科技股全线反攻。 隔夜美股市场，科技股反弹提振市场情绪，纳指大涨近1%，道指再创历史新高。以黄金、白银为首的贵金属 全线大涨，COMEX黄金期货涨超2%，COMEX白银期货大涨8%。 有分析指出，美元持续走弱为风险资产和黄金、白银提供了额外支撑。美东时间2月9日，美元大幅走弱，衡量 美元对六种主要货币的美元指数大跌0.84%，跌破97关口。 对此，美国亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，他开 始看到人们对美元信心产生质疑。美联储理事米兰则表示，美元目前的这种程度的下跌，还没有对货币政策产 生实质性的影响。 全线大涨 美东时间2月9日，美股三大指数低开高走，道指再创历史新高，标普500指数逼近历史高点。截至收盘，道指 涨0.04%，标普500指数涨0.47%，纳指涨0.90%。 美股大型科技股多数走强，甲骨文大涨超9%，微软、博通、AMD大涨超3%，英伟达、Meta涨超2%，特斯拉 涨超1%，谷歌小幅收涨；苹果跌超1%，亚马逊小幅收跌。 消息面上，甲骨文大幅飙涨主要受到D.A. Davidson上调评级的提振。D.A.Davidson分析师吉尔·卢里亚认为， 市场对甲骨文的抛售可能已过度。 谷歌母公司Alphabet ...

广发期货研究所贵金属研究员叶倩宁表示，近期，局部地区贸易冲突升级，加剧了市场担忧情绪，避险 资金纷纷涌入黄金市场，推动国际黄金价格在结束短暂回调后再度走强，并创下历史新高。从宏观层面 来看，美国近期公布的一系列经济数据显示，其就业市场与通胀水平持续放缓，但部分领域在美联储降 息政策的提振下已出现边际改善。尽管美联储内部对于就业与通胀目标的权衡仍存在分歧，短期政策取 向趋于谨慎，但贸易摩擦升级与地缘政治风险引发的避险需求，正驱动资金提前布局黄金资产，为金价 打开中长期上涨空间。 叶倩宁表示，在此背景下，全球主流机构纷纷上调金价预期，部分机构投资者选择提前"抢跑"配置黄 金，进一步对金价形成强劲支撑。从短期走势来看，黄金市场将更多受美国经济数据对美联储政策预期 的传导，以及地缘局势波动的扰动，价格大概率维持偏强震荡格局。 近期，国际黄金价格持续上行，迭创历史新高。Wind数据显示，截至北京时间1月21日9:30，伦敦现货 黄金冲破4800美元/盎司整数关口，最高触及4836.561美元/盎司；纽约商品交易所（COMEX）黄金期货 同步走强，峰值达4815.7美元/盎司，两者2026年以来累计涨幅均超11%。 ...

Group 1: Beige Book Insights - The Federal Reserve will release the first Beige Book of 2026 on January 12, which will provide insights into macroeconomic changes across various U.S. regions since the last report on November 26, 2025 [1][10] - The Beige Book is published eight times a year and is based on interviews with business contacts, economists, and market experts, compiled by twelve regional Federal Reserve Banks [2][10] - Observers analyze the wording changes in the Beige Book to gauge the U.S. economy; if the upcoming report indicates an increase in regions reporting economic decline, it may suggest ongoing economic weakness [2][10] Group 2: Labor Market and Inflation Analysis - The Beige Book will include specific analyses of the labor market and inflation; the previous report noted a slight decline in employment and weakened labor demand in about half of the regions, alongside moderate price increases [11] - Changes in the Beige Book's commentary on the labor market and inflation could influence the Federal Reserve's willingness to continue lowering interest rates [11] Group 3: December CPI Data - The U.S. Labor Department will release the December unadjusted CPI year-on-year data on January 9, which is significant as it is the first month unaffected by the government shutdown [3][12] - The previous unadjusted CPI year-on-year was 2.7%, with expectations for December remaining stable; the core CPI year-on-year was previously 2.6%, with a forecast of 2.7% [6][15] - Historical data shows that the CPI had been running high at 2.8% to 3% until November, when it dropped to 2.6%, indicating a trend of weakening inflation [15] Group 4: PPI and Future Inflation Expectations - The PPI data for November will be released on January 10, which serves as a leading indicator for CPI; however, its predictive power is limited as it is released after the CPI data [15] - Current expectations suggest that if inflation remains weak, the Federal Reserve may initiate rate cuts, potentially starting in March with a total of three 25 basis point cuts throughout the year [15] Group 5: Oil Inventory Reports - The EIA will release its monthly short-term energy outlook report on January 10, coinciding with OPEC's monthly oil market report [16][19] - The EIA report is based on U.S. crude oil market supply and demand data, while OPEC's report is based on production data from OPEC+ member countries, providing insights into the international oil price outlook [19] - The situation has become more complex due to U.S. policies forcing Venezuelan oil to be sold exclusively to the U.S., impacting OPEC+ supply statistics and member countries' production decisions [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously Bullish [6] - Options: Sell Puts [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The copper market is currently facing tight mine - end supply, increased refined copper exports due to foreign premium, and reluctant selling of scrap copper. Demand is relatively weak due to high prices and holiday factors. However, if copper prices fall, downstream replenishment enthusiasm is expected to rise. Therefore, it is recommended to buy and hedge in batches at low prices between 98,000 yuan/ton and 98,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the short - term decline of copper varieties caused by the Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On January 8, 2026, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 103,200 yuan/ton and closed at 101,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.12% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 101,660 yuan/ton and closed at 101,230 yuan/ton, a 0.98% decrease from the afternoon close [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Situation - The SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot quotation range was a discount of 180 yuan to a premium of 50 yuan/ton, with an average discount of 65 yuan, narrowing by 15 yuan from the previous day. The spot mainstream price was between 101,470 - 102,700 yuan/ton. The main futures contract showed a trend of rising and then falling. It is expected that the spot will remain at a discount, and attention should be paid to the impact of market purchasing trends on the discount as the delivery date approaches [2]. 