Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the policy stance of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Walsh, emphasizing "pragmatic monetarism" which aims to control inflation while addressing President Trump's interest in interest rate cuts, ultimately seeking to correct market distortions caused by excessive quantitative easing (QE) and achieve convergence in the "K"-shaped economy [2]. Group 1: "Balance Sheet Reduction + Rate Cuts": New Fed Chairman's Policy Proposals - Walsh's notable policy proposal is "rate cuts + balance sheet reduction" (QT), asserting that the Fed must take responsibility for inflation, which he attributes to prolonged QE post-crisis. He believes QT is necessary to control inflation, and once inflation risks are mitigated, it will create room for rate cuts [3][7]. - The policy proposals reflect a reform in monetary policy mechanisms. Walsh criticizes the Fed's large balance sheet, claiming QE distorts market incentives. He advocates for reducing bank reserves through balance sheet reduction to enhance lending willingness, transitioning from a "sufficient reserves" to a "scarce reserves" framework [4][8]. Group 2: The White House and Wall Street Balance: Why Trump Chose Walsh - Trump's criticism of current Chairman Powell as "Mr. Too Late" led to speculation about other candidates, but Walsh, favored by Wall Street, offers a balance between maintaining Fed independence and aligning with Trump's rate cut demands. His "pragmatic monetarism" reflects a commitment to controlling inflation while accommodating Trump's interests [4][12]. - The QT approach is seen as "responsible balance sheet management," correcting the idea of "infinite support" for demand-side policies, while rate cuts aim to enhance supply capabilities from an industrial policy perspective. This aligns with Trump's supply-side reform agenda [4][12]. Group 3: Pragmatic Monetarism: Speculations on Walsh's Governance Approach - Based on the quantity theory of money, QT is indeed a tool for controlling inflation. Evidence includes the CPI dropping from 9% to around 3% after the Fed announced passive balance sheet reduction in 2022. However, QT has limits, as recent liquidity issues in the repo market have led to a halt in QT and the initiation of Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) [5][16]. - Operationally, a series of deregulatory measures for banks, such as relaxing capital constraints and optimizing the Fed's temporary discount tools, could provide more room for QT. However, transitioning to a "scarce reserves" framework is challenging, and liquidity issues will constrain QT until bank reserves return to adequate levels. Trump's policies for manufacturing and real estate require credit expansion, which depends on sufficient reserve levels [5][16].

文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 但是 沃什 的主张在现实层面将面临重重阻力。一是来自特朗普的。特朗普提名 沃什 担任下一届美联储主席，两人很可能在某些方面达成了 "共识"。如 果未来 沃什 的政策主张，妨碍了特朗普的行动，那 沃什 无疑会面临比现任鲍威尔更大的压力。二是来自美联储内部的，倘若 沃什 真的推动缩表，那他 在美联储内部将面临其他两股力量的制衡，不支持降息支持扩表的，降息扩表并举的。 更重要的是，大规模缩表，美联储能做到吗，美联储扩表购买的主要是美国国债，如果缩表，谁来承接美国政府的债务？ 获利盘集中抛售 。 2026年 1月 ， 黄金 价格 累计涨幅 已超 30%，白银涨超 达 60%，短期投机盘获利了结 ， 这 引发 了市场的 抛售潮。 相比之下， 白银 因流动性 相对较 差、杠杆更高， 导致 跌幅 更为显著 。 杠杆资金踩踏效应 。 一些 交易所提高保证金比例，触发程序化止损 交易 ，形成 "抛售→下跌→强制平仓"恶性循环，这放大了 市场的 波动程度。 贵金属前景展望 未来 1至3个月，贵金属价格可能以 震荡调整为主 ， 市场需消化政策不确定性，白银因波动剧烈或弱反弹后延续震荡，黄金支撑位在 47 ...

智通财经APP获悉，在有媒体报道称，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普正准备于当地时间周五上午提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什(Kevin Warsh)出任下一任美联储主席之后，金融市场似乎一致认定这一长期偏鹰派立场的人选将比其他人选以及现任主席鲍威尔更鹰 派，且他本人极有可能拿出"缩表+降息"的不利于股债市场流动性扩张的独特政策组合，美元随美国国债收益率一同迅速走 高。几乎同一时间，美国三大股指期货跌幅扩大，本周持续强劲的原油在流动性缩减预期之下迅速转跌，贵金属以及工业金属 价格则在周五出现大幅下跌。 预测市场Polymarket最新显示，美联储前理事Kevin Warsh被特朗普提名为美联储新主席的概率飙升至95%。。当天稍早前，美 国总统特朗普表示，计划于当地时间30日上午(北京时间今晚)公布下一任美联储主席的正式提名。 如上图所示，预测市场对沃什出任下一任美联储主席的概率飙升——来自贝莱德的里德尔在近期作为领跑者之后热度回落。 博彩市场也越来越偏向沃什。Polymarket显示，其成为下一任美联储主席的概率在亚洲周五时段升至95%以上，而对贝莱德 (BlackRock Inc.)高管里克·里德尔的支持则大幅减弱。随着里 ...