比特币周三携手美股创下历史新高，显示投资者在全球风险资产狂欢中进一步加码押注。 这一同步走势凸显了投机性市场领域与主流股市在同一乐观情绪的推动下齐头并进。本周公布的美国通 胀数据符合预期，加强了市场对于美联储9月降息的押注。金融环境的放松将鼓励资金从蓝筹股流向波 动性更高的加密货币。 "加密货币与股市呈正相关关系，其中以太币与股市的关联性强于比特币"，Ergonia研究主管Chris Newhouse表示，"整体市场情绪看起来积极。" 来源：金融界 比特币在周三纽约晚间交易时段升破12.35万美元，超过了7月14日创下的123,205.12美元的历史纪录。 标普500指数周三收盘连续第二个交易日创下新高，延续了整个夏季的强劲走势。 比特币持续上涨，得益于特朗普政府为加密资产营造的有利立法环境。并且Strategy等公司"囤积比特 币"的策略日益流行，这一企业策略近期也蔓延到以太币等其他加密货币，带动数字资产整体上涨。 ...

Industry Comparison - The industry views cryptocurrency platforms offering US stock trading as analogous to informal, unreliable services like buying lottery tickets through unauthorized channels [1]

招商宏观研报称，海8月7日特朗普提名斯蒂芬·米兰出任美联储理事，并将在近期提名另一名理事，美 联储内部似有MAGA化的趋势，为后续降息打开路径。近期美联储官员发言明显偏鸽，若下周7月CPI 同比符合市场预期，则美联储有望在8月21-23日Jackson Hole全球央行会议给出降息暗示。但目前9月 FOMC降息25BP已被市场充分定价。Q2业绩超预期后，美股需要看到更多的利好才能继续上行，8月动 能或有所衰减。 ...

Product Offering - Meitou Pro offers 50 in-depth stock analysis and tracking videos annually [1] - Meitou Pro provides access to a professional analyst team and a community of over 1,000 members for collaborative discussions [1] - Meitou Pro shares daily investment perspectives, professional data, and trading summaries [1] - Meitou Pro's video library contains over 120 videos and more than 10,000 investment viewpoints [1] Content Focus - The content covers various investment topics, including post-modern cycles, electric vehicle investments, strategies to outperform Wall Street, and the US Treasury bond market [1] - The content also addresses quantitative risk assessment and management [1] - The content includes educational series on options trading, covering introductory concepts, practical demonstrations, and strategies for using traditional stocks in options trading [1] - The content provides insights into investment strategies, such as determining a company's intrinsic value, risk mitigation, wealth accumulation, dividend stock investing, and the utility of technical analysis [1] - The content explores investment psychology, aiming to help investors develop a rational and unemotional approach [1] Channels and Contact - Meitou team operates other YouTube channels, including "Meitou Kan Xinwen" and "Meitou Jiang Qiquan" [1] - Business cooperation can be reached via meitouinvesting@gmailcom [1] - The WeChat official account is Meitou_Investing, and the WeChat ID is meitoujiangmeigu [1]

Crypto Market Opportunities - Crypto market opportunities stem from high-leverage volatility, unregulated on-chain transactions, Wall Street investment in major cryptocurrencies, and Trump's endorsement of dollar-backed ecosystems [1] - Native altcoins opportunities in the crypto market involve PVP contract trading, Pre TGE projects, new coins, deep market corrections, and manipulation by wealthy entities, shifting the market structure from a football shape to a barbell shape [1] Market Comparison - The report suggests a comparison between the crypto market and the US stock market, highlighting the performance of stocks like Futu Holdings ($FUTU), which increased by 120% from its April bottom, and MP Materials ($MP), which increased by 75% in a month following positive news [1] - Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), with ETF support, are considered outside traditional market influences, with their value significantly impacted by NASDAQ inflows [1] Altcoin Market Indicator - SOL is identified as a potential indicator for the altcoin market [1]

Group 1 - The soybean fund increased by 1.58%, indicating a positive trend in agricultural commodities [1] - The agricultural products fund and the Russell 2000 index ETF rose by 1.01%, reflecting strong performance in small-cap stocks [1] - The US real estate ETF gained 0.94%, suggesting stability in the real estate market [1] Group 2 - The Japanese yen long position increased by 0.71%, indicating a strengthening of the currency [1] - The gold ETF rose by 0.5%, showing continued interest in safe-haven assets [1] - The Dow Jones ETF and emerging markets ETF both saw a maximum increase of 0.5%, reflecting mixed performance in broader markets [1] Group 3 - The S&P 500 ETF, Euro long position, US Treasury 20+ year ETF, and Nasdaq 100 ETF all had a maximum increase of 0.33%, indicating modest gains in major indices [1] - The US Brent oil price fund decreased by 0.13%, suggesting a slight decline in oil prices [1] - The long dollar index fell by 0.36%, indicating a weakening of the dollar [1]

