智通财经6月6日电，摩根大通预计欧洲央行将在9月再次降息，此前预测为7月。 ...

中信证券研报称，欧洲央行6月如期降息25bps，决议声明立场中性，下调今明两年的总体通胀预测，维 持核心通胀预测和经济增长预测大致不变，强调前景的双向不确定性。中信证券预计欧洲央行今年下半 年不再降息，从而维持存款便利利率于2%。美元指数近期可能会继续在100下方偏弱震荡，但进一步下 跌的空间或较有限。 ...

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - UBS expects global economic growth to gradually slow down in the second half of 2025, with healthy balance sheets and low default rates supporting spread stability [1] - The anticipated spread for EU investment-grade/high-yield bonds by December 2025 is projected at 100/325 basis points, despite potential market volatility from tariff news [1][2] - UBS's proprietary economic risk indicator has improved, challenging initial recession scenarios, although growth momentum is expected to fade later in the year [2] Group 2: ECB and Monetary Policy - UBS forecasts a 25 basis point rate cut by the ECB in June to 2.0%, aligning with market expectations, with another potential cut in July to 1.75% [3] - The ECB is expected to prioritize growth support while navigating inflation uncertainties, particularly in light of potential retaliatory tariffs from the EU [3] Group 3: Credit Market Dynamics - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed a slowdown in May, but manufacturing activity remains positive, with private sector credit growth recovering [4] - Low default rates (approximately 1.5%) and strong fundamentals are supporting the resilience of credit spreads, despite ongoing trade uncertainties [4] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - Investment-grade financial bonds are seen as an ideal choice compared to corporate bonds, with energy and basic industries being the most sensitive to tariff news [1][7] - The capital goods and utilities sectors are viewed as defensive, while the technology sector is experiencing increased volatility due to specific risks [7] Group 5: Trade News Impact - Following the announcement of tariffs, credit spreads initially widened but did so in an orderly manner without panic selling [6] - UBS anticipates increased volatility around tariff news in the summer, particularly after the 90-day pause period ends [6] Group 6: Investment Opportunities - In the context of rising market volatility due to tariff news, opportunities in sensitive sectors are increasingly driven by individual stock performance rather than macro factors [8] - Companies with strong balance sheets and low breakeven points in the energy sector are better positioned, while those with high leverage face greater risks [8] Group 7: Credit Market Trends - The orderly widening of spreads around the "Liberation Day" reflects investor preparedness, with a significant amount of cash buffer available to manage tariff announcements [9] - UBS predicts a rotation of funds from U.S. to EU markets, with credit valuations remaining well-supported [9] Group 8: Financial Sector Performance - The financial sector has outperformed, supported by strong earnings from core European banks, despite some weakness in interest income and non-performing loans [10][11] - UBS maintains a constructive but cautious outlook on the financial sector, anticipating moderate issuance in the investment-grade primary market [11] Group 9: Technical Market Conditions - Investment-grade corporate bond issuance reached a historical high of 56% in May, driven by positive tariff news and strong investor demand [13] - UBS expects a healthy supply dynamic for financial bonds, particularly in AT1 and T2 bonds, supporting the market's technical backdrop [13] Group 10: Private Credit Market Outlook - UBS notes unique supportive factors in the European private credit market, including stronger EBITDA growth compared to the U.S. and improving interest coverage ratios [14] - The European private credit market is expected to remain resilient, with ample dry powder available to support liquidity and mitigate hard defaults [14]

高盛：预计欧洲央行将在9月份实施（本轮降息周期内的）最后一次降息，而不是7月份。 ...

高盛现在预计欧洲央行的最后一次降息将在九月，而非七月。 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has implemented its fourth interest rate cut of the year, marking the eighth cut since June 2024, in response to inflation outlook and monetary policy transmission [1][3] - Following a 25 basis point reduction, the deposit facility rate, main refinancing operations rate, and marginal lending facility rate are now set at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40% respectively [3] - Current inflation in the Eurozone is near the ECB's medium-term target of 2%, with forecasts indicating an average inflation rate of 2.0% for 2025 and 1.6% for 2026, reflecting lower energy prices and a stronger euro [5] Group 2 - European stock markets have performed exceptionally well, with the Stoxx 50 index rising 10.6% year-to-date and the German stock market up 22%, reaching historical highs [6][7] - The German government's approval of a €46 billion ($52 billion) tax relief plan for businesses is part of efforts to stimulate economic growth, which is expected to gain momentum from 2026 onwards [7] - Market participants view Europe as a safer investment destination amid challenges in the US economy, with a significant increase in inquiries about European investments over the past two months [8]

交易员提高欧洲央行降息押注，预计今年将再降息33个基点。 ...

交易员增加对欧洲央行降息的预期，预计今年还将再降33个基点。 ...

金十数据6月5日讯，外汇策略师Karamanis表示，市场已经完全消化了欧洲央行降息的影响，与此同 时，预计欧洲央行行长拉加德将采取谨慎的观望态度。目前波动性预期受到抑制，这不仅仅是因为市场 预计欧洲央行今天的决定不会带来什么意外。更重要的是，利率与外汇之间的传统联系在最近几周有所 减弱。这意味着，即使货币市场对欧洲央行年底前政策路径的定价出现显著变化，也可能不足以对欧元 产生实质性的冲击。 策略师：欧洲央行决议料难以对欧元造成冲击 ...

Group 1 - The euro is trading at approximately 1.1379 against the US dollar, showing a slight increase of 0.06% from the previous close of 1.1372 [1] - Spain's inflation rate decreased from 2.2% in April to 1.9% in May, while France's inflation rate fell from 0.9% to 0.6%, indicating a slowdown in price increases [1] - Economists expect the eurozone's inflation rate in May to be close to or below the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2%, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut next week [2] Group 2 - The decline in Spain's inflation is attributed to lower prices in leisure activities and a decrease in electricity prices, with core inflation also showing a slight decline [2] - The market anticipates a 0.25 percentage point rate cut by the ECB to 2.0%, marking the eighth rate cut since June 2024 [2] - The ECB is expected to adjust its inflation forecasts downward, as previous predictions did not account for the impact of US tariffs [2] Group 3 - Rising US tariffs may weaken eurozone inflation due to reduced demand for European goods, while cheaper Chinese goods may shift towards Europe [2] - The appreciation of the euro and declining energy prices, driven by slower global economic growth, are contributing to the easing of inflationary pressures [2] - The eurozone's economic growth has been partially supported by US companies stockpiling EU goods in response to tariffs, although overall inflationary pressures have eased [2] Group 4 - Despite a continued pullback in the euro against the dollar, the outlook remains bullish, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating bullish signals, although signs of weakening momentum are emerging [2]