证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 08 月 25 日 江波龙（301308.SZ） 25Q2 扣非净利润环比+215.9%，看好存储价格回暖+企业级存储订单持续放量 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 10,125 | 17,464 | 21,830 | 26,195 | 30,125 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 21.6 | 72.5 | 25.0 | 20.0 | 15.0 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | -828 | 499 | 986 | 1,617 | 2,012 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -1237.1 | 160.2 | 97.7 | 64.0 | 24.4 | | ROE（%） | -13.0 | 7.3 | 12.6 | 17.2 | 17.6 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | -1.97 | 1.19 | 2.35 | 3.86 | 4.80 | | P/E（倍） | -48.9 | 81.2 | ...

近期港股科技板块热度持续攀升，资金布局信号尤为鲜明。8月15日，南向资金单日净买入港股达 358.76亿港元，不仅刷新互联互通机制启动（2014年11月17日）以来的单日净流入纪录，更成为2025年 第四次单日净流入破纪录的标志性事件。值得关注的是，当日沪深两市港股通净买入前五的个股均为科 技板块核心成分股，直观反映出内地资金对港股科技标的的强烈配置需求，板块景气度与市场关注度同 步升温。相关板块配置机会可持续关注，港股通恒生科技ETF（520840），跟踪恒生港股通科技主题指 数（HSSCITI），深度覆盖与AI高度相关的港股核心标的。 政策与产业共振，科技板块获全方位支撑 当前科技板块的强势表现，离不开政策与产业的双重驱动。从政策端看，多层次、全方位的科技金融支 持体系已逐步成型：国家金融监督管理总局聚焦科技金融产品与服务创新，研究制定科技保险政策以强 化风险补偿；上海针对性推出低空经济、人形机器人等前沿领域的定制化保险服务，推动产业链保险模 式突破；湖北以武汉科技金融中心为支点，重塑政策体系并开展改革试点；央行、科技部等部门则分别 从金融科技发展规划、粤港澳大湾区科创协同等维度发力，激活数据要素、优化科 ...

Industry Overview - The Chinese third-party IDC industry is experiencing steady growth in scale but a slowdown in growth rate, with the market size expected to reach 277.3 billion RMB in 2024 and 318 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 26.0% over the past five years [2][13] - The total number of operational data center racks exceeds 9 million, with a total computing power of 280 EFLOPS, of which intelligent computing accounts for 90 EFLOPS, representing 32% of the total [2][13] Financial Performance - Revenue for the industry continues to grow but at a slower pace, with total revenue of 42.782 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of only 2.7% [3][29] - The overall gross profit margin shows a U-shaped trend, recovering to 25.4% in 2024, with leading companies like Runze Technology achieving a gross margin of 48.9%, comparable to international leader Equinix [3][39] - The industry has turned from loss to profit, with an average net profit of 720 million RMB in 2024, although some companies face asset impairment risks due to increased operational costs and market adjustments [3][44] Customer Concentration and Risks - High customer concentration is a common phenomenon, with top clients like Runze Technology and Data Port accounting for over 80% of sales, which stabilizes revenue but poses cash flow and credit risks [3] - The industry maintains a stable debt-to-asset ratio, which was 59.8% in 2024, with an accelerated transition towards asset securitization [3] Market Dynamics - The capital market is showing signs of recovery, with the enterprise value multiple rebounding to 18.7 and a capital return rate of 12.6% in 2024 [3] - The intelligent computing center is identified as a key development direction, with nearly 550 operational, under-construction, and planned projects nationwide, primarily concentrated in the eastern region [3] Future Outlook - The industry is expected to evolve towards a comprehensive intelligent computing ecosystem and a diversified inclusive computing power system, driven by policy and technological advancements [3][22]

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on the market-oriented reform of data elements, positioning data elements as a core direction for strategic transformation, and achieving phased results in data resourceization, assetization, and capitalization [2]. Group 1: Data Element Strategy - The company is leveraging its self-developed Blu-ray storage technology to create integrated storage solutions, promoting efficient and green data storage, and supporting the national "East Data West Computing" strategy [2]. - The company is actively responding to the national call for data element market construction, focusing on building a trusted data space and developing benchmark applications in sectors such as healthcare, cultural heritage, and intelligent driving [2]. - A comprehensive service system covering data authorization consulting, compliance assessment, asset registration, accounting, and value evaluation has been established to support the value realization of data elements [2]. Group 2: Industry Empowerment - The company is concentrating on three major fields: transportation, healthcare, and culture, utilizing its 20 years of experience in transportation services to build a trusted data space for smart travel, logistics optimization, and traffic governance [4]. - In the healthcare sector, the company aims to solve data storage challenges, promote data circulation and sharing, and assist in cost control for medical insurance [4]. - The company is developing a traceable and tradable cultural data resource library and a digital cultural consumption platform to enhance the cultural sector [4]. Group 3: Market Activity - As of August 19, 2025, the company's stock closed at 23.79 yuan, with a slight increase of 0.13%, a turnover rate of 3.87%, a trading volume of 270,200 shares, and a transaction amount of 645 million yuan [1]. - On the same day, the net inflow of main funds was 18.96 million yuan, while speculative funds and retail investors experienced net outflows of 7.15 million yuan and 11.81 million yuan, respectively [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 33.14 [6][4]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 811 million in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.13%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 85 million, up 20.37%, slightly exceeding previous expectations [1]. - The growth is primarily driven by the acceleration of the domestic AI industry, which has enhanced demand and improved the operational efficiency of the company's data centers [1][2]. - The report anticipates that the ongoing expansion of AI demand will continue to create new growth opportunities for the data center industry, benefiting the company as a leading player in the sector [2][4]. Summary by Sections Business Development - The company is actively expanding its business scale, having established 35 data centers across key regions such as Ulaanqab, Zhangbei, and Guangdong [2]. - The construction of key projects, including the Langfang project, is progressing as planned, which will strengthen the company's computing power supply capabilities in core areas [2]. Financial Performance - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 28.99%, a slight decrease of 0.39 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to increased depreciation expenses from new projects [3]. - The company has effectively controlled its expenses, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios showing favorable trends [3]. Profitability Forecast - The report projects the company's EBITDA for 2025 to be RMB 1.066 billion, with expected growth continuing through 2027 [4][9]. - The target valuation is based on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 23 times for 2025, reflecting the positive industry outlook driven by AI demand [4][19].

