Dorman Products (NasdaqGS:DORM) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 26, 2026 08:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsAlex Whitelam - VP of Investor RelationsDavid Hession - CFOKevin Olsen - CEOTristan Thomas-Martin - Equity Research AssociateConference Call ParticipantsBret Jordan - Managing Director and Senior Equity Research AnalystDavid Lentz - Managing Director and Senior Research AnalystGary Prestopino - Senior Research AnalystJeff Lee - AnalystJustin Ages - Director and Equity Research AnalystScott Stember - Manag ...

Trade Agreement Overview - The trade agreement between the US and Indonesia is expected to lower US tariffs and facilitate the purchase of approximately $33 billion in American goods by Indonesia [1][2] - Indonesia will avoid a threatened 32% tariff and instead face a 19% rate for most goods, enhancing trade relations [2][8] Economic Impact on Indonesia - Indonesia will eliminate levies on over 99% of US goods and remove non-tariff barriers, which is anticipated to narrow its $16 billion trade surplus with the US [4][8] - The agreement includes significant imports from the US, such as $15 billion in energy, $13.5 billion in commercial aircraft, and $4.5 billion in agricultural commodities [5] Benefits for the US - The pact aims to expand access to Indonesia's consumer market of over 280 million people, providing American companies with a more level playing field [3][9] - The agreement also addresses critical minerals, allowing US companies to extract them under favorable terms, which aligns with US efforts to reduce supply-chain dependence on China [7] Regulatory and Investment Changes - Indonesia will reform its pre-shipment inspection processes and eliminate tariffs on digital services, facilitating smoother trade [6] - The country has committed to facilitating $10 billion in outbound direct investment to the US, including in engineering, construction, and energy projects [6] Context and Challenges - The agreement comes amid market headwinds for Indonesia, including concerns over governance and credit outlook, which could impact investor confidence [11] - Lower duties may support foreign-exchange inflows as the Indonesian rupiah trades near an all-time low against the dollar [12]

Core Insights - The fashion industry is facing significant uncertainties due to U.S. trade policies, particularly regarding tariffs and trade agreements, which are expected to impact sourcing and operational costs in 2026 [4][6][13]. Trade Agreements and Policies - The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is set for a review process in 2026, which may lead to renegotiations or new bilateral trade deals under the Trump administration [2][3]. - The expiration of the African Growth and Opportunity Act and the Haiti HELP/HOPE program in September 2025 raises concerns about their renewal and the implications for U.S. apparel sourcing from these regions [1][8]. Industry Sentiment and Expectations - A McKinsey survey indicates that 40% of fashion executives view disruptive U.S. trade policy as a top risk, an increase from 25% the previous year [4]. - Despite challenges, 25% of fashion leaders believe industry conditions will improve in 2026, up from 20% the prior year [5]. Tariff Impacts - 76% of fashion executives anticipate that higher tariffs and trade disruptions will shape the industry in 2026, with expected short-term sourcing price increases of 35% for apparel and 37% for leather goods due to tariffs [13][19]. - The Supreme Court's decision regarding Trump's tariff imposition methods could introduce further uncertainty, potentially leading to tariff refunds for U.S. importers [15][16]. Cost Management Strategies - Fashion brands are prioritizing cost management and sourcing cost control, with 45% of executives indicating that sourcing costs are under the most pressure [19][21]. - Companies are diversifying their supply chains to mitigate risks associated with tariffs, with many seeking vendors that offer speed-to-market and flexibility [22][24]. Technological Advancements - The use of artificial intelligence (AI) in sourcing, logistics, and inventory management is expected to rise, helping brands optimize operations and enhance supply chain traceability [27][30]. - AI tools may facilitate better inventory management and operational efficiency, supporting the industry's shift towards a more digitalized sourcing process [28][31].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q4 net sales were $1.9 billion, down 2.7% year-over-year, with core sales declining 4.1% [20] - For the full year, net sales were $7.2 billion, a decline of 5%, and core sales decreased by 4.6% [23] - Normalized gross margin for Q4 was 33.9%, down 70 basis points year-over-year, while normalized operating margin was 8.7%, up 160 basis points [21][22] - Normalized earnings per share for 2025 were $0.57 compared to $0.68 in the prior year [25] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Learning and Development segment showed resilience, with strong performance from brands like Sharpie and Expo [10] - The Baby segment performed well, with Graco's market share increasing by 160 basis points for the full year and over 350 basis points in Q4 [12] - The Home and Commercial segment faced pressure, particularly in the Kitchen category, but promotional activities and selective price adjustments improved performance in Q4 [13] - Outdoor and Recreation segment stabilized, with improved gross and operating margins due to better inventory management and execution [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Core sales in Argentina grew slightly in Q4, while Brazil finished the quarter down only mid-single digits, showing improvement from earlier in the year [20] - The overall market environment remains challenging, with expectations of a 2% decline in categories for 2026 [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on disciplined commercial execution and converting strengthened capabilities into improved performance while maintaining margin and cash discipline [16] - A global productivity plan was announced to enhance competitiveness and support long-term value creation [9] - The company plans to launch over 25 Tier 1 and Tier 2 innovations in 