| | □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 投资者关系 | □媒体采访 ■业绩说明会 | | 活动类别 | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | | | □其他（请文字说明其他活动内容） | | 参与单位名称及 | 国联证券曲芮萱、华西证券林熹，通过上证路演中心参加中 | | 人员姓名 | 国船舶集团控股上市公司 2024 年度集体业绩说明会暨 2025 | | | 年第一季度业绩说明会的其他投资者 | | 时间 | 年 月 日 2025 5 20 14:30 | | 地点 | 上证路演中心（https://roadshow.sseinfo.com） | | 上市公司接待人 | 董事长郭良贤先生、独立董事王永新先生、财务总监兼董事 | | 员姓名 | 会秘书兼总法律顾问（首席合规官）吴昌仁先生等 本次集体业绩说明会以现场交流、视频直播和网络文字 | | | 互动的方式进行，交流主要内容如下： 谋 | | | 1. 2025 年是"十四五"收官之年，也是在"十五五" | | | 划的重要一年，面对光电行业技术迭代加速、军工政策变化 | | 投资者关系活动 | 与调整 ...

Group 1 - The Hangzhou Municipal People's Congress will hold its 14th session from May 22 to May 25, focusing on the government's work report and economic development plans for 2024 and 2025 [2][3] - The conference will include a series of organized interviews, such as the "Director Channel" and "Representative Channel," to facilitate communication between government officials and the public [3][4] - The conference is significant as it marks the conclusion of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the planning phase for the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing high-quality development and common prosperity in Zhejiang [1][2] Group 2 - The Hangzhou Municipal Political Consultative Conference will take place from May 21 to May 24, with over 500 members participating [3] - The agenda includes reviewing the work report of the Standing Committee and discussing government reports, as well as addressing personnel matters and proposals from the previous session [3] - The conference will adopt a combination of plenary sessions and group discussions, allowing for cross-dialogue with the People's Congress [3]

封面专题： "十四五"回顾与"十五五"前瞻 2025年是"十四五"规划收官之年，也是"十五五"规划谋篇布局之年。习近平总书记在党的二十届三中 全会第二次全体会议上强调，要总结评估"十四五"规划落实情况，切实搞好"十五五"规划前期谋划工 作。2024年12月召开的中央经济工作会议提出，要扎实推动高质量发展，高质量完成"十四五"规划目标 任务，为实现"十五五"良好开局打牢基础。 回顾"十四五"，国内外发展环境发生重大深刻变化，面对复杂严峻的国际、国内环境，我国坚持稳中求 进 总基调，强化宏观政策统筹协调，推动高质量发展取得新突破：国内生产总值（GDP）跨过120万亿 元台 阶，内需对经济增长的贡献率提高，居民消费持续恢复增长，投资、贸易、金融领域发展动力和 活力增强， 新质生产力加快形成，数字经济和实体经济深度融合，经济金融领域风险有效化解，经济 社会高质量新发展 格局迈出重要步伐。 前瞻"十五五"，这是我国应对百年变局、塑造战略优势的关键时期，是开启全面建设社会主义现代化国 家 新征程后，为2035年基本实现社会主义现代化进一步夯实基础的重要阶段。在这个关键阶段，要把 稳定经 济增长放在更加突出重要位置，要尽快 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.40% to 3367.46 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.07% to 10179.60 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.19% to 2039.45 points, indicating a significant loss effect in the market [1] - The total trading volume of the two markets reached 1.09 trillion yuan, reflecting a relatively active trading environment despite the declines [1] - The Aerospace ETF (159227) rose by 0.20% to a closing price of 0.99 yuan, with a trading volume of 28.6024 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest [1] Group 2 - The military industry is showing significant signs of performance recovery, with expectations for gradual improvement in fundamentals and sentiment as the 14th Five-Year Plan approaches its conclusion [1] - The military sector is expected to experience substantial domestic demand growth from 2025 to 2027, driven by multiple catalysts including the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the "Centenary of the Army" goals [1] - The National Aerospace Index (CN5082) has a high concentration in the military industry, with 99.2% of its coverage dedicated to core companies in the military sector, particularly in aviation and aerospace equipment [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Aerospace Index account for 52.89% of the index, highlighting the dominance of key players in the aerospace sector [2]

