Core Insights - The Prime Minister of Kyrgyzstan, Kasymaliev, announced that the GDP is expected to reach 1.8 trillion som (approximately 20.69 billion USD) by 2025, with an economic growth rate exceeding 10% [1] - The national budget has surpassed 1 trillion som (approximately 11.5 billion USD) for the first time in history, with a budget surplus of 34.3 billion som (approximately 3.9 million USD) [1] - There has been a structural change in fiscal spending, with expenditures for economic development surpassing those for social sectors for the first time [1] - A total of 341 infrastructure projects have been put into operation during the reporting period [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese economy, specifically the Q4 GDP and December activity data, including industrial production (IP), fixed asset investment (FAI), and retail sales [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Industrial Production (IP) Growth**: - Expected to rise to **5.4% year-on-year (yoy)** in December from **4.8% yoy** in November, driven by stronger-than-expected manufacturing PMIs and exports [1][2]. - Manufacturing exports projected to increase to **6.6% yoy** in December from **5.9% yoy** in November [2]. - Notable decline in auto output growth to **-4.6% yoy** in December from **+3.0% yoy** in November, and a widening contraction in steel production to **-5.1% yoy** [2][10]. 2. **Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)**: - Year-on-year FAI growth expected to remain depressed at **-8.9%** in December, slightly improving from **-10.7%** in November [1][10]. - Year-to-date FAI growth forecasted at **-3.3% yoy** in December, reflecting both statistical corrections and structural headwinds such as "anti-involution" policies and a prolonged property downturn [10]. 3. **Retail Sales**: - Anticipated to slow further to **0.6% yoy** in December from **1.3% yoy** in November, influenced by declining auto sales and subdued home appliance sales due to funding shortages [1][10]. - Auto retail sales volume growth dropped to **-14% yoy** in December from **-8% yoy** in November [10]. 4. **Real GDP Growth**: - Forecasted to moderate to **4.5% yoy** in Q4 from **4.8% yoy** in Q3, with domestic demand weakening despite resilient exports [1][10]. - The forecast suggests that the full-year real GDP growth for 2025 would be around **5.0%**, aligning with the government's growth target [10]. Additional Important Insights - The report indicates that the forecasts for December IP are modestly above market consensus, while those for retail sales and FAI are below consensus [7][10]. - The services industry output index is expected to remain stable and outperform retail sales growth, indicating a shift in consumption patterns towards services [10]. - The report highlights the potential for revisions in historical estimates of sequential GDP growth when the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releases quarterly GDP data [10]. This summary encapsulates the key points and insights from the conference call regarding the Chinese economy's performance and expectations for Q4 and December activity data.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the U.S. economic indicators, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and new home sales, which are critical for assessing inflation and economic growth trends. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **CPI and Core CPI Performance**: - December core CPI rose by 0.24% month-over-month, which was below expectations, with a year-over-year rate of 2.64% [6][9] - Key components such as airfares (+5.2%), hotels (+3.5%), and apparel (+0.6%) showed significant rebounds after previous distortions due to shutdowns [6][8] - The rent and owners' equivalent rent components also rebounded, indicating a return to normal inflation rates after methodological adjustments [6][7] 2. **Sector Contributions**: - The communications category declined by 1.9%, contributing -7 basis points to the core CPI, while household furnishings and operations fell by 0.5%, contributing -3 basis points [6] - Notably, the software category rose by 7%, which has a significant weight in the core PCE [8] 3. **PCE Price Index Estimates**: - The core PCE price index is estimated to have risen by 0.37% in December, leading to a year-over-year rate of +2.85% [9] - The headline PCE price index is also expected to have increased by 0.37% in December, reflecting a 2.74% increase from the previous year [9] 4. **New Home Sales Data**: - New home sales increased by 1.8% month-over-month for October, reaching a seasonally adjusted annualized level of 737,000 units, which was above expectations [10] - Sales in August were revised down to 711,000 units, indicating a stronger performance in September and October than previously anticipated [10] 5. **GDP Tracking Adjustments**: - The stronger-than-expected single-family home sales led to an upward revision of the Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1 percentage points to +2.2% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) [11] - The domestic final sales estimate for Q4 stands at +0.9% [11] Additional Important Information - The report emphasizes that investors should consider these economic indicators as part of a broader analysis when making investment decisions [3] - The data reflects ongoing adjustments in the housing market and inflation trends, which are crucial for understanding the economic landscape [6][10][11]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Rise and Fall, Consolidating for Momentum - Guoxin Futures Non-ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated January 11, 2026 [2][3] Group 2: Table of Contents - The report includes sections on market review, fundamental analysis, and outlook for the future [4] Group 3: Market Review - This section presents the price trend of the nickel futures main contract [7] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis - Upstream: It shows the port inventory of nickel ore in China [12] - Midstream: It includes the prices of electrolytic nickel, nickel sulfate, and 8 - 12% nickel - iron, as well as the monthly import volume of nickel - iron [15][18][20] - Downstream: It covers the price, position, and inventory of stainless steel, as well as the production of power and energy - storage batteries and new energy vehicles [22][30][32] Group 5: Outlook for the Future - In the US, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time in December 2025, with the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%. The GDP growth rate in Q3 2025 was 4.3%. There are differences in views on future interest - rate cuts, and the market is concerned about the new Fed chair. The probabilities of different interest - rate scenarios are provided. In China, the manufacturing PMI in December 2025 was 50.1%, and the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026 [38] - The Shanghai nickel futures showed a rise - and - fall trend this week. Nickel inventory is at a high level. The 2026 RKAB quota in Indonesia may be 2.5 billion tons, lower than in 2025. Indonesian nickel - iron production in December remained high, with large supply pressure. Stainless - steel demand enters the off - season, but production has increased due to price hikes. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 130,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,800 - 14,200 yuan/ton [38]