2026, the strongest lineup since the Jarden acquisition [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged that 2025 was more challenging than anticipated due to tariffs affecting consumer behavior and retail dynamics [8] - The company remains confident in its turnaround strategy and expects to outperform category growth in 2026 despite external challenges [16][19] - Management noted that consumer spending trends vary by income level, with higher-income consumers spending more on general merchandise [53] Other Important Information - The company incurred $174 million in gross cash tariff costs in 2025, with an expected reduction to $130 million in 2026 [29] - The company is planning for normalized operating margin to expand in line with its long-term financial model [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you help us understand your level of visibility on shelf space wins and confidence in sales growth? - Management indicated that they are planning for category declines but expect to outperform due to strong innovation and secured shelf space wins starting in Q2 [41][46] Question: What are the pricing interventions in the Baby and Kitchen categories? - Management explained that they adjusted pricing in response to tariff rollbacks and launched new products with competitive pricing to drive growth [49][51] Question: How do you see the competitive landscape and retailer engagement evolving? - Management noted that higher-income consumers are spending more, while lower-income consumers have pulled back, impacting category growth [53] Question: What is the long-term growth outlook for your categories? - Management suggested that with strong innovation and brand building, they aim for a long-term growth rate of 2%-3% in core sales [66]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fourth quarter net sales were $1.9 billion, down 2.7% year-over-year, with core sales declining 4.1% [20] - Full-year net sales were $7.2 billion, a decline of 5%, and core sales decreased by 4.6% [24] - Normalized gross margin for the fourth quarter was 33.9%, down 70 basis points year-over-year, but up 730 basis points on a three-year stacked basis [21][22] - Normalized operating margin for the fourth quarter was 8.7%, up 160 basis points year-over-year [22] - Normalized earnings per share for 2025 were $0.57, compared to $0.68 in the prior year [26] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Learning and Development segment showed resilience, with strong performance from brands like Sharpie and Expo [11] - The Baby segment performed well, with Graco's market share increasing by 160 basis points for the full year and over 350 basis points in the fourth quarter [12] - The Home and Commercial segment faced pressure, particularly in the Kitchen category, but promotional activity and selective price adjustments improved performance in the fourth quarter [13] - Outdoor and Recreation segment stabilized, with gross and operating margins improving as the year progressed [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Core sales in Argentina grew slightly in the fourth quarter due to economic recovery, while Brazil's core sales were down only mid-single digits [20] - The overall market environment remains challenging, with expectations of a 2% decline in categories for 2026 [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company has focused on rebuilding front-end capabilities and strengthening back-end capabilities while reducing complexity [5] - A global productivity plan was announced to enhance competitiveness and support long-term value creation [9] - The company plans to launch over 25 Tier 1 and Tier 2 innovations in 2026, the strongest lineup since the Jarden acquisition [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged that 2025 was more challenging than anticipated due to tariffs affecting consumer behavior and retail dynamics [8] - The company remains confident in its ability to outperform category growth and gain market share, despite external challenges [16] - Management expects normalized operating margin to expand in line with their financial model, with a focus on overhead reduction [31] Other Important Information - The company incurred $174 million in gross cash tariff costs in 2025, with expectations of a $130 million impact in 2026 [30] - The company plans to reduce its net leverage ratio by about half a turn, moving closer to being an investment-grade debt issuer [33] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: Can you help us understand your level of visibility on shelf space wins and confidence in sales growth? - Management indicated that they are planning for category declines but expect to outperform due to strong innovation and secured shelf space wins starting in Q2 [41][46] Question: What are the dynamics around pricing interventions in the baby and kitchen categories? - Management explained that they adjusted pricing in response to tariff rollbacks and are optimistic about the impact of new product launches [49][51] Question: How do you see the consumer spending trends affecting your categories? - Management noted that higher-income consumers are spending more, while lower-income consumers have pulled back, but they do not expect category growth to improve in 2026 [53][54] Question: What is the long-term structural growth rate expected for your categories? - Management suggested that with strong innovation and brand building, they aim for a growth rate of 2%-3% over the long term [66][68]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fourth quarter net sales were $1.9 billion, down 2.7% year-over-year, and core sales declined 4.1% [17] - Full-year net sales were $7.2 billion, a decline of 5%, and core sales decreased by 4.6% [21] - Normalized gross margin for the fourth quarter was 33.9%, down 70 basis points year-over-year, while normalized operating margin was 8.7%, up 160 basis points [18][19] - Normalized earnings per share for 2025 were $0.57 compared to $0.68 in the prior year [23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Learning and Development segment showed resilience, with strong performance from brands like Sharpie and Expo [9] - The Baby segment improved significantly, with Graco's market share