Economic Growth and Achievements - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has seen 99% of its 102 major projects and over 5,000 specific projects completed ahead of schedule [1] - China's GDP reached 134.91 trillion yuan in 2024, an increase of 31.42 trillion yuan from 2020, with an expected economic increment exceeding 30 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3] - The average GDP growth rates from 2021 to 2024 were 8.6%, 3.1%, 5.4%, and 5.0%, consistently higher than the global average [2] Industrial Development - The modern industrial system has made significant progress, with the primary industry maintaining steady growth and the secondary and tertiary industries contributing the most to GDP [4] - The added value of the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing industries grew by 7.7% and 8.9% respectively in 2024, surpassing the overall industrial growth rates [4] Emerging Industries - The "Three New" economy (new industries, new business formats, and new models) accounted for over 18% of GDP in 2024, with China leading globally in several sectors, including electric vehicles and renewable energy installations [5][6] - The digital economy's core industries contributed approximately 10% to GDP, achieving the targets set in the "14th Five-Year Plan" ahead of schedule [5][6] Trade and Export Performance - In 2024, China's total goods import and export volume reached 43.85 trillion yuan, marking a historical high and maintaining its position as the world's largest goods trader for eight consecutive years [7] - The export of mechanical and electrical products amounted to 15.12 trillion yuan in 2024, accounting for 59.43% of total exports, with significant growth in high-end equipment exports [7] - Cross-border e-commerce saw explosive growth, with imports and exports reaching 2.63 trillion yuan in 2024, a 55% increase from 2020 [8] Regional Trade Dynamics - ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner, with a trade surplus of 190.71 billion USD in 2024, reflecting a shift in trade dynamics and alignment with the "14th Five-Year Plan" goals [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating an expected increase of over 15% relative to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [25]. Core Views - The company, Zhenhua Technology, reported a total revenue of 5.219 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 32.99%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 970 million yuan, down 63.83% [6][10]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a slight improvement, with revenue of 908 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 10.4%, and a net profit of 58.51 million yuan, down 42.6% [7][10]. - The company focuses on new electronic components, which accounted for 99.18% of its revenue in 2024, indicating a strong commitment to its core business despite industry challenges [7][10]. - The report highlights that the demand for military defense is expected to improve as the 14th Five-Year Plan approaches its conclusion, potentially leading to a turning point in the company's performance [10][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 5.219 billion yuan, with a significant decline in net profit to 970 million yuan [6][10]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 908 million yuan and a net profit of 58.51 million yuan, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to the previous year [7][10]. - The gross margin for 2024 was reported at 49.7%, down 9.64 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 18.6%, down 15.85 percentage points [8][10]. Business Outlook - The company aims for a revenue target of 5.7 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 9.22% year-on-year, with a profit target of 1.145 billion yuan, up 3.06% [11][12]. - New orders in the high-tech electronics sector are expected to continue growing, supporting the outlook for improved military demand [11][12]. - The report anticipates that the military electronics component industry will see a recovery as demand from downstream customers increases [10][11]. Valuation and Forecast - The forecast for 2025 to 2027 includes projected revenues of 6.004 billion yuan, 7.267 billion yuan, and 8.223 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 1.169 billion yuan, 1.513 billion yuan, and 1.831 billion yuan [12][13]. - The report provides a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio forecast of 22.95X for 2025, decreasing to 14.66X by 2027, indicating a potential for valuation improvement as earnings recover [12][13].

十四五收官国防需求有望向好，业绩拐点 有望出现 ——振华科技(000733)2024 年报&2025Q1 点评 证券研究报告-年报点评 买入(首次) 其他军工Ⅱ 分析师：刘智 登记编码：S0730520110001 liuzhi@ccnew.com021-50586775 -25% -15% -4% 6% 17% 27% 37% 48% 2024.05 2024.09 2025.01 2025.05 振华科技 沪深300 资料来源：中原证券研究所，聚源 相关报告 联系人：李智 市场数据(2025-05-14) | 收盘价(元) | 48.43 | | --- | --- | | 一年内最高/最低(元) | 64.07/32.59 | | 沪深 300 指数 | 3,943.21 | | 市净率(倍) | 1.81 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 268.19 | | 基础数据(2025-03-31) | | 每股净资产(元) 26.72 每股经营现金流(元) -0.05 毛利率(%) 42.49 净资产收益率_摊薄(%) 0.40 资产负债率(%) 18.02 总股本/流通股(万股) 55,416.94/55, ...

