固定收益专题报告 2026 年 02 月 12 日 全球主要经济体的央行已将二级市场买卖国债作为流动性与利率调控工核 心具。美联储以国债为核心资产，构建了覆盖全曲线的资产负债表调控框 架。中国央行正加快推进国债买卖常态化操作，推动货币政策工具升级、利 率调控效能提升。本报告通过比较分析中美操作模式与逻辑的异同，对未 来工具运用和政策路径进行了展望。 美联储资产配置以国债为核心，全曲线购买，紧密联动货币政策。主体上， 美联储的国债买卖操作主要由纽约联邦储备银行执行。结构上，美联储持 有的证券资产以国债为主，持有国债占比约三分之二左右，其中中长期国 债占比达 55%；非国债占比稳步提升。期限结构上覆盖全曲线，久期配置 均衡，兼顾短期流动性调控与长期利率预期稳定。操作上，美联储以买入并 持到期为主，卖出较为有限。国债操作与货币政策周期高度联动，可精准调 控市场流动性。降息周期加大国债买入、扩表投放流动性；加息周期则减少 购债、缩表回收流动性。 我国央行国债买卖操作仍处渐进发展阶段。对标主要发达国家，我国央行 持有国债的规模、期限、操作目标和功能定位上都存在显著差异。规模上， 2025 年我国央行持有国债占其总资产比 ...

北京商报讯（记者 刘四红）临近春节，人民银行大额逆回购操作引发关注。根据人民银行2月3日官网公告，2月4日，中国人民银行以固定数量、利率招 标、多重价位中标方式开展8000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（91天）。 综合来看，2月中长期流动性合计到期15000亿元，其中3个月期、6个月期买断式逆回购到期规模分别为7000亿元、5000亿元，中期借贷便利（MLF）到期 规模为3000亿元。而2月4日人民银行在开展8000亿元买断式逆回购操作后，实现净投放1000亿元。 在业内看来，在当月7000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购到期的背景下，实现加量续作1000亿元，此举释放出较为明确的稳中期流动性信号。 "这是对潜在中期流动性压力的前瞻性对冲。"正如联储证券研究院副院长沈夏宜告诉北京商报记者，一方面，当前政策仍维持积极基调，政府债发行节奏明 显前置，1月国债累计发行规模超过1.2万亿元，较去年同期增加约2000亿元，对银行体系形成一定"抽水效应"。同时，前期新型政策性金融工具投放完成 后，一季度配套贷款加快落地，也将同步推升资金需求。在这一背景下，人民银行通过买断式逆回购补充中期流动性，有助于提前缓释可能出现的阶段 ...

"当前，逆回购、MLF、国债买卖等保障日常的流动性供给，SLF可向有需要的银行提供临时的流 动性支持，各类再贷款对应结构性的流动性供给。总体看，我国流动性工具体系已较为完整，基本覆盖 了国际通行的流动性工具范围。"业内人士表示，"这套相互配合、各有侧重的立体化工具体系，有力保 障了流动性的充裕，充分体现了我国货币政策调控的专业性与有效性，为经济高质量发展营造了适宜的 流动性环境。" 对于下一步政策思路，董希淼预计，2月份仍然是银行信贷投放较为集中的月份，叠加春节之前取 现因素影响，市场对流动性需求增加。他分析认为，央行已经建立起了一套流动性管理工具"组合拳"， 预计可通过各种工具的配合使用，有效应对财政税收、政府债券发行等短期波动，保持货币市场运行整 体平稳，短端货币市场利率围绕政策利率中枢小幅波动，银行体系流动性保持充裕。 中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，1月份国债净买入规模1000亿元，1月份央行买断式逆回购加上 MLF净投放规模达到1万亿元，流动性整体稳中偏松。2月份，资金面临跨节和现金扰动双重压力，预 计后续可能综合运用多种工具，保持流动性充裕。 2月3日，中国人民银行官网公布，为保持银行体系流动性充裕 ...