Group 1 - A report covering personal income, consumer spending, and PCE inflation data for October and November will be published on January 22 [1] - An initial estimate of GDP for the final three months of 2025 will be released on February 20 [1]

Mortgage Rates Overview - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has decreased to 6.24%, down from 6.25% last week, marking the lowest level since September 2024 [1] - The current mortgage rates for various loan types are as follows: 30-year at 6.24%, 15-year at 5.54%, and 30-year jumbo at 6.42% [2] Economic Context - The U.S. economy expanded by 4.3% in the summer months, which typically influences mortgage rates positively [5] - The national median family income for 2025 is projected at $104,200, with the median home price at $409,200, leading to a monthly payment of $2,013, which is about 23% of the typical family's income [3] Future Projections - Analysts expect the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to potentially fall below 6% for the first time since summer 2022, with estimates as low as 5.5% due to anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts [6] - The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts that mortgage rates will remain around 6.4% throughout 2026, citing a growing economy and persistent inflation [6]

Economic Growth Projections - The farm sector is estimated to grow by 3.1% in 2025-26, slower than the 4.6% growth from the previous year but still considered robust [2][3] - The mining sector is projected to contract by 0.7% in 2025-26, contrasting with a growth of 2.7% last year [2][3] - The manufacturing sector is expected to maintain a strong growth rate of 7% in 2025-26, up from 4.5% in the previous fiscal year [3] Aggregate Demand and Consumption - The first advance estimates indicate flat aggregate demand in FY26, with government consumption contributing positively with a growth of 5.2% in real terms [2][3] - Exports are showing positive growth of 6.4%, while private consumption growth is slightly lower at 7.0%, potentially due to the slowdown in the agriculture sector [2][3] - Per capita consumption has registered a growth of 6.1% [2][3] Sectoral Insights - The construction sector continues to show healthy growth at 7%, although this is a decrease from the 9.4% increase in 2024-25 [3] - The uptick in government consumption and traction in services has helped sustain demand in FY26, mitigating the effects of external headwinds [2][3]

Core Viewpoints - The internal demand remains weak in December due to base effects and policy timing, but it is expected to recover in early 2026 as expansionary policies are introduced [2][3] GDP - The GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter is projected to be around 4.3%, a decline from the previous quarter due to factors such as a slowdown in industrial production and construction [5][15] - Industrial production growth is expected to be 5.2% year-on-year in Q4, down from 5.8% in Q3, with December's growth at 6.0% [5][15] - The construction sector is anticipated to see a further decline in GDP growth, with projections of -3% in Q4 compared to -2.3% in Q3 [5][15] Prices - CPI is expected to rise by 0.1% month-on-month in December, with a year-on-year increase from 0.7% to around 0.8% [6][16] - PPI is projected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, with a year-on-year improvement from -2.2% to approximately -2.0% [6][16] Production - Industrial production growth is expected to be around 6.0% in December, with a notable seasonal rebound observed in previous months [18] - Manufacturing investment growth is projected to decline to 1.3%, while real estate investment is expected to drop by 16.8% [7][22] External Trade - December exports are expected to grow by around 3.5% year-on-year, while imports are projected to increase by 1% [19][21] - The strong external demand is expected to support export growth despite a high base effect [19][20] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth is anticipated to decline to around -3.3% for the year, with significant drops in real estate and infrastructure investments [22][23] - New infrastructure projects worth over 400 billion yuan are expected to be approved, which may stabilize investment in early 2026 [22] Real Estate Sales - Real estate sales are projected to decline by around 15% in December, with a cumulative decrease of 8.6% for the year [24][23] Retail Sales - Retail sales growth is expected to be around 1.0% in December, with essential consumption showing a growth rate of 3.5% [26] - The automotive sector is anticipated to continue its decline, impacting overall retail performance [26] Financial Sector - New social financing is expected to reach 2.3 trillion yuan in December, a decrease of 470 billion yuan compared to the previous year [27] - M2 growth is projected to be around 7.9%, while M1 is expected to see a slight increase due to seasonal factors [28]

