近期，美联储官员的表态再次让市场对"降息时间表"产生分歧。芝加哥联储主席指出，在看到通胀真正回落至 2% 之前，不宜贸然降息，而最新核心 PCE 同比仍在 3% 左右，显著高于目标水平。对于刚接触市场的投资者来说，这正是一次典型的外汇交易入门学习场景。 阿萨交易学社认为，宏观数据、货币政策预期与黄金价格之间的逻辑链条如何一步步传导，是理解当前行情的关键。 黄金本身不产生利息收益，因此利率环境对其定价影响巨大。阿萨交易学社分析师 Zero 指出，如果降息推迟，实际利率可能保持在较高水平，这会显著提 升持有黄金的机会成本，资金更倾向于流向高收益的债券或存款。 此外，高利率预期的维持会支撑美元指数走强，从计价货币的角度直接压制金价。这是 外汇交易入门学习 中常见的逻辑链条：利率维持高位往往利好美 元，而对黄金形成阶段性利空。 三、政策不确定性与避险情绪的对冲 除了通胀数据，关税政策带来的不确定性也让黄金处于"利空与利多并存"的复杂环境。一方面，高利率环境对黄金构成压力；另一方面，贸易政策的反复会 增加市场对经济前景的担忧，从而提升避险买盘的需求。 一、为什么 PCE 数据是汇市与金市的定价中枢？ 在 外汇交易入门学 ...

每经编辑｜陈柯名 向江林 2月15日，比特币价格继续剧烈波动，今日一度触及71000美元/枚的比特币再度直线跳水，截至发稿跌至69225.91美元/枚。以太坊更是跌超3%。 剧烈波动下，加密货币近24小时全球有超8万人爆仓。 投资者还将密切关注下周三公布的美联储会议纪要，以评估支持维持利率不变的官员与主张降息的官员之间的分歧。 | 1H爆仓 | $299.76万 | 4H爆仓 | $6427.42万 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 多車 | $103.05万 | 多車 | $5907.24万 | | 空車 | $196.71万 | 空車 | $520.19万 | | 12H爆仓 | $1.37亿 | 24H爆仓 | $2.14亿 | | 名東 | $9132.65万 | 多車 | $1.19亿 | | 空单 | $4563.94万 | 容単 | $9460.85万 | 消息面上，春节周来临，美联储降息又将迎来重要变数。 2月20日周五，"美联储最爱通胀指标"去年12月PCE数据及第四季度GDP初值将公布。 彭博经济预计，去年12月核心PCE物价指数环比或上涨0.3%，将同比推高至2 ...

最近公布的美国经济数据虽然在一定程度上符合预期，但由于数据滞后和多重因素的影响，美联储在即将召开的1月政策会议上，可能会选择维持现有的利 率水平，继续观察经济和通胀趋势。 美国经济分析局报告称，去年11月核心PCE价格指数环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨2.8%。整体PCE也呈现类似上涨幅度，符合市场预期。通胀压力依然存在，但 并没有加速的迹象。 美联储目前在处理通胀和就业市场的复杂局面时，面临的挑战在于如何平衡通胀压力和经济增长。 PCE数据提供了一个相对稳定的通胀图景，由于其滞后性和与政府停摆相关的数据扭曲，美联储可能不会将其作为立即调整政策的依据。 当前的经济增速和消费者支出稳定性也表明，美国经济仍具有一定韧性，但政策调整的时机可能会推迟，直到美联储能够通过更具时效性的数据确认经济走 势。 因此，1月的政策会议上维持现有利率的可能性较大，美联储在决策时需要更多考虑未来几个月内的数据更新。 美联储通常高度重视PCE作为通胀指标，但由于数据滞后，官员们可能会对这些数据保持谨慎态度，不会把它作为未来政策变动的主要依据。 关于美国消费者支出的数据也显示出一定的经济韧性。去年11月，调整后的个人支出增长了0.3%，是连 ...

隔夜，现货黄金收盘上涨1.4%，报4830.56美元，金价盘中曾触及4888.59美元，刷新纪录高位，而在特朗普表态后，金价一度暴跌至4755.55美 元。今日亚市早盘，黄金突然遭遇一波抛售，目前在4830美元附近徘徊。 "格陵兰危机"转折！ 隔夜，美国三大股指全线上涨，截至收盘，道指涨1.21%，标普500指数涨1.16%，纳指涨1.18%。 消息面上，特朗普称暂时不会对欧洲8国加征关税。 当地时间21日，美国总统特朗普在瑞士达沃斯举办的世界经济论坛年会上发表演讲。 随后，特朗普在社交媒体发文称，他已经同北约秘书长吕特 就未来达成有关格陵兰岛的协议制定了框架，因此不会实施原定于2月1日生效、对欧洲8国加征关税的措施。 美国不要格陵兰岛了？ 根本不是。特朗普只是看似安抚一下欧洲，但很明确，美国不拿下格陵兰岛不罢休，因为"那是我们的地盘"。 不过，欧洲暂时大舒了一口气。 终于，特朗普承诺，不会对格陵兰岛动用武力，终于，特朗普宣布，暂时不加征关税。 但且慢，既然特朗普第二天能180度大转弯，那第三天，会不会又是180度，这样就360度了呢。 此外，在达沃斯世界经济论坛演讲中，特朗普还谈到了美联储。 据报道，特朗普 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in gold prices is primarily driven by dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and a weakening dollar, which has provided moderate support for precious metals [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices are maintaining a steady upward trend below $4240, supported by the market's focus on dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1]. - The dollar is under pressure, nearing its lowest point since late October, which enhances the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [1]. - The upcoming release of the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is expected to influence gold prices significantly, with overall inflation anticipated to rise from 2.7% to 2.8% and core PCE remaining at 2.9% [2]. Group 2: Employment Data Impact - The labor market shows strong performance, with a 53% month-over-month decrease in planned layoffs and initial jobless claims dropping to 191,000, the lowest in over three years [1]. - Despite robust employment data, market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve remain high, indicating that investors are more focused on inflation trends and policy direction rather than solely on employment figures [1]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Key resistance levels for gold are identified between $4245 and $4250, with a breakthrough potentially targeting $4277 to $4278, and further towards the $4300 mark [4]. - Support levels are noted at $4163 to $4164, with stronger structural support between $4100 and $4090, including the 4-hour 200 EMA and an upward trend line [4]. - The market is advised to observe breakout directions around these levels rather than chasing high prices before the PCE data release [4].

