Core Viewpoint - The international gold and silver prices experienced significant volatility at the beginning of 2026, with a sharp decline following a substantial increase prior to January 29, raising concerns about underlying liquidity risks in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent drop in gold and silver prices was not due to changes in structural support factors but rather driven by high anxiety, month-end funding structures, profit-taking fears, and market panic triggered by price fluctuations [1]. - The U.S. government's policy direction remains unchanged, and the likelihood of gradual interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, along with ongoing global de-dollarization and central bank purchases of gold and silver, has provided some support against the downward trend [1][2]. Group 2: Price Predictions and Risks - Given the short-term price drop exceeding historical levels and the lack of new supportive events for gold prices, there is a high probability that international gold and silver prices will repeat the consolidation patterns observed in early, mid, and late 2025 [2]. - If liquidity risks escalate without new geopolitical conflicts to bolster safe-haven demand, the downward pressure on gold and silver prices could increase, with gold potentially testing levels below $4,400 per ounce and silver possibly dropping to $50-$60 per ounce, representing a decline of 20%-30% [3]. Group 3: Emotional and Behavioral Factors - The interconnectedness of all assets means that significant declines in the stock market could lead to forced selling of profitable assets, including gold and silver, to meet margin calls, highlighting the core of liquidity risk [2]. - Historical instances of "contagion effects" have shown that significant declines in the stock market can lead to sharp drops in gold and silver prices, as seen during the early pandemic and the 2008 financial crisis [3].

Group 1 - Senior market strategist Mike McGlone suggests that while there is a possibility for international gold prices to reach $6000 per ounce, it is more likely that they will test the support level of $4000 per ounce [1] - McGlone predicts that international silver prices could drop to $50 per ounce, indicating a bearish outlook for precious metals [1] - The significant rise in gold and silver prices in January signals that 2026 may be a year of declining prices, with the market entering a peak retracement phase [1] Group 2 - Contrary to McGlone's views, analysts from the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce forecast that the average international gold price could rise to $6000 per ounce this year, significantly higher than the previous prediction of $4500 per ounce for October 2025 [3] - The bank anticipates that the average price of international silver will be $105 per ounce this year and will increase to $120 per ounce next year, driven by persistent safe-haven demand [3] - The uncertainty in geopolitical situations is expected to continue supporting safe-haven demand, while a weakening US dollar will also be a crucial factor in driving international gold prices upward [3]

白银70-71美元击穿后，目前5月均线66-67美元也暂时刺破，目前64美元止跌(期待B浪反弹)，日内不破 看涨。意外下破，则接下来重点是60-62美元，然后56-55美元和前期历史双顶50-49美元。 沃伦问道："部长先生，您能否在此刻就承诺，如果凯文.沃什不完全按照唐纳德.特朗普想要的方式降 息，特朗普提名的美联储候选人凯文.沃什就不会被起诉，也不会受到司法部的调查？" 贝森特回避了这个问题，回答说："这取决于总统。" 【最新国际白银行情解析】 今日周五(2月6日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于70.85一线上方，今日开盘于70.50美元/盎司，截至发 稿，国际白银暂报71.76美元/盎司，上涨1.29%，最高触及72.07美元/盎司，最低下探63.99美元/盎司， 目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 在参议院金融稳定监督委员会周四(2月5日)举行的听证会上，民主党参议员就不断上涨的消费者物价以 及特朗普试图影响美国独立央行——美联储的明显举动，对贝森特进行了追问，加剧了对美联储独立性 和通胀的担忧。 参议员伊丽莎白.沃伦直接就该报告质问贝森特，要求他承诺，如果沃什不按特朗普的意愿降息， ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant volatility in silver prices, primarily driven by speculative funds rather than fundamental changes in physical demand [3] - Analysts indicate that the accumulation of leveraged positions, the amplification effect of options trading, and the flow of speculative funds are key factors driving price fluctuations, detaching the market from fundamentals [3] - A senior expert emphasizes that a large number of speculative positions have not been fully cleared, suggesting that the market may face further adjustments in the short term [3] Group 2 - Recent trading saw silver prices drop after failing to break the critical resistance level of $90.00, leading to increased selling pressure [4] - The decline occurred under a prevailing short-term bearish correction trend, exacerbated by the failure to maintain above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and negative signals from the Relative Strength Index (RSI) [4] - Unless prices stabilize above the current support level, there is a tendency for further weakness in the market [4] Group 3 - Economic data released shows that January ADP employment figures revealed only 22,000 new jobs in the private sector, significantly below the market expectation of 48,000 and lower than the revised previous value of 41,000, indicating a slowdown in the labor market [3] - The ISM services index remained stable at 53.8, slightly above the expected 53.5, indicating continued expansion in the services sector, but highlighting structural disparities in economic growth [3] - Overall, the combination of hawkish Federal Reserve policies and strong dollar expectations, alongside mixed economic data, supports a short-term upward trend for the dollar, although weak employment growth may limit its long-term strength [3]

