Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Big Tech stocks, particularly Palantir Technologies and Nvidia, has led to significant losses in the broader market, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards technology stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Nasdaq-100 Index experienced a 1.4% drop, testing and breaching the 23,000 level before reclaiming it [2]. - The Invesco QQQ Trust faced a six-day losing streak, marking its longest slump in over three years [2]. Group 2: Historical Data Analysis - Historical data shows that after the last 11 instances of the QQQ experiencing six consecutive losses, it averaged an 8.1% gain three months later, with notable surges of 16.4% in August 2015 and 11.4% in February 2016 [6]. - The average returns following six-day losing streaks are 1.83% for one week, 2.48% for two weeks, 2.73% for one month, and 8.13% for three months, with a 100% positive return rate over three months [7]. Group 3: Short-term Outlook - The immediate outlook for the QQQ is less optimistic, with initial gains post-signal expected to be 2.7% or less, suggesting that quick returns may not be feasible for tech traders [9]. - A potential rebound could see the QQQ rise above $609, indicating a return to record high territory if historical trends hold true [9]. Group 4: Broader Economic Context - A dovish Federal Reserve and a potential tech bounce are contributing to upward movements in major indexes, although inflation data in the coming weeks may introduce volatility [10]. - The resilience of Big Tech will be crucial in determining whether the QQQ can achieve substantial gains by the three-month mark [10].

Market Performance - Wall Street experienced a mixed performance last week, with a slump in the middle driven by fears of an AI bubble and doubts over AI investments' substitutability, followed by a strong finish due to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's hints at a possible September rate cut [1][2] - On August 22, 2025, Wall Street rallied sharply after Powell suggested interest rates could be lowered soon, indicating a shift in the economic outlook that may warrant a change in monetary policy [2][3] - Traders' expectations for a September rate cut rose significantly, with the probability increasing to 91.5% by Friday afternoon, compared to 70% earlier that day and 85% a week prior, leading to a drop in treasury yields and a rise in stock prices [4] Index Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1.9% to a record high on August 22, 2025, while the S&P 500 rose by 1.5% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.9%. Overall, the S&P 500 gained 0.3% last week, the Dow Jones added over 1.5%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.6% [5] ETF Highlights - KraneShares SSE Star Market 50 Index ETF (KSTR) rose by 12.8% last week, focusing on the 50 largest companies on the SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board [7] - AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF (YOLO) increased by 12.5%, benefiting from potential reclassification of marijuana by President Trump [8] - ARK 21Shares Active Ethereum Futures Strategy ETF (ARKZ) gained 11.3%, with Ethereum leading digital asset gains [9] - Global X MSCI China Consumer Discretionary ETF (CHIQ) rose by 6.4%, driven by steady performance in Chinese e-commerce stocks and significant gains in auto stocks like NIO, which surged by 29% [10] - VanEck ChiNext ETF (CNXT) increased by 5.1%, attracting attention due to a sustained recovery in Chinese stocks and capital inflows [12]

Hello and welcome to Ask for a Trend. I'm Josh Lipton. For the next half hour, we are breaking down the trends of today that'll move stocks tomorrow.There's a lot to keep track of, so we're focusing on what you need to know to get ahead of the curve. Here's some of the trends we're going to be diving into. It was a sliding start for stocks at the beginning of the trading week.Investors seem to have maybe lost their zest after Jackson Hole and as they parse retail data and await Nvidia earnings at the end of ...

Market Perspective - Trillion-dollar companies are experiencing a 30% year-over-year profit growth, suggesting a strong market performance [1] - The assertion that an "AI bubble" is unlikely given the substantial profit growth of major companies [1] Industry Outlook - The AI industry is viewed positively, with those expressing doubt or negativity considered to be "on the wrong side of history" [1]

Company Overview - Nvidia is currently the largest market capitalized firm in the world, valued at $4.34 trillion, with a 7.6% weighting in the S&P 500 and 14.4% in the Nasdaq-100 [2][3] - Over the past two decades, Nvidia has generated an annualized total return of 39.7%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 10.8% return during the same period [3] Investment Performance - A $1,000 investment in Nvidia 20 years ago would be worth approximately $793,000 today, compared to $7,900 for the same investment in the S&P 500 [4] - Nvidia stock has shown notable post-earnings moves, averaging a 6.1% return the day after earnings reports [1] Recent Developments - Nvidia is reportedly developing a new chip, the B30A, aimed at the Chinese market, which could provide a new growth engine for the company [8][9] - Hedge funds were net buyers of Nvidia stock in Q2, with 82 hedge funds initiating new positions, indicating strong institutional interest [16] Earnings Expectations - Analysts expect Nvidia's upcoming earnings report to reflect strong demand, particularly due to the resumption of H20 shipments and increasing orders for GB300 infrastructure [12][22] - Stifel analyst raised Nvidia's price target to $212, citing the company's attractive valuation and leadership in AI infrastructure [11] Market Position and Competition - Nvidia's leadership in AI infrastructure remains unchallenged, although there are concerns regarding competition from companies like AMD and Broadcom [18][19] - The company faces potential regulatory challenges related to U.S. export restrictions, particularly concerning its operations in China [10][13] Dividend and Share Buybacks - Nvidia pays a small quarterly dividend of $0.01 per share, resulting in an annual yield of 0.02%, which is below the S&P 500's yield of 1.2% [20] - In fiscal 2025, Nvidia paid approximately $834 million in dividends and repurchased $33.7 billion in stock [21] Upcoming Events - Nvidia will release its fiscal second-quarter earnings report on August 27, 2025, followed by a conference call [25]

