Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - In the context of China's mild economic recovery and the increasing expectation of global liquidity easing, the policy resonance of the Fed's December interest rate meeting and China's Central Economic Work Conference will affect the A-share market rhythm in December and lay the foundation for the cross-year market and investment themes in 2026. Before the official implementation of the policies of the two meetings, funds may be more cautious, and the stock market is expected to remain volatile, with funds favoring defensive allocations. Once the meeting contents are clear and the positive policy signals resonate with the Fed's interest rate cuts, market risk appetite is expected to rise again [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts decreased compared to the day before, with declines ranging from -0.25% to -0.30%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract varied, and the open interest of all contracts increased [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts also decreased, with declines ranging from -0.35% to -0.41%. The trading volume and open interest showed different trends, and the open interest of most contracts increased [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts dropped, with declines from -0.35% to -0.42%. The trading volume and open interest changed, and the open interest of all contracts increased [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts decreased, with declines ranging from -0.53% to -0.58%. The trading volume and open interest varied, and the open interest of all contracts increased [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts had different values compared to the previous values, with some spreads widening and some remaining the same [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Stock Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes decreased compared to the day before, with declines of -0.51%, -0.52%, -0.62%, and -0.89% respectively. The trading volume and total trading amount also changed [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Different industries in the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 industry index showed different trends, with the raw materials industry rising by 0.85% and other industries such as energy, industry, and optional consumption showing declines [1] 3. Basis between Futures and Spot - The basis between futures and spot of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all decreased compared to the day before, indicating changes in the relationship between futures and spot prices [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index all decreased, with declines ranging from -0.51% to -1.12% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index decreased by -1.28%, the DAX Index decreased by -0.07%, the S&P 500 Index increased by 0.30%, and the Nikkei 225 Index remained unchanged [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - The US ADP employment data in November showed a decrease of 32,000 private - sector jobs, the largest decline since March 2023, far below market expectations. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is close to 90% [2] - Chinese Premier Li Qiang pointed out that new - type urbanization is an important carrier for expanding domestic demand, promoting industrial upgrading, and strengthening the domestic economic cycle. Relevant measures should be taken in urbanization planning, population citizenization, urban renewal, and breaking the urban - rural dual structure [2] - The US President signed a law regarding US - Taiwan relations, and China urged the US to stop official exchanges with Taiwan and not send wrong signals to "Taiwan independence" forces [2] - The State Council approved the "Yangtze River Delta Territorial Space Planning (2023 - 2035)", which aims to support Shanghai in playing a leading role and promote the construction of a world - class city cluster [2] - From January to November this year, consumer goods trade - in drove related commodity sales of over 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people. From January to October, China's service trade imports and exports totaled 6.58443 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%, and the service trade deficit decreased by 269.39 billion yuan year - on - year [2] 6. Industry Information - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism and the Civil Aviation Administration issued an action plan for the integrated development of culture, tourism, and civil aviation, including 15 specific measures [2] - As the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan of national subsidy funds is further consumed, more than 20 cities across the country have suspended or adjusted automobile trade - in subsidy activities [2] - In November, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.263 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. Among them, the retail sales of the new - energy vehicle market were 1.354 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the penetration rate of the new - energy vehicle market was 59.8% [2] - In November, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Energy logistics demand slowed down, while logistics demand in the industrial manufacturing and consumer sectors showed positive and stable trends respectively [2]

最近，北京、天津、河北、浙江等多个省市密集发布"十五五"规划建议。 从各地规划建议内容来看，均提出要加快构建房地产发展新模式，优化保障性住房供给，建设安全舒适绿色智慧的"好房子"。在此基础上，各地细则又有 不同，但整体与全国"十五五"规划建议基本一致，这将是接下来五年着力推进的重点工作。 自二十届四中全会定调"推动房地产高质量发展"、中央"十五五"规划建议明确高质量发展的六大重点任务，行业的转型路线图正从中央的宏大叙事，加速 向地方的精细化落地转变。 高质量发展仍是核心关键词 各地陆续发布的"十五五"规划建议，是对中央"构建房地产新发展模式"战略的坚决落实，河北、内蒙古、福建、黑龙江等省份明确指出"推动房地产高质 量发展。" 从具体内容来看，围绕以下四大主要关键词展开： 加快构建房地产发展新模式 优化保障性住房供给 建设安全舒适绿色智慧的"好房子" 建立房屋全生命周期安全管理制度 地方规划共同描绘的，是一个供需平衡、风险可控、注重品质的行业新发展模式。 其核心逻辑在于，通过 "市场+保障" 的双轨供应体系，聚焦 "好房子" 建设，并强化 "全生命周期管理"，推动行业从"开发"向"运营与服务"延伸，最终实 现高 ...

