Key Takeaways Bristol Myers emerges as the stronger near-term pick over Merck.BMY's new drugs, label expansions and $2B cost-savings plan support 2026 margins.MRK faces Gardasil weakness, Keytruda exclusivity loss and a $2.5B generic headwind.Merck & Co. (MRK) and Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) are major global drugmakers with expansive, diversified portfolios.Merck stands out for its leadership in oncology, complemented by strong positions in infectious diseases and vaccines.Bristol Myers, meanwhile, concentra ...

Core Insights - Novartis (NVS) announced positive results from the late-stage III ALIGN study for its kidney disease drug Vanrafia (atrasentan) [1][9] - The ALIGN study demonstrated that Vanrafia effectively slows the decline of kidney function in patients with IgA nephropathy [3][4] Study Results - Vanrafia showed a significant difference in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) change from baseline compared to placebo, with a 2.39 ml/min/1.73m² difference at week 136 and a 2.59 ml/min/1.73m² difference at week 132 [3][4] - The study included a subgroup of patients receiving SGLT2 inhibitors, who also exhibited similar benefits [4] Regulatory Status - Vanrafia received accelerated approval in the United States and China in 2025 for reducing proteinuria in adults with IgA nephropathy, with plans for traditional approval in 2026 [5][9] Product Portfolio - Novartis' renal portfolio includes Fabhalta (iptacopan), which is approved for treating adults with paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria and has also received accelerated approval for IgA nephropathy [6] - Fabhalta generated sales of $155 million in Q4 and $505 million in 2025 [7] Market Context - 2026 is a critical year for Novartis due to the patent expiry of its cardiovascular drug Entresto, which is the largest in its history [8] - Novartis shares have increased by 52.9% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 20.6% [8]

Core Insights - Bristol Myers' legacy portfolio is experiencing significant revenue decline due to generic competition, with a 15% year-over-year drop in Q4 revenues to $5.1 billion [1][9] - For the full year 2025, legacy portfolio revenues fell 15% to $21.8 billion, accounting for 45% of total revenues of $48.2 billion, with further expected decline of 12-16% in 2026 [2][9] - Eliquis, a key product in the legacy portfolio, saw sales growth of 8% in 2025, totaling $14.4 billion, and is projected to grow 10-15% in 2026 despite pricing changes [3][4][9] Legacy Portfolio Performance - The legacy portfolio includes Eliquis, Revlimid, Pomalyst, Sprycel, and Abraxane, with significant erosion from generics impacting revenues [1] - Eliquis continues to benefit from strong global demand, but overall growth is hindered by generic pressures and increased government-channel rebates in the U.S. [3] - The company anticipates a decline in Eliquis sales in 2027, projecting a decrease of $1.5-$2 billion [4] Competitive Landscape - Bristol Myers faces increasing competition in oncology from major pharmaceutical companies like Merck and Pfizer, which are advancing their own therapies [5][9] - Merck's Keytruda dominates the immuno-oncology space, accounting for around 50% of its pharmaceutical sales, while the company is developing bispecific antibodies for long-term growth [6] - Pfizer has a diverse oncology portfolio, including antibody-drug conjugates and biosimilars, targeting various cancer types [8] Financial Performance and Valuation - Bristol Myers' shares have increased by 32.3% over the past six months, outperforming the industry growth of 26.7% [11] - The company is trading at a price/earnings ratio of 9.96x forward earnings, which is lower than the large-cap pharma industry's average of 18.76x [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 EPS has risen to $6.13, while the estimate for 2027 has increased to $5.92 [13]

Core Insights - Novartis AG reported fourth-quarter 2025 net sales of $13.34 billion, a 1% year-over-year increase, but below Wall Street's estimate of $13.78 billion [1] - On a constant-currency basis, sales decreased by 1% [1] - The company faced a significant negative impact from generic competition, which reduced sales by 15 percentage points, including a 3 percentage point impact from revenue deduction adjustments in the U.S. related to Entresto and Promacta [1] Financial Performance - Pricing pressures negatively impacted sales by 4 percentage points, while currency fluctuations had a positive impact of 2 percentage points [2] - Core operating income increased by 1% to $4.93 billion, with a core operating income margin of 37.0%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points [2] - The growth in core operating income was supported by higher government grant income and lower selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses, although this was partially offset by increased research and development (R&D) expenses [2] Product Performance - Strong demand for key therapies contributed to growth, with Kisqali sales rising 44% to $1.32 billion, Kesimpta increasing 27% to $1.23 billion, and Cosentyx revenue up 11% to $1.81 billion [3] - Scemblix saw an 87% increase to $391 million, while Pluvicto advanced 70% to $605 million [3] Future Outlook - For fiscal 2026, Novartis anticipates low single-digit growth in net sales, while core operating income is expected to decrease in the low single digits [5] - The incoming CFO indicated that adjusted operating income is projected to grow significantly in the second half of 2026, which is expected to positively impact 2027 and beyond [5] - Novartis shares rose 1.79% to $152.54, reaching a new 52-week high [5]

