有意思的是，高盛并不把"系统级软件被AI彻底替换"当作主线风险（评分1）。更尖锐的担忧在两个方 向：一是价值从系统记录层（System of Record, SoR）向"代理式操作系统/编排层"迁移（评分4），二 是技术迭代速度本身让终局难以定价（评分5）——估值很难找到"地板"。 在这种不确定性里，报告给的抓手也很明确：盯两类信号——其一，软件公司能否证明"行业域经验"真 的能带来更高质量的代理式结果；其二，财报层面基本面能否稳定甚至改善。 这轮软件回调，市场盯的是"终值辩论" 高盛的判断是：2026年这波下跌，争论点从"短期增长曲线"转向"护城河会不会被AI削薄"。讨论的中 心主要在应用软件，但也开始波及基础设施/安全栈，以及与云厂商资本开支相关的投入产出。 因此报告的写法更像"拆辩题"：把七个熊市论点从"稻草人"到"钢人论证"排队，给出风险分数，试图回 答同一个问题——什么东西还能支撑终值。 SoR不太会被掀桌子，但"价值外移"更危险 A：SoR"被替换"风险很低（评分1） 2026年迄今软件板块的回调，和过去几轮"需求放缓/利率上行"驱动的修正不太一样：市场更像在讨论 终值——这些公司十年后还能不能守 ...

Group 1 - OpenAI launched a macOS desktop version of Codex, designed as an "AI agent command center" that supports multi-agent parallel work through a "work tree" mode to isolate code changes for different tasks [1] - The application features asynchronous background operation, a skill system, and scheduled automation tasks, with a built-in sandbox for precise AI permission management; the CEO stated that a complete project was accomplished solely with Codex [1] - OpenAI temporarily doubled rate limits for all paid users for two months and opened Codex access to free users, directly competing with Anthropic and Cursor [1] Group 2 - Zhipu released and open-sourced the GLM-OCR model, achieving a state-of-the-art score of 94.6 on OmniDocBench V1.5 with only 0.9 billion parameters, closely rivaling Gemini-3-Pro [2] - The model specializes in challenging scenarios such as handwriting, complex tables, code documents, and seals, supporting deployment via vLLM, SGLang, and Ollama, with an API price of only 0.2 yuan per million tokens [2] - Technically, it employs a self-developed CogViT visual encoder and introduces multi-token prediction loss into OCR training, enabling batch processing and retrieval-augmented generation [2] Group 3 - Tencent's Hongyuan Technology blog launched, presenting research results from Yao Shunyu's team on CL-bench, revealing that current state-of-the-art models have significant deficiencies in learning from context [3] - Evaluation shows that the average of ten state-of-the-art models only solves 17.2% of tasks, with the best model, GPT-5.1, achieving only 23.7%, and 68.5% of candidate solutions contain fundamental errors [3] - The research indicates that the focus of AI competition will shift from model capability to "who can provide the richest context," with memory mechanisms potentially becoming a core research theme by 2026 [3] Group 4 - xAI officially released the Grok Imagine 1.0 video generation model, supporting text-to-video and image-to-video generation, capable of producing 10 seconds of 720P video per instance with significantly improved audio effects [4] - The model features cinematic-level camera understanding and natural interaction among multiple subjects, ranking first in the Artificial Analysis text-to-video category with optimal latency and cost metrics [4] - During the 30-day testing period, 1.245 billion videos were generated, and the API has been released with free access on the official website [4] Group 5 - Tencent's ima integrated the Hongyuan Image 3.0 model, enabling users to upload photos to generate creative content across multiple scenarios, such as travel images, home decoration effects, and four-panel comics [5][6] - The product can be utilized for entertainment, custom family photos, rapid design draft generation, and medical science popularization illustrations [5][6] Group 6 - Adobe announced the discontinuation of its 25-year-old Animate software, with enterprise customers receiving three years of support and other users only one year, after which access to any files will be lost [7] - Adobe did not provide a suitable replacement, merely suggesting After Effects and Adobe Express as partial alternatives, which has been criticized as inadequate [7] - This move is seen as a signal of Adobe's full pivot towards an AI strategy, raising concerns among users about being forced to use immature technology, reminiscent of Flash's historical impact on multimedia [7] Group 7 - Elon Musk announced that SpaceX has completed the acquisition of xAI, with a combined valuation of $1.25 trillion, making xAI a wholly-owned subsidiary of SpaceX [8] - SpaceX plans to advance the deployment of space data centers, with Musk stating that annual satellite launches could add 100GW of AI computing power, with a long-term goal of reaching 1TW [8] - The merger provides xAI with stable funding support, as it previously burned approximately $1 billion monthly, with SpaceX regarded as Musk's "most successful and stable" enterprise [8] Group 8 - Google utilized Gemini to tackle 700 unresolved mathematical problems, making progress on 13, with 5 being new solutions generated by the model and 8 derived from overlooked literature [9] - The research revealed that 68.5% of candidate solutions contained fundamental errors, with only 6.5% being meaningful correct answers, indicating significant time spent on verification, correction, and literature review [9] - Google acknowledged that these problems could be easily solved by experts in any field, highlighting the true costs of AI-assisted mathematical research and the risks of "subconscious plagiarism" from literature [9] Group 9 - a16z's AI applications team believes that the AI era represents a convergence of all technology cycles, with traditional software transitioning to AI-native, where greenfield opportunities outweigh brownfield ones [10] - Software is "eating" the labor market, but the real value lies not in cost savings but in revenue generation, as seen with Salient, which improved its collection rate by 50% through AI rather than merely reducing costs [10] - Companies with proprietary data are seeing their value multiply, making moats more important than ever in an era where software can be rapidly constructed [10]

