Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Waller as the new Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump has led to a significant drop in precious metal prices, indicating the market's reaction to potential changes in monetary policy [1][8]. Group 1: Nomination Process - Trump officially announced the nomination of Waller on January 30, to succeed Powell, whose term ends in May [1]. - Prior to Waller, several candidates were considered, including Hassett, who was initially favored but lost ground after Trump's meeting with Waller on December 11 [2]. - Following the meeting with Waller, Trump expressed that Waller was the best candidate for the Federal Reserve Chairman position [2]. Group 2: Candidate Background - Waller, aged 55, has a notable family background, being related to Ronald Lauder, a significant donor to the Republican Party and a long-time friend of Trump [4]. - Waller's academic credentials include a bachelor's degree from Stanford and a law degree from Harvard, with a career spanning government, business, and academia [4][5]. - He previously served as a special assistant for economic policy under President George W. Bush and became the youngest Federal Reserve Governor at age 35 [4]. Group 3: Policy Stance - Waller is viewed as a hawkish figure, advocating for both balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts, arguing that the Federal Reserve must take responsibility for inflation [7]. - His approach contrasts with Hassett's more aggressive stance on rate cuts, which raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [7]. - Waller's nomination is seen as a potential compromise between Wall Street interests and Trump's economic policies, as he supports rate cuts while also advocating for reducing the Fed's balance sheet to control inflation [7]. Group 4: Market Reaction - Following Waller's nomination, the U.S. dollar strengthened significantly, while gold prices experienced a notable decline [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Walsh's "pragmatic monetary policy" signals the Federal Reserve's commitment to controlling inflation while addressing Trump's interest rate cut demands, aiming to correct market distortions caused by excessive QE and achieve convergence in a "K"-shaped economy [1] Group 2 - Walsh's notable policy proposition is "rate cuts + balance sheet reduction," emphasizing the need for the Federal Reserve to take responsibility for inflation, which he attributes to prolonged QE, advocating for QT to control inflation and create space for rate cuts once risks are mitigated [1][3] - The balance between the White House and Wall Street is highlighted, as Trump's criticism of Powell led to Walsh being favored for his ability to maintain Fed independence while aligning with Trump's rate cut desires [1][2] Group 3 - The concept of QT is described as "responsible balance sheet management," aimed at correcting the "infinite support" approach of monetary policy on the demand side, while rate cuts are intended to enhance supply capabilities from an industrial policy perspective [2] - Evidence supporting QT's effectiveness in controlling inflation is noted, with CPI dropping from 9% to around 3% following the Fed's announcement of passive balance sheet reduction in 2022 [3] - Challenges in transitioning to a "tight reserve mechanism" are acknowledged, as liquidity issues may constrain QT implementation until bank reserves return to adequate levels [3]

消息：日本央行官员最早可能于下个月开始出售央行持有的大量ETF。知情人士透露，日本央行希望出售动作对市场的影响能像2000年代出售陷入困境银行股票那样，几乎不引起市场察觉#行情 日元日内继续走强，美元兑日元跌近0.5%至155.10。🗒️日本央行9月制定了ETF出售计划，以每年3300亿日元的账面价值为基础，按照这个速度出售，将需要112年才能出售完毕。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):日本央行开始计划出售ETF日本央行周五如期维持利率不变，宣布开始出售其持有的ETF与日本REITS持仓，出售决定获得一致投票通过。将按账面价值，每年出售3300亿日元的ETF，后续调整。#行情 日元短线走强，美元兑日元短线走低50点。日本央行转向QT减少日元供应，且为加息作准备，推动日元升值。 https://t.co/iiqhIlVfNn ...

It's the first days of the month, which are usually bearish.Then, there's also the case that QT has been reduced.This takes time.Now, what's important in the coming week:- Unemployment dataThis is the primarily trigger for the FED to decide whether or not rate cuts are sufficient.Labor > Inflation.If the unemployment data rallies more than expected, the sounds of a recession will start to soar and that will mean that we're likely going to be getting QE.The past period has been volatile and markets have been ...

Liquidity & Market Dynamics - Government shutdown starting October 1st initiates a Treasury General Account (TGA) build of $150 billion to $965 billion, draining cash from the market [1] - Reverse Repo Program (RRP) builds by $20 billion this week, causing bank reserves to fall to "ample" lows, leading to tight funding markets [1] - Tight funding markets are indicated by increased Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) spreads and record $10 billion usage of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) [1] - Bitcoin's choppy range is hypersensitive to liquidity, preventing a breakout [1] - Post-month end, RRP decreases will return liquidity, and a TGA drawdown in mid-November will flood the market with cash [1] - Quantitative Tightening (QT) ends December 1st, leading to Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion [2] Crypto Market Impact - A liquidity tailwind is expected after the end of QT [2] - Bitcoin is expected to pump upwards due to increased liquidity [2] - The broader crypto market is also expected to pump upwards [2]

The markets are correcting down, which is standard pre-FOMC procedure.#Bitcoin & #Altcoins are always going down due to risk-off appetite.My advice?Don't trade leverage going into FOMC tonight.There will be a lot of fake moves taking place, before the actual move occurs.If there's another rate cut taking place + QT stops, that's extremely bullish for the outcome of risk-on assets.Again, I think that the recent correction on Gold has shown that this shift is happening already. ...

A Fed rate cut is almost certain Wednesday—but analysts said ending QT could be the real Bitcoin catalyst as inflation tolerance rises.Read more: https://t.co/946Z08TEkn ...

Market Trends - CPI release is unlikely to cause a significant market movement for Bitcoin due to a crucial resistance zone [1] - Expectation of breaking through the resistance in the upcoming week [1] Monetary Policy - Anticipation of the FOMC ending Quantitative Tightening (QT) and implementing rate cuts [1] Risk Factors - Potential government shutdown is approaching [1]

Market Outlook - JP Morgan expects the Fed to end Quantitative Tightening (QT) during this month's FOMC meeting [1] - The end of QT is considered bullish for markets [1]

Selling into the official QT pause?Could never be me. ...