Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is deemed "crucial" by Kevin Warsh, a candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Warsh emphasizes the importance of independent operation in monetary policy execution, indicating that historical evidence supports this view [1] - Despite advocating for the independence of the Federal Reserve, Warsh notes that this does not imply complete independence in all matters [1] - Warsh, who served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011, consistently supported hawkish interest rate policies aimed at addressing inflation risks; however, he now advocates for interest rate cuts, aligning with President Trump's stance [1] - President Trump is considering nominations for Warsh's potential successor after Chairman Powell's term ends in May of next year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh, a leading candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, argues that the central bank's reluctance to lower interest rates is damaging its credibility, and he supports President Trump's push for policy easing [1] Group 1 - Warsh believes the Federal Reserve is facing a "credibility crisis" [1] - He emphasizes that continuity is the least needed aspect for the U.S. central bank [1] - Warsh criticizes the focus on DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) and "fully inclusive employment" as significant errors [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve is at a "transformational moment" in economic history [1] - There is a strong belief that the Federal Reserve should not continue with business as usual [1] - The Federal Reserve is facing a "credibility crisis" [1] Group 2 - There is a firm conviction in the independence of the Federal Reserve [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rumors of Trump potentially firing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell have sparked significant market reactions and discussions regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and the credibility of the U.S. dollar [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Independence - The Federal Reserve's independence is crucial for the stability of the U.S. financial system and global capital markets, as political interference could lead to rapid market reactions and volatility in assets like the dollar and U.S. Treasuries [1][2]. - The relationship between the Federal Reserve and the market is built on a foundation of independence and transparency, with the Fed focusing on stabilizing inflation and achieving full employment [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions to Potential Dismissal - The potential dismissal of Powell is seen as a move to pressure the Federal Reserve into accelerating interest rate cuts, which could lower U.S. Treasury yields and stimulate the economy [3][4]. - If Powell were to be dismissed, it could lead to a significant loss of confidence in the reliability of the dollar and U.S. Treasuries, potentially resulting in a large-scale sell-off of these assets [4][6]. Group 3: Long-term Implications - While the short-term effects of such a dismissal might lower short-term interest rates, the long-term consequences could undermine the foundational credibility of the dollar and lead to a shift towards alternative safe-haven assets like gold [4][7]. - The overall sentiment suggests that any political intervention in the Federal Reserve's operations could severely damage market trust and the integrity of the dollar credit system [6][7].

杜明表示，"因故"条款从未被挑战过，是一个法律黑洞。 美国总统特朗普对美联储主席鲍威尔的持续施压再次引发市场动荡，并引发人们对未来会发生什么的各 种猜测。 可以肯定的是，若成真，此举在美国历史上尚属首次，可能会引发具有里程碑意义的诉讼，该诉讼将牵 动白宫和华尔街。 此言暗指美联储总部翻新工程的成本超支问题。特朗普及其盟友一直将此作为解雇鲍威尔的依据之一。 当地时间16日，有报道称特朗普预计将很快对鲍威尔采取行动，后者因未听从其降低利率的呼吁而成为 特朗普的攻击目标。 不过，特朗普对这些报道予以反驳，称鲍威尔的解职"极不可能，除非他因'欺诈'而不得不离开"。 根据《联邦储备法》第10条，美联储理事会成员可以"因故"被解职。 而成本超支是否构成此类不当行为，将是法院需要裁决的新问题。 英国杜伦大学法学院副院长、跨国法教授兼全球政策研究所联合主任杜明教授对第一财经记者表示，所 谓"因故"这类条款的设立，主要目的是保护美联储职位的独立性，不能行政部门看美联储官员不满意就 能任意解雇，而"因故"可以届时由法院再从严解释，例如滥用职权或贪赃枉法等。 届时，本着"谁主张，谁举证原则"，需要"特朗普方面举证。"杜明补充道。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the market's reaction to rumors about President Trump's potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, highlighting concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and its implications for financial markets [1][2][10]. Market Reaction - Following the rumors, U.S. stocks and the dollar fell sharply, while short-term Treasury bonds rose as investors speculated that a new chair would align with presidential preferences for interest rate cuts [4][7]. - The two-year Treasury yield dropped by as much as 8 basis points, and the ten-year yield fell by 5 basis points. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index shifted from a 0.2% increase to a 0.7% decline, while the S&P 500 index reversed from a 0.3% gain to a 0.7% loss [7]. Implications of the Incident - The incident raised questions about whether the market's reaction served as a warning to the Trump administration against taking impulsive actions or if it encouraged further bold moves, suggesting that the acceptable window for such actions has widened [6][9]. - Analysts noted that the mere discussion of dismissing Powell could have damaging effects on the perception of the Federal Reserve's independence, which is a cornerstone of the U.S. financial system [10][11]. Investor Sentiment - Market participants expressed deep concerns, viewing the situation as a credible threat to the Federal Reserve's autonomy. This sentiment was echoed by various financial experts who emphasized the potential negative consequences of political interference in central banking [11][12]. - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's independence is expected to lead to lower market confidence, increased pricing for rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and higher term premiums in the coming months [13]. Conclusion - The article illustrates the fragility of market confidence in the face of political maneuvering, with seasoned traders indicating that navigating such headlines can be challenging, leading some to adopt a wait-and-see approach [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock, currency, and bond markets experienced significant declines due to President Trump's consideration of removing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, although Trump later stated he does not intend to do so [1][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Trump's initial comments about potentially dismissing Powell, major U.S. stock indices fell, the dollar index dropped, and U.S. Treasury yields rose [5]. - After Trump denied the reports and stated that he does not plan to take action against Powell, U.S. Treasury yields fell, and the major stock indices closed higher, although the dollar index slightly decreased [7]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence - Several leaders in the U.S. banking sector publicly emphasized the importance of maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve for the stability of the U.S. economy and financial system [6]. - Trump's discussions about Powell's potential dismissal included references to past issues, such as the renovation project of the Federal Reserve's headquarters, which has been criticized for alleged excessive spending [8][9]. Group 3: Powell's Position and Future - Powell, who was appointed by Trump in 2017 and reappointed under President Biden, is expected to complete his term, which ends on May 15 of the following year [15]. - Trump has criticized the current interest rate set by the Federal Reserve, suggesting it should be lowered, while Powell has indicated that the Fed will take a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments [15][16].

