来源|财联社 在即将过去的2025年，得益于AI投资热潮以及宽松货币政策等因素，全球股市整体表现强劲，呈现出罕见的同步上涨态势，包括美股为在内的多国股 指创下历史新高。 2026年最好的投资机会在哪里？在这一点上，掌控着庞大资金且比普通人拥有更敏锐投资嗅觉的亿万富豪们的看法，或许可以成为风向标。 那么，亿万富豪们眼下将目光瞄向了何处？瑞银的一份最新报告给出了答案。 瑞银针对其亿万富豪客户的最新年度调查涵盖了多个主题，包括他们计划在未来12个月和五年内将资金投向何处。 放眼全球， 亿万富豪们对两个地区投资前景的乐观情绪大幅升温：中国和西欧 。 01 对北美市场乐观情绪大幅降温 与之相对的是， 亿万富豪们对北美市场的乐观情绪大幅降温。在2024 年的调查中，80%的受访者青睐北美市场，而2025年这一比例骤降至63% 。 亿万富豪们投资情绪的上述转向，源于对多重风险因素的担忧，其中关税问题首当其冲。 具体来看，40%的受访者表示，未来12个月看好西欧市场的投资机会，这一比例较2024年的18%大幅提升。此外， 34%的受访者表示，未来12个 月看好大中华市场的投资机会，同样远高于去年的 11% 。 值得注意的是， ...

在即将过去的2025年，得益于AI投资热潮以及宽松货币政策等因素，全球股市整体表现强劲，呈现出罕见的同步上涨态势，包括美股为在内的多国股指创 下历史新高。 2026年最好的投资机会在哪里？在这一点上，掌控着庞大资金且比普通人拥有更敏锐投资嗅觉的亿万富豪们的看法，或许可以成为风向标。 那么，亿万富豪们眼下将目光瞄向了何处？瑞银的一份最新报告给出了答案。 瑞银针对其亿万富豪客户的最新年度调查涵盖了多个主题，包括他们计划在未来12个月和五年内将资金投向何处。 放眼全球，亿万富豪们对两个地区投资前景的乐观情绪大幅升温：中国和西欧。 具体来看，40%的受访者表示，未来12个月看好西欧市场的投资机会，这一比例较2024年的18%大幅提升。此外，34%的受访者表示，未来12个月看好大中 华市场的投资机会，同样远高于去年的 11%。 值得注意的是，以未来5年的视野来看，受访者看好大中华市场的比例同样大幅上升，从2024年的31%升至2025年的48%。 瑞银报告还揭示了亿万富豪投资者计划将资金投入哪些领域。 未来12个月，私募股权市场，对冲基金、发达市场股市以及新兴市场股市最有可能迎来更多来自亿万富豪投资者的资金流入。 近一 ...