Group 1 - The parent company of Google, Alphabet, is currently trading at its all-time high, which is not attributed to an AI bubble [1] - The analysis emphasizes a value-oriented approach to investment, suggesting that valuation is more indicative of long-term opportunities or risks rather than short- to mid-term timing [1] - The article aims to provide informative content rather than making specific investment decisions, often rating stocks as hold/neutral even when the inclination may be bullish or bearish [1] Group 2 - The author has a beneficial long position in GOOGL shares, indicating confidence in the stock's performance [2] - The article reflects the author's personal opinions and is not influenced by compensation from any company mentioned [2]

Core Viewpoint - Palantir's stock is experiencing short-term losses, with a significant increase in insider selling as executives seek to lock in profits [1][7]. Insider Trading Activity - Insiders have sold approximately $2.73 billion worth of stock over the past 12 months, while only purchasing $1.16 million, indicating a selling ratio of more than 2,350 times the value of shares bought [1][2]. - Recent transactions include Shyam Sankar selling 30,000 shares for nearly $4.8 million, CEO Alexander Karp selling 186,194 shares for about $29 million, and CFO David Glazer selling 8,047 shares worth $1.25 million [5][6]. Stock Performance - Palantir's stock has struggled to maintain momentum towards the $200 mark, with a recent weekly decline of almost 10%, despite a year-to-date increase of 111% [9]. - At the last close, shares gained 1.6% to finish at $158.74, but bearish calls have emerged, including a warning from Citron Research that the stock could fall to $40 [9][10]. Market Sentiment - The lack of insider buying suggests that executives view current prices as an opportunity to realize gains rather than to increase their exposure, which may lead to investor skepticism [7]. - Concerns are growing about the sustainability of AI stock valuations, with comparisons made to Databricks and warnings about potential bubbles in the sector [9][10].

Market Analysis & Economic Indicators - Discussion of Jerome Powell's recent comments and their implications [1] - Analysis of PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) and its significance as an economic indicator [1] - Examination of the accuracy of job data [1] - Consideration of whether Powell should cut 50 bps (basis points) [1] Investment & Asset Classes - Reasons why Bitcoin is not currently increasing in value [1] - Assessment of the AI bubble [1] - Observation that MAG7 (Magnificent Seven) stocks have become cheaper [1] Risks & Opportunities - Identification of current risks in the market [1] - OpenDoor's adoption of AI [1] Inflation - How to measure inflation with AI boom [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in AI stocks, including major players like Palantir, Nvidia, and Amazon, is attributed to over-expectations and a recalibration of investor sentiment, although AI adoption within enterprises continues to grow [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The S&P 500 Information Technology Index has decreased by 1.50% over the past week, influenced by volatility in AI stocks [1]. - An 800-point rise in the Dow Jones Index followed a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, suggesting a potential Fed rate cut due to a weak jobs outlook [1]. - U.S. companies have invested $109 billion in AI from 2013 to 2024, indicating significant long-term commitment despite current market fluctuations [4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Opportunities - Investors are currently experiencing a pullback in AI stocks, but this is viewed as a healthy correction, allowing for potential buying opportunities at discounted prices [3][5]. - A recent MIT study revealed that 95% of generative AI pilots are not yielding measurable results, raising concerns about the overvaluation of AI stocks [6]. - The ongoing correction in AI stocks is seen as an opportunity for Main Street investors to enter the market at lower prices [5]. Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - **Palo Alto Networks**: Year-to-date performance is 2.38%, with a strong focus on cybersecurity, which is considered more critical than AI by many CTOs. The company has seen a 25% year-over-year increase in earnings per share [9][10]. - **Nvidia**: Year-to-date performance is 32.6%, with a significant 69% year-over-year revenue growth. It is recommended to buy if the stock dips below $174.50 [11][12]. - **Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)**: Year-to-date performance is 38.9%, with expected earnings of $1.17 per share for the current quarter, reflecting a 27.2% year-over-year increase. AMD is viewed as a viable alternative to Nvidia, despite being a distant second in the GPU market [13][14].

Market Overview - The S&P 500 has experienced its longest losing streak of 2025, dropping for five consecutive trading days, marking the first such decline this year [1] - The index declined 1.5% over the past five sessions, driven by selling in major tech stocks due to concerns over an AI bubble and overvaluation [2] Economic Indicators - The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has decreased, with the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicating a 73.6% chance of a quarter-point reduction, down from 92.1% a week prior [3] Inverse ETFs Performance - The market sell-off has led to a rally in inverse single-stock ETFs, which are designed to deliver the opposite daily return of specific stocks [3] - Several inverse single-stock ETFs have shown significant gains over the past week, including: - Defiance Daily Target 2X Short PLTR ETF (PLTZ) – Up 30.6% [5] - Defiance Daily Target 2X Short MSTR ETF (SMST) – Up 25.1% [6] - Defiance Daily Target 2X Short IONQ ETF (IONZ) – Up 19.4% [7] - GraniteShares 2x Short COIN Daily ETF (CONI) – Up 16% [8] - Defiance Daily Target 2X Short SMCI ETF (SMCZ) – Up 15.7% [9] Company Earnings Impact - Disappointing earnings reports from major retailers like Target and Walmart have contributed to the market downturn [2]