金十数据4月30日讯，财经网站Forexlive：德国4月CPI月率略高于预期，但不会改变欧洲央行6月份降息 的计划。不过，核心通胀出现了显著的跃升。我们将观察未来几个月事态的发展，但贸易谈判仍是市场 关注的焦点。从长远来看，如果贸易战方面取得进展，可能会看到需求强劲而突然的回升，这将推动经 济活动和价格上涨。这是值得警惕的，因为它可能引发更强硬的利率预期重新定价。 机构：德国CPI略高于预期也不会改变欧洲央行六月降息的计划 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is facing potential inflationary pressures in the Eurozone due to U.S. trade tariffs, which may hinder global economic expansion [1] - ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone indicated that these tariffs could lead to a deflationary effect in the Eurozone in the short to medium term [1] - The unexpected appreciation of the Euro following the U.S. tariffs has surprised ECB policymakers, who initially anticipated a depreciation that would increase import costs [1] Group 2 - Recent data shows that Eurozone consumers' inflation expectations for the next year rose to 2.9% in March, up from 2.6% in February, marking the highest level since April 2024 [2] - Following a 25 basis point rate cut, the market anticipates further reductions in borrowing costs by the ECB, with expectations of two to three additional cuts this year [2] - Economists from major banks predict that the ECB may lower the deposit facility rate to at least 1.5% to stimulate demand [2] Group 3 - The volatility in U.S. tariffs has caused market turmoil, leading investors to seek alternatives to U.S. assets [3] - Cipollone noted that the recent performance of U.S. financial markets suggests they are not serving their usual role as a safe haven, which could have significant implications for capital flows and the international financial system [3] - The long-term effects of higher tariffs may undermine confidence in the U.S. dollar's dominance in international trade and finance, potentially leading to a more multipolar currency system [3]

"如果在六个月内从1.01美元升到了1.20美元，那么的确，这是一个大问题，" BCA Research首席欧洲策 略师Mathieu Savary说。高盛集团的经济学家称，自3月初以来欧元兑主要贸易伙伴的货币上涨了5%。 他们表示这可能会在未来两年每年使通胀率下降约0.2个百分点，但若欧元进一步升值这种拖累效应可 能加倍。Barings投资组合经理Brian Mangwiro认为，要对冲这种冲击，欧元兑美元升值到1.20以上就需 要欧洲央行在年底前将关键利率从从目前的2.25%降至1.5%以下。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, indicated that Europeans are feeling anxious about the strength of the euro, suggesting that the European Central Bank (ECB) may lower interest rates to help bring the euro down [1] Group 1 - European concerns regarding the strong euro are prevalent among its citizens [1] - The potential for the ECB to implement interest rate cuts is being discussed as a measure to address the euro's strength [1]

Core Viewpoint - European Central Bank officials are preparing for further interest rate cuts due to anticipated long-term economic damage from U.S. tariffs, despite potential softening of stance by the Trump administration [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - Most policymakers left the IMF meetings in Washington feeling disappointed, expecting that Trump's unpredictable behavior will continue to increase uncertainty, suppress spending and investment, and ultimately raise inflation in the near future [1] - Economists from Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, and Morgan Stanley predict that to stimulate demand, deposit rates, currently at 2.25%, will be lowered to at least 1.5% this year [1]

欧洲央行管委Kazaks：如果（欧元区）增长预期骤降（前景继续恶化），欧洲央行只应当考虑降息至中 性利率水平的下方。 如果降息过多，会挤压（后续的）政策空间。（彭博） ...

Group 1 - JPMorgan Asset Management believes that U.S. Treasuries have greater upside potential compared to European bonds due to traders underestimating the extent of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve relative to the European Central Bank [1] - Myles Bradshaw, the global head of comprehensive strategy at JPMorgan, anticipates that the Federal Reserve will eventually need to implement larger rate cuts after maintaining policy for a longer period [1] - Concerns over Trump's tariff policies have led to a sell-off in U.S. government bonds, resulting in rising yields, but some global investors, including PIMCO, are beginning to see the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries [1] Group 2 - The current market expects the European Central Bank to lower deposit rates to 1.5% with three additional rate cuts this year, while traders anticipate at least three rate cuts from the Federal Reserve down to 3.75% [2] - Recent comments from Trump regarding trade negotiations with China and his softened stance towards Fed Chairman Powell have eased market tensions, leading to a significant drop in long-term U.S. Treasury yields [2] - The fundamental drivers for future market movements will be economic growth and inflation, which will determine the next steps [2]

欧洲央行管委诺特：6月降息还是维持不变，现在就采取立场还为时过早。 ...