中信建投（25.730，0.10，0.39%）认为，短期A股继续超预期上行面临一定阻力，PPI弱于预期、关税缓和协议到期与估值 修复完成带来的交易缩量，但我们认为A股仍处于牛市中继，回调带来配置良机。当前海外边际改善，美联储人事变动或提升 市场降息预期，美元走弱趋势利好新兴市场股市，其中港股相对更加受益。政策信号下，反内卷与宽信用有望促使价格低位温 和回升。近期行业轮动加速，建议关注新赛道低位细分品种。 华西证券（9.950，0.05，0.51%）认为，本轮行情增量资金来源众多，有保险、养老金、公募基金、私募基金等机构资 金，也有居民配置资金的入市。自"924"行情启动以来，我国M1-M2同比增速负剪刀差持续收窄，反映资金活化程度增强，居 民的消费和投资意愿出现边际回暖迹象。近期两融余额站上十年新高，反映个人投资者风险偏好正在持续回升。在资产配置荒 下，牛市思维正促进居民资产配置向权益类资产倾斜，居民增量资金入市将成为本轮"慢牛"行情的重要驱动，仍看好下半年A 股冲击2024年高点。风格上，"十五五"规划将成为后市聚焦点，科技成长仍将是未来较长一段时间的政策主线。 8月11日消息，三大指数小幅高开，能源金属板 ...

智通财经APP获悉，由于美国总统特朗普威胁提高半导体行业的关税，以及台积电2nm芯片工艺出现了 泄密令投资者感到恐慌，半导体类股拖累新兴市场股市基准指数走低。MSCI 新兴市场股票指数下跌 0.2%，该跌幅基本主要是由于台积电股价下跌所致。在货币方面，表现最差的是亚洲货币，而南非兰 特和墨西哥比索则有所上涨。除台积电外，该股指涨跌互现。中国电商类股上涨，腾讯领涨，而韩国芯 片制造商则出现下跌。 在经历了七个月的上涨(这是自2017年以来持续时间最长的上涨行情)之后，投资者正在重新评估新兴市 场股市的前景。特朗普的关税措施损害了发展中国家的经济增长，许多国家尚未达成协议，一些国家 (例如印度)甚至面临惩罚性关税的威胁。 尽管消费经济依然疲软，地缘政治紧张局势持续，但对美联储放松货币政策的预期有所改善，为市场提 供了略微积极的背景。由于北半球正值暑假，市场交投清淡。截至发稿，MSCI新兴市场股票指数交易 量较其30日均值下跌24%。 对于那些关注技术指标的人来说，新兴市场股票的下跌发生在MSCI新兴市场股票指数月度相对价格指 数触及68之后，接近过去抛售前的所谓超卖水平70。该指数已从7月24日的峰值下跌了约2% ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent focus in the market is the narrowing of the AH share premium, with UBS indicating that unless there is a significant influx of additional liquidity into the A-shares, the AH premium will remain at its current low mid-range levels [1] Group 1: AH Share Premium Dynamics - UBS statistics show a high correlation coefficient of 0.83 between the AH share premium and the US dollar index over the past 15 years, suggesting that a weaker dollar typically leads to a narrower AH premium, indicating better performance of H-shares relative to A-shares [1] - The changes in the AH share price differential are largely influenced by the liquidity differences between onshore and offshore markets [1] Group 2: Impact of Dollar Fluctuations - During periods of a weaker dollar, global liquidity tends to improve, resulting in capital inflows into emerging markets, and vice versa [1] - Despite the narrowing premium, UBS believes that A-shares will still benefit moderately from a slight strengthening of the RMB against the USD when the dollar declines [1] Group 3: Emerging Market Performance - UBS estimates that over the past decade, a 10% decline in the US dollar index has led to a relative increase of 9% in emerging market equities [1] - From a profitability perspective, Chinese companies with significant costs tied to imports or heavy dollar-denominated debt exposure are likely to benefit from a weaker dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citic Securities emphasizes the investment opportunities in emerging markets such as China and South Korea, particularly if the Federal Reserve unexpectedly lowers interest rates, which could lead to synchronized monetary easing between China and the U.S. [1] Group 1: A-shares - The A-share market is experiencing continuous warming, awaiting a catalyst for ignition [1] Group 2: Hong Kong Stocks - Hong Kong stocks still offer significant value for money, with ample liquidity present [1] Group 3: South Korean Market - The South Korean stock market is expected to maintain a positive trend due to policy support and anticipated liquidity injections [1] Group 4: Indian Market - The Indian stock market faces short-term constraints from high valuations, funding pressures, and earnings downgrades, with a focus on the IT and defensive sectors [1] Group 5: Japanese Market - The Japanese stock market is presented with opportunities due to governance reforms and external environmental resonance [1] Group 6: Southeast Asian Markets - Southeast Asian markets are seeing sustained capital inflows, with the Indonesian market showing medium to long-term investment value [1]

Group 1 - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose by 0.9%, reaching its highest level since early 2022 [1] - The Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF, valued at $87 billion, increased by 0.7% [1] - An index measuring the currencies of developing countries also saw an increase, with the Polish zloty and Hungarian forint leading the gains [1]

美国银行：欧洲股市连续第六周实现资金流入，新兴市场股市出现14周以来最大规模的资金外流。 ...