受美联储偏鸽预期和美元疲软影响，黄金欧洲盘延续温和上行，但整体仍处本周区间震荡内。就业数据 稳健未削弱市场降息押注，美元承压格局明显。即将公布的 PCE 数据将决定金价能否突破 4250–4300 区间，短线交易以谨慎观望为主，中期走势仍关注政策预期和通胀演变。 上方阻力：4245–4250 美元为短期关键阻力，多次试探未破；突破后目标 4277–4278 美元，进一 步站稳可看向 4300 整数关口。 下方支撑：4163–4164 美元为短线支撑，若跌破，4100–4090 区间提供更强结构性支撑，包括 4H 200EMA 和上升趋势线，跌破将增加下行压力。 PCE 数据公布前，不宜追高，建议围绕区间观察突破方向。 美元走势仍主导黄金节奏，地缘风险为阶段性支撑。 若数据强化降息预期，黄金可能测试 4300 区域；若通胀意外走高，则需警惕回落至 4160 区间。 劳动力市场表现亮眼：Challenger 报告显示，美国 11 月计划裁员人数环比下降 53%，首次申请失业救 济人数降至 19.1 万，创三年多新低。尽管就业稳健，市场对美联储下周降息 25 个基点的押注仍保持在 高位（概率超过 85%）。说明投资 ...

北京时间23:00，美联储最青睐的通胀指标——PCE数据将公布。鉴于CPI数据已官宣缺席，今晚数据将 是美联储12月会议前的唯一通胀指引，该报告的每一处细节都将被市场放大检视，届时警惕行情波动。 （格隆汇） ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 汪雅航 市场分析 国内开展稀土出口管制。宏观方面，商务部召开例行新闻发布会介绍，中国政府依法依规开展稀土相关 物项出口管制工作，只要是用于民用用途的、合规的出口申请，中国政府都及时予以了批准。对外方 面，国家主席习近平同法国总统马克龙举行会谈。习近平强调，无论外部环境如何变化，中法两国都应 当在彼此核心利益和重大关切问题上相互理解和支持，维护好中法关系的政治基础。海外方面，美国上 周初请失业金人数意外减少2.7万人至19.1万人，为2022年9月以来的最低水平。 股指分化。现货市场，A股三大指数走势分化，沪指跌0.51%收于3878点，创业板指跌1.12%。行业方 面，板块指数跌多涨少，机械设备、电子、国防军工行业领涨，美容护理、社会服务、商贸零售、纺织 服饰行业跌幅居前。当日沪深两市成交额不足1.6万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，纳 指涨0.22%报23505.14点。 IM基差修复。期货市场，基差方面，IC、IM的贴水持续修复。成交持仓方面，四大期指的成交量和持 仓量同步下降。 策略 海外方面，PCE数据 ...

【汇金趋势掌乾坤，每日思路见真章】 周三黄金延续震荡洗盘，多数时间稳定在4200上方。疲软的美国就业数据成为短期推力，推动黄金触及4241高点，但尾盘涨幅尽数回吐，收于4203接近收 平。同时白银表现强势，持续刷新高58.95，为黄金提供了有效支撑，也印证了市场对美联储降息的强烈预期——预期主导下，美国债市收益率回落、美元 走软，gu市同步走强。 美国劳动力市场意外下滑和美联储宽松政策信号日渐明显，白银强势飙升，而黄金作为传统避险资产，可能正在蓄势待发。虽然短期内黄金可能追随白银轻 微回调，但中长期上涨大趋势不改。留意周五的PCE数据和下周美联储会议，这可能成为黄金突破新高的催化剂。 早盘弱势在4216先回落的话，继续关注测试昨日低点，破位关注二次摸低4175-63。有效站稳4216继续关注测试4230上！最近走势都没什么延续性，冲高回 落和测低反弹持续主节奏，回测支撑后多次都是冲高回落急跌，这也是多头动能不足的表现。蓄力不够，还需反复去回测蓄力，美指近期跌的厉害也带动了 部分其他货币波动起来了，做了其他币种注意下即可，目前短期也进入大支撑区需要关注一波修正了！短期支撑阻力都有作用，上方压力位4245附近，接 ...

Group 1 - The core PCE inflation rate for August recorded at 2.9%, meeting expectations and unchanged from the previous value [1] - Overall PCE inflation rate for August recorded at 2.7%, also meeting expectations but higher than the previous value of 2.60% [1] - Personal spending in August exceeded expectations, reaching the highest level since March 2025, indicating resilience in consumer demand [1] Group 2 - Despite a significant slowdown in the labor market and stagnation in job growth, consumption continues to rise, primarily driven by high-income households benefiting from a strong stock market and elevated housing prices [4] - U.S. household wealth surged to a record $176.3 trillion in Q2, but low-income households face pressure due to rising commodity prices from import tariffs [4] - The risk of consumption growth is concentrated among high-income households, with potential vulnerabilities tied to stock market and housing price fluctuations [4] Group 3 - Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasized the focus on balancing inflation and unemployment, indicating limited risks of further deterioration in both metrics [5] - The Federal Reserve recently voted to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in response to growing concerns about labor market slowdown [5] - Discrepancies among Federal Reserve officials regarding future rate cuts exist, with some advocating for continued cuts to mitigate employment risks while others remain concerned about inflation potential [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. Commerce Department will release the August core PCE price index year-on-year data, with the previous value at 2.9% and the expected value remaining unchanged [2] - The core PCE data is a key basis for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments, and stable data performance is beneficial for maintaining the current interest rate cut trend [2] - The labor market in the U.S. has shown weakness since May, leading the Federal Reserve to shift focus from PCE data to non-farm payroll reports [2] Group 2 - The Swiss National Bank is expected to maintain a zero interest rate in its September rate decision, as inflation remains low at 0.7% in August, below the previous value of 0.8% [4] - The Swiss economy is experiencing weak inflation, which corresponds to a loose monetary policy, and the Swiss franc may face significant pressure due to the zero interest rate environment [4] - Despite the zero interest rate, the Swiss franc retains its safe-haven status, which may lead to appreciation against the U.S. dollar and euro amid global economic uncertainty [4] Group 3 - Major developed countries will release manufacturing PMI data, with expectations for France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK showing mixed results, while the U.S. manufacturing PMI is expected to decline slightly [5] - The manufacturing outlook in Europe appears positive, with expected values above the 50 mark, except for the UK, indicating growth [5] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI is still above the 50 mark, suggesting limited impact on the U.S. dollar index despite a slight expected decline [5]

