Economic Performance - In Q2, the actual GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, supported by durable consumer goods subsidies contributing 2.7 percentage points and net exports contributing 1.2 percentage points[3] - The nominal GDP growth rate fell to 3.9%, down 0.7 percentage points from Q1, indicating insufficient domestic consumption and investment momentum[3] Consumer Trends - Retail sales in June showed a year-on-year increase of 4.8% and 5.5% for above-limit retail, both down from May by 1.6 and 2.7 percentage points respectively[4] - The decline in essential goods and dining revenues was attributed to adverse weather conditions, while durable goods related to real estate maintained high growth, with June showing a 10.2% increase[4] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment in June fell by 0.1% year-on-year, marking the first monthly negative growth since 2022, with real estate development investment down by 12.9%[5] - Manufacturing and broad infrastructure investments decreased by 3.4% and 5.0% respectively, reflecting high base effects and strict control over local government debt[5] Real Estate Market - Residential sales area saw a significant year-on-year decline of 7.3%, with new and second-hand housing prices continuing to drop, indicating ongoing adjustments in the real estate market[5] - The price-to-income ratio in the real estate market remains high, with new and second-hand housing prices falling by 0.3% and 0.6% respectively in June[5] Industrial Output - Industrial value added rose by 1.0 percentage points to 6.8% in June, with manufacturing and mining sectors showing increases of 1.2 and 0.4 percentage points respectively[28] - Key manufacturing sectors such as textiles and chemicals showed significant recovery, while automotive manufacturing experienced a slight decline but remained in a high growth range[28] Future Outlook - The sustainability of high economic growth in the second half of the year is uncertain, with potential downward pressures on exports and consumption due to external factors and ongoing real estate market challenges[6] - Monetary and fiscal policies may need to be effectively timed to stimulate the economy, especially if export performance declines rapidly post-August[6] Risks - Risks include the possibility of fiscal expansion falling short of expectations and a greater-than-expected decline in exports[7]

Economic Growth - China's economy grew by 5.4% year-on-year in Q1 and 5.2% in Q2, resulting in a 5.3% growth for the first half of the year, exceeding market expectations [1][7] - The GDP for the first half of 2025 is estimated at 660,536 billion RMB, with the tertiary sector contributing the most at 390,314 billion RMB, growing by 5.5% [3] Sector Performance - The tertiary sector accounted for 59.1% of GDP, driven by digital economy and consumption upgrades [3] - The secondary sector's value added was 239,050 billion RMB, growing by 5.3%, with high-end manufacturing (including new energy and semiconductors) as the core growth driver [3][9] - The primary sector contributed 31,172 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 3.7%, showing mixed performance in agricultural outputs [3] Income and Consumption - The per capita disposable income for residents was 21,840 RMB, with a nominal growth of 5.3% and a real growth of 5.4% after adjusting for inflation [3] Currency and GDP Conversion - The average exchange rate for the first half of 2025 was approximately 7.18 RMB per USD, leading to a GDP of about 919.47 billion USD [4][6] - The RMB depreciated slightly against the USD, with a year-on-year decline of 1.1% [6][9] Economic Resilience - Despite challenges from international trade tensions and domestic structural adjustments, China's GDP growth demonstrates resilience, particularly in the face of the trade war initiated by the Trump administration [7][9] - The high-end manufacturing sector has shown robust growth, countering the downturn in traditional industries [9] Future Outlook - The economic performance in the first half of the year lays a solid foundation for achieving annual development goals, with expectations for continued stable growth in the second half [10]

Economic Performance - In Q2 2025, GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a slowdown from Q1, with nominal GDP growth at 3.9%, down by 0.7 percentage points from Q1[2] - For the first half of 2025, GDP growth reached 5.3%, exceeding the annual target of around 5%[5] - The contribution rates of the three drivers of economic growth in Q2 were 52.3% from final consumption, 24.7% from capital formation, and 23% from net exports[2] Consumption Trends - In June, retail sales growth slowed to 4.8% year-on-year, with cumulative growth at 5%[2] - The decline in restaurant income was significant, dropping by 5 percentage points to 0.9% in June[11] - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy's impact weakened in June, affecting consumer spending[19] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment in H1 2025 totaled 248,654 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, down from 3.7%[23] - Manufacturing investment saw a significant decline, with a growth rate of 7.5%, down by 1 percentage point[25] - Infrastructure investment growth was 4.6% in H1, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous month[31] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment fell by 11.2% year-on-year in H1 2025, with residential investment down by 10.4%[51] - The sales area of new residential properties decreased by 3.5% in H1, indicating ongoing demand weakness[40] - In June, the prices of second-hand homes in first-tier cities turned downward, while new home prices in first-tier cities showed a narrowing decline[40] Industrial Production - Industrial added value in June grew by 6.8% year-on-year, with a cumulative growth of 6.4% for H1[53] - The manufacturing sector's growth was driven by strong performance in the automotive and high-tech industries, with growth rates of 11.4%[59] - The production-sales rate in June was 93.3%, indicating a significant drop and suggesting overproduction relative to demand[63]