加快构建房地产发展新模式将有哪些发力点？住房城乡建设部政策研究中心副主任浦湛表示，完善相关基础制度，提升"人、房、地、钱"四 类要素资源的配置效果，是推动新模式落地的关键举措之一。立足于城市内涵式发展和城市更新大场景，房地产要形成产品与服务优质、供应体 系健全、要素配置合理、监管制度规范、行业经营稳健的高质量发展格局。 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出，推动房地产高质量发展。加快构建房地产发展新模式，完善商品 房开发、融资、销售等基础制度。 浙江工业大学中国住房和房地产研究院院长虞晓芬说，适应我国房地产市场供求关系发生重大变化的新形势，加快构建房地产发展新模式， 是促进房地产市场平稳健康发展的治本之策。 《建议》提出"优化保障性住房供给""因城施策增加改善性住房供给""建设安全舒适绿色智慧的'好房子'，实施房屋品质提升工程和物业服务 质量提升行动"等举措。 新华社音视频部制作 ...

其中提到，推动房地产高质量发展。加快构建房地产发展新模式，完善房地产开发、融资、销售等制度 机制。优化保障性住房供给，满足城镇工薪群体和各类困难家庭基本住房需求。因城施策增加改善性住 房供给。建设安全舒适绿色智慧的"好房子"，实施房屋品质提升工程和物业服务质量提升行动。加强房 屋全生命周期安全管理，支持老旧住房自主更新、原拆原建。 加强房屋全生命周期安全管理，支持老旧住房自主更新、原拆原建。 11月20日，福建省发布《中共福建省委关于制定福建省国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建 议》。 ...

加快发展保障性住房，满足城镇工薪群体和各类困难家庭基本住房需求，因城施策增加改善性住房供给 近日，黑龙江省人民政府发布《中共黑龙江省委关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建 议》。 其中指出，推动房地产高质量发展。加快构建房地产发展新模式，完善商品房开发、融资、销售等基础 制度。优化住房供应结构，加快发展保障性住房，满足城镇工薪群体和各类困难家庭基本住房需求，因 城施策增加改善性住房供给。适应高寒地区特点，建设安全舒适绿色智慧的"好房子"，实施房屋品质提 升工程和物业服务质量提升行动，加强房屋使用全生命周期安全管理。 ...

鼓励社会资本参与盘活存量资产。建立房屋全生命周期安全管理制度。 11月17日，宁夏回族自治区发布《中共宁夏回族自治区委员会关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五 年规划的建议》。 其中提到，实现更高水平住有所居。推动房地产高质量发展，加快构建房地产发展新模式，完善商品房 开发、融资、销售等基础制度。因城施策优化房地产市场调控政策，促进房地产市场持续健康发展。加 大保障性住房供给力度，更好满足城镇工薪群体和各类困难家庭基本住房需求。有效增加改善性住房供 给。统筹"好房子"建设和老房子改造，实施房屋品质提升工程和物业服务质量提升行动。开展停工房屋 建设项目和闲置房屋资产处置化解攻坚行动，鼓励社会资本参与盘活存量资产。建立房屋全生命周期安 全管理制度。 ...

其中指出，推动房地产高质量发展。加快构建房地产开发新模式。优化保障性住房供给，满足城镇工薪 群体和各类困难家庭基本住房需求。因城施策增加改善性住房供给。建设安全舒适绿色智慧的"好房 子"，实施房屋品质提升工程和物业服务质量提升行动。建立房屋全生命周期安全管理制度。 因城施策增加改善性住房供给。 11月14日，内蒙古发布《内蒙古自治区党委关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》。 ...

本报记者 李贝贝 上海报道 随着"十五五"规划建议中房地产高质量发展要求的提出，以及住房和城乡建设部相关部署的推进，四 川、福建、浙江等全国多地于近期加紧研究谋划现房销售支持政策，有力有序推进现房销售试点，力争 进一步提高现房销售占比。 据国家统计局数据，2024年，商品房现房销售面积约占商品房销售面积的30.84%；今年前9月，商品房 现房销售面积在商品房销售面积中的占比提升至35.4%，现房销售占比持续攀升。 中原地产首席分析师张大伟向《华夏时报》记者强调，现阶段现房销售改革并非对预售制的简单否定， 而是构建"现房为主、预售为辅"的二元体系，从根源上切断烂尾风险传导链。不过，如果实施现房销 售，房企面临的资金压力显著增加，需加大金融支持力度，通过提高开发贷额度、延长期限等措施缓解 转型阵痛。 超30个省市出台政策，多路径推进现房销售 所谓"现房销售"，是指房地产开发企业将已竣工验收合格、具备法定交付条件并可直接办理产权登记的 商品房向市场出售的行为。购房者在交易完成后，即可获得房屋的实际占有和使用权，通常能迅速完成 产权转移。与之相对应的"预售制"，则是指开发企业在项目建设完成前，预先销售尚处于建设阶段的 ...

