文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：殷雯卿 （微信 yinwenqing15） 核心观点 美联储货币政策会如何影响新兴市场股市？通过复盘我们将新兴市场股市的外部宏观环境划分为 4 种情景： 1 、全球货币政策切换期（如加息 / 降息尾声或初期），市场对美联储货币政策的鹰 / 鸽预期会成为影响新兴市场股市的关键因素；这一时期新兴市场经济强弱 影响不大。 2 、美联储稳定加息 / 降息时期，市场对货币政策的敏感度降低，新兴市场的经济预期以及新兴市场相比美国的经济预期强弱，是影响新兴市场股市的关键因 素。 3 、全球经济衰退 / 存在衰退预期时，新兴市场均表现偏弱。 4 、全球处于流动性泛滥时期，新兴市场股市通常不差。 9 月降息落地后，未来全球资产所处的宏观环境更有可能是进入货币政策切换期，即降息后经济"空中加油"、经济增长超预期快速改善，美联储降息预期可能会 面临显著回摆，货币政策向鹰派立场切换。可能对新兴市场股市形成下跌压力；类似 2024 年 9-12 月。不过只要美联储货币政策预期不切换至加息，即便降息 预期回摆美股可能仍然偏强。 报告摘 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 美联储降息后，新兴市场股市何去何从？ ——基于四大情景的复盘 我们尝试对 2008-2025 年新兴市场的每一轮上涨/下跌行情分别进行复盘，可 以看到，新兴市场股市的强弱存在四种情景： ① 全球货币政策切换期（如加息/降息尾声或初期），市场对美联储货币政策 的鹰/鸽预期会成为影响新兴市场股市的关键因素；这一时期新兴市场经济强 弱影响不大。 2010 年 5-6 月：美联储 QE1 结束、QE2 未启动，货币政策有收紧预期，MSCI 新兴市场指数与港股快速下跌。 核心结论：美联储货币政策会如何影响新兴市场股市？通过复盘我们将新兴市 场股市的外部宏观环境划分为 4 种情景： 1、全球货币政策切换期（如加息/降息尾声或初期），市场对美联储货币政策的 鹰/鸽预期会成为影响新兴市场股市的关键因素；这一时期新兴市场经济强弱 影响不大。 2、美联储稳定加息/降息时期，市场对货币政策的敏感度降低，新兴市场的经 济预期以及新兴市场相比美国的经济预期强弱，是影响新兴市场股市的关键因 素。 3、全球经济衰退/存在衰退预期时，新兴市场均表现偏弱。 4、全球处于流动性泛滥时期，新兴市场股市通常不差 ...

Group 1 - The macroeconomic data continues to show resilience, with August PPI reading at -2.9%, indicating a marginal improvement in the economy [1] - Financial data is on an upward trend, supporting the real economy and investment environment, which provides significant backing for the domestic capital market [1] - The focus moving forward will be on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decision, which currently has a high probability and is expected to positively impact global risk asset prices [1] Group 2 - The market experienced a rebound last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering short-term moving averages and reaching new highs [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index outperformed, indicating strong market elasticity, while average daily trading volume decreased to approximately 23,000 billion [2] - Market hotspots were primarily in the TMT and upstream raw materials sectors, with technology and small-cap stocks leading in gains [2] - The market is attempting to resume an upward trend after technical consolidation, with major indices recovering previous losses and reaching new highs [2] - However, there are concerns regarding declining trading volume and rapid rotation of market hotspots, suggesting potential market divergence and a focus on structural trends [2]

Market Performance - Major US stock indices closed lower due to weak non-farm employment data, which reinforced expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.48% to 45400.86 points, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.32% to 6481.5 points, and the Nasdaq dropped by 0.03% to 21700.39 points [1] - European indices also closed down, with Germany's DAX down 0.73%, France's CAC40 down 0.31%, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.09% [1] Employment Data - The US added only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below the expected 75,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase for the second consecutive month [3] - Job growth was primarily in the healthcare sector, which added 31,000 jobs, while manufacturing, wholesale trade, and government sectors saw losses of over 10,000 jobs each [3] Gold Market - International gold prices reached a new high, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.92% to $3639.8 per ounce [5] - In August, gold ETFs saw a net inflow of $5.5 billion, mainly from North America ($4.1 billion) and Europe ($1.9 billion), while Asia experienced outflows [5] - The World Gold Council attributed the rise in gold prices to a weaker dollar, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and continued inflows into global gold ETFs [5] Oil Market - US oil prices fell, with the main contract down 2.38% to $61.97 per barrel, and Brent crude down 2.06% to $65.61 per barrel [7][8] - The decline in oil prices is influenced by rising expectations of increased production from OPEC+, as well as concerns over economic recession [8][9] - OPEC+ is considering further increasing oil production to regain market share, having already raised output by approximately 2.5 million barrels per day since April [9]

