金融市场对避免全球同步衰退这一最坏情景松了一口气。但如果对高通胀和经济恶化的警惕 性减弱，特朗普利用关税作为武器的风险将进一步增加。"对中国高水平额外关税的持续，将 成为2025年下半年出口减少的原因之一"…… 美国政府8月7日启动了大规模的对等关税，这将进一步给全球经济施加下行压力。预计美国 将在短期内陷入1%的增长，日本和中国也将减速。4月以后持续升温的对经济衰退的过度悲 观情绪有所缓解，但这反而支撑了特朗普的强硬态度，招致新一轮高关税，这种讽刺的格局 仍在持续。 避免最坏情况，特朗普的自信是危险 很多国家和地区的对等关税税率比4月公布的数据有所降低。因此，美国摩根士丹利8月5日预 测的年底（10月至12月）全球增长率将达到2.6%，比4月时预测的2.2%有所上调。由于关 美国总统特朗普的自信是全球经济的危险（Reuters） 税对经济的负面影响不如4月时的预期严重，美国和欧元区的增长预期也从0.6%上调到了 1.0%。 金融市场对避免全球同步衰退这一最坏情景松了一口气。美国股市在高位保持稳定，特朗普8 月4日在社交媒体上自信地表示："美国再次变得非常富有，处于历史上最强的状态"。 但如果对高通胀和经济恶 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of the U.S. government's decision to impose high tariffs on imports from over 180 countries, marking a critical moment in modern trade history and raising concerns about the stability of the global trade system [1][3]. Trade Policy and Economic Impact - The U.S. has raised tariffs to an average of 15%, with only a few allies like the UK and Japan receiving a lower rate of 10% due to special agreements [1]. - Major trading partners such as China, Mexico, and Canada are excluded from a 90-day grace period, facing immediate tariff impacts [3]. - The U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness, with only 75,000 new jobs added, significantly below the expected 100,000, and previous months' data revised down by a total of 258,000 jobs [3][5]. Economic Forecasts and Predictions - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8% and increased the probability of a U.S. recession from 27% to 40% [7]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that the increase in effective tariffs could reduce U.S. GDP growth from 2.5% in 2024 to 0.5% in 2025 [7]. - A study from Yale indicates that U.S. households may face an additional $2,400 in annual expenses due to tariffs, with clothing prices potentially rising by 38% [7]. Global Reactions and Supply Chain Changes - In response to U.S. tariffs, China has raised tariffs on U.S. goods to 125% and is focusing on internal adjustments [8]. - The European Union is preparing retaliatory tariffs targeting U.S. tech companies and is seeking to strengthen ties with China [8]. - Emerging economies like Cambodia and Vietnam are warned to face severe impacts due to their reliance on the U.S. market [10]. Financial Market Reactions - Following the announcement of tariffs, U.S. stock markets experienced significant declines, with a total market value loss exceeding $1 trillion [13]. - Gold prices surged, while cryptocurrencies also faced substantial drops, indicating a flight to safety among investors [13]. Historical Context and Future Outlook - Economists draw parallels to the 1930s, warning that high tariffs could lead to a repeat of the disastrous trade wars that exacerbated the Great Depression [15][17]. - The article suggests that the current trade policies may signal the end of the golden age of free trade, leading to a more fragmented and regionalized trade order [17].

Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, copper prices experienced significant fluctuations, with LME copper price reaching $9,878 per ton, marking a year-to-date increase of 12.49%, while Shanghai copper futures rose by 8.27% to 79,870 CNY per ton [1] - The U.S. tariff policies under President Trump have caused considerable market disruptions, leading to concerns about a global economic recession, which impacted stock and futures markets [2][3] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8%, with developed economies' growth expectations lowered from 1.9% to 1.4% [3] Supply Analysis - Global copper mine production from January to April 2025 totaled 7.5254 million metric tons, an increase of 2.64% year-on-year, but major copper producers reported a decline in output [8][9] - The anticipated global copper mine increment for 2025 is between 220,000 to 300,000 tons, with significant contributions expected from projects like Oyu Tolgoi and Kamoa-Kakula [11] - Domestic copper concentrate production in China for January to March 2025 reached 427,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.26%, but still below levels from 2022 and 2023 [12] Demand Analysis - In the U.S., new housing starts have declined, while automotive sales remain stable, contributing limited growth to copper consumption [17] - In China, investment in power grid projects increased by 14.59% year-on-year, and the production of new energy vehicles surged by 48.35% [17] - Overall, domestic copper consumption is expected to show resilience, with strong growth in the power grid sector and stable performance in the automotive sector [17] Trade Flow Changes - The U.S. initiated a "232 investigation" into copper imports, leading to significant changes in global copper trade flows, with COMEX and LME markets experiencing increased arbitrage trading [18][19] - Chile's refined copper exports decreased by 11.1% year-on-year, while exports to the U.S. saw a significant increase of 116.11% [19] - As of June 30, 2025, global copper inventories decreased by 20.59% year-on-year, indicating tightening supply conditions [19] Outlook for the Second Half - The copper market is expected to maintain high prices due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies, supply constraints, and resilient demand [20] - If no major risk events occur, copper prices may continue to rise, potentially reaching new highs, although there is a risk of temporary price corrections following the implementation of U.S. tariffs [21]

Group 1 - The core concern among investors is the potential for a global economic recession triggered by trade wars, with 38% identifying it as the largest tail risk event [1][3] - Trade tensions have escalated, leading to increased tariffs and a slowdown in global trade flow, which directly impacts import and export businesses and affects supply chains across various industries [3] - The potential chain reaction from trade wars could lead to production shrinkage, job losses, and decreased demand globally, ultimately resulting in an economic downturn [3] Group 2 - 20% of investors view inflation hindering the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates as the second-largest tail risk event, complicating the global inflation landscape [4] - Persistent high inflation could prevent the Federal Reserve from implementing rate cuts, increasing corporate financing costs and putting pressure on economic growth [4] - The inability to lower interest rates could lead to significant market reactions, particularly affecting high-valuation growth stocks and emerging markets facing capital outflow risks [4] Group 3 - 14% of investors consider the depreciation of the dollar due to capital outflows as the third-largest tail risk event, highlighting the dollar's critical role in the global financial system [5][6] - A weakening dollar could increase the cost of dollar-denominated commodities, exacerbating global inflation pressures, and raise debt servicing costs for emerging markets with significant dollar-denominated debt [6] - Historical precedents show that tail risk events, while low in probability, can have far-reaching impacts, emphasizing the need for investors to remain vigilant [6] Group 4 - The current global economic landscape is characterized by intertwined challenges such as trade disputes, inflation pressures, and monetary policy adjustments, increasing the likelihood and potential impact of tail risks [6] - The survey results serve as a warning for investors to manage risks effectively through diversified asset allocation and hedging strategies [6] - Policymakers are encouraged to enhance international cooperation to resolve trade disputes and maintain a balance between inflation control and economic growth [7]

Group 1 - The macroeconomic outlook has improved, leading to a strong performance in the A-share market. Recent international developments have shown marginal improvement, with the U.S. fiscal expansion plan helping to alleviate recession expectations and stabilize global capital markets [1] - Domestic efforts to combat "involution" are ongoing, which is expected to ease overcapacity concerns and positively impact profit expectations. Investors are closely monitoring macroeconomic data for June and the first half of the year, as well as future policy directions [1] - The two markets exhibited volatility and differentiation, with trading volume decreasing. On Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight rebound, closing above the five-day moving average, while the Shenzhen Component Index saw a slight decline. The total trading volume was around 1.4 trillion yuan, down from the previous Friday [1] Group 2 - The market structure showed more stocks rising than falling, with a notable increase in the number of stocks hitting the daily limit up, although there was also a rise in limit down stocks, which warrants attention. The main market focus was on the robotics and power sectors, with small-cap stocks leading in gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the dense trading area from the fourth quarter of last year, continuing to move upward. After surpassing the small trading range from May and June, it has crossed above the dense trading area from the fourth quarter of last year, with the main technical resistance level now at the high point from early October last year, which also represents the top of the weekly large trading range [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, currently possibly at the end of the trend. Shanghai Silver futures are in a sideways trend, also at the end of the trend. For both gold and silver, it is recommended to wait and see. The prices of gold and silver are influenced by multiple factors such as trade policies, the US dollar index, and industrial demand [7][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, currently possibly at the end of the trend [7]. - Trend judgment logic: US tariff policies have raised concerns about global economic recession and supply chain disruptions, increasing gold's safe - haven demand. Although the rising US dollar index suppresses gold prices, the strong demand for gold shows concerns about the US dollar's credit. The overall inflow of funds into gold ETFs is still strong, and central banks, especially the People's Bank of China, have continuously increased their gold holdings. The reduced expectation of a July interest rate cut and the increased expectation of a September cut also support gold prices [7]. - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The short - term trend of the gold main contract 2510 was bearish, with support at 754 - 760 and resistance at 784 - 790 [11]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The gold main contract 2510 is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to conduct grid trading in the range of 760 - 782 [12]. 