Core Insights - The newly constructed Yuxia High-Speed Railway from Chongqing East to Qianjiang has officially entered the trial operation phase and is expected to open in the first half of this year, marking it as the first high-speed rail line to be inaugurated this year [1][2] - In the first quarter of this year, national railway investment reached 131.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, surpassing the growth rate of national fixed asset investment by 0.9 percentage points, indicating a strong push in major infrastructure projects as the "14th Five-Year Plan" approaches its conclusion [1][8] - A total of at least 14 high-speed rail projects are anticipated to be operational within the year, collectively spanning nearly 3,000 kilometers, with significant contributions from provinces like Liaoning and Guizhou achieving the "city-to-city high-speed rail" goal [1][2][11] Investment and Economic Impact - The railway investment growth rate is higher than the national fixed asset investment growth rate, making it a crucial driver for economic growth [8][19] - From 2020 to 2024, the new railway lines put into operation are projected to reach 4,933 kilometers, with high-speed rail accounting for 2,521 kilometers in 2020 and gradually decreasing in subsequent years [8][11] - The completion of 14 high-speed rail projects this year is expected to significantly increase the newly operational high-speed rail mileage compared to last year [11][19] Regional Development and Connectivity - The current high-speed rail construction wave emphasizes regional coordination and network enhancement, with projects like the Yangtze River High-Speed Railway strengthening the economic belt and promoting a new development pattern [12][16] - The completion of the Xiyan High-Speed Railway will end the history of Fushun not having high-speed rail, making Liaoning the first province to achieve "city-to-city high-speed rail" status this year [17][18] - The "city-to-city high-speed rail" initiative is expected to accelerate the flow of resources and talent to underdeveloped areas, enhancing local economies and tourism [18] Future Outlook - The National Railway Group plans to implement a strong network and chain action to scientifically and orderly advance railway planning and construction, ensuring the completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" goals [22] - Major provinces like Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shandong, and others are actively planning significant investments in transportation infrastructure, with projected investments reaching billions of yuan [21][22] - The opening of high-speed rail lines is anticipated to have a substantial impact on local economies, although past issues such as remote stations and insufficient passenger flow need to be addressed for sustainable development [22]

Group 1 - The military industry sector has shown strong performance recently, with notable stocks like AVIC Chengfei experiencing multiple trading halts and a 20% limit up [1][4] - As of the end of Q1 this year, 22 funds held shares in AVIC Chengfei, with 17 of them being major shareholders, indicating significant institutional interest [2][4] - The military sector's growth is driven by three main factors: the push to complete the 14th Five-Year Plan, the centenary of the military, and the trend towards self-sufficiency in domestic production [2][10] Group 2 - The military sector's recent surge has been attributed to a 6.33% increase in the industry, making it the top performer among all sectors, with specific sub-sectors like ground equipment and military electronics seeing gains of 8.0% and 7.4% respectively [2][4] - Fund managers have capitalized on this trend, with significant increases in holdings in military-related ETFs, reflecting a growing preference for this sector among investors [8] - Analysts suggest that the military sector's fundamentals are expected to improve, with a potential increase in military spending as a percentage of GDP, which currently stands below 1.5% [9][10] Group 3 - The recent performance of military stocks has sparked discussions among analysts regarding future trends, with expectations of continued demand driven by geopolitical tensions and domestic defense needs [9][11] - Long-term prospects for the military sector are viewed positively, with potential growth in areas such as commercial aerospace and military trade, which could significantly expand the market [10][11] - The military industry is anticipated to undergo a valuation restructuring, benefiting from improved asset quality and larger business scales, leading to higher market premiums [10]

今日，军工板块继续活跃，军工ETF（512660）涨超3.8%，盘中交投火热，开盘20分钟成交额超 4.7亿元。 注：指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化 而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金 业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨 慎。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 基本面上，军工板块25年一季度的毛利率和净利率已实现触底反弹，国际国内形势或支持全年业绩 改善。当前国内正处于"十四五"的收官之年，此前积压的国防建设任务需要完成，后续2027年建军百年 及2035年国防现代化等中长期目标，未来需求有望得到释放。此外，我国军费占GDP比重不足1.5%， 低于世界主要军事大国的平均水平，国防支出仍有较大增 ...