Market Overview - Major US stock indices collectively declined due to weak non-farm employment data, which reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [1][4] - As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.48% to 45400.86 points, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.32% to 6481.50 points, and the Nasdaq dropped by 0.03% to 21700.39 points [2] Employment Data - The US Labor Department reported that 22,000 jobs were added in August, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase for the second consecutive month [4] - The job growth was primarily in the healthcare sector, while manufacturing, wholesale trade, and government sectors saw significant job losses [4] Gold Market - International gold prices reached a new high, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.92% to $3639.8 per ounce [6] - In August, gold ETFs saw a net inflow of $5.5 billion, mainly from North America and Europe, while Asia experienced outflows [6] Oil Market - Crude oil prices fell significantly, with US oil main contract down 2.38% to $61.97 per barrel and Brent crude down 2.06% to $65.61 per barrel [8] - The decline in oil prices is attributed to rising expectations of increased production from OPEC+ and concerns over economic recession [9]

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets have eased concerns about a global synchronized recession, but the risk of increased tariffs under Trump's administration remains a significant threat to economic stability [1][4][6]. Group 1: Economic Growth Projections - Morgan Stanley revised its global growth forecast for Q4 2023 to 2.6%, up from 2.2% previously, indicating a slight improvement in economic outlook [3]. - The growth expectations for the US and Eurozone have been adjusted from 0.6% to 1.0%, reflecting a less severe impact from tariffs than previously anticipated [4]. - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York predicts that the US economy will slow to a growth rate of 1% by 2025, down from 1.2% in the first half of 2023 [6]. Group 2: Tariff Impacts - The EU's GDP is expected to be adjusted down by approximately 0.5% due to tariffs, with Germany facing an even greater impact of over 0.6% [7]. - Japan's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been lowered from 1.1% to 0.6%, influenced by the recent tariff agreements that reduced auto tariffs from 27.5% to 15% [8]. - China's economy is projected to grow at 4.8% in 2025, a decrease from 5.0% in 2024, largely due to ongoing high tariffs and potential "roundabout exports" facing increased scrutiny [9]. Group 3: Tariff Revenue and Economic Burden - The proportion of tariff revenue to US GDP reached 0.9% in Q2 2023, significantly higher than the historical range of 0.2% to 0.4% since the 1960s [11]. - While increased tariff revenue benefits the US government financially, the burden is likely to be passed on to US businesses and consumers, as well as foreign exporters [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of the U.S. government's decision to impose high tariffs on imports from over 180 countries, marking a critical moment in modern trade history and raising concerns about the stability of the global trade system [1][3]. Trade Policy and Economic Impact - The U.S. has raised tariffs to an average of 15%, with only a few allies like the UK and Japan receiving a lower rate of 10% due to special agreements [1]. - Major trading partners such as China, Mexico, and Canada are excluded from a 90-day grace period, facing immediate tariff impacts [3]. - The U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness, with only 75,000 new jobs added, significantly below the expected 100,000, and previous months' data revised down by a total of 258,000 jobs [3][5]. Economic Forecasts and Predictions - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8% and increased the probability of a U.S. recession from 27% to 40% [7]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that the increase in effective tariffs could reduce U.S. GDP growth from 2.5% in 2024 to 0.5% in 2025 [7]. - A study from Yale indicates that U.S. households may face an additional $2,400 in annual expenses due to tariffs, with clothing prices potentially rising by 38% [7]. Global Reactions and Supply Chain Changes - In response to U.S. tariffs, China has raised tariffs on U.S. goods to 125% and is focusing on internal adjustments [8]. - The European Union is preparing retaliatory tariffs targeting U.S. tech companies and is seeking to strengthen ties with China [8]. - Emerging economies like Cambodia and Vietnam are warned to face severe impacts due to their reliance on the U.S. market [10]. Financial Market Reactions - Following the announcement of tariffs, U.S. stock markets experienced significant declines, with a total market value loss exceeding $1 trillion [13]. - Gold prices surged, while cryptocurrencies also faced substantial drops, indicating a flight to safety among investors [13]. Historical Context and Future Outlook - Economists draw parallels to the 1930s, warning that high tariffs could lead to a repeat of the disastrous trade wars that exacerbated the Great Depression [15][17]. - The article suggests that the current trade policies may signal the end of the golden age of free trade, leading to a more fragmented and regionalized trade order [17].

Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, copper prices experienced significant fluctuations, with LME copper price reaching $9,878 per ton, marking a year-to-date increase of 12.49%, while Shanghai copper futures rose by 8.27% to 79,870 CNY per ton [1] - The U.S. tariff policies under President Trump have caused considerable market disruptions, leading to concerns about a global economic recession, which impacted stock and futures markets [2][3] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8%, with developed economies' growth expectations lowered from 1.9% to 1.4% [3] Supply Analysis - Global copper mine production from January to April 2025 totaled 7.5254 million metric tons, an increase of 2.64% year-on-year, but major copper producers reported a decline in output [8][9] - The anticipated global copper mine increment for 2025 is between 220,000 to 300,000 tons, with significant contributions expected from projects like Oyu Tolgoi and Kamoa-Kakula [11] - Domestic copper concentrate production in China for January to March 2025 reached 427,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.26%, but still below levels from 2022 and 2023 [12] Demand Analysis - In the U.S., new housing starts have declined, while automotive sales remain stable, contributing limited growth to copper consumption [17] - In China, investment in power grid projects increased by 14.59% year-on-year, and the production of new energy vehicles surged by 48.35% [17] - Overall, domestic copper consumption is expected to show resilience, with strong growth in the power grid sector and stable performance in the automotive sector [17] Trade Flow Changes - The U.S. initiated a "232 investigation" into copper imports, leading to significant changes in global copper trade flows, with COMEX and LME markets experiencing increased arbitrage trading [18][19] - Chile's refined copper exports decreased by 11.1% year-on-year, while exports to the U.S. saw a significant increase of 116.11% [19] - As of June 30, 2025, global copper inventories decreased by 20.59% year-on-year, indicating tightening supply conditions [19] Outlook for the Second Half - The copper market is expected to maintain high prices due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies, supply constraints, and resilient demand [20] - If no major risk events occur, copper prices may continue to rise, potentially reaching new highs, although there is a risk of temporary price corrections following the implementation of U.S. tariffs [21]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that since 2020, the net worth of global family offices has been on the rise, with a focus on long-term investment goals and diversification [1] - Family offices are reducing cash holdings and increasing investments in developed market equities, while also raising allocations to private debt to enhance returns and diversify portfolios [1] - Nearly half (48%) of Asia-Pacific family offices plan to increase their allocation to developed market equities, and 40% intend to raise their exposure to emerging market equities [1] Group 2 - The proportion of family offices planning to increase allocations to gold and precious metals has reached a historical high of 21%, up from 10%-16% in the previous years [2] - North America and Western Europe remain the most favored investment destinations, with nearly four-fifths (79%) of global family office assets allocated to these regions [2] - In the Asia-Pacific region, 39% of family offices plan to increase investments in mainland China, with healthcare/pharmaceuticals (33%) and generative AI (28%) being the most familiar sectors [2] Group 3 - Major geopolitical conflicts and global trade tensions are the top concerns for family offices, with 61% expressing worries about geopolitical conflicts and 53% anxious about a global economic recession [3] - Climate change is viewed as one of the top three risks by 49% of Asia-Pacific family offices, while debt crises and financial market crises are also significant concerns [3] Group 4 - To mitigate risks, family offices are advised to diversify their investments, with 40% relying on investment managers for selection or active management [4] - The use of hedge funds is prevalent among nearly one-third (31%) of family offices, while 27% are increasing allocations to illiquid assets [4] - Family offices are rapidly evolving as a wealth management sub-industry, with a growing need for succession planning among Chinese entrepreneurs [4]

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Evonik Industries, Klaus Engel, expressed concerns that the ongoing tariff threats from the United States are detrimental to global economic development, potentially exacerbating a global recession [1] Group 1: Impact of U.S. Trade Policies - The trade policies of the U.S. government are described as catastrophic for the global economy, leading to a suppression of orders and investments from global customers [1] - There is a widespread uncertainty and concern among businesses and customers regarding the next actions of the U.S. government, which is affecting economic stability worldwide [1] Group 2: Outlook on U.S.-EU Tariff Agreements - Engel believes that the idea of a U.S.-EU tariff agreement completely eliminating uncertainty is naive, as any agreement would still face persistent unpredictability due to the erratic nature of U.S. policies [1] - The ongoing tariff threats are expected to continue creating economic instability, indicating that uncertainty will remain a significant issue for the foreseeable future [1]