology and Hongxin Electronics, are actively involved in the AI glasses sector, providing customized solutions and products [4][5] - A total of 26 concept stocks are predicted to see net profit growth of over 20% in the next two years, indicating strong investment potential [6]

Group 1: Market Overview - The global smart glasses market is projected to reach a shipment volume of 4.065 million units in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 64.2% [1] - By 2029, the global smart glasses market is expected to exceed 40 million units, with China's market share steadily increasing and a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 55.6%, the highest globally [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Among the 10 AI glasses concept stocks that released Q3 2025 forecasts, 9 companies expect positive results, with only Guangpu Co. predicting a decline [1] - Companies like Luxshare Precision, Lianyi Intelligent Manufacturing, and Ruixin Microelectronics are expected to report net profits exceeding 500 million yuan for the first three quarters, with Luxshare Precision leading at 11.12 billion yuan [1] - Suobede's net profit is projected to grow by 1258.39% to 1313.24%, driven by significant increases in production and delivery of key products [2] - Luxshare Precision anticipates a net profit growth of 20% to 25%, supported by its strong technological foundation and global layout [2] Group 3: Investment Trends - Smart glasses are becoming a primary focus for major tech companies, transitioning from niche products to mainstream computing devices [3] - In the first three quarters of this year, 12 AI glasses concept stocks saw net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with Luxshare Precision receiving the highest net buy amount of 5.007 billion yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - Kosen Technology (603626) has issued a stock trading risk warning due to its stock price hitting the daily limit for three consecutive trading days, indicating a significant recent price increase and potential short-term decline risk [1] Company Overview - Kosen Technology specializes in the production of structural components for consumer electronics [1] - The company has been mistakenly identified by media as a player in the AI glasses sector, but it does not manufacture AI glasses or their structural components [1] - Kosen Technology has also been associated with the foldable screen sector; however, it primarily relies on a single customer for its foldable screen hinge assembly business, which only contributed 2.10% to total revenue in the first half of 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Kosen Technology experienced an abnormal trading fluctuation, with a cumulative closing price increase of 20% over two consecutive trading days on September 16 and 17, 2025, attributed to its mention in AI glasses and foldable screen concept stocks by the media [1] Group 1: Company Operations - Kosen Technology's main business is the production of consumer electronics structural components [1] - The company clarified that it does not manufacture AI glasses or their structural components [1] - The foldable screen hinge assembly business relies on a single customer, and the revenue generated from this segment accounted for only 2.10% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, indicating minimal impact on overall performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Kunshan Kosen Technology Co., Ltd. experienced an abnormal trading fluctuation, with a cumulative closing price increase of 20% over two consecutive trading days on September 16 and 17, 2025 [2][4]. Group 1: Stock Trading Abnormality - The company's stock price deviation reached a cumulative increase of 20% over two trading days, qualifying as an abnormal trading situation according to the Shanghai Stock Exchange rules [2][4]. - The company confirmed that there were no undisclosed significant matters after self-examination and verification with controlling shareholders and actual controllers [3][5]. Group 2: Business Operations - The company specializes in the production of structural components for consumer electronics, and its current production and operational conditions are normal without significant changes in the internal and external business environment [5]. - The company does not manufacture AI glasses or their structural components, despite being listed in media reports as part of the AI glasses concept stock [3][7]. - The folding screen hinge assembly business accounts for only 2.10% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, indicating minimal impact on overall performance [3][7]. Group 3: Major Events and Market Sentiment - There are no undisclosed major events or information that could significantly impact the company's stock price, including major asset restructuring, share issuance, or significant business cooperation [6][8]. - The company has not engaged in any stock trading by directors, supervisors, senior management, or controlling shareholders during the abnormal trading period [8]. Group 4: Financial Performance - The company reported a net loss of 476.83 million yuan for the fiscal year 2024 and a net loss of 105.21 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [11].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Kosen Technology (603626.SH) experienced a significant price fluctuation, with a cumulative increase of 20% over two consecutive trading days, which is classified as an abnormal trading situation according to Shanghai Stock Exchange regulations [1] Group 1: Company Operations - Kosen Technology's main business is the production of structural components for consumer electronics [1] - The company has been mistakenly identified by media as a player in the AI glasses sector; however, it does not manufacture AI glasses or their structural components [1] - Kosen Technology has also been associated with the foldable screen concept; yet, it only has a single customer for its foldable screen hinge assembly business, which relies on externally sourced components [1] Group 2: Financial Impact - The revenue generated from the foldable screen hinge assembly business accounted for only 2.10% of the total revenue in the first half of 2025, indicating that this segment does not significantly impact the company's overall performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Kosen Technology (603626.SH) experienced a significant price fluctuation, with a cumulative increase of 20% over two consecutive trading days, which is classified as an abnormal trading situation according to the Shanghai Stock Exchange regulations [1] Group 1: Company Operations - Kosen Technology's main business is the production of structural components for consumer electronics [1] - The company has been mistakenly identified by media as a player in the AI glasses sector; however, it does not manufacture AI glasses or their structural components [1] - Kosen Technology has also been associated with the foldable screen concept; yet, upon self-examination, it confirmed that its foldable screen hinge assembly business relies on a single customer and uses externally sourced components, contributing only 2.10% to total revenue in the first half of 2025, thus having a negligible impact on overall performance [1]