RT pibbles (@0xpibs)REV maxis love to call @arbitrum just a "HL bridge" but overlook the fact that the bridge accounts for almost 10% of USDC's supply - generating over $100m in annualised revenue for Circle on Arbitrum's "HL bridge".Say what you want about chain REV, or lack thereof, but if we're calling for a "revenue meta" and ignoring GDP then we're missing the point - TradFi certainly isn't.Just this week , Fidelity released a report using GDP in their blockchain valuation model. ...

Economic Overview - The preliminary GDP for the first half of 2025 is 66,053.6 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.3% at constant prices [2] - The industrial added value for large-scale industries increased by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half, with a 6.8% growth in June [5] Investment and Consumption - National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 24,865.4 billion yuan in the first half, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [8] - The total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 24,545.8 billion yuan in the first half, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, with a 4.8% increase in June [11] Price Indices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year in the first half, with a slight increase of 0.1% in June [15] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half, with a 3.6% decline in June [16] Financial Indicators - The total social financing scale increased by 22.83 trillion yuan in the first half, which is 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [19] - New RMB loans added up to 12.92 trillion yuan in the first half [20] - The broad money supply (M2) reached 330.29 trillion yuan at the end of June, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.3% [21] Trade Performance - The total import and export value of goods reached 21.79 trillion yuan in the first half, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [25]

#数据 中国第二季度GDP增速5.3%，预期5.1%，前值5.4%，6月规模以上工业增加值同比增6.8%，预期5.6%；6月社会消费品零售总额同比增4.8%，预期5.6%；6月城镇调查失业率5.0%，预期5.0%；1-6月城镇固定资产投资同比增2.8%，预期3.7%。 https://t.co/xDXwRKY4eA ...

China to Release Q2 GDP and Key Economic Data: Live Updates https://t.co/PesbQb6PXe ...

中国经济的真实图景：超越美元幻象 国际媒体上充斥着"中美差距扩大"、"越南超越中国"的论调，与中国GDP持续攀升、预计2025年突破140万亿元人民币的现实形成鲜明对比。这种矛盾的表 象背后，隐藏着哪些真相？让我们抽丝剥茧，从数据中寻找答案。 2025年，中国GDP预计达到140万亿元人民币，比2023年增长超过10万亿元，相当于再造一个山东省的经济规模！这听起来令人振奋，然而，将这一数字换 算成美元，却呈现出截然不同的景象：中美GDP差距非但没有缩小，反而扩大了。 2024年中美GDP差距为X美元，预计2025年将扩大到Y美元，一年间差距 增加了近Z美元。 为何中国经济高速增长，美元账面却显示落后？这其中的奥秘，在于汇率和通胀这两个关键因素。 首先，汇率波动扮演着重要角色。2025年上半年，人民币兑美元平均汇率为A，较2024年的B有所贬值。仅此一项，就使中国GDP的美元换算值"缩水"了 1600亿美元。 如果仍采用去年的汇率计算，140万亿元人民币可折算成C美元，但在新的汇率下，则只能折算成D美元。这就好比手里的一堆钞票，兑换能 力因汇率变化而降低。 2022年：中国PPP GDP为T美元，领先美国约U美 ...

美国白宫经济委员会主任Hassett：从GDP来看，经济并未过热。 ...

来源：市场资讯 编译：GaryMa 吴说区块链 摘要 吴说本周宏观指标与分析：上周美联储会议纪要重申谨慎政策立场，市场预期 7 月降息概率渺茫。本周 可重点关注美国 6 月通胀数据 CPI & PPI、 美联储经济状况褐皮书以及美联储官员讲话等。 上周回顾美联储公布 6 月货币政策会议纪要，美联储审议了近期金融市场和经济形势。会议指出，尽管 近几个月通胀有所缓解，但仍高于 2% 的长期目标，且短期通胀预期偏高。与会者认为经济增长稳健， 失业率维持在低位，消费与投资数据总体稳定，但贸易政策不确定性、地缘政治风险和关税上调带来的 潜在影响仍构成主要风险。美国至 7 月 5 日当周初请失业金人数 22.7 万人，预期 23.5 万人，前值由 23.3 万人修正为 23.2 万人。中国外汇储备规模为 33174 亿美元，较 5 月末上升 322 亿美元，升幅为 0.98%。中国 6 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.1%。 本周重点事件 & 指标 7 月 14 日 美国总统特朗普计划就俄罗斯问题发表"重大声明" 7 月 15 日中国第二季度 GDP 年率（10:00）美国 6 月未季调 CPI 年率（20:30） 7 月 1 ...