Group 1 - The number of internet users in China has reached 1.123 billion, with an internet penetration rate of 79.7% [1] - Digital services have been increasingly integrated into various aspects of daily life, enhancing user experience and accessibility [1][2] - The development of 5G networks and rural e-commerce has transformed mobile phones into essential tools for farmers, contributing to income growth [1] Group 2 - Digital technology is driving innovation in social governance, such as the "smart elderly care" initiatives in cities like Shanghai [2] - Public services have become more accessible and equitable, with online processes reducing the need for multiple department visits for newborn registration [2] - The focus of digital services is shifting from mere availability to usability and user satisfaction, emphasizing the importance of improving people's lives [2]

Group 1 - The number of internet users in China has reached 1.123 billion, with an internet penetration rate of 79.7% [1] - Digital services have rapidly integrated into various aspects of daily life, enhancing experiences in sectors like cultural tourism through technologies such as VR [1] - The development of 5G networks and rural e-commerce has transformed mobile phones into essential tools for farmers, contributing to income growth [1] Group 2 - Digital services are innovating social governance models, such as the "smart elderly care" initiatives in cities like Shanghai, which enhance community resilience [2] - Digital technology has significantly improved the accessibility and equity of public services, streamlining processes for new parents through cross-departmental data sharing [2] - The focus of digital service development is shifting from mere availability to usability and user satisfaction, emphasizing the importance of improving people's lives [2]

Core Insights - The relational database industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" which emphasizes digital development and the construction of a digital China [1][8] - The market size of China's relational database industry is projected to reach 29.98 billion yuan (approximately 4.21 billion USD) in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 12.0% [8][10] - The public cloud has become the primary deployment method for relational databases, with the public cloud relational database market expected to reach 19.51 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 65.1% of the market share [10][18] Market Overview - The overall database market in China is expected to reach 59.616 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 14% year-on-year [6][8] - The domestic relational database market is characterized by a diverse range of participants, including traditional vendors, startups, cloud providers, and cross-industry players, leading to intense competition [18][19] - The market concentration is increasing, with the top five players in the public cloud relational database market expected to hold nearly 85% of the market share by the second half of 2024 [18][19] Product Landscape - As of June 2025, there are 164 database products in China, with 96 being relational databases, representing 58.5% of the total [12][14] - The global database product landscape shows a predominance of non-relational and hybrid databases, while China maintains a focus on relational databases [12][14] Competitive Landscape - Major players in the public cloud relational database market include Alibaba Cloud and Tencent Cloud, which dominate the market [18][19] - In the on-premises relational database market, local companies like Huawei, Dameng, and Tencent compete with international firms such as Oracle, Microsoft, and SAP [18][19] Technological Trends - The relational database market in China is expected to exceed 75 billion yuan by 2029, driven by software localization, rapid AI application development, and the growth of the digital economy [21] - Key technological trends include the deepening of cloud-native databases and the integration of vector engines and multimodal data management [21]

Core Points - The Qingdao International Bureau project has reached a significant milestone with the completion of its main structure, marking a phase victory in construction [1] - The project, covering an area of approximately 24,500 square meters, is being developed by China Unicom and is expected to play a crucial role in international communication [3] - The project team has faced various challenges, including complex geological conditions and tight schedules, but has successfully ensured progress through optimized construction plans and increased resource allocation [3] - The project aims to enhance China's international communication capabilities and contribute to the construction of a digital Silk Road, supporting the integration of Shandong's new industrialization [5] Project Details - The project is located in Laoshan District, Qingdao, and is a joint effort between China Unicom, Zhongxun Post and Telecommunications Consulting Design Institute, and China Railway Construction Engineering Group [3] - The construction team has adhered to principles of safety and quality, achieving zero accidents during the construction process [3] - Future work includes interior and exterior decoration and electromechanical equipment installation, with the goal of completing civil engineering by the end of this year and aiming for operational delivery by 2026 [5]

Group 1 - The internet penetration rate in China has reached 79.7%, with the number of internet users totaling 1.123 billion [4][6][3] - China's computing power ranks second globally, with a total scale expected to grow significantly by 2025 [7][6] - The number of 5G base stations in China has reached 4.55 million, and the number of gigabit broadband users has reached 226 million [7][6] Group 2 - China has built over 10,000 smart factories, covering more than 80% of major manufacturing sectors, with smart home and wearable technology becoming new consumer trends [12][6] - The number of online courses (MOOCs) and their application scale in China ranks first globally, indicating a robust development in smart education [19][6] Group 3 - By 2024, China's data production volume is expected to reach 41.06 ZB, accounting for 26.67% of the global total, with per capita data production being 2.2 times that of the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [23][6] - The number of data circulation node cities has reached 25, including major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, with plans to expand to around 50 cities by the end of the year [25][6]