郑栅洁表示，做好下半年经济工作，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快 构建新发展格局，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，统筹高质量发展和高水平安全，保持政策连 续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，有力促进国内国际双循环， 统筹推动物价水平合理回升、社会就业大局稳定与经济增长，稳住经济基本盘，努力完成全年经济社会 发展目标任务。 围绕下半年经济工作，报告指出，实施好党中央部署的各项政策措施，不断释放内需潜力，进一步推动 科技创新和产业创新深度融合，坚定不移深化改革扩大开放，持续用力防范化解重点领域风险，全面推 进区域协调发展和城乡融合发展，以碳排放双控全面转型推动绿色低碳发展，多措并举保障改善民生， 加强重点领域安全能力建设。 在实施好党中央部署的各项政策措施方面，报告指出，加快落实中央经济工作会议等各项部署，加快稳 就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动相关举措落地见效。落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的 货币政策，充分释放政策效应。深入评估政策实施情况，根据评估结果进一步优化政策、细化措施、强 化实施，增强政策针对性有效性。常态化开展政策预研储备，不断完 ...

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of gathering public opinions for the "14th Five-Year Plan" to enhance its scientific, strategic, and operational aspects [1] - The meeting highlighted the need for effective flood prevention measures and risk management to ensure public safety following recent disasters [1] - The meeting discussed the necessity of improving urban living conditions and promoting technological and industrial innovation to better align with national development goals [1] Group 2 - The meeting focused on addressing corruption and misconduct in areas of public concern, particularly in educational materials and school uniforms [2] - The meeting called for strengthening supervision and accountability among party members to enhance public welfare and development [2] Group 3 - The meeting reviewed the current economic situation and stressed the need for extraordinary measures to stabilize businesses, employment, and market expectations [3] - The meeting outlined strategies to boost consumer spending and support key demographics such as graduates and veterans in finding employment [3] - The meeting emphasized the importance of risk prevention and maintaining a focus on public welfare amidst economic challenges [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The hot-rolled coil futures price is weakly operating under the influence of tariff disturbances and the recovery of apparent demand. The macro environment has both domestic positive signals and overseas uncertainties. The supply and demand situation shows that production is increasing, demand is resilient, and inventory is decreasing. Cost factors are mixed, with iron ore being relatively resistant to decline and coke having a second round of price increases. Technically, the HC2510 contract is under pressure. The recommended strategy is to conduct range trading on the hot-rolled coil 2510 contract, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: As of April 30, the closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3204 yuan/ton (+0), and the spot price of Hangzhou Lianggang hot-rolled coil was 3260 yuan/ton (+0). The production of hot-rolled coils continued to increase to 317.5 (+3.1) million tons. Terminal demand was resilient, with the apparent demand in this period at 324.36 (+0.2) million tons (year - on - year +0.89). The total inventory decreased for eight consecutive weeks to 367.69 (-6.86) million tons (year - on - year -42.3). The steel mill profitability rate was 57.58%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points from last week and 6.93 percentage points from last year [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Overseas, the US is negotiating customized agreements with 15 - 18 "important trading partners", and one of the first agreements may be with India. Domestically, the National Development and Reform Commission is confident in achieving this year's economic and social development goals. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly production of hot-rolled coils continued to increase, the capacity utilization rate remained above 80%, inventories in factories and society declined, and the apparent demand continued to rise. In terms of cost, iron ore was relatively resistant to decline, port inventories increased, and iron water production also increased; coal mines were in normal production, coke enterprises' production capacity utilization rate increased, and coke prices had a second round of increases. Technically, the HC2510 contract's daily K - line was under pressure from multiple moving averages, and the MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were operating below the 0 - axis. The recommended strategy is range trading for the hot-rolled coil 2510 contract [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: This week, the HC2510 contract fluctuated weakly and was weaker than the HC2601 contract. On the 30th, the price difference was -28 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/ton [14]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Positions**: On April 30, the hot-rolled coil warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 334,016 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19,185 tons. The net long position of the top 20 in the hot-rolled coil futures contract was 118,068 lots, a decrease of 18,409 lots from the previous week [20]. - **Spot Price**: On April 30, the spot price of Shanghai hot-rolled coil 5.75mm Q235 was 3260 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3331 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of hot-rolled coils was similar to the futures price, and on the 30th, the basis was 56 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton [27]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Raw Material Prices**: On April 30, the price of 61% Australian Macfarlane powder ore at Qingdao Port was 805 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - class metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1540 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton [31]. - **Shipping and Arrival Volumes**: From April 21 - 27, 2025, the total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 27.584 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.207 million tons. The total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 26.796 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.304 million tons [35]. - **Inventory**: This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 147.81 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.31 million tons. The coke inventory of coking plants increased, and the capacity utilization rate was 75.27%, an increase of 1.86 percentage points [40][44]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: In March 2025, the crude steel output was 92.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. From January to March, the cumulative export of steel was 27.429 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. On April 25, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.77 percentage points. The total inventory of hot-rolled coils decreased to 367.69 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.86 million tons [48][51][55]. - **Demand Side**: From January to March 2025, the total output of the Chinese automobile industry was 7.561 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.5%; the total sales were 7.47 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.2%. The production of household appliances also increased year - on - year [58].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that multiple government departments are confident in achieving this year's economic and social development goals through various policy measures aimed at stabilizing employment and promoting high-quality development [1][3]. - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has outlined several measures to support employment, stabilize foreign trade, promote consumption, expand effective investment, and create a stable development environment [3]. - Specific initiatives in employment support include encouraging companies to maintain jobs, enhancing vocational training, and improving public employment services [3]. Group 2 - The NDRC emphasizes the importance of promoting consumption through expanding service consumption, strengthening care for the elderly, and boosting automobile consumption [3]. - The Chinese financial market is currently stable, with the RMB exchange rate against the USD around 7.3, indicating a controlled currency environment despite fluctuations in the US debt and dollar exchange rates [5]. - The NDRC has assured that China's grain and energy supply will remain stable, with a focus on domestic production and minimal reliance on imports from the US, particularly in the context of the US imposing tariffs [7][8]. Group 3 - China's grain security strategy emphasizes self-sufficiency, with a projected grain output of 1.4 trillion jin in 2024, ensuring food security well above the international standard [7]. - The energy supply system in China is robust, with an energy self-sufficiency rate of over 80%, and a diverse energy mix that includes coal, oil, gas, nuclear, and renewable sources [8]. - The NDRC plans to continue implementing the national food security strategy and enhance energy security measures to ensure stable domestic supply and market operations [8].