From setup to unwindA balanced overview of carry trade mechanicsRead more 👇https://t.co/rHmJ1Prxdd ...

I have been getting a lot of comments on the channel talking about this $100 end of the year price prediction. A lot of you want to know my opinion on this. And I think by the end of this video, you guys might, you know, hate me, you might like me. I have no idea. But regardless of this, I'm going to give you guys my 100% real reaction to all of this. And I'm going to give you guys my opinion on these types of timeframe price predictions. And that's a very important thing to focus on here is the timeframe p ...

Joining us now for more on the markets and jobs, Joe Mato, president CIO at Newberger Berman. Joe, great to have you with us. Good >> to be here.Thank you. >> Um, it's interesting to get the jobs report now after the Fed decision. How important is this for you.>> I think the data is really important. I think the state of the labor market is one of the critical issues in terms of determining what the Fed path is going to be. And, you know, our sense is you're going to continue to see a grinding, weaker labor ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate changes are less significant than the broader implications of the bond market and long-term interest rates, particularly in light of rising U.S. federal debt and international rate dynamics [1][5][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve primarily controls very short-term interest rates, specifically the rates at which banks borrow from the central bank and each other [3]. - The Fed's actions can influence the entire yield curve, but many factors affecting interest rates are beyond its control [4]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - Recent movements in long-term U.S. Treasury bond yields and prices are critical, with potential significant impacts expected [5]. - The increasing federal debt has transitioned from a future concern to an immediate issue, exacerbated by legal challenges to tariffs and rising rates in Japan [6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The Ultrapro Short 20 Year Treasury -3X ETF (TTT) is highlighted as a potential investment vehicle for profiting from rising long-term rates, though it carries high leverage risks [8].

RT Yield Yak 🐃 🥛 (@yieldyak_)A huge part of the thesis for Agent-managed vaults is their ability to identify market opportunities in real time while no one else is looking (or you're sleeping).This past week aiAVAX has been a shining example of this, earning depositors >30% on their $AVAX thanks to to a simple $sAVAX carry trade created by recent market downturns. The strategy has been simple:1⃣ Acquiring sAVAX at a larger market discount than usual (~0.55%) created by sellers needing instant liquidity2⃣ Un ...

Core Insights - The message from prominent figures in finance emphasizes buying during market unease rather than chasing rallies driven by greed [1][2] - The Fear and Greed Index currently indicates a level of 20, reflecting fear in the crypto market [2] - The collapse of Japan's carry trade, a significant factor in global asset inflation, is highlighted as a critical issue [2][3] Market Dynamics - The Bank of Japan's recent rate hikes have led to government bond yields exceeding 1.7%, a level not seen since 2008, impacting the carry trade [3] - As borrowing costs rise, investors are facing increased yen liabilities while their foreign asset positions decline, leading to forced liquidations [3] Bitcoin Metrics - Bitcoin's Net Realized Profit and Loss is retreating towards the zero line, indicating a potential end to forced selling and the beginning of a stable phase [4] - Current Bitcoin prices around the $90K level suggest a balance between buyers and sellers, indicating a truce in the market [4][5] - Analysts describe the current market state as an equilibrium zone, where investors are reassessing their investment strategies [5] Accumulation Phase - If Bitcoin's Net Realized Profit and Loss remains above zero, it could signal the start of a stronger recovery base [5] - Recent price movements show Bitcoin slipping below significant historical levels, suggesting that investors are returning to accumulation [5]

Core Insights - The author has extensive experience in executive management, particularly in insurance/reinsurance and the Asia Pacific markets, with a focus on climate change and ESG [1] Group 1 - The author holds an honours degree in economics and politics, emphasizing economic development [1] - The author has 36 years of experience in executive management, indicating a deep understanding of market dynamics [1] - The author's investment activities are conducted in a personal capacity, suggesting independence in analysis [1]

Group 1: Carry Regime and Market Dynamics - The "Carry Bubble" framework suggests that major commodity cycles are influenced by a broader carry cycle, which is characterized by leveraging low-yielding currencies to invest in higher-yielding assets [3][4][5] - Carry trades are reliant on stable conditions and often yield small, steady gains until volatility disrupts the market, leading to significant losses [6][8] - The current market environment reflects a carry regime where large companies and growth stocks outperform value stocks, driven by low rates and low volatility [8][9][10] Group 2: Transition from Carry to Anti-Carry - Carry regimes are inherently unstable and tend to unwind abruptly, often triggered by shifts in monetary policy or significant increases in volatility [12][13][14] - Historical patterns indicate that major shifts in monetary regimes have consistently ended carry bubbles and initiated bull markets in resource equities [17][18][19] - The current administration's approach to monetary policy suggests a potential regime shift, which could lead to a rotation from carry-dependent assets to undervalued resource equities [19][20] Group 3: Natural Resource Equities - Natural resource equities typically struggle during carry regimes but may become attractive as the market transitions to an anti-carry environment [10][12] - The shift from carry to anti-carry could lead to a resurgence in resource equities, as capital flows back to assets with real scarcity and cash flow [25][24] - Historical examples show that after previous carry bubbles, resource equities gained significant market share, indicating a potential for similar outcomes in the current cycle [23][18] Group 4: Gold and Oil Market Dynamics - Gold has been a strong performer, with prices rising significantly, while the market is beginning to see a shift towards oil as a new opportunity [30][36] - The current gold-oil ratio indicates that oil is undervalued compared to historical standards, suggesting potential for a rally in oil prices [54][56] - The supply dynamics for oil are tightening, with non-OECD production growth slowing, which could lead to a significant price increase in the near future [56][62] Group 5: Commodity Price Trends - Commodity prices showed modest rebounds in the third quarter of 2025, with the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index rising by 1.3% and the North American Natural Resource Index advancing by 10.9% [58] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have outperformed other commodities, with gold prices increasing by 16% and silver by 30% in the third quarter [75] - The agricultural sector has seen mixed price movements, with corn prices expected to face downward pressure despite a potential bottoming out in the market [94][96][102]

@BenWerkman We're live!https://t.co/JeyY7xK6lrHorizon (@JoinHorizon):"I look at this dip and I don't see anything out of the ordinary" - @BenWerkman– Bitcoin’s price action and liquidity– Strive’s perpetual preferred equity model– Applying the USD → BTC carry trade at scaleWatch the latest episode of Over The Horizon ↓ https://t.co/FmdHQTYKJ6 ...

Market Analysis - Bitcoin's price action is considered within the ordinary range despite a dip [2] - Discussion of Bitcoin's liquidity [2] Investment Strategies - Exploration of Strive's perpetual preferred equity model [2] - Examination of applying the USD to BTC carry trade at scale [2]