3.3 Relevant Data - The report presents data on the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, the US dollar index, the US dollar against the offshore RMB, the gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and the gold's internal - external price difference [17][19][21]. Silver Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is sideways, currently at the end of the trend [30]. - Trend judgment logic: The increase in trade concerns last week boosted silver's safe - haven demand. The repair logic of the gold - silver ratio, the weakening US dollar index, and geopolitical tensions support silver from a financial perspective. The continuous growth of silver demand in the photovoltaic and electric vehicle industries strengthens its fundamentals. However, the industrial nature of silver may limit its price increase if the risk of global economic recession intensifies [30]. - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [31]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The silver contract 2510 was expected to be strong, with support in the range of 8800 - 8900 [33]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The silver contract 2510 is expected to be strong, with support in the range of 8400 - 8500 and resistance at 8900 - 9000 [33]. 3.3 Relevant Data - The report shows data on the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and the silver's internal - external price difference [39][41][43].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that May's inflation and export data are weak, leading to a continued loose state of interbank liquidity and a slight decline in government bond yields [1] - The U.S. inflation weakening and cooling employment have expanded expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, resulting in a significant decline in U.S. Treasury yields [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield is at 1.64%, with a change of -1.1 basis points from the previous week [1] Group 2 - There is an increasing probability of global economic recession risks due to uncertainties in the global macro environment and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] - Domestic monetary policy easing is less than expected, leading to risks of rising funding prices, while the implementation of domestic growth stabilization policies is also below expectations, resulting in declining financing demand [1] - The intensification of overseas geopolitical conflicts contributes to a complex and severe global political situation, with ongoing deterioration and expansion of geopolitical tensions [1] Group 3 - The 10-year Treasury ETF (511260) employs an optimized sampling replication strategy to closely track the Shanghai Stock Exchange 10-year Treasury Index, selecting highly liquid government bonds to construct its portfolio [1] - The current average duration of the portfolio is 7.6 years, and it publishes a daily PCF list, ensuring transparency in holdings, making it suitable for medium to long-term investors seeking stable returns [1]

Group 1 - OPEC+ agreed on a significant production increase plan of 411,000 barrels per day for July during an online meeting on May 31 [1][2] - Concerns over multiple oil-producing countries accelerating their exit from voluntary production cuts led to fluctuations in international oil prices, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices closing at $60.79 and $63.90 per barrel, respectively [1][2] - The overall decline in international oil prices this year has been approximately 15%, raising concerns about the future performance of the oil extraction industry [2] Group 2 - Analysts from JPMorgan indicated that the global oil market is currently oversupplied by 2.2 million barrels per day, suggesting that price adjustments may be necessary to restore balance [3] - Violeta Todorova from Leverage Shares noted that if OPEC+ countries increase supply as expected, oil prices could drop by about 10%, potentially reaching $53 to $55 per barrel [4] - The low oil prices pose financial risks to oil producers worldwide, particularly affecting U.S. shale oil producers who may struggle to respond to calls for increased drilling [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the volatility of gold prices, with significant fluctuations becoming commonplace, particularly after April, where daily price changes of $100 have become routine [1][3] - The current market conditions are driven by various factors including trade wars, geopolitical tensions, central bank gold purchases, de-dollarization, and uncertainties in Federal Reserve policies, leading to increased investor speculation in gold [3][5] - The gold market is expected to experience a range of $2950 to $3500, with potential for both long and short positions as long as there are sufficient reasons and risk management is in place [3][5] Group 2 - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $3415 and $3438, with a potential breakthrough leading to new highs around $3500, while support levels are noted at $3280-$3285 and $3300 [5][8] - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on the range between $3365 and $3330, with opportunities for both long and short positions depending on market movements [7][8] - The silver market is advised to follow gold's trends without independent analysis, indicating a strong correlation between the two precious metals [9]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing extreme volatility, with significant price fluctuations becoming commonplace, driven by various macroeconomic factors such as trade wars, geopolitical tensions, central bank gold purchases, and economic recession fears [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold has seen unprecedented daily price movements, with fluctuations of $100 becoming routine, indicating a highly speculative environment [1]. - The recent trading session showed a high of 3345 and a low of 3279, with a total daily range of $66, which is considered normal for recent market conditions [1][3]. Group 2: Trading Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt strict stop-loss strategies and to be flexible in their trading approach, whether going long or short, as long as there are solid reasons for their positions [1]. - Key support levels to watch include the 3280 area, with potential pullbacks to 3250-55 or even 3200 if the market declines [5][7]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The market is currently at a critical juncture, with the 3315 area acting as a resistance level and the 3280 area serving as a support level [7]. - The trading strategy should involve buying near support levels and selling at resistance, with specific attention to the 5-day and 10-day moving averages for additional support [5][7].