Group 1 - The US stock market saw a significant increase on Monday, with the Dow Jones recovering losses from the previous trading day and the Nasdaq index rising nearly 2% [1] - All three major US stock indices recorded their largest gains since May 27, as investors opted to buy on dips [2] - The Nasdaq Technology ETF rose over 2%, while the Nasdaq 100-related ETFs increased by more than 1.5% [1][2] Group 2 - Employment data fell short of expectations, leading to speculation about a potential interest rate cut in September [2]

Market Overview - Oil prices fell sharply due to OPEC+ decision to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September, leading to a decline in WTI crude oil by 2.47% and ICE Brent crude by 2.15% [5][6] - U.S. stock markets, gold, and cryptocurrencies experienced gains, with major U.S. indices rising over 1%, particularly the Nasdaq which increased by over 1.6% [5][6] Oil Market - WTI crude oil closed at $65.69, down $1.64, while ICE Brent crude oil closed at $68.17, down $1.50 [2][4] - Natural gas futures also saw a decline of nearly 3%, closing at $3.001 [2] Stock Market - The Dow Jones increased by 1.00%, Nasdaq by 1.62%, and S&P 500 by 1.16% [6] - Major tech stocks saw significant gains, with Google up 2.82%, NVIDIA up 2.39%, and Apple up 2.18% [7] Cryptocurrency Market - Ethereum surpassed $3,600, with a 24-hour increase of 4.4%, while Bitcoin rose nearly 1.4% [8][9] - The total liquidation in the cryptocurrency market reached $175 million, with $136 million from short positions [10] Gold Market - Gold prices rose above $3,370 per ounce, reaching a peak of $3,385.45, marking the highest level since July 24 [11] Economic Outlook - Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have increased significantly, with a probability of 85% for a cut in the September meeting [11] - UBS strategists predict a potential decline in U.S. stock markets in August due to worsening economic data, viewing it as a buying opportunity [12]

Economic Overview - The U.S. GDP growth for Q2 was revised up to 3.0%, exceeding expectations of 2.6%, with net exports contributing 5 percentage points[5] - The Atlanta Fed's GDP Now forecast indicates a slight decrease in Q3 GDP growth to 2.1%[3] - The final domestic private purchases growth (consumption + investment) fell by 0.7 percentage points to 1.2%[5] Employment Data - July non-farm payrolls increased by only 74,000, significantly below the expected 104,000, with prior months' data revised down by 258,000[5] - Initial jobless claims decreased by 23,000 to 193,000, better than the expected 211,000, indicating no significant layoffs yet[3] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, primarily due to a drop in labor force participation[5] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The core PCE inflation for June was reported at 2.6%, above the expected 2.5%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[5] - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% during the July FOMC meeting, with a hawkish tone from Powell[6] Market Reactions - U.S. stock indices fell, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones down by 2.4%, 2.2%, and 2.9% respectively[7] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 1% to 98.7, while the euro and yen depreciated by 2.8% and 2.1% respectively[7] Commodity Prices - COMEX gold prices increased by 1.9% to $3,399.8 per ounce, while Brent crude oil rose by 1.8% to $69.7 per barrel[7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the bank maintains a neutral outlook on US stocks, expecting only one rate cut by the end of the year, and has downgraded sovereign and investment-grade corporate bonds to "neutral" [1][2] - The Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, marking the first time since 1993 that two members voted against the decision [1] - The Fed's assessment of the US economy has been downgraded, indicating a slowdown in economic activity during the first half of the year, contrasting with previous statements describing steady expansion [1] Group 2 - The impact of the trade war on US inflation and overall economic activity remains unclear, and with the job market stable, the likelihood of a rate cut in September is low [2] - The bank notes that major central banks are expected to slow their rate-cutting pace, and concerns about fiscal outlook are rising, leading to a downgrade of sovereign and investment-grade corporate bonds to neutral [2] - Despite the recent rise in US stocks supported by strong performance from leading tech companies, valuations are significantly high, and the opportunity for US stocks to outperform other markets in the short to medium term is limited [2]