高盛预计美联储将于9月份降息，此前预计要到12月才会行动。 美国国债收益率跌幅扩大，10/30年期美债收益率刷新日低。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The downward momentum of U.S. Treasury yields has slowed, with the 10-year Treasury yield currently reported at 4.269% [1] Group 1 - The 10-year Treasury yield is a key indicator of long-term interest rates and economic expectations [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a decline in U.S. personal spending data for May, which has led to a slight decrease in U.S. Treasury yields [1] - The U.S. dollar index experienced a short-term decline, dropping by 0.16% and currently standing at 97.12 [1]

Core Insights - The PCE data has softened, leading to a slight decline in U.S. Treasury yields [1] Group 1 - The softening of PCE data indicates potential changes in consumer spending patterns [1] - A decrease in U.S. Treasury yields may reflect investor sentiment regarding future economic conditions [1]

美国经济数据好坏参半，美国国债收益率略微上升。 ...

Group 1 - The potential non-farm employment growth in the U.S. is expected to decline significantly from over 100,000 jobs per month to less than 10,000 by the end of next year, leading to a reduction in the potential economic growth rate from slightly above 2% to 1.4-1.6% [1] - The average monthly job creation in the private sector over the past two years has been approximately 172,000, indicating a stark contrast with the anticipated future potential growth [1] - The Bank of Japan's bond purchase plan lacks long-term guidance, creating ongoing market uncertainty regarding the scale of bond purchases post-April 2027 [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's economic projections reveal the highest level of divergence in interest rate paths for 2025 in the past decade, with a median expectation of two rate cuts (50 basis points) but a range from no cuts to a 75 basis point reduction [2] - The disparity between the most common and second most common predictions for interest rate changes has reached 50 basis points, the largest difference in ten years, indicating fundamental disagreements among policymakers on balancing inflation control and economic growth [2] - Despite downgrades in the U.S. credit rating by major agencies, foreign investment in U.S. Treasury bonds remains strong due to the lack of reliable alternatives and the relatively high yields offered [2] Group 3 - Key factors influencing the global market include the potential for tariff agreements among countries, fluctuations in the dollar's exchange rate, and rising risks associated with the U.S. deficit [3] - There is an expectation that major countries may reach partial consensus on tariff issues and extend grace periods while implementing specific industry tariff measures [3] - The U.S. deficit risk is anticipated to rise, which may keep U.S. Treasury yields between 4% and 5% [3]

美国国债收益率在数据公布后略微回落；两年期美国国债收益率跌1.1个基点，报3.939%，10年期国债 收益率现跌2个基点，报4.371%，30年期美国国债收益率跌2.4个基点，报4.869%。 美国30年国债收益率 ...

美国国债收益率下跌，10年期收益率日内跌1.5个基点，至4.409%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields are currently at an attractive level, with the 10-year Treasury yield exceeding the fair value estimate by Russell Investments [1] Group 1: Treasury Yield Insights - The 10-year Treasury yield is estimated to have a fair value of 4.1%, making the current yield appealing [1] - Recent data from Tradeweb indicates that Treasury yields experienced a slight increase after a temporary drop due to geopolitical events [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Russell Investments' baseline forecast suggests that U.S. economic growth and potential inflation will gradually slow down, which may support the Federal Reserve in resuming interest rate cuts [1]

Group 1 - The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for May showed a lower-than-expected growth rate, indicating continued moderate inflation, which has increased market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1][2] - The 10-year US Treasury yield fell by 6.11 basis points to 4.36%, reaching a new low since early May, while the 20-year and 30-year yields also dropped over 7 basis points [1] - The US Treasury issued $22 billion in 30-year bonds with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.43, indicating strong demand despite a slight decrease in the indirect bid ratio [1][2] Group 2 - The May PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, below the expected 0.2%, while the year-on-year growth was 2.6%, slightly higher than April's 2.4% [2] - Core PPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.1% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3%, and the year-on-year increase was 3.0%, slightly above expectations [2] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut before September has risen to approximately 80%, reflecting increased investor confidence in a potential easing of monetary policy [2]