黄金到底涨到什么时候是个头？跟历史上这种级别的行情有什么区别？现在进场还来的及吗？ 今天我从投资的视角来聊一下这个话题，声明一下，我这里没有标准答案，但你看完了肯定会有一个自 己的答案。 黄金的价格纯粹是由供需决定的存量博弈。 先来看供给，黄金被称为贵金属之王，就是在于它的稀缺性，现在全球开采出来的黄金总量大概21万 吨，把这些黄金全部融化之后，铺开在一个标准的足球场上，它大概只能垒到1.5米，还没有一个成年 人高，是不是感觉也没有想像中的那么多？ 这在一定程度上是因为黄金开采量都十分稳定，这十几年来黄金每年开采量在3000吨左右，金矿主不会 因为金价上涨就多开采一点，下跌就少挖一些，这是黄金非常重要的一个特征，它在供给侧几乎没有波 动！ 在需求端呢，最大的消费来自女性买家和婚嫁需求的首饰，每年用来打造首饰的黄金占到黄金供给的 60%，比如去年金饰消费量是1877吨。其中，印度和中国一数二的人口规模，让这两个国家每年要消化 了掉全球60%的黄金饰品需求。 按照这种说法，既然个人消费才是黄金的主流，那么决定金价的走势是不是中印两国买买买的热情呢？ 也并不是这个样子，金饰消费和避险投资这种两种需求，往往是相反的， ...

前不久，美联储再次宣布加息，这一消息引发了全球的广泛关注和担忧。在这种背景下，蒙古国的行动 引起了外界的高度关注。美联储加息消息发布后，蒙古国保持了6天的沉默，随后却突然与中国签署了 本币互换协议，这一决定让美国措手不及，而中国则达到了自己的目的。 一、蒙古放弃美元，回归中国怀抱，全面拥抱人民币 那么，蒙古国为什么会做出这样的举动？它与美国和中国的关系又是如何关联的呢？ 在8月中旬，中蒙两国在北京签署了本币互换协议，这意味着两国的货币互换正式启动。这一举措不仅 帮助蒙古减少了对美元的依赖，也让人民币的国际地位得到进一步提升。通过本币互换协议，中蒙两国 的经贸合作进入了一个全新的阶段。 在国际贸易中，越来越多的国家开始拒绝美元，转而选择本币或货币联盟。美国过度发行国债和滥印钞 票，已经让美元的地位不断动摇。特朗普曾预言美元会衰落，随着日本、沙特等国家急于抛售美债，全 球持有的美债总量正大幅下降。 新兴市场国家掀起了去美元化热潮，这一趋势愈加明显。美元的霸权地位正面临越来越大的挑战。 作为一个内陆国家，蒙古的经济发展依赖于邻国，尤其是中国。美国的频繁加息使得蒙古的债务负担越 来越重，同时，由于地理位置的限制，美元 ...