Core Insights - Novartis AG reported fourth-quarter core earnings per share of $2.03, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.99 and up from $1.98 a year ago [1][7] - Core net income decreased by 1% to $3.9 billion, while revenues of $13.3 billion fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $13.7 billion, despite a 1% year-over-year increase [2][7] - The company faced revenue pressure from generic competition for key drugs Entresto and Promacta, leading to a 1% decline in sales on a constant currency basis [2][26] Financial Performance - Core operating income improved by 1% to $4.9 billion, supported by higher government grant income and lower SG&A expenses, although offset by increased R&D expenses [19] - For 2025, Novartis reported sales growth of 8% to $54.53 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with core EPS increasing by 17% to $8.98 [20] - Guidance for 2026 indicates low single-digit growth in net sales on a constant currency basis, with core operating income expected to decline in low single digits [21] Drug Performance - Cosentyx sales rose 11% to $1.8 billion, driven by strong demand across all regions [5] - Kisqali sales surged 44% to $1.32 billion, although it missed estimates, with underlying global growth at 54% [6][8] - Entresto sales plummeted 45% to $1.2 billion due to generic competition, while Promacta sales fell 63% to $226 million [8][13] - Pluvicto sales increased by 70% to $605 million, driven by strong demand following recent approvals [11] - Kesimpta sales grew 27% to $1.2 billion, while Jakavi sales increased by 8% to $555 million [10][12] Strategic Updates - Novartis announced plans to acquire Avidity Biosciences for $12 billion to enhance its late-stage neuroscience pipeline [22][23] - The acquisition aims to strengthen the company's position in addressing genetic neuromuscular diseases [28] - A collaboration agreement with the U.S. government was established to reduce drug prices while supporting ongoing investments in manufacturing and R&D [25] Market Position - Novartis shares have gained 42.1% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 19% [2] - The company is navigating significant patent expirations, with a focus on key growth drivers such as Kisqali, Kesimpta, Pluvicto, and Scemblix [26][27]

Novo Nordisk (NVO) shares crashed on Tuesday after the Danish drugmaker issued a sobering outlook for 2026 that caught Wall Street flat-footed. According to the pharma giant, its top- and bottom-line growth will decelerate this year as its “Most Favored Nations” agreement with the U.S. lowers weight-loss drug prices in its largest market. More News from Barchart At the time of writing, Novo Nordisk stock is trading some 20% below its year-to-date high. www.barchart.com What This 2026 Outlook Really M ...

Core Insights - Bristol Myers (BMY) is focusing on its growth portfolio, including drugs like Reblozyl, to drive revenue growth in upcoming quarterly results [1][8] - Reblozyl, co-developed with Merck, has annualized sales exceeding $2 billion and is a significant growth driver for the company [1] Sales Performance - Reblozyl generated sales of $1.66 billion in the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a 35% year-over-year increase [3][8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter Reblozyl sales is $636 million, while the model estimate is $641 million [3] Competitive Landscape - Keros Therapeutics is developing elritercept for transfusion-dependent anemia, which may compete with Reblozyl [5] - Reblozyl also faces competition from established erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) like Procrit [6] Financial Outlook - BMY's legacy portfolio is under pressure from generic competition, impacting sales of drugs like Revlimid and Pomalyst [4][8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 EPS has decreased to $6.09 from $6.53 over the past 60 days [11] Valuation Metrics - BMY is trading at a price/earnings ratio of 9.23x forward earnings, which is lower than the large-cap pharma industry's average of 18.42x [10]

Core Viewpoint - Merck reported strong fourth-quarter earnings driven by demand for its cancer immunotherapy Keytruda, but provided a modest 2026 outlook that fell short of Wall Street expectations due to upcoming patent expirations and generic competition [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the fourth quarter, Merck posted net income of $2.96 billion, or $1.19 per share, compared to $3.74 billion, or $1.48 per share, in the same period last year [4]. - Adjusted earnings for the fourth quarter were $2.04 per share, slightly above the expected $2.01 per share [6]. - Revenue for the quarter was $16.4 billion, a 5% increase from the previous year, and exceeded expectations of $16.19 billion [5][6]. 2026 Outlook - Merck anticipates 2026 revenue between $65.5 billion and $67 billion, lower than analysts' expectations of $67.6 billion [2]. - The company expects adjusted earnings per share to be between $5 and $5.15, compared to the analyst estimate of $5.36 [2]. Acquisition and Charges - The 2026 guidance includes a one-time charge of approximately $9 billion, or around $3.65 per share, related to the acquisition of Cidara, which is developing a flu prevention drug [3]. Cost Management - Merck is implementing a cost-cutting plan aimed at reducing expenses by $3 billion by the end of 2027 to offset revenue losses from the upcoming patent expiration of Keytruda in 2028 [5]. Drug Pricing Deal - Under a "most favored nation" deal, Merck will sell existing treatments to Medicaid patients at the lowest price offered in other developed nations and will receive a three-year reprieve from tariffs [4].