increasing by 160 basis points for the full year and over 350 basis points in the fourth quarter [9] - The Home and Commercial segment faced challenges, particularly in the Kitchen category, but promotional activities and selective price adjustments helped stabilize performance [10] - Outdoor and Recreation segment showed stabilization with improved gross and operating margins as the year progressed [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Core sales in Argentina grew slightly in the fourth quarter due to economic recovery, while Brazil's core sales were down only mid-single digits [18] - The overall market environment remains challenging, with expectations of a 2% decline in categories for 2026 [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company has focused on rebuilding front-end capabilities and strengthening back-end capabilities while reducing complexity [4] - A global productivity plan was announced to enhance competitiveness and support long-term value creation [6] - The company aims to convert strengthened capabilities into improved performance while maintaining margin and cash discipline [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged that 2025 was more challenging than anticipated due to tariffs impacting consumer behavior and retail dynamics [5] - The company expects core sales to decline by approximately 2% for 2026 but is confident in outperforming the category due to strong innovation and distribution improvements [12][30] - Management highlighted the importance of innovation, with over 25 Tier 1 and Tier 2 launches planned for 2026 [13] Other Important Information - The company reduced its China sourcing exposure to below 10%, enhancing supply chain resilience [6] - Full-year operating cash flow guidance for 2026 is set at $350-$400 million, reflecting a 40% increase over 2025 [27] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: Can you help us understand your level of visibility on shelf space wins and confidence in sales growth? - The company is planning for category declines but expects to outperform due to strong innovation and secured shelf space wins that will kick in starting in Q2 [37][40] Question: Can you elaborate on the pricing interventions in the baby and kitchen categories? - The company adjusted pricing in response to tariff rollbacks and is implementing a 15% price reduction on Rubbermaid EasyStore lids to remain competitive [42][44] Question: What are the expectations for category growth in the long term? - The company anticipates that real income growth and product life cycles will contribute to category recovery, aiming for a long-term growth rate of 2%-3% [58]

Summary of China-Japan Trade Tensions Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the trade relationship between China and Japan, highlighting the economic implications of ongoing tensions between the two countries. Key Points and Arguments Trade Relationship Dynamics - 17% of Japanese exports are directed to China, while only 4% of China's exports go to Japan [2] - Japanese firms are more exposed to China, with 4.8% of their revenues coming from China compared to 0.6% for Chinese firms from Japan [2] - Despite a trade deficit with Japan, China's reliance on Japan for inputs has decreased over the years [2] Base Case Scenario - The base case anticipates limited escalation of tensions, as China is likely to calibrate trade measures to avoid significant supply chain disruptions, which would also impact its own economy [3] - Both economies are currently weak, with growth primarily driven by exports rather than domestic demand [3] Potential Escalation Scenarios - If tensions escalate, China could: 1. Expand the dual-use export-control list to include more rare earths [4] 2. Initiate anti-dumping measures against Japanese imports [4] 3. Discourage purchases of Japanese consumer goods [4] 4. Implement a temporary ban on rare earths for civilian use [4] - Such actions could lead to downside risks for Japan's growth, particularly affecting sectors like autos, electronics, and chemicals [5] Equity Market Implications - The current market backdrop is viewed as a moderate net negative for both China and Japan, but not significant enough to alter overall investment strategies [6] - Japan maintains a small overweight position (FX unhedged) while China is underweight, with Japanese defense stocks performing well [6] Macroeconomic Considerations - The Bank of Japan (BoJ) may adopt a cautious stance in response to heightened uncertainty, monitoring trade and production data closely [16] - Fiscal support for supply-chain resilience is expected to increase, focusing on diversification and strategic inventories [16] Medium-Term Implications - Japan is actively diversifying its supply sources for rare earths, including agreements with Australian and French companies to reduce dependence on China [17] - The Japanese government has established a policy to ensure stable supply of critical minerals, designating 35 resources as critical commodities [66] Market and Currency Implications - If China expands export controls, it could lead to a deterioration in risk sentiment, affecting near-term BoJ rate hike expectations and potentially causing JPY depreciation [20][21] - The current measures have already led to a significant drop in Chinese tourist arrivals in Japan and reduced flight capacity [25] Supply Chain Vulnerabilities - Japan's exposure to China's export control list is manageable, with only a limited number of products affected [23] - Key products where Japan relies on China include tungsten, magnesium, and hydrofluoric acid [23] Counter-Measures from Japan - Japan is currently not considering direct counter-measures like tariffs due to the high economic costs involved, focusing instead on structural responses [14] - Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has protested against China's measures but has not indicated plans for punitive actions [50] Conclusion - The ongoing trade tensions between China and Japan present both risks and opportunities, with significant implications for various sectors and the broader economic landscape. Monitoring developments in trade policies and supply chain dynamics will be crucial for investors and policymakers alike.