Core Viewpoint - A political conflict between the U.S. President and the Federal Reserve has significantly influenced the surge in gold prices, with gold surpassing $3,400 per ounce, marking a new high in over a month [1][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On August 28, gold prices rose sharply, reaching a peak of $3,423.02 per ounce, driven by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve due to President Trump's attempt to dismiss a Fed governor [1][5]. - Silver prices also increased, reflecting a broader bullish trend in the precious metals market [1]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool indicates an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which is expected to lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [1][3]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - President Trump's attempt to remove Fed governor Cook has raised concerns about the erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence, prompting a lawsuit from Cook asserting the President's lack of authority to dismiss her [5]. - Analysts suggest that the pressure from the President may lead to expectations of accelerated rate cuts, providing strong support for gold prices [5]. Group 3: Global Central Bank Activity - Central banks worldwide are increasing their gold and silver reserves as part of a strategic adjustment, moving away from the "American exceptionalism" narrative [6]. Group 4: Future Price Projections - Market attention is focused on upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [8]. - Goldman Sachs maintains a mid-2026 gold price forecast of $4,000 per ounce, while Morgan Stanley suggests gold could approach $3,675 per ounce by year-end if the Fed's independence remains threatened [8]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to remain cautious and look for buying opportunities during market pullbacks, as the current market shows signs of being overbought [9]. - Various investment tools are recommended, including gold ETFs for short-term trading and physical gold for long-term investment [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent developments surrounding the U.S. Federal Reserve and rising geopolitical tensions have increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to a notable performance of the Gold ETF fund. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of August 28, 2025, the Gold ETF fund (159937) has risen by 0.17%, with a latest price of 7.45 yuan. Over the past week, the fund has accumulated a rise of 1.09% [1] - The Gold ETF fund has seen a significant net inflow of capital, totaling 164 million yuan over the past six days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 99.54 million yuan [1] - The fund's net asset value has increased by 81.14% over the past five years, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [2] Group 2: Trading and Liquidity - The Gold ETF fund has a trading volume of 50.23 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.18% [1] - The average daily trading volume over the past month is 609 million yuan, placing it in the top two among comparable funds [1] Group 3: Risk and Return Metrics - The fund has a Sharpe ratio of 2.32 over the past year, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns [3] - Year-to-date, the fund has a relative drawdown of 0.49% compared to its benchmark [4] - The fund's historical performance shows a 100% probability of profit over a three-year holding period, with an average monthly return of 3.23% [2] Group 4: Fees and Tracking Accuracy - The management fee for the Gold ETF fund is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10% [5] - The fund has a tracking error of 0.002% over the past month, indicating high tracking precision among comparable funds [5]

Group 1 - The Shanghai gold futures closed at 781.12 yuan per gram on August 26, with a daily increase of 0.28% and a trading volume of 118,442 contracts [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 776.86 yuan per gram, indicating a discount of 4.26 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [1] - The U.S. new home sales for July fell by 0.6% to an annualized rate of 652,000 units, exceeding market expectations of 630,000 units, with the median price down 5.9% year-on-year to $403,800 [1] Group 2 - Gold and silver prices are expected to receive support due to dovish signals from Fed Chair Powell, who emphasized employment risks at the Jackson Hole meeting, opening the door for a rate cut in September [3] - The COMEX gold futures fell by 0.23% to $3,410.70 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures dropped by 1.29% to $38.55 per ounce [3] - The anticipated range for COMEX gold is between $3,350 and $3,400 per ounce, while the Shanghai gold range is projected between 770 and 790 yuan per gram [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by President Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, which is perceived as a direct intervention in the Fed's independence, leading to a decline in the dollar's value and a subsequent increase in gold prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold prices experienced a significant increase of $30 following the announcement, with the dollar index dropping approximately 30 points [1]. - The market sentiment shifted dramatically due to the news, resulting in a strong upward movement in gold prices, which reached a high of $3376 before closing at $3365 [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Short-term outlook for gold remains bullish, but concerns about the sustainability of upward momentum exist, as market participants are cautious about the potential volatility [2]. - The dollar index is currently fluctuating within a moving average range, creating uncertainty for gold's price direction [2]. Group 3: Trading Strategy - Recommended trading strategy involves operating within a range of $3355 to $3380, with a stop loss of $5 and a take profit target of $15 to $20 [3]. - Traders are advised to be cautious and consider waiting for stabilization at key support levels before entering long positions, while also being prepared to short if resistance levels are encountered [2][3].