Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how the Federal Reserve's monetary policy impacts emerging market stock markets, categorizing the external macro environment into four scenarios that influence market performance [2][4]. Group 1: Scenarios of Emerging Market Stock Performance - Scenario 1: During global monetary policy switching periods (e.g., initial or final stages of rate hikes/cuts), market expectations regarding the Fed's stance (hawkish/dovish) are crucial, with emerging market economic strength being less significant [5][24]. - Scenario 2: In periods of stable rate hikes/cuts, the sensitivity of the market to monetary policy decreases, and the economic expectations of emerging markets compared to the U.S. become key factors [9][25]. - Scenario 3: During global economic recessions or when recession expectations exist, emerging markets generally perform poorly [13][54]. - Scenario 4: In times of excessive liquidity, emerging market stocks typically perform well [15][62]. Group 2: Historical Review of Emerging Market Stock Performance - The article reviews emerging market stock performance from 2008 to 2025, highlighting key periods and their corresponding MSCI Emerging Markets Index movements [23][26]. - For instance, from January 2008 to February 2009, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell by 59.9% due to the global financial crisis, while from February 2009 to April 2010, it rebounded by 92.6% during a period of excessive liquidity [26]. - The performance during the stable rate hike period from February 2016 to January 2018 saw a 69.0% increase in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, driven by improving global economic conditions [46][48]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Emerging Markets Post-September Rate Cut - Following the September rate cut, three potential macro scenarios for emerging markets are outlined: 1. Continued mild economic cooling with no inflation rise, allowing for a sustained rate cut cycle [73]. 2. A rapid economic recovery post-rate cut, leading to a potential shift back to a hawkish stance by the Fed, which could pressure emerging markets [73][76]. 3. Risks of stagflation due to fluctuating tariffs impacting inflation, which could lead to downturns in both emerging markets and U.S. stocks [73][76]. - The article suggests that the likelihood of scenario 2 is higher, indicating that the best time for emerging market stock performance may have passed, while U.S. stocks could remain strong [76].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Scenarios - The impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy on emerging market stocks can be categorized into four scenarios: global monetary policy switching period, stable rate increase/decrease period, global economic recession, and liquidity excess period[1] - In the global monetary policy switching period, market expectations regarding the Fed's hawkish/dovish stance are key, while emerging market economic strength has less impact[1] - During stable rate increase/decrease periods, the sensitivity to monetary policy decreases, and the economic expectations of emerging markets compared to the U.S. become crucial[1] Group 2: Historical Performance Analysis - Historical analysis from 2008 to 2025 shows that emerging market stocks have varied performance under different monetary policy conditions[2] - For instance, from January 2008 to February 2009, emerging markets fell by 59.9% during the financial crisis, while from February 2009 to April 2010, they rebounded by 92.6% in a liquidity excess period[2] - In the stable rate increase period from February 2016 to January 2018, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose by 69.0% as global manufacturing PMI improved[2] Group 3: Future Outlook Post-Rate Cut - Following the September rate cut, the macro environment is likely entering a monetary policy switching phase, which may exert downward pressure on emerging market stocks[1] - If the Fed's monetary policy expectations do not shift to rate hikes, emerging markets may still perform well despite potential rate cut reversals[1] - The report suggests that the most favorable time for emerging markets may have passed, similar to the period from September to December 2024[1]

Core Viewpoint - Emerging markets have outperformed US stocks this year primarily due to strong domestic retail investor participation rather than significant foreign capital inflows [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The performance of emerging markets is driven by local retail investors, despite downward adjustments in corporate profit expectations and concerns over potential US tariffs [1] - Investor focus has shifted towards popular sectors such as AI and technology, contributing to an overall optimistic market sentiment [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Attention should be paid to potential risks such as a slowdown in the US economy and global growth deceleration, alongside the positive effects of easing inflation and monetary policy outside the US [1] - If multiple cyclical factors align, including a faster US economic slowdown compared to other countries, declining real interest rates in the US, and a significant depreciation of the dollar, emerging markets are expected to outperform US stocks within the next 6 to 12 months [1] - This anticipated outperformance is viewed as cyclical rather than structural [1]