近日，中共中央政治局召开会议，指出明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积 极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力 度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。 首先，提振内需、稳定增长。货币政策应优先支持消费和投资回升，通过降低基准利率或引导贷款 市场报价利率（LPR）下行，减轻居民贷款负担，增强消费能力；通过降准、降息等工具，确保社会融 资规模和货币供应量增长与经济增长目标相匹配，同时避免利率长期过低对金融机构盈利造成侵蚀；并 通过定向补贴等方式，积极配合财政政策，激发居民消费潜力。 其次，优化信贷结构、支持重点领域。在总量宽松的同时，更加注重结构性工具精准发力，引导资 金流向实体经济薄弱环节和战略重点领域。例如，通过用好再贷款、再贴现等工具，降低企业融资成 本，推动金融机构优化信贷资源配置，重点加大对科技创新、绿色转型、小微企业、保障性住房等领域 的金融支持，持续提升服务实体经济的质效。 第三，防范金融风险、维护市场稳定。加强宏观审慎管理，通过证券、基金、保险公司互换便利等 定向工具稳定资本市场预期，避免过度宽松引发资产泡沫或汇率超调风险，保持人民币汇率 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses the macroeconomic outlook for 2026, focusing on global economic recovery, commodity performance, and the impact of U.S.-China trade relations on investment strategies. [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Global Economic Recovery**: The global economy is expected to shift towards recovery, with copper projected to perform best among commodities, while gold faces a risk of price correction to around $3,500. [1][2] 2. **U.S. Treasury Rates**: U.S. Treasury rates are anticipated to remain above 4% for the 10-year bonds, with the dollar index fluctuating between 100 and 105. [1][2] 3. **Technology Sector Capital Expenditure**: U.S. technology companies' capital expenditure is a critical macro variable that will determine whether the global economy enters a recovery or recession. Continued growth in capital expenditure is likely to support economic recovery. [1][5] 4. **U.S.-China Trade Dynamics**: The trade conflict between the U.S. and China is evolving into a competition in technology and security, necessitating investors to monitor policy changes closely. [4][7] 5. **Chinese Real Estate Market**: The decline in the Chinese real estate market is expected to stabilize, but its impact on the economy and asset pricing will diminish. The focus should be on managing non-performing assets in the financial sector. [1][8][9] 6. **Chinese Stock Market Outlook**: The potential for a bull market in Chinese stocks depends on liquidity easing, industry logic support, and stable fundamentals, with PPI growth being a key indicator. [1][14] 7. **Investment Opportunities**: In the event of global recovery, commodities like copper will present significant investment opportunities, while in a recession scenario, U.S. Treasuries and gold will be favored. [2][18] Other Important Insights 1. **Impact of Subsidy Reductions**: The tapering of subsidies for home appliances and automobiles is expected to negatively affect economic growth in 2026, although its impact on capital market pricing is considered limited. [16] 2. **CPI Data and Consumer Expectations**: Recent CPI data shows seasonal volatility in food prices, with core inflation remaining stable. The overall consumer trend is expected to improve, but strong performance remains challenging. [17] 3. **Future of U.S. Monetary Policy**: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy will be influenced more by economic demand than by the individual chairperson's style, with a focus on maintaining growth amid trade tensions. [20] 4. **Gold Market Trends**: The outlook for gold prices is expected to decline to around $3,500 in 2026, influenced by the dynamics of technology capital expenditure and U.S. monetary policy. [23] 5. **Long-term Technology Sector Development**: The competition in the technology sector between the U.S. and China is likely to drive increased capital expenditure, fostering overall economic recovery. [11] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the macroeconomic landscape, industry trends, and investment strategies for 2026.

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's primary objective is to ensure that the U.S. economy does not face issues due to liquidity, indicating a commitment to unlimited monetary support [1] - The market's reaction to the Federal Reserve's actions is secondary; the focus is on the Fed's stance and efforts to combat the economic impact of the pandemic [1] - The current global economic situation is dire, with the severity of the recession being a major concern rather than the possibility of recession itself [3] Group 2 - The effectiveness of monetary policy is limited, as the root cause of global panic remains the control of the virus [3] - The U.S. missed critical opportunities to manage the virus effectively, leading to a worsening economic situation [3] - The Federal Reserve's aggressive measures are necessary despite potential negative effects, as inaction could lead to severe consequences [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. tariff policy and the resulting trade war may push the global economy towards recession, as stated by the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Zakharova [1]. Group 1: Impact of U.S. Tariff Policy - The impact of U.S. tariff policy on the multilateral trade system largely depends on the responses of other countries [1]. - Lowering tariffs only on U.S. products creates an artificial competitive advantage for the U.S., violating World Trade Organization rules [1]. - Countries may significantly raise their own tariffs and adopt protective measures to prevent an influx of goods excluded by U.S. tariffs, leading to a restructuring of global supply chains and a decrease in international trade volume [1]. Group 2: Consequences of Trade Measures - The potential outcomes of these trade measures include a rise in global inflation and a possible global recession [1]. - The recent U.S. sanctions against Russia, particularly targeting the energy sector, complicate the restoration of U.S.-Russia relations [1]. - The European Union has also implemented new sanctions against Russia, including 69 individual sanctions and various economic restrictions, primarily affecting the energy, finance, and military sectors [1].