Core Insights - A significant trend is emerging where approximately 80% of US companies are expected to bring manufacturing back to the US, indicating a shift towards reshoring and nearshoring practices [1][3] - The concept of "Made in America" is evolving into "Made to Win," suggesting that companies that do not rebuild domestic manufacturing capacity may lose market share [2][3] Manufacturing Outlook - 29% of CEOs have already brought back work to the US, with a larger percentage planning to do so, highlighting a competitive advantage for those who reshore [3] - The return of manufacturing is not solely dependent on Federal Reserve rate cuts; factors such as AI advancements and national security concerns are also driving this trend [5][7] AI and Automation - By 2026, AI is expected to reshape the manufacturing workforce, transitioning from pilot projects to integral operations, which will enhance productivity and favor localized manufacturing [6] - The integration of AI in manufacturing is anticipated to create more automation, further supporting the trend of bringing work back to the US [6] National Security Concerns - Manufacturing is increasingly viewed as a national security issue, with bipartisan support for ensuring domestic capabilities in critical industries [7] - This perspective is consistent across different administrations, emphasizing the importance of self-sufficiency in manufacturing [7] Supply Chain Strategies - Companies are diversifying their global supply chains, moving away from reliance on a single country to ensure resilience against various risks [10][12] - The focus is on establishing operations in multiple locations to maintain supply chain integrity regardless of political or economic changes [10][12] Workforce Dynamics - The narrative around blue-collar jobs is shifting, with high-tech manufacturing roles becoming more attractive to younger generations, particularly in the context of AI integration [13][14] - These high-paying, high-demand jobs are critical for national security and are expected to draw interest from Gen Z workers [14]

Core Insights - The completion of the PK330 Bridge by China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC) marks a significant milestone in the development of a new railway aimed at unlocking Algeria's mineral wealth [1][3] - The railway, spanning 950km, connects the Gara Djebilet iron ore deposit to the industrial hub of Bechar, facilitating the export of iron ore [1][4] Group 1: Project Details - The PK330 Bridge is a 6km (3.7-mile) structure and is described as the "most technically demanding railway engineering feat ever undertaken in North Africa" [2][3] - The entire railway route is expected to be operational by January, with the Gara Djebilet mine projected to produce between 2 million and 4 million tonnes of iron ore, scaling up to 50 million tonnes per year by 2040 [4][5] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The railway is part of China's Belt and Road Initiative and is expected to enhance Algeria's export capabilities, particularly to Mediterranean ports [3][5] - China's strategic push to develop African iron ore deposits aims to diversify supply chains and reduce reliance on traditional suppliers like Australia and Brazil [7] Group 3: Regional Developments - The Algerian iron ore production is set to commence shortly after the start of shipments from Guinea's Simandou project, indicating a broader trend of increased sourcing from Africa [6] - The Mbalam-Nabeba project, a significant cross-border deposit, is progressing under new management, highlighting ongoing Chinese investment in African mining [8]

Industry Overview - The demand for graphite is surging due to its critical role in lithium-ion batteries, which power devices from phones to electric vehicles, amid ongoing trade tensions with China [2][8] - The U.S. government is increasingly focused on securing a stable supply of critical minerals, including graphite, as part of efforts to reduce reliance on foreign sources [9][10] Company Developments - Titan Mining Corp is planning to mine graphite from a deposit in northern New York, with commercial sales expected by 2028 [2][4] - The company believes it can supply a significant portion of U.S. graphite needs, especially as China is viewed as an unreliable supply-chain partner [4][12] - Titan's New York deposit has been approved for fast-tracked permitting, which is seen as a strategic move to build a domestic supply chain for graphite [13] Market Potential - Titan expects to produce approximately 40,000 metric tonnes (44,092 tons) of graphite concentrate annually, which could meet about half of the current U.S. demand for natural graphite [14] - The global demand for graphite is projected to continue rising over the next decade, driven by the battery boom and the increasing use of both natural and synthetic graphite [7]