Group 1 - President Trump has publicly criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell multiple times, indicating dissatisfaction with his performance and suggesting the possibility of dismissal [1][3] - Trump's economic advisor Hassett claimed that the President has the authority to fire Powell, citing mismanagement of a renovation project that saw costs rise from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion [1] - Powell defended the renovation as necessary for safety and emphasized the constitutional protection of the Federal Reserve's independence [1] Group 2 - Trump has not planned to fire Powell but retains the option, criticizing Powell for not lowering interest rates [3] - Current economic data does not support a rate cut, and Trump's tariffs are causing price increases in consumer goods, which could lead to inflation exceeding 5% by 2026 [3] - The Federal Reserve prioritizes stabilizing the U.S. economy and the dollar over political pressures, as yielding to such pressures could undermine its credibility [5] Group 3 - Powell's resistance to political pressure is seen as a defense of professional rationality against short-sighted political demands [8] - Trump's motivation for requesting rate cuts is to reduce interest payments on the national debt of $36 trillion, which could create a false economic prosperity ahead of midterm elections [8] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for global economic stability, and any political interference could lead to significant financial repercussions [8]

智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普对鲍威尔持续施加的压力再次搅动市场，引发各界对这位四面楚歌 的美联储主席若遭解职后局势的猜测。 此举在美国史上尚无先例，几乎注定会引发一场牵动华盛顿与华尔街的标志性诉讼，并最终由美国最高 法院裁决。 7月16日的最新动荡源于媒体报道称特朗普拟对鲍威尔采取行动。这位美联储主席因无视特朗普的降息 呼吁长期遭其针对。特朗普随即否认报道，称鲍威尔被撤职"可能性极低，除非他因'欺诈'必须离 职"——此处指向美联储总部装修超支问题。特朗普及其盟友正聚焦此事，试图以此作为"正当理由"解 雇鲍威尔。根据《联邦储备法》第10条规定，美联储理事会成员(含主席)可因"正当理由"被免职。 装修超支是否构成免职理由将成为司法新命题。 如果特朗普解雇鲍威尔，后续可能如何发展? 案件关键争议点是什么? 案件核心将取决于特朗普的指控理由。如果特朗普以"正当理由"指控鲍威尔管理翻修工程不善，案件可 能聚焦于项目细节及超支决策责任人。 法律界对"正当理由"的界定通常包含三种情形：效率低下、玩忽职守、职务不当行为。但一个多世纪前 国会提出的这些术语至今无明确定义。法官需根据双方论证，判定鲍威尔在工程超支中的角色是 ...

金十整理：鲍威尔走人是万能解药？机构齐声怒怼特朗普，"动了鲍威尔美元就完了！" 2. 盛宝银行：如果新任美联储主席与特朗普串通一气，不顾通胀压力执意压低短期利率，长期而言对美 元是有害的。 或严重打击美元 3. 德意志银行：若鲍威尔被撤换，贸易加权美元将在24小时内暴跌3%-4%，固定收益市场将出现30-40 个基点的抛售。 1. 意大利地区性银行Cassa Lombarda：若特朗普真的解雇鲍威尔，必将动摇美元作为全球储备货币的可 靠性。 4. Monex集团：若特朗普或其政府试图以任何形式损害美联储的独立性和权威性，对美元来说绝对是极 其负面的事情。 5. "债王"格罗斯：关键不在于撤换鲍威尔的时机，而在于继任者人选。若新主席能逐步影响FOMC决 策，美元会走弱。 6. 荷兰国际银行：如果特朗普再提解雇鲍威尔，美元将遭遇更大规模的抛售。美联储的独立性是美元作 为第一大储备货币地位的基础。 7. 三菱日联：若特朗普解雇鲍威尔，将严重打击投资者对美元的信心。即便日后其解雇鲍威尔的决定被 法院驳回，美元信心受损的影响也是持久的。 其他观点 1. 摩根大通：美联储的持续独立性绝对关键，干预美联储决策往往会产生不利 ...