Monetary Policy Insights - The discussion around the establishment of a new price-based overnight tool by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) is driven by the need to enhance guidance on overnight market interest rates[1] - The transition from quantity-based to price-based monetary policy aims to strengthen the role of interest rate signals[1] - The current monetary policy in China is characterized by a balance of quantity and price, with the 7-day reverse repo rate serving as the short-term policy rate[2] Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 3.80% year-on-year[3] - Retail sales have shown a modest increase of 0.90% year-on-year[3] - Exports have increased by 6.60% year-on-year, indicating some resilience in external demand[3] Market Trends - The overnight interest rates have shown increased volatility, often approaching the upper and lower bounds of the current interest rate corridor[1] - The banking system in China has not yet formed a "sufficient reserve system," which is crucial for effective price-based monetary control[2] - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, with both new and second-hand home transactions increasing, although inventory pressure remains high with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 127.8, a historical high[40][41] Risks and Challenges - There are significant uncertainties in overseas markets that could impact domestic economic stability[2] - The overall economic recovery is still hindered by weak production, insufficient consumer demand, and high inventory levels, indicating that a comprehensive recovery will take time[13]

Monetary Policy Insights - The discussion on whether the People's Bank of China (PBOC) should create new price-based overnight tools is driven by the need to enhance guidance on overnight market rates and the recent volatility in interbank overnight rates[1] - The PBOC is currently in a phase of balancing both quantity and price in its monetary policy, with the 7-day reverse repo rate serving as the short-term policy rate[2] - The effectiveness of a price-based framework in China hinges on the establishment of an "ample reserve system," which has not yet been fully realized[2] Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 3.80% year-on-year[3] - Retail sales have shown a modest increase of 0.90% year-on-year[3] - Exports have increased by 6.60% year-on-year, indicating some resilience in external demand[3] Market Trends - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, with both new and second-hand home transactions increasing, although inventory pressure remains high with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 127.8, a historical high[40] - The logistics data indicates a year-on-year increase of 12.2% in commercial activity, reflecting a recovery in consumer demand despite a 70.1% decline in movie box office revenues[20] - The port cargo throughput has decreased by 1.70% month-on-month but increased by 6.87% year-on-year, influenced by seasonal factors[23] Fiscal and Monetary Developments - The broad deficit issuance is expected to increase, with net financing of government bonds projected at 1,420 billion and new special bonds at 3,024 billion in the upcoming week[32] - The willingness to leverage in the bond market remains high, with the balance of bonds awaiting repurchase still above historical levels[38]

【重点关注】 ·十四届全国人大四次会议将于2026年3月5日在京召开 ·央行面向个人推出信用修复政策政策"免申即享" 设置三个月宽限期 ·两部门发布《鼓励外商投资产业目录（2025年版）》 鼓励引导外商投资先进制造业、现代服务业 ·全国住房城乡建设工作会议：推动收购存量商品房用作保障性住房、安置房、宿舍、人才房等 ·商务部回应安世半导体问题：督促企业尽快通过协商解决内部纠纷 ·财政部表示明年将扩大财政支出盘子 ·市场监管总局对充电宝等高风险产品实施CCC认证标志试点改革将新增追溯二维码 ·北京调整优化购房政策放宽非京籍及多子女家庭购房限制 【国内要闻】 ·全国人大常委会会议12月27日表决通过了关于召开十四届全国人大四次会议的决定。根据决定，十四 届全国人大四次会议于2026年3月5日在北京召开。政协第十四届全国委员会日前召开主席会议，建议全 国政协十四届四次会议于2026年3月4日在北京召开。 ·中央企业负责人会议12月22日至23日在京召开。中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理李强出席会议并讲 话。李强指出，中央企业要在推进重大基础设施建设中提供强力保障，加快传统基础设施更新和数智化 改造，适度超前开展新型基础 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Thursday saw slight fluctuations in the freight index (European line) futures prices, with the main contract EC2602 closing up 0.13% and far - month contracts showing varying performances from - 1% to 1%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1589.20, up 78.64 points from the previous week, a 5.2% week - on - week increase. The SCFI rebounded for the second consecutive week, rising 46.46 points to 1552.92, a 3.08% increase. With shipping companies achieving full loads, it drove the futures prices up. China's manufacturing PMI in November showed a slight recovery, and the new export order index rose to 47.9, indicating a pre - Christmas recovery in terminal transportation demand. - The geopolitical situation in the Red Sea has a better expectation of resuming navigation. The eurozone economy continues to show a warming trend, and Germany's service industry has a strong recovery. The overall eurozone economy is expected to maintain its relative strength since the third quarter. - The improvement of the trade war situation and the arrival of the shipping peak season are beneficial to the recovery of futures prices, while the short - term impact of the geopolitical situation on freight rates is weakened. The current freight rate market is mainly affected by seasonal demand. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - EC main contract closing price: 1799.70, up 2.4; EC secondary main contract closing price: 1164.5, up 3.5. - EC2602 - EC2604 spread: 635.20, up 4.4; EC2602 - EC2606 spread: 479.70, up 2.9. - EC contract basis: - 210.50, down 3.9. - EC main contract position: 34250 hands, down 66 [1]. 3.2 Spot Price Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1589.20, up 78.64; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 962.10, up 37.74. - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1552.92, up 46.46; container ship capacity: 1227.97 million TEUs, unchanged. - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1124.73, up 6.66; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1473.90, up 3.35. - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1877.00, up 12.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1267.00, down 1.00. - Average charter price (Capesize ship): 22120.00, unchanged; average charter price (Panamax ship): down 4660.00 [1]. 3.3 Industry News - The central bank's monetary policy committee held its fourth - quarter regular meeting, emphasizing the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, strengthening monetary policy regulation, and maintaining the stability of the capital market without mentioning the real estate market. - Ukrainian President Zelensky announced the 20 - point details of the Russia - Ukraine "peace plan" draft, but the key territorial issue remains unresolved. Zelensky said Ukraine will not give up its aspiration to join NATO [1]. 3.4 Key Data to Focus On - At 07:30 on December 26, Japan's November unemployment rate [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market is in a stage of slightly increasing supply and resilient demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a slightly bullish range, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract was 96,210 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 12,133 dollars/ton, down 29.5 dollars [2] - The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was - 160 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 247,747 lots, down 10,557 lots [2] - The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 41,742 lots, down 13,656 lots; LME copper inventory was 158,575 tons, up 825 tons [2] - The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 95,805 tons, up 6,416 tons; LME copper cancelled warrants were 48,875 tons, down 2,875 tons [2] - The warehouse receipt of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 52,222 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 94,760 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 95,005 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan [2] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 53 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 56.5 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the CU main contract was - 1,450 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) was 19.69 dollars/ton, up 6.53 dollars [2] - The import volume of copper ores and concentrates was 252.62 million tons, up 7.47 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 43.65 dollars/kiloton, down 0.57 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 85,240 yuan/metal ton, up 1,360 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 85,940 yuan/metal ton, up 1,360 yuan [2] - The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 1,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north was 1,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The output of refined copper was 123.6 million tons, up 3.2 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 64,690 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan [2] - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 78,700 yuan/ton, up 950 yuan [2] 下游及应用 - The output of copper products was 222.6 million tons, up 22.2 million tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 48.2434 billion yuan, up 4.4627 billion yuan [2] - The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 785.909 billion yuan, up 50.282 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,392 million pieces, up 215,000 pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 19.41%, up 0.05%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 16.28%, down 0.22% [2] - The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV was 26.37%, up 0.0597%; the at - the - money option call - put ratio was 1.11, down 0.1062 [2] Industry News - In November 2025, China's scrap copper import volume was 208,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.8% and a year - on - year increase of 19.9%, reaching a new monthly high in 2025 [2] - On December 24, 2025 (London local time), Jiangxi Copper made a formal offer to acquire all the issued and to - be - issued shares of SolGold plc, with a valuation of about 867 million pounds [2] - The central bank's monetary policy committee held its fourth - quarter regular meeting, suggesting to give play to the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, strengthen monetary policy regulation, and promote the low - level operation of the social comprehensive financing cost [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a phase of excessive supply and stable demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile market, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a state of tight supply - demand balance. The long - term outlook is positive, and it is advised to trade with a light position in a volatile market, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a situation of slightly decreasing supply and slowing demand. It is suggested to trade with a light position in a volatile market, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main SHFE aluminum contract was 22,275 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the closing price of the main alumina futures contract was 2,646 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan [2] - The main contract positions of SHFE aluminum decreased by 6,450 hands to 290,474 hands; the main contract positions of alumina increased by 134,943 hands to 245,088 hands [2] - LME aluminum cancelled warrants remained unchanged at 73,225 tons; LME aluminum inventory increased by 1,450 tons to 521,050 tons [2] - The SHFE aluminum net position of the top 20 decreased by 177 hands to - 12,420 hands; the SHFE - LME ratio decreased by 0.06 to 7.53 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum decreased by 50 yuan to 21,980 yuan/ton; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous decreased by 10 yuan to 2,630 yuan/ton [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 105 yuan to 605 yuan/ton; the basis of electrolytic aluminum increased by 5 yuan to - 295 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Alumina production was 813.8 million tons, with a national monthly opening rate of 84.37% (down 0.92%) and a total capacity utilization rate of 86.51% (down 0.45%) [2] - The demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part increased by 25.92 million tons to 730.23 million tons; the supply - demand balance was 37.98 million tons, down 8.87 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was - 10.87 million tons, up 8.34 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 101,652.54 tons to 53.70 million tons [2] - The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity increased by 1 million tons to 4,524.20 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum opening rate was 98.21%, down 0.03% [2] - Aluminum product production increased by 23.70 million tons to 593.10 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased by 7 million tons to 57 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 9.17 million tons to 70 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy decreased by 0.03 million tons to 3.06 million tons [2] - The national real estate climate index was 91.90, down 0.52 [2] - Automobile production increased by 240,000 vehicles to 3.519 million vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of SHFE aluminum increased by 0.10% to 13.00%; the 40 - day historical volatility remained unchanged at 12.01% [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money SHFE aluminum main contract increased by 0.0284% to 15.75%; the call - put ratio of SHFE aluminum options decreased by 0.0021 to 1.64 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The central bank's monetary policy committee held its fourth - quarter meeting, emphasizing the stability of the capital market [2] - Ningbo Sbei Technology plans to expand an aluminum alloy die - casting production project in Thailand, with a total investment of 400 million yuan [2] - Chalco Shenyang Aluminum and Magnesium Institute signed a design contract for a 75,000 - ton/year electrolytic aluminum project with a Malaysian company [2] - Nanning Chantou Xinglv New Materials plans to build a high - precision battery aluminum foil and can lid pull - ring material project [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is focusing on enhancing the effectiveness of both incremental and stock policies in its monetary policy framework for the fourth quarter of 2025, aiming to align monetary supply with economic growth and price level expectations [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Strategy - The PBOC suggests using a combination of various tools to strengthen monetary policy adjustments based on domestic and international economic conditions [1] - The goal is to maintain ample liquidity, ensuring that the growth of social financing and money supply aligns with economic growth and price expectations [1] - There is an emphasis on reinforcing the central bank's policy interest rate guidance and improving the market-based interest rate transmission mechanism [1] Group 2: Financial Market Monitoring - The PBOC will observe and assess the bond market from a macro-prudential perspective, paying attention to changes in long-term yields [1] - The central bank aims to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market, stabilize market expectations, and prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate [1] - Maintaining the stability of the Renminbi exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level is a priority for the PBOC [1]