Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses the macroeconomic outlook for 2026, focusing on global economic recovery, commodity performance, and the impact of U.S.-China trade relations on investment strategies. [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Global Economic Recovery**: The global economy is expected to shift towards recovery, with copper projected to perform best among commodities, while gold faces a risk of price correction to around $3,500. [1][2] 2. **U.S. Treasury Rates**: U.S. Treasury rates are anticipated to remain above 4% for the 10-year bonds, with the dollar index fluctuating between 100 and 105. [1][2] 3. **Technology Sector Capital Expenditure**: U.S. technology companies' capital expenditure is a critical macro variable that will determine whether the global economy enters a recovery or recession. Continued growth in capital expenditure is likely to support economic recovery. [1][5] 4. **U.S.-China Trade Dynamics**: The trade conflict between the U.S. and China is evolving into a competition in technology and security, necessitating investors to monitor policy changes closely. [4][7] 5. **Chinese Real Estate Market**: The decline in the Chinese real estate market is expected to stabilize, but its impact on the economy and asset pricing will diminish. The focus should be on managing non-performing assets in the financial sector. [1][8][9] 6. **Chinese Stock Market Outlook**: The potential for a bull market in Chinese stocks depends on liquidity easing, industry logic support, and stable fundamentals, with PPI growth being a key indicator. [1][14] 7. **Investment Opportunities**: In the event of global recovery, commodities like copper will present significant investment opportunities, while in a recession scenario, U.S. Treasuries and gold will be favored. [2][18] Other Important Insights 1. **Impact of Subsidy Reductions**: The tapering of subsidies for home appliances and automobiles is expected to negatively affect economic growth in 2026, although its impact on capital market pricing is considered limited. [16] 2. **CPI Data and Consumer Expectations**: Recent CPI data shows seasonal volatility in food prices, with core inflation remaining stable. The overall consumer trend is expected to improve, but strong performance remains challenging. [17] 3. **Future of U.S. Monetary Policy**: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy will be influenced more by economic demand than by the individual chairperson's style, with a focus on maintaining growth amid trade tensions. [20] 4. **Gold Market Trends**: The outlook for gold prices is expected to decline to around $3,500 in 2026, influenced by the dynamics of technology capital expenditure and U.S. monetary policy. [23] 5. **Long-term Technology Sector Development**: The competition in the technology sector between the U.S. and China is likely to drive increased capital expenditure, fostering overall economic recovery. [11] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the macroeconomic landscape, industry trends, and investment strategies for 2026.

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's primary objective is to ensure that the U.S. economy does not face issues due to liquidity, indicating a commitment to unlimited monetary support [1] - The market's reaction to the Federal Reserve's actions is secondary; the focus is on the Fed's stance and efforts to combat the economic impact of the pandemic [1] - The current global economic situation is dire, with the severity of the recession being a major concern rather than the possibility of recession itself [3] Group 2 - The effectiveness of monetary policy is limited, as the root cause of global panic remains the control of the virus [3] - The U.S. missed critical opportunities to manage the virus effectively, leading to a worsening economic situation [3] - The Federal Reserve's aggressive measures are necessary despite potential negative effects, as inaction could lead to severe consequences [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. tariff policy and the resulting trade war may push the global economy towards recession, as stated by the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Zakharova [1]. Group 1: Impact of U.S. Tariff Policy - The impact of U.S. tariff policy on the multilateral trade system largely depends on the responses of other countries [1]. - Lowering tariffs only on U.S. products creates an artificial competitive advantage for the U.S., violating World Trade Organization rules [1]. - Countries may significantly raise their own tariffs and adopt protective measures to prevent an influx of goods excluded by U.S. tariffs, leading to a restructuring of global supply chains and a decrease in international trade volume [1]. Group 2: Consequences of Trade Measures - The potential outcomes of these trade measures include a rise in global inflation and a possible global recession [1]. - The recent U.S. sanctions against Russia, particularly targeting the energy sector, complicate the restoration of U.S.-Russia relations [1]. - The European Union has also implemented new sanctions against Russia, including 69 individual sanctions and various economic restrictions, primarily affecting the energy, finance, and military sectors [1].

Core Viewpoint - Mongolian Energy (00276) anticipates a significant decrease in total revenue to no more than HKD 900 million for the six months ending September 30, 2025, compared to HKD 1.699 billion for the same period in 2024 [1] Group 1: Revenue Expectations - The expected revenue decline is primarily attributed to the global economic recession and a slowdown in the Chinese steel market [1] - The company forecasts weak demand for coking coal in China, along with a continuous drop in prices during the fiscal period [1] Group 2: Impact on Profitability - The anticipated reduction in revenue is expected to adversely affect the company's gross profit [1]

Group 1 - The company, Mongolian Energy (00276), anticipates a significant decrease in total revenue for the six months ending September 30, 2025, to not more than HKD 900 million, compared to HKD 1.699 billion for the same period ending September 30, 2024 [1] - The revenue decline is primarily attributed to the global economic recession and a slowdown in the Chinese steel market, leading to weak demand and continuous price drops for coking coal in China during the fiscal period [1] - The company expects that the reduction in revenue will adversely affect its gross profit [1]