Core Viewpoint - Mongolian Energy (00276) anticipates a significant decrease in total revenue to no more than HKD 900 million for the six months ending September 30, 2025, compared to HKD 1.699 billion for the same period in 2024 [1] Group 1: Revenue Expectations - The expected revenue decline is primarily attributed to the global economic recession and a slowdown in the Chinese steel market [1] - The company forecasts weak demand for coking coal in China, along with a continuous drop in prices during the fiscal period [1] Group 2: Impact on Profitability - The anticipated reduction in revenue is expected to adversely affect the company's gross profit [1]

Group 1 - The company, Mongolian Energy (00276), anticipates a significant decrease in total revenue for the six months ending September 30, 2025, to not more than HKD 900 million, compared to HKD 1.699 billion for the same period ending September 30, 2024 [1] - The revenue decline is primarily attributed to the global economic recession and a slowdown in the Chinese steel market, leading to weak demand and continuous price drops for coking coal in China during the fiscal period [1] - The company expects that the reduction in revenue will adversely affect its gross profit [1]

Core Viewpoint - Mongolia Energy (00276.HK) anticipates a significant decline in total revenue for the six months ending September 30, 2025, projected to be no more than HKD 900 million, compared to HKD 1.699 billion for the same period ending September 30, 2024 [1] Revenue Impact - The expected revenue decrease is primarily attributed to the global economic downturn and a slowdown in the Chinese steel market, leading to weak demand and continuous price declines for coking coal in China during the fiscal period [1] Profitability Outlook - The company expects that the reduction in revenue will adversely affect its gross profit during the fiscal period [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how the Federal Reserve's monetary policy impacts emerging market stock markets, categorizing the external macro environment into four scenarios that influence market performance [2][4]. Group 1: Scenarios of Emerging Market Stock Performance - Scenario 1: During global monetary policy switching periods (e.g., initial or final stages of rate hikes/cuts), market expectations regarding the Fed's stance (hawkish/dovish) are crucial, with emerging market economic strength being less significant [5][24]. - Scenario 2: In periods of stable rate hikes/cuts, the sensitivity of the market to monetary policy decreases, and the economic expectations of emerging markets compared to the U.S. become key factors [9][25]. - Scenario 3: During global economic recessions or when recession expectations exist, emerging markets generally perform poorly [13][54]. - Scenario 4: In times of excessive liquidity, emerging market stocks typically perform well [15][62]. Group 2: Historical Review of Emerging Market Stock Performance - The article reviews emerging market stock performance from 2008 to 2025, highlighting key periods and their corresponding MSCI Emerging Markets Index movements [23][26]. - For instance, from January 2008 to February 2009, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell by 59.9% due to the global financial crisis, while from February 2009 to April 2010, it rebounded by 92.6% during a period of excessive liquidity [26]. - The performance during the stable rate hike period from February 2016 to January 2018 saw a 69.0% increase in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, driven by improving global economic conditions [46][48]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Emerging Markets Post-September Rate Cut - Following the September rate cut, three potential macro scenarios for emerging markets are outlined: 1. Continued mild economic cooling with no inflation rise, allowing for a sustained rate cut cycle [73]. 2. A rapid economic recovery post-rate cut, leading to a potential shift back to a hawkish stance by the Fed, which could pressure emerging markets [73][76]. 3. Risks of stagflation due to fluctuating tariffs impacting inflation, which could lead to downturns in both emerging markets and U.S. stocks [73][76]. - The article suggests that the likelihood of scenario 2 is higher, indicating that the best time for emerging market stock performance may have passed, while U.S. stocks could remain strong [76].