Core Viewpoint - The U.S. President Trump stated that the deadline for the tariff agreement on July 9 can be extended or shortened, indicating flexibility in negotiations [1] Group 1 - The potential for extending or shortening the tariff agreement deadline suggests ongoing discussions and possible changes in trade policy [1]

Domestic News - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges plan to adjust the price fluctuation limit for risk-warning stocks on the main board to 10% [1] - The State Council, chaired by Li Qiang, reviewed the implementation of the national science and technology conference spirit and approved the draft of the Rural Road Regulations [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is strictly investigating financial fraud cases and will hold accomplices accountable for the first time [1] - The People's Bank of China held its second-quarter meeting on June 23, suggesting an increase in the intensity of monetary policy regulation and a flexible approach to policy implementation based on economic and financial market conditions [1] - The National Internet Information Office released the third edition of the "Data Export Security Assessment Declaration Guidelines," clarifying the conditions and processes for extending the validity of data export security assessment results [1] - The 12th round of negotiations for the second phase of the China-South Korea Free Trade Agreement took place in South Korea from June 23 to 27, with positive progress made on cross-border service trade, investment, financial services, and negative list market access [1] - Li Auto expects to deliver approximately 108,000 vehicles in the second quarter of 2025, down from its previous delivery outlook of 123,000 to 128,000 vehicles [1] International News - Russia plans to reduce military spending, indicating potential shifts in defense-related industries [2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices both reached new highs, reflecting strong performance in the U.S. stock market [2] - The EU and the U.S. are confident in reaching a tariff agreement before the July deadline, which could impact trade-related sectors [2] - Bessent indicated that trade negotiations may conclude before September, suggesting a possible extension of the negotiation deadline [2] - Federal Reserve's Kashkari anticipates two interest rate cuts starting in September, with tariff impacts potentially delaying further cuts [2] - U.S. consumer spending unexpectedly declined in May, while inflation showed a moderate increase, leading traders to increase bets on three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 [2]

市场消息：欧盟和美国有信心在7月最后期限前达成关税协议。 ...

欧元兑美元维持0.2%的涨幅，报1.1720。欧盟和美国相信，他们能赶在7月截止日期之前达成关税协 议。 ...

Group 1 - The potential non-farm employment growth in the U.S. is expected to decline significantly from over 100,000 jobs per month to less than 10,000 by the end of next year, leading to a reduction in the potential economic growth rate from slightly above 2% to 1.4-1.6% [1] - The average monthly job creation in the private sector over the past two years has been approximately 172,000, indicating a stark contrast with the anticipated future potential growth [1] - The Bank of Japan's bond purchase plan lacks long-term guidance, creating ongoing market uncertainty regarding the scale of bond purchases post-April 2027 [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's economic projections reveal the highest level of divergence in interest rate paths for 2025 in the past decade, with a median expectation of two rate cuts (50 basis points) but a range from no cuts to a 75 basis point reduction [2] - The disparity between the most common and second most common predictions for interest rate changes has reached 50 basis points, the largest difference in ten years, indicating fundamental disagreements among policymakers on balancing inflation control and economic growth [2] - Despite downgrades in the U.S. credit rating by major agencies, foreign investment in U.S. Treasury bonds remains strong due to the lack of reliable alternatives and the relatively high yields offered [2] Group 3 - Key factors influencing the global market include the potential for tariff agreements among countries, fluctuations in the dollar's exchange rate, and rising risks associated with the U.S. deficit [3] - There is an expectation that major countries may reach partial consensus on tariff issues and extend grace periods while implementing specific industry tariff measures [3] - The U.S. deficit risk is anticipated to rise, which may keep U.S. Treasury yields between 4% and 5% [3]

韩国产业通商资源部：美国与韩国贸易部长重申致力于早日达成关税协议。 ...

日本首相石破茂：不能为了仓促达成关税协议而损害日本的国家利益。 ...

Group 1 - The meeting between Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and U.S. President Trump is scheduled for June 16 (Japan time June 17) in Canada, focusing on tariff adjustments [1][2] - This will be the first meeting between the two leaders since Ishiba's visit to Washington in February and Trump's proposal for reciprocal tariff measures in April [2] - Japan is seeking a comprehensive adjustment of U.S. tariff measures, including those related to automobiles, steel, aluminum, and reciprocal tariffs [2] Group 2 - Both countries are coordinating efforts to reach an agreement during the G7 summit in Canada, where the two leaders will be present [2] - Japan has proposed expanding investments in the U.S. and enhancing cooperation to address challenges from China, including collaboration on rare earth resource supply security [2]

德国总理默茨：我们也必须在G7会议上讨论经济事务，大多数与会者关注关税方面的协议。 ...

Energy - China's rare earth exports in May reached 5,864.6 tons, an increase from 4,784.8 tons in April, with total exports from January to May amounting to 24,827.0 tons [1] - In May, China imported 36.04 million tons of coal and lignite, down from 37.82 million tons in April [3] Trade Situation - In the first five months of this year, China's goods trade imports and exports grew by 2.5% year-on-year, with trade value with the United States declining by 8.1% [2] - U.S. companies are requesting a reduction in tariffs on imports from Vietnam [2] - Japan is considering reaching a tariff agreement with the U.S. ahead of the G7 summit on June 15 [2] Oil and Gas - The Venezuelan government plans to increase oil prices by 50% [3] - OPEC+ quota increases have not yet led to a surge in production, according to Morgan Stanley [3] - Slovakia's Prime Minister stated that if EU sanctions against Russia harm Slovakia's national interests, the country will not support them [3]