北京时间23:00，美联储最青睐的通胀指标——PCE数据将公布。鉴于CPI数据已官宣缺席，今晚数据将 是美联储12月会议前的唯一通胀指引，该报告的每一处细节都将被市场放大检视，届时警惕行情波动。 （格隆汇） ...

Core Insights - China is implementing export controls on rare earth materials, ensuring that compliant applications for civilian use are approved promptly by the government [2][8] - President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of mutual understanding and support between China and France during a meeting with President Macron, highlighting the need to maintain the political foundation of Sino-French relations [2][8] - In the U.S., initial jobless claims unexpectedly decreased by 27,000 to 191,000, marking the lowest level since September 2022 [2][8] Market Analysis - The A-share market showed a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.51% to 3,878 points and the ChiNext Index declining by 1.12% [2][8] - Sector performance varied, with machinery, electronics, and defense industries leading gains, while beauty care, social services, retail, and textiles faced significant declines [2][8] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was below 1.6 trillion yuan [2][8] - U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.22% to 23,505.14 points [2][8] Futures Market - In the futures market, the basis for IC and IM contracts is showing continued recovery from discounts [2][8] - Trading volume and open interest for the four major futures contracts have decreased simultaneously [2][8] Strategy Outlook - Market sentiment has cooled ahead of the PCE data release, leading to mixed performance in U.S. stock markets [3][9] - The domestic market remains in a contraction phase, characterized by a stable but oscillating trend with overall low risk [3][9]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations, with prices remaining above 4200, influenced by weak U.S. employment data and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, while silver shows strong performance, reaching new highs [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices fluctuated, reaching a high of 4241 before closing near 4203, indicating a potential consolidation phase [1] - Silver prices have been strong, hitting 58.95, providing support for gold and reflecting market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - The U.S. labor market's unexpected decline and clear signals of a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy have contributed to the rise in silver and the potential for gold to gain momentum [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Short-term support levels for gold are identified at 4193, with further support at 4175 and 4163, while resistance is noted at 4245 and 4265 [2][5] - The market is currently in a significant support zone, indicating a potential for correction and further testing of lower levels [2] - Recent trading patterns show a lack of continuation, with frequent high-to-low reversals, suggesting insufficient bullish momentum [2]

Group 1 - The core PCE inflation rate for August recorded at 2.9%, meeting expectations and unchanged from the previous value [1] - Overall PCE inflation rate for August recorded at 2.7%, also meeting expectations but higher than the previous value of 2.60% [1] - Personal spending in August exceeded expectations, reaching the highest level since March 2025, indicating resilience in consumer demand [1] Group 2 - Despite a significant slowdown in the labor market and stagnation in job growth, consumption continues to rise, primarily driven by high-income households benefiting from a strong stock market and elevated housing prices [4] - U.S. household wealth surged to a record $176.3 trillion in Q2, but low-income households face pressure due to rising commodity prices from import tariffs [4] - The risk of consumption growth is concentrated among high-income households, with potential vulnerabilities tied to stock market and housing price fluctuations [4] Group 3 - Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasized the focus on balancing inflation and unemployment, indicating limited risks of further deterioration in both metrics [5] - The Federal Reserve recently voted to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in response to growing concerns about labor market slowdown [5] - Discrepancies among Federal Reserve officials regarding future rate cuts exist, with some advocating for continued cuts to mitigate employment risks while others remain concerned about inflation potential [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. Commerce Department will release the August core PCE price index year-on-year data, with the previous value at 2.9% and the expected value remaining unchanged [2] - The core PCE data is a key basis for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments, and stable data performance is beneficial for maintaining the current interest rate cut trend [2] - The labor market in the U.S. has shown weakness since May, leading the Federal Reserve to shift focus from PCE data to non-farm payroll reports [2] Group 2 - The Swiss National Bank is expected to maintain a zero interest rate in its September rate decision, as inflation remains low at 0.7% in August, below the previous value of 0.8% [4] - The Swiss economy is experiencing weak inflation, which corresponds to a loose monetary policy, and the Swiss franc may face significant pressure due to the zero interest rate environment [4] - Despite the zero interest rate, the Swiss franc retains its safe-haven status, which may lead to appreciation against the U.S. dollar and euro amid global economic uncertainty [4] Group 3 - Major developed countries will release manufacturing PMI data, with expectations for France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK showing mixed results, while the U.S. manufacturing PMI is expected to decline slightly [5] - The manufacturing outlook in Europe appears positive, with expected values above the 50 mark, except for the UK, indicating growth [5] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI is still above the 50 mark, suggesting limited impact on the U.S. dollar index despite a slight expected decline [5]