Demand Outlook - The short-term outlook for China's real estate market indicates continued decline, but the downside potential is limited[2] - Long-term demand for housing is expected to decrease significantly due to factors such as declining marriage and birth rates, urbanization, and the growth of affordable housing and rental markets[2] Population and Housing Demand - China's total population peaked at 1.412 billion in 2022 and is projected to decline to approximately 1.26 billion by 2050, with an aging population exceeding 27%[6] - The primary home-buying demographic (ages 26-35) is expected to shrink from 216 million in 2020 to 167 million by 2025, and further to 126 million by 2050[7] Urbanization and Housing Supply - Urbanization rate increased from 55.5% in 2015 to 67% in 2024, but growth is expected to slow as it approaches 75%[10] - The annual increase in urban population has decreased to 5-8 million, indicating a potential reduction in housing demand[10] Marriage and Birth Rates - The crude marriage rate has dropped from 9.92‰ in 2013 to 4.30‰ in 2024, while the total fertility rate has fallen from 1.54 in 2015 to approximately 1.00 in 2024, significantly below the replacement level of 2.10[13][14] Economic Factors - The average disposable income for urban residents in 2024 is projected at 54,200 yuan, with a real growth rate of 4.4%, supporting housing demand despite a declining market[16] - The rental market is expected to grow, with rental housing currently accounting for 7.8% of urban housing stock, significantly lower than the 30% average in developed countries[20] Future Housing Demand Projections - By 2050, the estimated housing update demand is approximately 689,000 units, with market-driven solutions accounting for about 70% of this demand[31] - The total demand for commodity housing is projected to decrease by nearly half compared to 2024 levels, indicating a significant contraction in the market[31] Market Dynamics - The real estate market is experiencing structural oversupply, particularly in lower-tier cities, with vacancy rates exceeding 20% in some areas[21] - The competition among real estate companies is shifting from scale and speed to product quality and operational capabilities, necessitating a focus on customer needs and sustainable development[2][38]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Real Estate Stronger than the Market (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the sales decline in October and November is expanding due to the high base from the previous year, with a need for macro policies to stabilize residents' income expectations and enhance purchasing power. The report emphasizes the importance of improving residents' willingness and ability to buy homes to stabilize the housing market [2][3] - The report suggests that the key to the housing market's stabilization lies in the improvement of residents' purchasing power and willingness to buy homes, which will ultimately lead to an improvement in supply-demand dynamics [2] - The report highlights the necessity of reducing mortgage rates through measures such as interest rate cuts or government subsidies to enhance the attractiveness of home purchases [2] Summary by Sections Policy - The report discusses the promotion of high-quality development in real estate, emphasizing the "Good House" initiative during the 14th Five-Year Plan, which aims to improve housing standards, design, materials, construction, and maintenance [3][4][5] Financing - The report notes a year-on-year decrease in long-term loans to residents, with a significant drop in new long-term loans in October 2025, amounting to a reduction of 700 billion yuan, which is 1.8 trillion yuan less than the previous year [10][11] Real Estate Market - The report states that the average daily transaction volume of new homes in 50 key cities fell by 31.4% year-on-year in October and by 46.3% in November, while the second-hand housing market also saw significant declines [19][25] - The report indicates that the average land supply in 100 cities was 1.3 million square meters in October, a decrease of 17.2% month-on-month, while the average transaction area increased by 3.4% [26] Real Estate Companies - The report highlights that the sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies fell by 40.6% year-on-year in October, with a cumulative decline of 16.7% for the first ten months of 2025 [34][38] - The report mentions that the average land acquisition ratio for the top 50 real estate companies increased, indicating a rise in land acquisition activity despite the overall sales decline [38] Market Performance - The report notes that the real estate sector underperformed the broader market, with a decline of 2.37% in October, while the current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for the real estate sector is 62.32, significantly higher than the 13.92 for the broader market [42]