3.1.3 Important Information Summary - Geopolitical: Trump plans to "manage" Venezuela for many years and extract its oil reserves, and proposes to increase the US military budget from 1 trillion US dollars to 1.5 trillion US dollars in fiscal year 2027 [3]. - Employment data: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week rose to 208,000, slightly lower than market expectations and still at a historical low. The number of layoffs in December last year was 35,553, the lowest in 17 months [3]. - Mine end: Codelco's Chilean production area produced 1.333 million tons of copper in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The target production in 2026 is 1.344 million tons [3]. 3.1.4 Smelting and Import - Fitch's BMI maintains the average copper price forecast for 2026 at 11,000 US dollars/ton. It points out that supply shortages, green transformation demand, and the Fed's interest - rate cut policy will support copper prices, but the weak real estate market in China may offset some demand growth. The global refined copper production growth rate is expected to drop to 1.1% in 2026, and the market may face shortages [4]. 3.1.5 Consumption - S&P Global says that the growth of AI and the defense industry will increase global copper demand by 50% to 42 million tons by 2040. If recycling and mining are not improved, the annual supply shortage may exceed 10 million tons [5]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 2,850 tons to 141,075 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 12,211 tons to 108,685 tons. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on January 8 was 273,800 tons, a change of 16,200 tons from the previous week [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent actions of Trump, including warnings about a potential government shutdown and plans to replace the Federal Reserve Chairman, are strategically linked to his political and economic objectives, impacting both domestic governance and global markets. Group 1: Government Shutdown Concerns - Trump has highlighted the risk of a government shutdown, leveraging the ongoing budget disputes between the two parties, particularly in healthcare and defense funding, which could lead to legislative stagnation [5][6][10] - If no consensus is reached by January 30, 2026, the U.S. government may face another shutdown, which Trump is using to focus on voter issues like prices and energy costs ahead of the midterm elections [6][8] - The historical context of the 2025 government shutdown illustrates the significant impact such events can have on public services and government operations [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Chairman Replacement - Trump plans to announce a new Federal Reserve Chairman in January, with four potential candidates, aiming to influence monetary policy towards his preference for lower interest rates to alleviate government debt pressure [8][12] - The current debt of the U.S. government exceeds $38 trillion, and Trump believes that lowering the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate could save the government significant interest payments [11] - The potential replacement of the Fed Chairman raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the implications for financial market stability [11][17] Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The interplay between the risk of a government shutdown and the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's leadership could lead to increased volatility in financial markets, affecting global capital flows [14][15] - If interest rates are lowered significantly, it may lead to capital inflows into emerging markets, potentially creating asset bubbles [14][16] - Conversely, if the anticipated rate cuts do not materialize, it could result in capital returning to the U.S., exerting pressure on emerging markets [16]

Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD exchange rate is experiencing narrow fluctuations, driven by expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Bank of England and policy divergence following the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, alongside adjustments in market sentiment due to reduced uncertainty in UK fiscal policy [1][2][3] Group 1: Bank of England and Monetary Policy - The expectation of a rate cut by the Bank of England has intensified, with market pricing indicating a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming meeting [1] - The Bank of England has already completed its fifth rate cut since August 2025, lowering the benchmark rate to 4.00%, and has signaled a potential continuation of gradual rate cuts [1] - Internal divisions within the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee reflect a dilemma between high inflation and weak economic growth, with recent decisions showing a close vote of 5 to 4 [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Policy Divergence - The Federal Reserve has completed its third rate cut of the year, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, but significant policy disagreements remain, with some members advocating for maintaining rates or even resuming rate hikes [2] - The market has priced in the recent rate cut, but there is a prevailing expectation of a "hawkish cut" signal from the Fed, suggesting a potential pause in easing by early 2026, which supports the USD and limits GBP's upward momentum [2] Group 3: UK Economic and Fiscal Dynamics - The UK Chancellor's autumn budget has alleviated some market uncertainties, revealing a fiscal buffer of approximately £22 billion, which has restored investor confidence and reduced GBP short positions [3] - However, the budget's austerity measures may constrain