新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-09 矿端方面，外电1月7日消息，智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）董事长Máximo Pacheco在接受采访时表示，该公司2025 年实现了铜产量增长目标，但增幅微乎其微。尽管旗下最大矿山El Teniente发生致命塌方事故，该公司智利产区2025 年铜产量仍达133.3万吨，较2024年增加5000吨，同比增幅仅 0.4%，增长主要得益于12月的强劲产出，该月产量较 11月高出40%。Pacheco一直在努力恢复产量，Pacheco透露，公司2026年目标产量为134.4万吨，计划继续小幅增产。 在供应中断频发、铜价屡创历史新高的背景下，即便如此微弱的增量也将受到市场欢迎。 铜价震荡走弱 但后市仍相对看好 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2026-01-08，沪铜主力合约开于 103200元/吨，收于 101220元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-2.12%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力 合约开于 101,660元/吨，收于 101,230 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下降0.98%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货报价区间为贴水180元至升水50元/吨，均价贴 ...

作为一名长期关注国际政治经济形势的观察者，我始终认为，每当美国政坛发生重要变化时，都会引发一连串的连锁反应，尤其当主角是特朗普这样行动风 格极具冲击力的人物时，这些反应更值得关注。最近，特朗普连续抛出两条重大消息：一方面他警告美国政府可能再次陷入停摆，另一方面他加速推进美联 储主席更换的计划。这两件看似无关的事情，实际上都隐藏着特朗普的政治和经济目的。美国国内的治理难题与金融博弈不断升级，这些不确定因素最终将 如何影响美国本土，进而波及全球市场呢？ 特朗普的政治操作与金融布局 最近，美国政坛和金融市场都因特朗普的两大举措而风起云涌。这两件事的发生 时间几乎同步，令人难以相信这只是偶然。首先，他明确表示将在2026年中期选举中，将价格问题作为核心议题，并警告美国政府可能再次陷入停摆。此 外，他还放出信号，将在明年1月初公布新任美联储主席的提名人选，四位热门人选已经浮出水面。 这两件事表面上分别涉及政治和金融领域，但它们的核心目标是相同的。首先，临时预算的资金只能支持政府运行到2026年1月30日，而美联储主席鲍威尔 的任期则持续到明年5月。因此，特朗普选择在这一时点同时推动这两项事务，显然是经过精心策划的。警告 ...

中长期而言，若英国央行开启持续降息周期，而美联储降息节奏放缓，英美利差扩大可能推动汇价进入 阶段性下行通道；若英国经济增长超预期改善，通胀压力显著回落，英国央行宽松步伐放缓，同时美联 储维持宽松态势，汇价或维持1.30-1.35宽幅震荡格局。此外，英国财政政策的实施效果以及全球风险情 绪变化，也将成为影响英镑兑美元中长期走势的重要变量。 英国国内经济与财政动态也对汇价产生重要影响。英国财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯11月公布的秋季预算案 消除了部分市场不确定性，预算案显示英国拥有约220亿英镑的更大财政缓冲，使投资者重新建立信 心，投机者削减了此前的英镑空头头寸，推动英镑兑美元一度攀升至1.335以上，达到自10月22日以来 的最高水平。不过，预算案中的财政紧缩政策可能制约经济增长潜力，且英国未来经济增长预期被下 调，为英镑长期走势埋下隐忧。同时，英国9月份消费者通胀率为3.8%，几乎是英国央行2%目标的两 倍，在七国集团主要发达经济体中处于最高水平，尽管英国央行预测通胀率将在明年初降至3.1%，但 高通胀压力仍为政策调整增添了变数。 技术面显示，英镑兑美元当前处于1.3250-1.3380区间整理结构。价格在下方1 ...