Core Insights - Bristol Myers Squibb Company (BMY) has shown strong performance recently, with shares increasing by 13.1% over the past three months, although this is slightly below the industry's growth of 15.2% [1][4] - The company has outperformed the sector and the S&P 500 during the same period [1][3] Financial Performance - BMY reported better-than-expected Q3 results on October 30, driven by increased demand for key drugs such as Opdivo, Breyanzi, Reblozyl, and Camzyos [4][8] - The company raised its revenue guidance, reflecting strong performance and giving investors renewed confidence [4][8] Growth Portfolio - BMY's Growth Portfolio includes drugs like Opdivo, Reblozyl, and Breyanzi, which have maintained strong top-line growth [5][9] - Opdivo sales in the U.S. are bolstered by its launch in MSI-high colorectal cancer and growth in non-small cell lung cancer, with international sales benefiting from label expansions [6][7] - Reblozyl is annualizing over $2 billion in sales, while Breyanzi is also performing well with annualized sales exceeding $1 billion [9][10] New Drug Approvals and Collaborations - The approval of Opdivo Qvantig for subcutaneous use has enhanced BMY's immuno-oncology portfolio, with expectations for global sales to increase in the high single-digit to low double-digit range by 2025 [7] - BMY's acquisition of Orbital Therapeutics for $1.5 billion will add OTX-201, a promising RNA immunotherapy candidate, to its pipeline [14][15] - Collaborations with BioNTech for bispecific antibodies targeting PD-1 and VEGF are also in progress, indicating a focus on innovative cancer treatments [16] Legacy Portfolio Challenges - BMY's legacy portfolio is facing challenges due to generic competition, with expected declines of 15-17% in sales for legacy drugs by 2025 [12][8] - The legacy portfolio includes Eliquis, which is a significant contributor to revenue but is also under pressure from generics [13] Valuation and Estimates - BMY's shares are currently trading at a price/earnings ratio of 8.78x forward earnings, which is lower than the large-cap pharma industry's average of 16.99x [17] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 EPS has increased to $6.51 from $6.43 over the past 60 days, indicating positive sentiment [19] Investment Outlook - BMY is considered a safe haven for investors in the biotech sector, with strong performance from its growth drugs stabilizing revenue amid generic competition [21] - The company offers an attractive dividend yield of 4.73%, making it a compelling option for existing investors [22]

Core Insights - Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) has seen a 7.2% increase in stock price over the past month, outperforming the industry growth of 3.8% and the S&P 500 Index [1][2][8] - The company's strong performance is attributed to better-than-expected Q3 results driven by increased demand for key drugs such as Opdivo, Breyanzi, Reblozyl, and Camzyos, leading to an upward revision in revenue guidance [3][8] - Despite recent gains, BMY's year-to-date stock performance has been disappointing, with a decline from a 52-week high of $63.33 in March to a low of $42.52 in late October [4] Financial Performance - BMY's Growth Portfolio, which includes drugs like Opdivo and Reblozyl, reported an 18% year-over-year sales increase, totaling $6.9 billion [5] - Opdivo sales in the U.S. are driven by strong launches in specific cancer indications, while global sales are expected to grow in the high single-digit to low double-digit range [6][8] - The thalassemia drug Reblozyl has annualized sales exceeding $2 billion, and Breyanzi's sales are also strong, exceeding $1 billion annually [9][10] Drug Approvals and Pipeline - BMY's recent approval of Opdivo Qvantig for subcutaneous use has enhanced its immuno-oncology portfolio, with strong initial uptake [6] - The company has also launched Cobenfy, a new treatment for schizophrenia, which has generated $105 million in sales year-to-date and is expected to contribute significantly to revenue in the future [10][11] Legacy Portfolio and Challenges - The Legacy Portfolio continues to decline, with a 12% decrease in sales to $5.4 billion, primarily due to generic competition affecting drugs like Revlimid and Pomalyst [12] - BMY anticipates a further decline of approximately 15% to 17% in the Legacy Portfolio by 2025 [13] Strategic Collaborations and Acquisitions - BMY announced the acquisition of Orbital Therapeutics for $1.5 billion, which will add a promising RNA immunotherapy candidate to its pipeline [14][15] - The company has also partnered with BioNTech for the co-development of a bispecific antibody targeting cancer, indicating a focus on innovative treatment approaches [16][17] Valuation and Estimates - BMY's current price/earnings ratio stands at 7.67x, below its historical mean and the large-cap pharma industry's average of 15.57x, suggesting it may be undervalued [18] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 EPS has slightly decreased to $6.48 from $6.51 over the past month [20] Investment Outlook - BMY's strong performance in the first nine months of 2025, driven by key drugs, positions it as a relatively safe investment in the biotech sector [22] - The company offers an attractive dividend yield of 5.31%, which may appeal to existing investors [22]