格隆汇12月11日｜过去一年新兴市场股市强劲反弹，而沙特股市却远远落后。投资者表示，预计明年情 况不会有太大改观。鉴于油价低迷且明年可能继续下跌，且大宗商品交易商托克集团预测将出现"超级 供过于求"，投资者认为买入沙特股票的理由不多。花旗集团分析师建议投资者减持沙特股票，并表示 这些股票在盈利增长和发展势头方面"表现不佳"。"沙特股票仍然缺乏吸引力，"瑞士宝盛银行新兴市场 股票策略师内纳德·迪尼克表示，"首先，沙特股市仍然与油价密切相关，而油价在2026年可能仍将疲 软；其次，与其他大多数新兴市场股票不同，沙特股市无法从美元走软中受益。"今年沙特证券交易所 综合指数已下跌11%，创下2015年以来的最大跌幅。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how the Federal Reserve's monetary policy impacts emerging market stock markets, categorizing the external macro environment into four scenarios that influence market performance [2][4]. Group 1: Scenarios of Emerging Market Stock Performance - Scenario 1: During global monetary policy switching periods (e.g., initial or final stages of rate hikes/cuts), market expectations regarding the Fed's stance (hawkish/dovish) are crucial, with emerging market economic strength being less significant [5][24]. - Scenario 2: In periods of stable rate hikes/cuts, the sensitivity of the market to monetary policy decreases, and the economic expectations of emerging markets compared to the U.S. become key factors [9][25]. - Scenario 3: During global economic recessions or when recession expectations exist, emerging markets generally perform poorly [13][54]. - Scenario 4: In times of excessive liquidity, emerging market stocks typically perform well [15][62]. Group 2: Historical Review of Emerging Market Stock Performance - The article reviews emerging market stock performance from 2008 to 2025, highlighting key periods and their corresponding MSCI Emerging Markets Index movements [23][26]. - For instance, from January 2008 to February 2009, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell by 59.9% due to the global financial crisis, while from February 2009 to April 2010, it rebounded by 92.6% during a period of excessive liquidity [26]. - The performance during the stable rate hike period from February 2016 to January 2018 saw a 69.0% increase in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, driven by improving global economic conditions [46][48]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Emerging Markets Post-September Rate Cut - Following the September rate cut, three potential macro scenarios for emerging markets are outlined: 1. Continued mild economic cooling with no inflation rise, allowing for a sustained rate cut cycle [73]. 2. A rapid economic recovery post-rate cut, leading to a potential shift back to a hawkish stance by the Fed, which could pressure emerging markets [73][76]. 3. Risks of stagflation due to fluctuating tariffs impacting inflation, which could lead to downturns in both emerging markets and U.S. stocks [73][76]. - The article suggests that the likelihood of scenario 2 is higher, indicating that the best time for emerging market stock performance may have passed, while U.S. stocks could remain strong [76].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Scenarios - The impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy on emerging market stocks can be categorized into four scenarios: global monetary policy switching period, stable rate increase/decrease period, global economic recession, and liquidity excess period[1] - In the global monetary policy switching period, market expectations regarding the Fed's hawkish/dovish stance are key, while emerging market economic strength has less impact[1] - During stable rate increase/decrease periods, the sensitivity to monetary policy decreases, and the economic expectations of emerging markets compared to the U.S. become crucial[1] Group 2: Historical Performance Analysis - Historical analysis from 2008 to 2025 shows that emerging market stocks have varied performance under different monetary policy conditions[2] - For instance, from January 2008 to February 2009, emerging markets fell by 59.9% during the financial crisis, while from February 2009 to April 2010, they rebounded by 92.6% in a liquidity excess period[2] - In the stable rate increase period from February 2016 to January 2018, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose by 69.0% as global manufacturing PMI improved[2] Group 3: Future Outlook Post-Rate Cut - Following the September rate cut, the macro environment is likely entering a monetary policy switching phase, which may exert downward pressure on emerging market stocks[1] - If the Fed's monetary policy expectations do not shift to rate hikes, emerging markets may still perform well despite potential rate cut reversals[1] - The report suggests that the most favorable time for emerging markets may have passed, similar to the period from September to December 2024[1]

Core Viewpoint - Emerging markets have outperformed US stocks this year primarily due to strong domestic retail investor participation rather than significant foreign capital inflows [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The performance of emerging markets is driven by local retail investors, despite downward adjustments in corporate profit expectations and concerns over potential US tariffs [1] - Investor focus has shifted towards popular sectors such as AI and technology, contributing to an overall optimistic market sentiment [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Attention should be paid to potential risks such as a slowdown in the US economy and global growth deceleration, alongside the positive effects of easing inflation and monetary policy outside the US [1] - If multiple cyclical factors align, including a faster US economic slowdown compared to other countries, declining real interest rates in the US, and a significant depreciation of the dollar, emerging markets are expected to outperform US stocks within the next 6 to 12 months [1] - This anticipated outperformance is viewed as cyclical rather than structural [1]

