Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long position recommended, ★★★ [1] - Silver: Long position recommended, ★★ [1] - Copper: Hold long positions, ★★ [1] - Zinc: Sell on rallies, ★ [1] - Lead: Under pressure, ★ [1] - Tin: Under pressure, ★ [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure, ★ [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound, ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish, ★★★ [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bearish, ★ [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver: Multiple risk factors have pushed gold to a new all - time high. Long - term gold is expected to benefit from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [2] - Copper: It has broken through the 80,000 - yuan mark. In the long - term, it is favored due to tight copper concentrate supply and the explosion of green copper demand [1][5] - Zinc: Macro and sector sentiment are positive, but domestic demand is weak, inventory is piling up, and there is a policy vacuum. In the long - term, supply will increase while demand decreases [1][8] - Aluminum: As the peak season approaches, the price has rebounded, but there are still constraints on the supply and demand side [9][11] - Nickel: Supply pressure persists, and the price rebounds and then falls [13][15] - Lithium carbonate: Wait for a new driving force, and the price is in a wide - range shock [17][19] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Review - Factors such as interest - rate cut expectations, tariff disputes, and doubts about the Fed's independence have boosted gold, with foreign gold hitting a new all - time high [2] Basic Logic - US data has weakened, with a decline in construction spending and a contraction in the manufacturing index. There is a stand - off between the White House and the Fed, and Trump's tariffs have been ruled illegal. In the long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, etc. [2] Strategy Recommendation - Gold has support around 800 in the short - term, and pay attention to the performance around the recent high of 838. Silver has support around 9530. Long - term upward trend remains unchanged [3] Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper has strengthened and broken through the 80,000 - yuan mark, and London copper has reached the $10,000 mark [5] Industry Logic - Copper concentrate supply is tight, and production may decline in September. With the arrival of the peak season, demand will pick up, and domestic inventory is at a relatively low level [5] Strategy Recommendation - Hold existing long positions, and new entrants can try long positions on pullbacks. Enterprises can wait for high - level opportunities for selling hedging. In the long - term, be bullish on copper [6] Zinc Market Review - London zinc has strengthened, and Shanghai zinc has followed slightly [8] Industry Logic - Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025, processing fees are rising, and smelter enthusiasm is high. Domestic inventory is piling up, and overseas inventory is decreasing [8] Strategy Recommendation - Temporarily wait and see in the short - term, and sell on rallies in the long - term [8] Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum price has rebounded, while alumina is relatively weak [10] Industry Logic - There are obvious expectations of interest - rate cuts overseas. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production is increasing slightly, and inventory is piling up. Alumina supply is abundant, and demand is expected to be loose in the short - term [11] Strategy Recommendation - Try long positions on dips in the short - term, paying attention to the changes in the downstream processing enterprises' operating rate [12] Nickel Market Review - Nickel price has rebounded from a low level, and stainless steel has also rebounded [14] Industry Logic - There are expectations of interest - rate cuts overseas. Political instability in Indonesia has raised concerns about nickel ore supply. Domestic refined nickel supply is excessive, and stainless steel inventory is gradually decreasing [15] Strategy Recommendation - Take profits and wait and see, paying attention to downstream inventory changes [16] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 opened lower and closed lower, with an intraday decline of more than 4% [18] Industry Logic - Rumors of CATL's resumption of production have eased supply concerns. Production remains high, and demand is picking up, with inventory declining for three consecutive weeks [19] Strategy Recommendation - Wait and see, waiting for the price to stabilize in the range of [71300 - 74500] [20]

2023年8月25日深夜，美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普在其创立的社交媒体平台\"真实社交\"上发表了一封极具火药味的公开声明。这份措辞强硬的声明中，特朗 普援引美国宪法第二条和1913年《联邦储备法》的具体条款，宣布立即解除美联储理事莉萨·库克的职务。声明指控库克在2021年申请两笔住房贷款时存在 \"虚报主要住所\"的行为，涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈，并称其行为\"令人难以置信\"，已经完全丧失了作为金融监管者的公信力。 在您开始阅读本文之前，衷心感谢您点击\"关注\"按钮。您的每一次互动不仅为我们的讨论创造了宝贵空间，也为内容传播提供了重要支持，这份参与感让 我们倍感珍惜！ 美联储在此事件中的态度颇为耐人寻味。对外，该机构拒绝就库克的身份问题发表评论，仅表示将严格遵守法院最终判决；但在内部运作中，仍将库克视为 在任理事对待。这种\"制度性缄默\"既体现了对法律的尊重，也是一种不动声色的抵抗，在司法裁决前以实际行为维护着机构的完整性。 值得注意的是，特朗普对库克的指控明显带有精心设计的政治色彩。法律专家普遍认为，这类房产纠纷通常只会通过民事和解方式解决，甚至可能只是简单 的\"文书填写失误\"。然而特朗普却刻意将其升级为 ...

