Core Viewpoint - The international gold and silver prices experienced significant volatility at the beginning of 2026, with a sharp decline following a substantial increase prior to January 29, raising concerns about underlying liquidity risks in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent drop in gold and silver prices was not due to changes in structural support factors but rather driven by high anxiety, month-end funding structures, profit-taking fears, and market panic triggered by price fluctuations [1]. - The U.S. government's policy direction remains unchanged, and the likelihood of gradual interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, along with ongoing global de-dollarization and central bank purchases of gold and silver, has provided some support against the downward trend [1][2]. Group 2: Price Predictions and Risks - Given the short-term price drop exceeding historical levels and the lack of new supportive events for gold prices, there is a high probability that international gold and silver prices will repeat the consolidation patterns observed in early, mid, and late 2025 [2]. - If liquidity risks escalate without new geopolitical conflicts to bolster safe-haven demand, the downward pressure on gold and silver prices could increase, with gold potentially testing levels below $4,400 per ounce and silver possibly dropping to $50-$60 per ounce, representing a decline of 20%-30% [3]. Group 3: Emotional and Behavioral Factors - The interconnectedness of all assets means that significant declines in the stock market could lead to forced selling of profitable assets, including gold and silver, to meet margin calls, highlighting the core of liquidity risk [2]. - Historical instances of "contagion effects" have shown that significant declines in the stock market can lead to sharp drops in gold and silver prices, as seen during the early pandemic and the 2008 financial crisis [3].

Group 1 - Senior market strategist Mike McGlone suggests that while there is a possibility for international gold prices to reach $6000 per ounce, it is more likely that they will test the support level of $4000 per ounce [1] - McGlone predicts that international silver prices could drop to $50 per ounce, indicating a bearish outlook for precious metals [1] - The significant rise in gold and silver prices in January signals that 2026 may be a year of declining prices, with the market entering a peak retracement phase [1] Group 2 - Contrary to McGlone's views, analysts from the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce forecast that the average international gold price could rise to $6000 per ounce this year, significantly higher than the previous prediction of $4500 per ounce for October 2025 [3] - The bank anticipates that the average price of international silver will be $105 per ounce this year and will increase to $120 per ounce next year, driven by persistent safe-haven demand [3] - The uncertainty in geopolitical situations is expected to continue supporting safe-haven demand, while a weakening US dollar will also be a crucial factor in driving international gold prices upward [3]

Group 1 - International silver is currently trading above $70.85, with an opening price of $70.50 per ounce and a current price of $71.76, reflecting a 1.29% increase. The highest price reached was $72.07, while the lowest was $63.99, indicating a short-term bullish trend in the silver market [1] - During a Senate hearing on February 5, concerns were raised regarding rising consumer prices and President Trump's attempts to influence the Federal Reserve's independence. Senator Elizabeth Warren questioned the nominee Kevin Warsh's potential legal repercussions if he does not lower interest rates as per Trump's wishes [2] - The silver market analysis indicates that after breaking through the $70-$71 range, the 5-month moving average of $66-$67 has also been temporarily breached. A support level at $64 is noted, with expectations for a potential rebound. If a downward breach occurs, key levels to watch are $60-$62, followed by $56-$55, and historical resistance at $50-$49 [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant volatility in silver prices, primarily driven by speculative funds rather than fundamental changes in physical demand [3] - Analysts indicate that the accumulation of leveraged positions, the amplification effect of options trading, and the flow of speculative funds are key factors driving price fluctuations, detaching the market from fundamentals [3] - A senior expert emphasizes that a large number of speculative positions have not been fully cleared, suggesting that the market may face further adjustments in the short term [3] Group 2 - Recent trading saw silver prices drop after failing to break the critical resistance level of $90.00, leading to increased selling pressure [4] - The decline occurred under a prevailing short-term bearish correction trend, exacerbated by the failure to maintain above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and negative signals from the Relative Strength Index (RSI) [4] - Unless prices stabilize above the current support level, there is a tendency for further weakness in the market [4] Group 3 - Economic data released shows that January ADP employment figures revealed only 22,000 new jobs in the private sector, significantly below the market expectation of 48,000 and lower than the revised previous value of 41,000, indicating a slowdown in the labor market [3] - The ISM services index remained stable at 53.8, slightly above the expected 53.5, indicating continued expansion in the services sector, but highlighting structural disparities in economic growth [3] - Overall, the combination of hawkish Federal Reserve policies and strong dollar expectations, alongside mixed economic data, supports a short-term upward trend for the dollar, although weak employment growth may limit its long-term strength [3]

Group 1 - International silver is currently trading below $84.50, with a recent opening at $88.14 per ounce and a current price of $82.53, reflecting a decline of 6.40% [1] - The highest price reached today was $90.41, while the lowest was $80.49, indicating a bearish short-term trend for silver [1] - If silver prices break above $90.00, the next key resistance level will be $95.00, followed by $100.00, with potential to reach the January 30 high of $118.47, close to the historical peak of $121.66 [2] Group 2 - If silver falls below $85.00, the first support level will be $84.00, followed by the February 4 low of $83.28, with further declines exposing the 50-day simple moving average at $77.01 [2] - A drop below $83.00 could lead silver prices to retreat towards the support levels of $78.00 to $79.00 [2] Group 3 - Cook emphasized the importance of maintaining the Federal Reserve's credibility in controlling inflation, especially after nearly five years of inflation above target levels [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 3.5% to 3.75% aligns with Cook's cautious outlook, as she believes the risks are skewed towards higher inflation [1] - Other policymakers share this cautious perspective, with indications of three consecutive rate cuts by the end of 2025, while the Fed has raised its assessments of the economy and labor market, suggesting no need for further rate cuts at this time [1]

