Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how the Federal Reserve's monetary policy impacts emerging market stock markets, categorizing the external macro environment into four scenarios that influence market performance [2][4]. Group 1: Scenarios of Emerging Market Stock Performance - Scenario 1: During global monetary policy switching periods (e.g., initial or final stages of rate hikes/cuts), market expectations regarding the Fed's stance (hawkish/dovish) are crucial, with emerging market economic strength being less significant [5][24]. - Scenario 2: In periods of stable rate hikes/cuts, the sensitivity of the market to monetary policy decreases, and the economic expectations of emerging markets compared to the U.S. become key factors [9][25]. - Scenario 3: During global economic recessions or when recession expectations exist, emerging markets generally perform poorly [13][54]. - Scenario 4: In times of excessive liquidity, emerging market stocks typically perform well [15][62]. Group 2: Historical Review of Emerging Market Stock Performance - The article reviews emerging market stock performance from 2008 to 2025, highlighting key periods and their corresponding MSCI Emerging Markets Index movements [23][26]. - For instance, from January 2008 to February 2009, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell by 59.9% due to the global financial crisis, while from February 2009 to April 2010, it rebounded by 92.6% during a period of excessive liquidity [26]. - The performance during the stable rate hike period from February 2016 to January 2018 saw a 69.0% increase in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, driven by improving global economic conditions [46][48]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Emerging Markets Post-September Rate Cut - Following the September rate cut, three potential macro scenarios for emerging markets are outlined: 1. Continued mild economic cooling with no inflation rise, allowing for a sustained rate cut cycle [73]. 2. A rapid economic recovery post-rate cut, leading to a potential shift back to a hawkish stance by the Fed, which could pressure emerging markets [73][76]. 3. Risks of stagflation due to fluctuating tariffs impacting inflation, which could lead to downturns in both emerging markets and U.S. stocks [73][76]. - The article suggests that the likelihood of scenario 2 is higher, indicating that the best time for emerging market stock performance may have passed, while U.S. stocks could remain strong [76].

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 美联储降息后，新兴市场股市何去何从？ ——基于四大情景的复盘 我们尝试对 2008-2025 年新兴市场的每一轮上涨/下跌行情分别进行复盘，可 以看到，新兴市场股市的强弱存在四种情景： ① 全球货币政策切换期（如加息/降息尾声或初期），市场对美联储货币政策 的鹰/鸽预期会成为影响新兴市场股市的关键因素；这一时期新兴市场经济强 弱影响不大。 2010 年 5-6 月：美联储 QE1 结束、QE2 未启动，货币政策有收紧预期，MSCI 新兴市场指数与港股快速下跌。 核心结论：美联储货币政策会如何影响新兴市场股市？通过复盘我们将新兴市 场股市的外部宏观环境划分为 4 种情景： 1、全球货币政策切换期（如加息/降息尾声或初期），市场对美联储货币政策的 鹰/鸽预期会成为影响新兴市场股市的关键因素；这一时期新兴市场经济强弱 影响不大。 2、美联储稳定加息/降息时期，市场对货币政策的敏感度降低，新兴市场的经 济预期以及新兴市场相比美国的经济预期强弱，是影响新兴市场股市的关键因 素。 3、全球经济衰退/存在衰退预期时，新兴市场均表现偏弱。 4、全球处于流动性泛滥时期，新兴市场股市通常不差 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Precious Metals and Aluminum Market [1][3][17] Core Insights and Arguments - **Shift in Precious Metals Valuation Framework**: Since 2022, geopolitical events and de-globalization have led central banks and large institutions to increase gold allocations, significantly impacting gold prices [1][6] - **Market Conditions Similar to 2004-2006**: Current market conditions exhibit similarities to the 2004-2006 period, characterized by liquidity excess and the development of commodity derivatives, which have driven gold prices higher [1][5] - **Long-term Gold Price Projections**: Without clear interest rate cuts, gold prices are expected to fluctuate between $3,100 and $3,500. If a rate cut cycle begins and inflation expectations adjust to around 3%, gold prices could rise to between $3,600 and $3,800 [10][11] - **Aluminum Market Dynamics**: China's electrolytic aluminum production is nearing its peak, with limited new global production expected. The aluminum market is anticipated to remain in a state of continuous supply-demand imbalance [3][17] - **Investment Recommendations**: It is advised to allocate investments in precious metals-related assets, such as gold or related stocks, due to their strong hedging capabilities against macroeconomic risks [3][15] Additional Important Insights - **Recent Factors Influencing Gold Prices**: Recent increases in gold prices are attributed to poor economic data and heightened interest in safe-haven assets due to anticipated interest rate cuts [2][11] - **Long-term Gold Demand**: Central banks are expected to continue purchasing gold, which will support long-term price increases. The global central bank gold reserve ratio is projected to require 