Core Viewpoint - Mongolia Energy (00276.HK) anticipates a significant decline in total revenue for the six months ending September 30, 2025, projected to be no more than HKD 900 million, compared to HKD 1.699 billion for the same period ending September 30, 2024 [1] Revenue Impact - The expected revenue decrease is primarily attributed to the global economic downturn and a slowdown in the Chinese steel market, leading to weak demand and continuous price declines for coking coal in China during the fiscal period [1] Profitability Outlook - The company expects that the reduction in revenue will adversely affect its gross profit during the fiscal period [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how the Federal Reserve's monetary policy impacts emerging market stock markets, categorizing the external macro environment into four scenarios that influence market performance [2][4]. Group 1: Scenarios of Emerging Market Stock Performance - Scenario 1: During global monetary policy switching periods (e.g., initial or final stages of rate hikes/cuts), market expectations regarding the Fed's stance (hawkish/dovish) are crucial, with emerging market economic strength being less significant [5][24]. - Scenario 2: In periods of stable rate hikes/cuts, the sensitivity of the market to monetary policy decreases, and the economic expectations of emerging markets compared to the U.S. become key factors [9][25]. - Scenario 3: During global economic recessions or when recession expectations exist, emerging markets generally perform poorly [13][54]. - Scenario 4: In times of excessive liquidity, emerging market stocks typically perform well [15][62]. Group 2: Historical Review of Emerging Market Stock Performance - The article reviews emerging market stock performance from 2008 to 2025, highlighting key periods and their corresponding MSCI Emerging Markets Index movements [23][26]. - For instance, from January 2008 to February 2009, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell by 59.9% due to the global financial crisis, while from February 2009 to April 2010, it rebounded by 92.6% during a period of excessive liquidity [26]. - The performance during the stable rate hike period from February 2016 to January 2018 saw a 69.0% increase in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, driven by improving global economic conditions [46][48]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Emerging Markets Post-September Rate Cut - Following the September rate cut, three potential macro scenarios for emerging markets are outlined: 1. Continued mild economic cooling with no inflation rise, allowing for a sustained rate cut cycle [73]. 2. A rapid economic recovery post-rate cut, leading to a potential shift back to a hawkish stance by the Fed, which could pressure emerging markets [73][76]. 3. Risks of stagflation due to fluctuating tariffs impacting inflation, which could lead to downturns in both emerging markets and U.S. stocks [73][76]. - The article suggests that the likelihood of scenario 2 is higher, indicating that the best time for emerging market stock performance may have passed, while U.S. stocks could remain strong [76].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Scenarios - The impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy on emerging market stocks can be categorized into four scenarios: global monetary policy switching period, stable rate increase/decrease period, global economic recession, and liquidity excess period[1] - In the global monetary policy switching period, market expectations regarding the Fed's hawkish/dovish stance are key, while emerging market economic strength has less impact[1] - During stable rate increase/decrease periods, the sensitivity to monetary policy decreases, and the economic expectations of emerging markets compared to the U.S. become crucial[1] Group 2: Historical Performance Analysis - Historical analysis from 2008 to 2025 shows that emerging market stocks have varied performance under different monetary policy conditions[2] - For instance, from January 2008 to February 2009, emerging markets fell by 59.9% during the financial crisis, while from February 2009 to April 2010, they rebounded by 92.6% in a liquidity excess period[2] - In the stable rate increase period from February 2016 to January 2018, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose by 69.0% as global manufacturing PMI improved[2] Group 3: Future Outlook Post-Rate Cut - Following the September rate cut, the macro environment is likely entering a monetary policy switching phase, which may exert downward pressure on emerging market stocks[1] - If the Fed's monetary policy expectations do not shift to rate hikes, emerging markets may still perform well despite potential rate cut reversals[1] - The report suggests that the most favorable time for emerging markets may have passed, similar to the period from September to December 2024[1]

Group 1 - The macroeconomic data continues to show resilience, with August PPI reading at -2.9%, indicating a marginal improvement in the economy [1] - Financial data is on an upward trend, supporting the real economy and investment environment, which provides significant backing for the domestic capital market [1] - The focus moving forward will be on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decision, which currently has a high probability and is expected to positively impact global risk asset prices [1] Group 2 - The market experienced a rebound last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering short-term moving averages and reaching new highs [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index outperformed, indicating strong market elasticity, while average daily trading volume decreased to approximately 23,000 billion [2] - Market hotspots were primarily in the TMT and upstream raw materials sectors, with technology and small-cap stocks leading in gains [2] - The market is attempting to resume an upward trend after technical consolidation, with major indices recovering previous losses and reaching new highs [2] - However, there are concerns regarding declining trading volume and rapid rotation of market hotspots, suggesting potential market divergence and a focus on structural trends [2]

Market Performance - Major US stock indices closed lower due to weak non-farm employment data, which reinforced expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.48% to 45400.86 points, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.32% to 6481.5 points, and the Nasdaq dropped by 0.03% to 21700.39 points [1] - European indices also closed down, with Germany's DAX down 0.73%, France's CAC40 down 0.31%, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.09% [1] Employment Data - The US added only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below the expected 75,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase for the second consecutive month [3] - Job growth was primarily in the healthcare sector, which added 31,000 jobs, while manufacturing, wholesale trade, and government sectors saw losses of over 10,000 jobs each [3] Gold Market - International gold prices reached a new high, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.92% to $3639.8 per ounce [5] - In August, gold ETFs saw a net inflow of $5.5 billion, mainly from North America ($4.1 billion) and Europe ($1.9 billion), while Asia experienced outflows [5] - The World Gold Council attributed the rise in gold prices to a weaker dollar, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and continued inflows into global gold ETFs [5] Oil Market - US oil prices fell, with the main contract down 2.38% to $61.97 per barrel, and Brent crude down 2.06% to $65.61 per barrel [7][8] - The decline in oil prices is influenced by rising expectations of increased production from OPEC+, as well as concerns over economic recession [8][9] - OPEC+ is considering further increasing oil production to regain market share, having already raised output by approximately 2.5 million barrels per day since April [9]