Core Viewpoint - The manual adjustment of the net asset value (NAV) of the silver LOF by Guotou Ruijin Fund, which saw a drastic drop of 31.5%, has sparked widespread controversy and dissatisfaction among investors, highlighting the need for an automatic mechanism to handle extreme market conditions [1][2][3] Group 1: Fund Management and NAV Adjustment - On February 2, Guotou Ruijin Fund announced a manual NAV adjustment in response to significant fluctuations in the international silver market, leading to a NAV of 2.2494 yuan, a drop of 31.5% in one day [1] - The silver LOF continued to experience a trading halt on February 3, with a halt price of 4.25 yuan still reflecting an 88.9% premium over the latest NAV [1] - Investors expressed concerns over the large adjustment, the perceived double standards in NAV calculation, and the disconnect between the fund's NAV and its underlying asset, which is based on domestic silver rather than international silver [1][2] Group 2: Risk Management and Response Mechanisms - The fund management's decision to adjust the NAV was seen as a necessary but reactive measure due to the extreme volatility in the silver market, where international silver prices dropped over 30% on January 30 [2] - The inability to restrict investor redemptions while maintaining a high NAV could lead to liquidity issues and significant losses for remaining investors [2] - Historical data indicates that silver has experienced extreme price drops before, suggesting that fund managers should have established automatic mechanisms to handle such volatility rather than relying on manual adjustments [3] Group 3: Recommendations for Future Mechanisms - Implementing automatic mechanisms, such as redemption suspension clauses during extreme market conditions, could help mitigate the impact of concentrated redemptions and avoid disputes over NAV adjustments [3][4] - Establishing predefined conditions for NAV adjustments based on significant deviations between domestic and international silver prices could enhance transparency and fairness in the valuation process [4]

Group 1 - International silver is currently trading above $87.40, with an opening price of $84.75 per ounce and a current price of $87.71, reflecting a 3.10% increase. The highest price reached was $88.24, while the lowest was $83.22, indicating a short-term bearish trend in the silver market [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan emphasized the need for aggressive interest rate cuts this year, suggesting a reduction of about one percentage point. He expressed optimism about the performance of Kevin Walsh, the newly appointed Fed Chair [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by March is 8.9%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 91.1%. By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 22.5%, with a 76.0% chance of no change [1] Group 2 - Silver prices may encounter resistance around the $88.00 level, and if this level is breached, attention will shift towards the $100.00 and $104.00 resistance areas [2] - The support level is identified at $71.37, with further support below this level at the December highs and mid-December lows, located around the $60.00 area [3]

Group 1 - International silver is currently trading below $75.84, having opened at $80.27 per ounce and reported a decline of 14.37% to $72.49 per ounce, with a high of $87.91 and a low of $72.05 during the session, indicating a bearish short-term trend [1] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for silver has significantly dropped, suggesting a potential further correction, with the daily RSI falling below 50, indicating weak short-term momentum [4] - Key support levels for silver are identified at $77.60 and $69.50, while resistance levels are at $88.15 and $94.00, indicating a range-bound market unless a breakout occurs [4] Group 2 - Senator Elizabeth Warren expressed concerns regarding Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, questioning his ability to operate independently from the White House [3] - Warren urged Republican senators to delay Warsh's nomination until the Justice Department concludes its investigation into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, emphasizing the importance of Fed independence [3]

Group 1 - International silver is currently trading above $80.41, with an opening price of $80.27 per ounce and a reported increase of 5.00% [1] - The highest price reached was $87.91 per ounce, while the lowest was $78.75 per ounce, indicating a short-term bearish trend [1] - The daily chart shows silver prices trading at $81.38, maintaining above the rising 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $79.50, which supports a broader upward trend [5] Group 2 - The relative strength index (RSI) is at 44, reflecting weakened momentum after being in the overbought range [5] - If prices remain above the EMA, it may attract buyers, while closing below it could expose downside risks [5] - The RSI below 50 limits recent upward potential, and a breakthrough of the midline could improve momentum [5]

Group 1 - The international silver price is currently trading above $81.82, with a recent high of $87.91 and a low of $78.93, indicating a short-term bullish trend despite a 1.74% decline to $83.16 [1] - Recent three-party talks involving Russia, Ukraine, and the United States in Abu Dhabi suggest a significant policy shift from Russia, incorporating the U.S. into the negotiation process [1] - The potential agreement may involve Ukraine relinquishing control over parts of Donbas in exchange for U.S. security guarantees and NATO military presence, which could lead to a reduction in conflict risk and negatively impact safe-haven assets like silver [1] Group 2 - Silver prices have broken through two short-term retracement zones and a steep upward trend line, with key support focusing on Fibonacci retracement levels and moving average confluence [2] - The 50% retracement level from the recent price increase corresponds to $83.61, with the daily low touching $83.06, indicating a slight breach of this support level [2] - The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $74.63, along with the 50-day moving average at $74.55, forms a stronger support zone, viewed as a more favorable reference point for potential rebounds [2]