中信建投（25.730，0.10，0.39%）认为，短期A股继续超预期上行面临一定阻力，PPI弱于预期、关税缓和协议到期与估值 修复完成带来的交易缩量，但我们认为A股仍处于牛市中继，回调带来配置良机。当前海外边际改善，美联储人事变动或提升 市场降息预期，美元走弱趋势利好新兴市场股市，其中港股相对更加受益。政策信号下，反内卷与宽信用有望促使价格低位温 和回升。近期行业轮动加速，建议关注新赛道低位细分品种。 华西证券（9.950，0.05，0.51%）认为，本轮行情增量资金来源众多，有保险、养老金、公募基金、私募基金等机构资 金，也有居民配置资金的入市。自"924"行情启动以来，我国M1-M2同比增速负剪刀差持续收窄，反映资金活化程度增强，居 民的消费和投资意愿出现边际回暖迹象。近期两融余额站上十年新高，反映个人投资者风险偏好正在持续回升。在资产配置荒 下，牛市思维正促进居民资产配置向权益类资产倾斜，居民增量资金入市将成为本轮"慢牛"行情的重要驱动，仍看好下半年A 股冲击2024年高点。风格上，"十五五"规划将成为后市聚焦点，科技成长仍将是未来较长一段时间的政策主线。 8月11日消息，三大指数小幅高开，能源金属板 ...

Group 1 - The semiconductor sector is under pressure due to President Trump's threat to increase tariffs, leading to a decline in emerging market stocks, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index down by 0.2% primarily due to TSMC's stock drop [1] - TSMC's stock fell by 2.2%, marking its largest decline since June 23, following the arrest of six individuals for allegedly stealing trade secrets, raising concerns about national security vulnerabilities [3] - The overall sentiment in the chip industry is negative, compounded by Trump's announcement of impending tariffs on semiconductor imports and disappointing earnings reports from companies like Super Micro Computer and GlobalFoundries [3] Group 2 - Emerging market stocks are being reassessed after a seven-month rally, with geopolitical tensions and weak consumer economies contributing to the cautious outlook [1] - Indian bonds declined as the country became a target of Trump's harshest tariff measures, with the 10-year bond yield rising by 7 basis points to 6.40% [4] - The South African Rand and Mexican Peso showed resilience in the currency market, benefiting from expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent focus in the market is the narrowing of the AH share premium, with UBS indicating that unless there is a significant influx of additional liquidity into the A-shares, the AH premium will remain at its current low mid-range levels [1] Group 1: AH Share Premium Dynamics - UBS statistics show a high correlation coefficient of 0.83 between the AH share premium and the US dollar index over the past 15 years, suggesting that a weaker dollar typically leads to a narrower AH premium, indicating better performance of H-shares relative to A-shares [1] - The changes in the AH share price differential are largely influenced by the liquidity differences between onshore and offshore markets [1] Group 2: Impact of Dollar Fluctuations - During periods of a weaker dollar, global liquidity tends to improve, resulting in capital inflows into emerging markets, and vice versa [1] - Despite the narrowing premium, UBS believes that A-shares will still benefit moderately from a slight strengthening of the RMB against the USD when the dollar declines [1] Group 3: Emerging Market Performance - UBS estimates that over the past decade, a 10% decline in the US dollar index has led to a relative increase of 9% in emerging market equities [1] - From a profitability perspective, Chinese companies with significant costs tied to imports or heavy dollar-denominated debt exposure are likely to benefit from a weaker dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citic Securities emphasizes the investment opportunities in emerging markets such as China and South Korea, particularly if the Federal Reserve unexpectedly lowers interest rates, which could lead to synchronized monetary easing between China and the U.S. [1] Group 1: A-shares - The A-share market is experiencing continuous warming, awaiting a catalyst for ignition [1] Group 2: Hong Kong Stocks - Hong Kong stocks still offer significant value for money, with ample liquidity present [1] Group 3: South Korean Market - The South Korean stock market is expected to maintain a positive trend due to policy support and anticipated liquidity injections [1] Group 4: Indian Market - The Indian stock market faces short-term constraints from high valuations, funding pressures, and earnings downgrades, with a focus on the IT and defensive sectors [1] Group 5: Japanese Market - The Japanese stock market is presented with opportunities due to governance reforms and external environmental resonance [1] Group 6: Southeast Asian Markets - Southeast Asian markets are seeing sustained capital inflows, with the Indonesian market showing medium to long-term investment value [1]

Group 1 - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose by 0.9%, reaching its highest level since early 2022 [1] - The Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF, valued at $87 billion, increased by 0.7% [1] - An index measuring the currencies of developing countries also saw an increase, with the Polish zloty and Hungarian forint leading the gains [1]

Group 1 - European stock markets have experienced inflows for the sixth consecutive week [1] - Emerging markets have seen the largest outflow of funds in 14 weeks [1]