Group 1 - International silver is currently trading below $84.50, with a recent opening at $88.14 per ounce and a current price of $82.53, reflecting a decline of 6.40% [1] - The highest price reached today was $90.41, while the lowest was $80.49, indicating a bearish short-term trend for silver [1] - If silver prices break above $90.00, the next key resistance level will be $95.00, followed by $100.00, with potential to reach the January 30 high of $118.47, close to the historical peak of $121.66 [2] Group 2 - If silver falls below $85.00, the first support level will be $84.00, followed by the February 4 low of $83.28, with further declines exposing the 50-day simple moving average at $77.01 [2] - A drop below $83.00 could lead silver prices to retreat towards the support levels of $78.00 to $79.00 [2] Group 3 - Cook emphasized the importance of maintaining the Federal Reserve's credibility in controlling inflation, especially after nearly five years of inflation above target levels [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 3.5% to 3.75% aligns with Cook's cautious outlook, as she believes the risks are skewed towards higher inflation [1] - Other policymakers share this cautious perspective, with indications of three consecutive rate cuts by the end of 2025, while the Fed has raised its assessments of the economy and labor market, suggesting no need for further rate cuts at this time [1]

Core Viewpoint - The manual adjustment of the net asset value (NAV) of the silver LOF by Guotou Ruijin Fund, which saw a drastic drop of 31.5%, has sparked widespread controversy and dissatisfaction among investors, highlighting the need for an automatic mechanism to handle extreme market conditions [1][2][3] Group 1: Fund Management and NAV Adjustment - On February 2, Guotou Ruijin Fund announced a manual NAV adjustment in response to significant fluctuations in the international silver market, leading to a NAV of 2.2494 yuan, a drop of 31.5% in one day [1] - The silver LOF continued to experience a trading halt on February 3, with a halt price of 4.25 yuan still reflecting an 88.9% premium over the latest NAV [1] - Investors expressed concerns over the large adjustment, the perceived double standards in NAV calculation, and the disconnect between the fund's NAV and its underlying asset, which is based on domestic silver rather than international silver [1][2] Group 2: Risk Management and Response Mechanisms - The fund management's decision to adjust the NAV was seen as a necessary but reactive measure due to the extreme volatility in the silver market, where international silver prices dropped over 30% on January 30 [2] - The inability to restrict investor redemptions while maintaining a high NAV could lead to liquidity issues and significant losses for remaining investors [2] - Historical data indicates that silver has experienced extreme price drops before, suggesting that fund managers should have established automatic mechanisms to handle such volatility rather than relying on manual adjustments [3] Group 3: Recommendations for Future Mechanisms - Implementing automatic mechanisms, such as redemption suspension clauses during extreme market conditions, could help mitigate the impact of concentrated redemptions and avoid disputes over NAV adjustments [3][4] - Establishing predefined conditions for NAV adjustments based on significant deviations between domestic and international silver prices could enhance transparency and fairness in the valuation process [4]