Group 1 - The three major indices opened slightly higher, with the energy and metal sectors leading the gains. As of the opening, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3637.05 points, up 0.05%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 11159.03 points, up 0.27%; and the ChiNext Index was at 2336.93 points, up 0.13% [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities believes that the A-share market continues to face certain resistance for short-term upward movement due to weaker-than-expected PPI, the expiration of tariff easing agreements, and completed valuation repairs leading to reduced trading volume. However, it is still considered to be in a bull market continuation phase, with pullbacks providing good allocation opportunities [2] - The firm notes that recent improvements in overseas conditions, potential changes in Federal Reserve personnel may raise market expectations for interest rate cuts, and a weakening dollar trend is favorable for emerging market stocks, particularly benefiting Hong Kong stocks [2] - Huaxi Securities highlights that the current market rally has multiple sources of incremental capital, including insurance, pension funds, public funds, private equity, and retail investors. Since the "924" market rally began, the negative scissors difference between M1 and M2 year-on-year growth has been narrowing, indicating increased capital activation and a marginal recovery in consumer and investment willingness [2] - The recent margin financing balance has reached a ten-year high, reflecting a continuous increase in risk appetite among individual investors. In the context of asset allocation scarcity, the bull market mentality is driving residents' asset allocation towards equity assets, which will be a significant driver for the current "slow bull" market [2] - The focus on the "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to be a key point for future market attention, with technology growth remaining a policy mainline for a considerable period [2]

Group 1 - The semiconductor sector is under pressure due to President Trump's threat to increase tariffs, leading to a decline in emerging market stocks, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index down by 0.2% primarily due to TSMC's stock drop [1] - TSMC's stock fell by 2.2%, marking its largest decline since June 23, following the arrest of six individuals for allegedly stealing trade secrets, raising concerns about national security vulnerabilities [3] - The overall sentiment in the chip industry is negative, compounded by Trump's announcement of impending tariffs on semiconductor imports and disappointing earnings reports from companies like Super Micro Computer and GlobalFoundries [3] Group 2 - Emerging market stocks are being reassessed after a seven-month rally, with geopolitical tensions and weak consumer economies contributing to the cautious outlook [1] - Indian bonds declined as the country became a target of Trump's harshest tariff measures, with the 10-year bond yield rising by 7 basis points to 6.40% [4] - The South African Rand and Mexican Peso showed resilience in the currency market, benefiting from expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent focus in the market is the narrowing of the AH share premium, with UBS indicating that unless there is a significant influx of additional liquidity into the A-shares, the AH premium will remain at its current low mid-range levels [1] Group 1: AH Share Premium Dynamics - UBS statistics show a high correlation coefficient of 0.83 between the AH share premium and the US dollar index over the past 15 years, suggesting that a weaker dollar typically leads to a narrower AH premium, indicating better performance of H-shares relative to A-shares [1] - The changes in the AH share price differential are largely influenced by the liquidity differences between onshore and offshore markets [1] Group 2: Impact of Dollar Fluctuations - During periods of a weaker dollar, global liquidity tends to improve, resulting in capital inflows into emerging markets, and vice versa [1] - Despite the narrowing premium, UBS believes that A-shares will still benefit moderately from a slight strengthening of the RMB against the USD when the dollar declines [1] Group 3: Emerging Market Performance - UBS estimates that over the past decade, a 10% decline in the US dollar index has led to a relative increase of 9% in emerging market equities [1] - From a profitability perspective, Chinese companies with significant costs tied to imports or heavy dollar-denominated debt exposure are likely to benefit from a weaker dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citic Securities emphasizes the investment opportunities in emerging markets such as China and South Korea, particularly if the Federal Reserve unexpectedly lowers interest rates, which could lead to synchronized monetary easing between China and the U.S. [1] Group 1: A-shares - The A-share market is experiencing continuous warming, awaiting a catalyst for ignition [1] Group 2: Hong Kong Stocks - Hong Kong stocks still offer significant value for money, with ample liquidity present [1] Group 3: South Korean Market - The South Korean stock market is expected to maintain a positive trend due to policy support and anticipated liquidity injections [1] Group 4: Indian Market - The Indian stock market faces short-term constraints from high valuations, funding pressures, and earnings downgrades, with a focus on the IT and defensive sectors [1] Group 5: Japanese Market - The Japanese stock market is presented with opportunities due to governance reforms and external environmental resonance [1] Group 6: Southeast Asian Markets - Southeast Asian markets are seeing sustained capital inflows, with the Indonesian market showing medium to long-term investment value [1]