美债被看空！ 日前，澳大利亚第二大养老基金透露，已减持美国债券，主要是担心华盛顿的政策可能引发通胀。该基 金管理着3300亿澳元（2160亿美元）的资产。 当地时间9月2日，美国国债跌势扩大，30年期国债收益率逼近5%。截至记者发稿，美国10年期国债收 益率上涨7个基点至4.2984%；30年期国债收益率上涨6.7个基点至4.9883%。 Temple表示，随着长期市场利率上升，债券市场在传递这样的信号："这不是我们所期待的。我们想要 的是一个独立的美联储。" 美股也有隐忧 与此同时，对冲基金对美股也保持谨慎。有数据显示，对冲基金并未参与美股8月的上涨，反而持续卖 出。 周二，美股三大指数集体下跌，纳指盘中一度跌近2%。截至收盘，道指跌0.55%，纳指跌0.82%，标普 500指数跌0.69%。大型科技股多数下跌，英伟达跌近2%，亚马逊、苹果、特斯拉跌超1%。中国资产逆 市上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.52%，理想汽车涨超4%，蔚来涨超3%，阿里巴巴涨2.63%。 卖出美债 澳大利亚第二大养老基金——澳大利亚退休信托基金（ART）对美国国债的看法日益悲观。近日，该基 金的高级投资组合经理Jimmy Lou ...

Group 1 - The Australian Retirement Trust (ART), the second-largest pension fund in Australia, has reduced its holdings in U.S. bonds due to concerns that Washington's policies may trigger inflation. The fund manages assets worth 330 billion AUD (approximately 216 billion USD) [1][4] - As of September 2, U.S. Treasury yields have risen, with the 10-year yield increasing by 7 basis points to 4.2984% and the 30-year yield rising by 6.7 basis points to 4.9883% [1] - ART's senior investment manager, Jimmy Louca, indicated that the fund is favoring investments in markets like the UK and Australia, citing concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit and potential inflationary pressures from increased government spending [4] Group 2 - Hedge funds have maintained a cautious stance towards U.S. equities, with data showing they did not participate in the market's rise in August and continued to sell off positions [2][6] - On September 2, major U.S. stock indices experienced declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.55%, Nasdaq down 0.82%, and S&P 500 down 0.69%. Notably, large tech stocks like Nvidia and Amazon also saw declines [2] - Historical data indicates that nearly half of the years in the past 20 have shown negative returns for the U.S. stock market in September, raising concerns about potential sell-offs [8] Group 3 - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have increased following President Trump's pressure on the institution, leading to a widening gap between the yields of 5-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries, reaching the highest level since 2021 [5] - UBS reported that the current direct stock holdings of U.S. investors relative to their income have reached a historical high, with projections indicating that by 2025, this ratio could reach 265% of disposable income [9]

Core Viewpoint - Recent surge in gold prices, with London spot gold surpassing $3500 per ounce and COMEX gold futures reaching $3599.5 per ounce, marking historical highs [1][2] Group 1: Price Movement and Trends - Gold prices have increased by 5% since August, achieving the best performance since April [1] - Year-to-date, COMEX gold has risen by 36% [1] - After a four-month period of consolidation, gold prices resumed their upward trend in late August, breaking previous highs [2] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The primary driver of the recent gold price increase is the changing expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with a 90% probability of a rate cut in September [3] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4] - Global geopolitical instability has also contributed to the rising demand for gold [5] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The structural weakening of the U.S. dollar credit system, exacerbated by rising government debt, is expected to support gold's long-term value [6] - As of August 12, U.S. national debt exceeded $37 trillion, significantly outpacing previous forecasts [6] - Central banks, including China's, are increasing their gold reserves, indicating a sustained bullish outlook for gold [7] Group 4: Investment Vehicles - Investors interested in gold can consider the Gold ETF (518800), which directly corresponds to physical gold holdings [8] - The Gold ETF has seen significant inflows, with its scale exceeding $17.2 billion and growing by nearly $10 billion this year [9]

