Group 1 - The euro is trading at approximately 1.1379 against the US dollar, showing a slight increase of 0.06% from the previous close of 1.1372 [1] - Spain's inflation rate decreased from 2.2% in April to 1.9% in May, while France's inflation rate fell from 0.9% to 0.6%, indicating a slowdown in price increases [1] - Economists expect the eurozone's inflation rate in May to be close to or below the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2%, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut next week [2] Group 2 - The decline in Spain's inflation is attributed to lower prices in leisure activities and a decrease in electricity prices, with core inflation also showing a slight decline [2] - The market anticipates a 0.25 percentage point rate cut by the ECB to 2.0%, marking the eighth rate cut since June 2024 [2] - The ECB is expected to adjust its inflation forecasts downward, as previous predictions did not account for the impact of US tariffs [2] Group 3 - Rising US tariffs may weaken eurozone inflation due to reduced demand for European goods, while cheaper Chinese goods may shift towards Europe [2] - The appreciation of the euro and declining energy prices, driven by slower global economic growth, are contributing to the easing of inflationary pressures [2] - The eurozone's economic growth has been partially supported by US companies stockpiling EU goods in response to tariffs, although overall inflationary pressures have eased [2] Group 4 - Despite a continued pullback in the euro against the dollar, the outlook remains bullish, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating bullish signals, although signs of weakening momentum are emerging [2]

Group 1 - The core inflation rate in the Eurozone fell to 2.3% in May, the lowest level since January 2022, driven by a decrease in service inflation and energy prices [2][3][5] - The Eurozone's inflation rate for May dropped to 1.9%, significantly lower than the 2.2% recorded in April, primarily due to a decline in service inflation from 4.0% to 3.2% [2][4] - Major Eurozone economies such as Germany, France, Italy, and Spain reported inflation rates of 2.1%, 0.6%, 1.9%, and 1.9% respectively in May [4] Group 2 - The market fully expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit rate down to 2% [6][8] - There is speculation that this may be the last rate cut in the current cycle, with future decisions potentially influenced by trade uncertainties and fiscal stimulus measures [6][8] - Analysts suggest that the ECB may pause further rate cuts after June, as they assess the urgency for additional monetary easing [7][8]

金十数据6月3日讯，尽管全球贸易紧张加剧了较长期的价格压力，但周二数据显示欧元区通胀低于欧洲 央行目标，支撑了本周再次降息的预期。欧元区CPI从2.2%降至1.9%，低于预期的2.0%，原因是能源价 格下跌，服务业通胀大幅下降。欧盟统计机构欧盟统计局说，受服务价格增长从4.0%放缓至3.2%的推 动，更受关注的潜在通胀率（不包括波动较大的燃料和食品价格）从2.7%降至2.3%。鉴于薪资增长疲 弱、能源价格回落、欧元走强以及经济增长不温不火等指向通胀放缓的因素，市场几乎完全消化了周四 的降息。价格压力如此之弱，一些经济学家甚至预计通胀将继续低于欧洲央行2%的目标，直到2026年 的某个时候才会反弹。 欧元区通胀降至欧洲央行目标下方 支持本周降息预期 ...

桑坦德银行：欧洲央行下周降息已板上钉钉 金十数据5月30日讯，桑坦德银行的G10宏观和固定收益策略研究主管Antonio Villarroya在一份报告中指 出，欧洲央行下周四再降息25个基点、将存款利率降至2.00%已板上钉钉。他表示，问题在于这是否会 是本轮周期的最后一次宽松。Villarroya认为，尽管再次降息的概率低于市场当前定价，但欧洲央行至 少会在与美国关税相关的不确定性消散之前，保留进一步降息的可能性。他指出，未来几个月欧元短期 利率可能较当前水平走高，但这种重新定价可能不会立即发生。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The euro's performance is likely to continue being dominated by the US dollar's movements [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank on June 5 [1] - The US PCE data is expected to be the main catalyst for the euro today, potentially keeping it within the short-term range of 1.1300 to 1.1400 USD [1]

路透调查：经济学家对于欧洲央行在6月之后的下一次降息时机没有形成多数意见，但预计至少还将有 一次降息。 ...

欧洲央行管委内格尔：目前尚无法判断欧洲央行是否会在下个月再次降息。 ...

智通财经5月28日电，欧洲央行管委内格尔表示，目前尚无法判断欧洲央行是否会在下个月再次降息， 将密切关注通胀预期。 ...

交易员增加欧洲央行降息押注；预计2025年将再降息三次。 ...

欧洲央行管委斯图纳拉斯：预计欧洲央行将在6月再降息一次，然后暂停降息。 ...