20 years of sustained purchases to return to Cold War levels [9][12] - **Aluminum Demand Outlook**: Despite concerns in the domestic market regarding demand from sectors like photovoltaics and automotive, the actual situation is not as pessimistic as anticipated, with signs of recovery in construction demand [17] - **Copper and Aluminum Price Trends**: Prices for copper and aluminum are expected to experience high-level fluctuations, driven by demand changes, particularly in the latter part of the year [19] - **Silver Market Performance**: The silver market is gaining attention, with expectations of stronger price increases if economic conditions stabilize, as silver typically outperforms gold in such scenarios [13][14] Conclusion - **Investment Strategy**: Investors are encouraged to consider precious metals as a strategic component of their portfolios, particularly in light of ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and the potential for significant price appreciation in the sector [15][16]

Group 1 - The stock market is experiencing significant growth, with the Wind All A Equal-weight Index reaching a historical high [1] - The convertible bond equal-weight index has also reached a historical high [2] - Major US indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, have achieved new highs [4] - Japan's stock market has reached a new high as well [5] - Vietnam's stock market has also hit a new high [6] Group 2 - Gold prices are approaching historical highs [7] - Cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, are nearing new highs [8] - A broader perspective shows that several countries, including Italy, the UK, Germany, India, Singapore, South Korea, and Mexico, are close to historical highs [10] - Global money supply and global debt are at historical peaks [10] - The Federal Reserve has indicated plans to lower interest rates next month, with a total of three rate cuts expected this year [10] - There is a prevailing trend of abundant liquidity, indicating a global asset boom [10]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - **Market Sentiment**: The VIX index has dropped below 15, indicating increased risk appetite among investors, favoring aggressive investment strategies such as SPACs and cryptocurrencies, while the S&P 500 dividend stock index has underperformed [1][2] - **U.S. Real Estate Market**: The U.S. real estate market remains weak, with both existing and new home sales declining, and residential investment showing negative year-on-year growth [10][11] Core Insights and Arguments - **Retail Investor Activity**: Retail investors are heavily involved in speculative trading, particularly in non-profitable tech stocks, with participation rates exceeding 25%, indicating a significant increase in speculative behavior compared to 2021 [3][4] - **Financial Conditions**: Despite the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates, financial conditions have loosened to levels seen before the 2022 rate hikes, supported by strong economic performance and positive corporate earnings [6][8] - **Federal Reserve's Stance**: Concerns exist regarding the potential for the Fed to continue lowering rates, which could exacerbate asset price bubbles. The M2 money supply remains above pre-pandemic levels, necessitating a cautious approach to liquidity [7][8] - **Global Market Euphoria**: Global capital markets are exhibiting euphoric behavior, which could pose risks if there are significant shocks or data changes in the future [9] Additional Important Content - **Real Estate Market Weakness**: The primary reason for the weakness in the U.S. real estate market is high interest rates, with the 30-year mortgage rate only decreasing slightly compared to historical trends, leading to a lack of significant recovery in residential investment [11][12] - **Future Demand Recovery**: A recovery in real estate demand is contingent on the 30-year mortgage rate falling to 5.5%, which is currently at 6.7%. Achieving this within the next six months is deemed unlikely without multiple rate cuts from the Fed [12] - **Upcoming Economic Events**: Key economic events to watch include the Fed's July meeting, trade negotiations, and non-farm payroll data releases, all of which could significantly impact market dynamics [14][15] - **Inflation and Tariff Concerns**: The Fed is cautious about inflation risks stemming from tariffs, which have already begun to affect prices in various sectors. The Fed's policy decisions will remain independent of political pressures, focusing instead on economic fundamentals [16][17][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The U.S. non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and the three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting new highs. The upcoming "Great Beauty" bill in