"我知道我要选谁了，没错。"当地时间11月30日，美国总统特朗普表示，他已确定下一任美联储主 席人选。特朗普在返回华盛顿的总统专机"空军一号"上告诉记者这一消息，但并未透露具体人选，只是 表示"我们即将宣布这一决定。"负责监督遴选过程的美国财政部长贝森特上周表示，特朗普可能在12月 25日前宣布提名。 据悉，美联储主席鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月结束。特朗普多次公开呼吁美联储大幅降息，并要 求鲍威尔辞职。有知情人士透露，白宫国家经济委员会主任、特朗普首席经济顾问哈西特被视为接替鲍 威尔的潜在热门人选。 0:00 另有不愿公开姓名的知情人士说，若选择哈西特，意味着特朗普把一名他熟知并信任的亲密盟友安 插进美联储。一些知情人士称，哈西特被视为能将特朗普所主张降息政策带入美联储的人。 哈西特11月30日在美国哥伦比亚广播公司《面向全国》节目中拒绝回应自己是否为鲍威尔的接替 者，并称相关报道是"谣言"。有知情人士透露，特朗普信任哈西特，并认为他在推动美联储更激进降息 的诉求上与自己立场一致。哈西特表示，若获提名将接受这一职位。 现年63岁的哈西特拥有宾夕法尼亚大学经济学博士学位。1989年，他以哥伦比亚大学助理教授 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve by President Trump, indicating a preference for a familiar ally who supports Trump's interest in lowering interest rates [1][3]. Group 1: Candidate Information - Kevin Hassett is viewed as the top candidate for the Federal Reserve chairmanship, reflecting Trump's desire to place a trusted ally in this influential position [1][3]. - Hassett has expressed willingness to accept the role if offered, but acknowledges the presence of other strong candidates [3]. Group 2: Implications of the Nomination - The nomination of Hassett would align with Trump's ongoing push for interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy and reduce government borrowing costs [3]. - Trump's dissatisfaction with the current Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, has been evident, as he has repeatedly called for Powell's resignation due to perceived inaction on interest rate cuts [3]. Group 3: Uncertainty in Decision-Making - The article highlights the unpredictability of Trump's decision-making style, suggesting that the final choice for the Federal Reserve chair may still change before any official announcement [3]. - White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt emphasized the uncertainty surrounding Trump's actions, indicating that the situation remains fluid [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, indicating that President Trump views him as a trusted ally who could implement his preferred interest rate policies [1]. Group 1: Candidate Overview - Kevin Hassett is considered the top candidate for the Federal Reserve chairmanship by President Trump and his advisors [1]. - Hassett has expressed willingness to accept the position if offered, but acknowledges the presence of other strong candidates [1]. Group 2: Implications of Nomination - The nomination of Hassett would signify Trump's intention to place a familiar ally in a key economic position, potentially aligning the Federal Reserve's policies with Trump's agenda for interest rate cuts [1]. - Trump's dissatisfaction with the current Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, has been evident, as he has repeatedly called for rate cuts to stimulate the economy and reduce government borrowing costs [1]. Group 3: Uncertainty in Decision-Making - The article highlights the unpredictability of Trump's decision-making style, suggesting that the final choice for the Federal Reserve chair may still change before any official announcement [1]. - White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt emphasized the uncertainty surrounding Trump's actions, indicating that the situation remains fluid [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve by President Trump, highlighting his close relationship with Trump and his alignment with the president's interest in lowering interest rates [1] Group 1: Candidate Information - Kevin Hassett is viewed as the top candidate for the Federal Reserve chairmanship, indicating Trump's preference for a trusted ally in this influential position [1] - Hassett has expressed willingness to accept the role if offered, but acknowledges the presence of other strong candidates [1] Group 2: Political Context - Trump's dissatisfaction with the current Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, stems from the Fed's reluctance to implement aggressive interest rate cuts, which Trump believes are necessary to stimulate the economy [1] - The article notes Trump's unpredictable decision-making style, suggesting that the final nomination may still change before any official announcement [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will submit a list of candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair to President Trump in December, with three to four candidates expected for interviews after Thanksgiving [1] - The candidate pool has been narrowed down from 11 to 5, including current Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, NEC Director Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder [1] - Bessent emphasized that Trump's decision-making process involves gathering opinions from numerous individuals before making a final choice [1] Group 2 - Candidates for the Fed Chair position must demonstrate a willingness to support significant interest rate cuts while also proving their economic expertise and maintaining a degree of independence [1][2] - Bessent did not directly address whether candidates must support rate cuts but stated that openness and judgment of the current situation are key selection criteria [2] - The new Fed Chair is expected to be appointed for a 14-year term starting in early 2026, and Trump is also seeking to replace current Fed Governor Lisa Cook due to allegations of mortgage fraud [2]

Core Viewpoint - The small-cap stocks are experiencing a resurgence, with the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) rising by 0.4% during trading on August 13, marking a cumulative increase of 50% year-to-date, and reaching a new high for the 40th time this year [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF has seen a significant increase in trading volume, with a net inflow exceeding 23 million during the session [1] - The fund's scale has grown by 6463.20% this year, setting a historical record [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Economic and profit recovery trends are evident, supported by ongoing growth policies that have led to high levels of infrastructure, manufacturing investment, and consumption growth [1] - July exports continued to maintain a high year-on-year growth rate [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that if liquidity remains abundant, the "water buffalo logic" may strengthen, leading to increased investment in small-cap growth stocks through ETFs and margin trading [1] - While potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the third quarter may favor growth styles, uncertainties in the external environment and the already high short-term gains in small-cap stocks warrant caution among investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields are currently at an attractive level, with the 10-year Treasury yield exceeding the fair value estimate by Russell Investments [1] Group 1: Treasury Yield Insights - The 10-year Treasury yield is estimated to have a fair value of 4.1%, making the current yield appealing [1] - Recent data from Tradeweb indicates that Treasury yields experienced a slight increase after a temporary drop due to geopolitical events [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Russell Investments' baseline forecast suggests that U.S. economic growth and potential inflation will gradually slow down, which may support the Federal Reserve in resuming interest rate cuts [1]