Economic Overview - India's GDP has reached approximately $4.18 trillion, surpassing Japan to become the world's fourth-largest economy, with projections to grow to $7.3 trillion by 2030 [1][2] - The growth trajectory suggests India may overtake Germany within three years, becoming the third-largest economy globally [1] Consumption and Demographics - A significant driver of India's economic growth is its demographic advantage, with consumption contributing nearly 55% to 60% of GDP [1] - The country has recently become the most populous in the world, with over a quarter of its population aged between 10 and 26, which is expected to bolster consumer spending and investment [1] Government Policies - The Modi government's "Production-Linked Incentive Scheme" aims to stimulate growth by incentivizing local manufacturing in strategic sectors such as electronics, defense, and pharmaceuticals [2] Economic Growth Rate Concerns - Despite reported growth rates of 8.2% for the second quarter of FY2025, some economists argue that the actual growth rate may only be between 2.5% and 3% due to discrepancies in data collection and economic modeling [4][5] - Critics highlight that the reliance on outdated benchmarks and the exclusion of informal sector activities may distort the true economic picture [4][6] Structural Issues - A review of 22 core economic indicators revealed that only 9 showed growth, indicating underlying structural issues within the economy [6] - Key sectors such as mining and energy are underperforming, with mining growth nearly stagnant at 0.04% and electricity demand declining to a growth rate of 4.4% [6] Comparison with Japan - While India's nominal GDP exceeds Japan's, the quality of growth is questioned, as India's expansion is largely driven by the service sector rather than a robust industrial base [6] - India's per capita GDP of approximately $2,800 suggests that the economy is still in a phase of scale expansion without sufficient depth in industrial development, highlighting a significant gap compared to mature East Asian manufacturing economies [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Chinese economy** and its performance indicators, particularly focusing on the **Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)** for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors in December 2025. Core Insights and Arguments - **PMI Performance**: - The official manufacturing PMI rose to **50.1**, an increase of **0.9 percentage points (pp)** from November, surpassing market expectations (Citi/market: **49.3/49.2**) [4][8] - This marks the first expansion after **eight consecutive months of contraction** [4] - The non-manufacturing PMI also returned to expansion, climbing **0.7pp** to **50.2**, exceeding the consensus of **49.6** [5] - **GDP Forecast**: - The improving PMI data supports a **5% GDP growth target** for 2025, which has been maintained since June [6] - Incremental fiscal funds of approximately **RMB1 trillion** are anticipated as a likely ceiling for the year [6] - **Policy Support**: - Policymakers have pledged measured support for 2026, with a focus on the pace of policy deployment leading up to the National People's Congress (NPC) [6] - Recent government actions include renewing the trade-in program for durable goods and introducing new tax incentives for home purchases [6] - **Sector Performance**: - **Manufacturing Output**: The production index increased by **1.7pp** to **51.7**, driven partly by a low base from November [7] - **Demand Indicators**: New orders rose **1.6pp** to **50.8**, marking a return to expansion for the first time in six months [7] - **Export Orders**: New export orders gained **1.4pp** to **49.0**, the highest in nine months, indicating potential positive year-over-year export growth in December [7] - **Construction Sector**: Construction PMI jumped **3.2pp** to **52.8**, reflecting unseasonably warm temperatures and earlier policy measures [7] - **Price Indices**: - The purchasing price index eased by **0.5pp** to **53.1**, while the producer price index firmed **0.7pp** to **48.9**, which may alleviate some pressure on industrial profitability [7] - **Inventory Levels**: - Finished goods inventories increased **0.9pp** to **48.2**, indicating improving activity but still below the neutral mark of 50 [7] - **Services Sector**: - The services PMI edged up to **49.7**, remaining in contraction for a second consecutive month, reflecting ongoing weakness in domestic consumption [7] Additional Important Insights - The **uneven recovery** is highlighted by the performance disparity between large/medium-sized enterprises and small firms, with the latter showing signs of weakness [4] - The **January-February period** is identified as a critical window for potential rate or reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts [6] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the Chinese economy as reflected in the PMI data and government policy responses.