the U.S. will further push up the fiscal deficit, facing the risk of liquidity flooding. The domestic market rotation continues, and the stock index rebounded on low volume on the day, and it is expected to oscillate and then repair [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Domestically, the Caixin China Services PMI in June was 50.6, down 0.5 percentage points from May, hitting the lowest level since Q4 2024. The Composite PMI Output Index rebounded 1.7 percentage points to 51.3 in June. From January to May, China's total service imports and exports were 3.25436 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, of which exports were 1.40337 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.1%; imports were 1.85099 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.7%. Overseas, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the "Great Beauty" tax and spending bill promoted by President Trump. The bill will raise the U.S. federal government's statutory debt ceiling by $5 trillion, and the Congressional Budget Office estimates that this may increase the government's budget deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade [1] - In the spot market, the three major A-share indexes oscillated and rebounded. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.18% to close at 3461.15 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.90%. In terms of industries, most sector indexes rose. The electronics, power equipment, pharmaceutical biology, and communication industries led the gains, while the coal, transportation, and steel industries led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets continued to decline to 1.3 trillion yuan. Overseas, the number of non-farm payrolls in the U.S. increased by 147,000 in June, far exceeding the expected 110,000. The employment numbers in April and May were revised up by a total of 16,000; the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, compared with an expected increase to 4.3%. The number of initial jobless claims last week was 233,000, the lowest in six weeks. After the data was released, the market abandoned its bets on a Fed rate cut in July, and the probability of a rate cut in September declined. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher across the board, with the Nasdaq rising 1.02% to close at 20601.10 points [2] - In the futures market, the basis trends of stock index futures were divergent, and the discounts of IC and IM deepened again. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume of IF increased, and the open interest of IC and IM rebounded [2] Strategy - The U.S. non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and the three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher. The upcoming "Great Beauty" bill in the U.S. will further push up the fiscal deficit, facing the risk of liquidity flooding. The domestic market rotation continues, and the stock index rebounded on low volume on the day, and it is expected to oscillate and then repair [3] Macro Economic Charts - The report includes charts showing the relationship between the U.S. dollar index and A-share trends, the U.S. Treasury yield and A-share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A-share trends, and the U.S. Treasury yield and A-share style trends [6][11][10] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on July 3, 2025, shows that the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.17%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.90%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.62%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.18%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.50%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.53% [13] - Charts show the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin balance [6][14] Futures Market Tracking Charts - The trading volume and open interest data of stock index futures show that the trading volume of IF was 73,590, an increase of 2,786; the trading volume of IH was 34,173, a decrease of 3,073; the trading volume of IC was 64,956, a decrease of 523. The open interest of IF was 238,967, a decrease of 481; the open interest of IH was 80,640, a decrease of 1,877; the open interest of IC was 220,451, an increase of 1,566 [15] - Charts show the open interest and open interest ratio of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts, as well as the net open interest of foreign capital in these contracts [6][18][20] - The basis data of stock index futures show the basis values and changes of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts in different periods [42][43] - The inter - period spread data of stock index futures show the spread values and changes of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts in different periods [49][50]