Group 1 - Good Products' acquisition case has entered the acceptance stage, with Wuhan Yangtze International Trade Group acquiring 29.99% of Good Products' shares [6][7] - Bawang Tea has officially entered the Philippine market, opening three stores in key business districts and selling over 23,000 cups in the first three days [8] - Nestlé's CEO was dismissed due to a romantic relationship with a subordinate, which violated the company's code of conduct [3] Group 2 - Yushun Technology plans to submit an IPO application to the Chinese stock exchange between October and December 2025, with quadruped and humanoid robots expected to account for 65% and 30% of sales in 2024, respectively [2] - Tencent responded to a lawsuit from miHoYo, stating it will comply with legal regulations regarding user data requests [6] - The fast delivery industry is experiencing a price increase in core areas, driven by a national "anti-involution" policy aimed at improving profitability [11] Group 3 - The current spot gold price has surpassed $3,500 per ounce, marking a historical high with a year-to-date increase of over 33% [11] - The U.S. stock market saw all three major indices decline, while many Chinese concept stocks experienced gains [12] - Google was ruled not to divest its Chrome and Android systems in an antitrust case, but must share data with competitors [13] Group 4 - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced a visa-free policy for Russian passport holders from September 15, 2025, to September 14, 2026 [5] - WeChat's customer service clarified that inactive accounts may be reclaimed by the system after one year of inactivity, leading to the loss of all associated data [4] - The company "Sina" announced the resignation of its CEO due to an investigation into the purchase of illegal health products [16] Group 5 - Companies such as Jiadou Technology and XGIMI Technology are planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance competitiveness and international presence [17][19] - "Si Ai Ran Medical" completed a financing round exceeding 100 million yuan to advance its ophthalmic medical device product line [22] - "Lai Mu Technology" secured several million yuan in Series A financing to enhance its smart lawnmower product development and market expansion [24]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the New South Wales Treasury Corporation's significant reduction of USD exposure has yielded substantial returns, preparing for a further decline in the USD exchange rate, reinforcing the logic of a long-term USD bear market [1][2] - The Treasury Corporation has reduced its USD weight in its foreign exchange investment portfolio from nearly 75% to approximately 14%, indicating a strategic shift towards defensive currencies like JPY, CHF, and EUR [1] - The Chief Investment Officer, Stuart Brentnall, anticipates a further 10% decline in the USD, highlighting the impact of U.S. policy uncertainty and potential Fed rate cuts on the currency's performance [1][3] Group 2 - The recent strategy shift has resulted in a 2% increase in investment returns over the past year, with unhedged positions outperforming hedged ones by about 7% [2] - Analysts expect the USD to continue its downward trajectory, with an anticipated 8% decline for the remainder of the year, reflecting ongoing economic slowdown and Fed rate cut preparations [3] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, exacerbated by political tensions, are eroding the USD's safe-haven status, leading to increased demand for alternative assets like gold and silver [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - Nearly 600 economists have signed an open letter warning that Trump's attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook threatens the independence of the U.S. financial system and undermines public trust in the Federal Reserve [1][2] Group 