在上行方面，银价或在88.00美元区域遇到阻力。若突破此处，将把焦点转向100.00美元的整数关口和 104.00美元区域的日内阻力。 支撑位在71.37美元的月低点，低于此处为12月初的高点和12月中旬的低点，位于60.00美元区域。 米兰表示："我可能希望看到年内降息略高于一个百分点。"米兰是在特朗普宣布选择凯文.沃什担任美 联储新主席之后发表这番言论的，他对沃什上任后表现充满期待。 此外米兰还表示，对金属市场价格波动不作过多解读。 目前据CME"美联储观察"：美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为8.9%，维持利率不变的概率为91.1%。 美联储到4月累计降息25个基点的概率为22.5%，维持利率不变的概率为76.0%，累计降息50个基点的概 率为1.5%。到6月累计降息25个基点的概率为46%。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 今日周三(2月4日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于87.40一线上方，今日开盘于84.75美元/盎司，截至发 稿，国际白银暂报87.71美元/盎司，上涨3.10%，最高触及88.24美元/盎司，最低下探83.22美元/盎司， 目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 美联储理 ...

Group 1 - International silver is currently trading below $75.84, having opened at $80.27 per ounce and reported a decline of 14.37% to $72.49 per ounce, with a high of $87.91 and a low of $72.05 during the session, indicating a bearish short-term trend [1] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for silver has significantly dropped, suggesting a potential further correction, with the daily RSI falling below 50, indicating weak short-term momentum [4] - Key support levels for silver are identified at $77.60 and $69.50, while resistance levels are at $88.15 and $94.00, indicating a range-bound market unless a breakout occurs [4] Group 2 - Senator Elizabeth Warren expressed concerns regarding Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, questioning his ability to operate independently from the White House [3] - Warren urged Republican senators to delay Warsh's nomination until the Justice Department concludes its investigation into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, emphasizing the importance of Fed independence [3]

今日周一(2月2日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于80.41一线上方，今日开盘于80.27美元/盎司，截至发稿，国际白银暂 报80.40美元/盎司，上涨5.00%，最高触及87.91美元/盎司，最低下探78.75美元/盎司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏 向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 86岁的哈梅内伊(Ayatollah Ali Khamenei)上周日在国家电视台播出的公开讲话中表示："我们不想攻击任何国家。但对 于任何心怀野心、想要攻击并试图造成伤害的人，伊朗人民将予以强力回击。" 数周以来不断升级的紧张局势已将伊朗和美国推向冲突边缘。此前，美国总统特朗普于一月发出威胁，称可能因伊朗 对针对经济和生活条件恶化的抗议活动实施致命打压而发动攻击。 由于价格稳固在50日EMA之上，回调将会在该动态支撑附近遇到初步需求。RSI低于50限制了近期的上行空间；若突破 中线将改善动能。如果动能稳定，买方可能会尝试延续反弹，而未能重新加速将使交易保持在一定范围内。 特朗普随后下令美军增兵，包括向中东部署一个航母打击群。此番施压行动的公开目标是说服伊朗谈判一项新的核协 议——尽管特朗普曾表示美军在去年六月的打击已摧毁了德黑兰的核 ...

Group 1 - The international silver price is currently trading above $81.82, with a recent high of $87.91 and a low of $78.93, indicating a short-term bullish trend despite a 1.74% decline to $83.16 [1] - Recent three-party talks involving Russia, Ukraine, and the United States in Abu Dhabi suggest a significant policy shift from Russia, incorporating the U.S. into the negotiation process [1] - The potential agreement may involve Ukraine relinquishing control over parts of Donbas in exchange for U.S. security guarantees and NATO military presence, which could lead to a reduction in conflict risk and negatively impact safe-haven assets like silver [1] Group 2 - Silver prices have broken through two short-term retracement zones and a steep upward trend line, with key support focusing on Fibonacci retracement levels and moving average confluence [2] - The 50% retracement level from the recent price increase corresponds to $83.61, with the daily low touching $83.06, indicating a slight breach of this support level [2] - The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $74.63, along with the 50-day moving average at $74.55, forms a stronger support zone, viewed as a more favorable reference point for potential rebounds [2]