AI 不是新周期，而是所有周期的叠加 Alex Rampell ： 对各位第一次见面的朋友，我是 Alex Rampell ，来自 Apps Fund 。我加入 a16z 已 10 年。接下来这张图灵感源于 Chris Dixon 早在 12 、 13 年前发表的一篇文章，核心观点是：产品周期驱动增长。图表顶部显示的是 Nasdaq 指数（ 1977- 今）：整体向上，但期间也有惊险的下跌。 在如今软件可以被如此快速构建的时代，护城河的重要性反而比以往任何时候都更高。 把 " 接近 AGI 的能力 " 装进每个人的口袋里，本身就是一个极其好的主意，几乎没人能反对。 尤其是在 walled gardens 这一类，以及那些真正承担 " 替代或完成劳动力工作 " 的软件上，我认为正是这些方向具备最强的现实落地性和持续价值创造能力。 图片来源： a16z Z Highlights 本次访谈的 Alex Rampell 、 Jen Kha 、 David Haber 、 Anish Acharya 均为 a16z AI Apps 投资团队合伙人，深耕生成式 AI 应用与商业化布局，关注 " 模型 之外 " 的产品与机 ...

RT TBPN (@tbpn)YC Managing Partner @harjtaggar says we're returning to @balajis's concept of full stack startups, but with AI."The new trend is going AI native. Not just selling your agents, but using them to build the company." https://t.co/izFmLGxnja ...

AI Adoption & Strategy - AI native operations are crucial, partnerships with companies like Salesforce are important [1] - Rewiring processes end-to-end with a top-down mandate is necessary for high leverage AI applications [7] - AI adoption requires executive-level involvement, not just delegation to the CIO [6] - Focus on real ROI from AI products and leveraging data within ecosystems [12] Salesforce & Ecosystem - Partnerships with Salesforce are a key strategy for AI companies [1] - Integrating AI into regulated industries with existing infrastructure takes longer due to complexity [10] - Making the most out of data investment with agenda within the Salesforce ecosystem is important [11] Enterprise Challenges & Opportunities - Enterprises are seeking help with AI implementation across various categories [16] - Smaller startups face challenges entering the enterprise market due to hyperscalers [15] - The need for sharp differentiation is crucial for startups in the AI space [15] - AI adoption can lead to displacement of those not using AI [14] Voice & Conversational AI - Voice and conversational agents elevate customer experience across various company sizes [4] - Use cases for AI include enhancing customer support and shopping experiences [9]

Job Market Trends - AI领域对年轻人才需求旺盛，应届毕业生无需工作经验即可获得工作机会 [1] - 年轻人就业形势严峻，AI领域除外 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid evolution and market dynamics of AI headphones, highlighting the contrasting survival culture in Shenzhen's manufacturing sector compared to traditional corporate environments in Beijing. It emphasizes the need for speed and adaptability in a fast-changing market driven by AI technology. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The concept of "AI headphones" is gaining traction, with manufacturers in Huaqiangbei quickly adapting to market demands and educating consumers through large order volumes [2][3] - The survival strategy in this sector is characterized by a "get on the bus and see where it goes" mentality, prioritizing immediate sales over perfecting products [2][6] - The industry is witnessing a shift where smaller brands are iterating faster than larger companies, with Huaqiangbei's supply chain evolving rapidly to meet market needs [3][23] Group 2: Workforce and Opportunities - The manufacturing sector in Shenzhen offers significant opportunities for individuals with basic skills, allowing them to achieve substantial financial rewards, such as monthly commissions of 30,000 yuan [5][12] - The industry is less competitive in terms of educational qualifications compared to tech and internet sectors, enabling quicker career advancement for capable individuals [5][12] Group 3: Product Development and Consumer Behavior - AI headphones are viewed as fast-moving consumer goods, with a focus on affordability and immediate user experience rather than high-end features [11][12] - The primary consumer demographic for AI headphones seeks low-cost options to experience new technology, often preferring to try products at a fraction of the price of premium brands [13][18] - The market for AI headphones is still developing, with a need for a leading brand to drive growth similar to how Apple has influenced the smartphone market [19][20] Group 4: Challenges and Innovations - Traditional manufacturers face challenges in adapting to AI technology, which may lead to some being left behind in the evolving landscape [4][24] - The importance of app functionality is highlighted, as consumer preferences shift towards integrated software solutions that enhance the user experience [25][26] - The rise of live commerce is unlocking new consumer needs, contributing to the unexpected popularity of niche products like AI sleep headphones [26]