1: Economists' Concerns - The open letter emphasizes that credible economic policy relies on a trustworthy monetary authority, which in turn depends on the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - The signatories include notable economists such as Nobel laureates Joseph Stiglitz and Paul Romer, as well as former White House economic advisors [1] - Economists argue that Trump's actions are based on unverified allegations, which jeopardize the fundamental principle of central bank independence and erode public trust in a key U.S. institution [2][3] Group 2: Trump's Actions and Implications - Trump has been pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower borrowing costs and has previously suggested removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell over alleged mismanagement of a renovation project [2] - If Trump successfully removes Cook, he could appoint a new governor, thereby exerting more direct influence over the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [2] - The White House claims that the president has legal justification for removing Cook, asserting that it enhances the credibility and accountability of the Federal Reserve [2] Group 3: Legal Proceedings - Cook has filed a lawsuit seeking to prevent her removal, arguing that the accusations against her are baseless and merely a pretext [3] - A hearing was held regarding Cook's request for a temporary restraining order, but no decision has been made yet [3]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has surged past the psychological barrier of $3500 per ounce, reaching a historical high of $3508.73, driven by multiple favorable factors and underlying market tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Price Increase - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is high, with nearly a 90% probability for a September cut, supported by dovish signals from Fed officials [3]. - A weak US dollar has made gold more attractive globally, as it becomes cheaper for investors holding other currencies, thus boosting demand [5]. - Rising geopolitical tensions and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have heightened market risk aversion, leading investors to turn to gold as a traditional safe-haven asset [5]. Group 2: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - Technical analysis indicates that gold has formed a bullish "ascending triangle" pattern, suggesting potential for further price increases, with key resistance levels at $3490-$3500 and support at $3460-$3450 [7]. - Major institutions like Goldman Sachs are optimistic, predicting gold prices could reach $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025, attracting more investor interest [7]. - However, some analysts caution about potential short-term technical corrections, noting a divergence in trading volume that may indicate underlying risks [7]. Group 3: Upcoming Market Events - The gold market may experience significant volatility in the coming days, particularly with the upcoming court ruling on President Trump's dismissal of a Fed official, which is seen as a critical test of the Fed's independence [8]. - The release of the US non-farm payroll report could provide further evidence of labor market weakness, potentially reinforcing the case for a Fed rate cut and impacting gold prices [8].

亚洲交易时段周二（9月2日），现货黄金突破3500美元关口，最高触及3504.5美元/盎司，日内涨幅约 0.8%，再度刷新历史纪录。 金价延续上周2.3%的涨势，分析师认为，市场对美联储独立性及政策稳定性的担忧叠加降息预期，推 动投资者加码避险资产。 上周五，美国联邦法院就总统特朗普解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）一案举行紧急听证，但未 作出即时裁决，法官表示至少要推迟至本周二再做决定。这一案件被视为美联储独立性的历史性考验。 市场人士普遍认为，如果美联储决策受制于政治压力，政策框架稳定性将被削弱，美元与美债的吸引力 受损，间接利好黄金。 "金价上涨反映出市场对制度稳定的忧虑。"盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管奥勒·汉森（Ole Hansen）表 示，"黄金延续上周五的强劲涨势，主要受到美国通胀持续走高、消费者情绪疲软、降息预期以及对美 联储独立性的担忧等因素支撑。" 与此同时，美国上诉法院在另一案件中裁定大多数特朗普关税非法，政策不确定性进一步加剧。分析人 士认为，贸易规则的摇摆放大了市场的不安情绪，投资者寻求避险资产作为对冲。 美国经济数据同样为金价提供支持。上周五公布的数据显示，美国7月个人消费支 ...