economic growth potential, and future growth expectations for the UK have been downgraded, raising concerns for the long-term trajectory of the GBP [3] - The UK's consumer inflation rate was recorded at 3.8% in September, nearly double the Bank of England's target of 2%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures that complicate policy adjustments [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis and Short-term Outlook - The GBP/USD is currently in a consolidation range of 1.3250-1.3380, with support near 1.3250 and resistance around 1.3350-1.3380 [3] - A breakout above 1.3380 could lead to a test of the 1.3400 target, while a drop below 1.3250 may result in a pullback to the 1.3180-1.3200 region [3] - The upcoming decisions from the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve will be crucial for determining the exchange rate direction in the short term [4]

Group 1 - The core message is that President Trump has identified his choice for the next Federal Reserve Chair and plans to announce it soon, potentially by December 25 [1][3] - Current Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026, and Trump has publicly called for significant interest rate cuts and has suggested Powell resign [1] - The potential candidate, Kevin Hassett, is seen as a close ally of Trump who could implement the President's advocated interest rate policies within the Fed [3] Group 2 - Hassett, aged 63, has a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and has held various positions, including serving as the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers during Trump's first term [3] - The speculation around Hassett's nomination has led to a drop in the 10-year Treasury yield below 4% [3] - Analysts have raised concerns about Hassett's ability to maintain unity within the Fed and the potential for increased pressure from Trump, which could undermine the Fed's policy independence [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve by President Trump, indicating a preference for a familiar ally who supports Trump's interest in lowering interest rates [1][3]. Group 1: Candidate Information - Kevin Hassett is viewed as the top candidate for the Federal Reserve chairmanship, reflecting Trump's desire to place a trusted ally in this influential position [1][3]. - Hassett has expressed willingness to accept the role if offered, but acknowledges the presence of other strong candidates [3]. Group 2: Implications of the Nomination - The nomination of Hassett would align with Trump's ongoing push for interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy and reduce government borrowing costs [3]. - Trump's dissatisfaction with the current Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, has been evident, as he has repeatedly called for Powell's resignation due to perceived inaction on interest rate cuts [3]. Group 3: Uncertainty in Decision-Making - The article highlights the unpredictability of Trump's decision-making style, suggesting that the final choice for the Federal Reserve chair may still change before any official announcement [3]. - White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt emphasized the uncertainty surrounding Trump's actions, indicating that the situation remains fluid [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, indicating that President Trump views him as a trusted ally who could implement his preferred interest rate policies [1]. Group 1: Candidate Overview - Kevin Hassett is considered the top candidate for the Federal Reserve chairmanship by President Trump and his advisors [1]. - Hassett has expressed willingness to accept the position if offered, but acknowledges the presence of other strong candidates [1]. Group 2: Implications of Nomination - The nomination of Hassett would signify Trump's intention to place a familiar ally in a key economic position, potentially aligning the Federal Reserve's policies with Trump's agenda for interest rate cuts [1]. - Trump's dissatisfaction with the current Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, has been evident, as he has repeatedly called for rate cuts to stimulate the economy and reduce government borrowing costs [1]. Group 3: Uncertainty in Decision-Making - The article highlights the unpredictability of Trump's decision-making style, suggesting that the final choice for the Federal Reserve chair may still change before any official announcement [1]. - White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt emphasized the uncertainty surrounding Trump's actions, indicating that the situation remains fluid [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve by President Trump, highlighting his close relationship with Trump and his alignment with the president's interest in lowering interest rates [1] Group 1: Candidate Information - Kevin Hassett is viewed as the top candidate for the Federal Reserve chairmanship, indicating Trump's preference for a trusted ally in this influential position [1] - Hassett has expressed willingness to accept the role if offered, but acknowledges the presence of other strong candidates [1] Group 2: Political Context - Trump's dissatisfaction with the current Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, stems from the Fed's reluctance to implement aggressive interest rate cuts, which Trump believes are necessary to stimulate the economy [1] - The article notes Trump's unpredictable decision-making style, suggesting that the final nomination may still change before any official announcement [1]