【重点关注】 ·十四届全国人大四次会议将于2026年3月5日在京召开 ·央行面向个人推出信用修复政策政策"免申即享" 设置三个月宽限期 ·两部门发布《鼓励外商投资产业目录（2025年版）》 鼓励引导外商投资先进制造业、现代服务业 ·全国住房城乡建设工作会议：推动收购存量商品房用作保障性住房、安置房、宿舍、人才房等 ·商务部回应安世半导体问题：督促企业尽快通过协商解决内部纠纷 ·财政部表示明年将扩大财政支出盘子 ·市场监管总局对充电宝等高风险产品实施CCC认证标志试点改革将新增追溯二维码 ·北京调整优化购房政策放宽非京籍及多子女家庭购房限制 【国内要闻】 ·全国人大常委会会议12月27日表决通过了关于召开十四届全国人大四次会议的决定。根据决定，十四 届全国人大四次会议于2026年3月5日在北京召开。政协第十四届全国委员会日前召开主席会议，建议全 国政协十四届四次会议于2026年3月4日在北京召开。 ·中央企业负责人会议12月22日至23日在京召开。中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理李强出席会议并讲 话。李强指出，中央企业要在推进重大基础设施建设中提供强力保障，加快传统基础设施更新和数智化 改造，适度超前开展新型基础 ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 免责声明 | | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | 2025/12/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 数据指标 | | 环比 | 最新 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 1799.700 | | 2.4↑ EC次主力收盘价 | 1164.5 | +3.50↑ | | 期货盘面 | EC2602-EC2604价差 635.20 | | +4.40↑ EC2602-EC2606价差 | 479.70 | +2.90↑ | | EC合约基差 | | -210.50 | -3.90↓ | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） ...

免责声明 沪铜产业日报 2025/12/25 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客 户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处 为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 96,210.00 | +110.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 12,133.00 | -29.50↓ | | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | -160.00 | -30.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 247,747.00 | -10557.00↓ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -41 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a phase of excessive supply and stable demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile market, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a state of tight supply - demand balance. The long - term outlook is positive, and it is advised to trade with a light position in a volatile market, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a situation of slightly decreasing supply and slowing demand. It is suggested to trade with a light position in a volatile market, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main SHFE aluminum contract was 22,275 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the closing price of the main alumina futures contract was 2,646 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan [2] - The main contract positions of SHFE aluminum decreased by 6,450 hands to 290,474 hands; the main contract positions of alumina increased by 134,943 hands to 245,088 hands [2] - LME aluminum cancelled warrants remained unchanged at 73,225 tons; LME aluminum inventory increased by 1,450 tons to 521,050 tons [2] - The SHFE aluminum net position of the top 20 decreased by 177 hands to - 12,420 hands; the SHFE - LME ratio decreased by 0.06 to 7.53 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum decreased by 50 yuan to 21,980 yuan/ton; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous decreased by 10 yuan to 2,630 yuan/ton [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 105 yuan to 605 yuan/ton; the basis of electrolytic aluminum increased by 5 yuan to - 295 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Alumina production was 813.8 million tons, with a national monthly opening rate of 84.37% (down 0.92%) and a total capacity utilization rate of 86.51% (down 0.45%) [2] - The demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part increased by 25.92 million tons to 730.23 million tons; the supply - demand balance was 37.98 million tons, down 8.87 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was - 10.87 million tons, up 8.34 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 101,652.54 tons to 53.70 million tons [2] - The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity increased by 1 million tons to 4,524.20 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum opening rate was 98.21%, down 0.03% [2] - Aluminum product production increased by 23.70 million tons to 593.10 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased by 7 million tons to 57 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 9.17 million tons to 70 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy decreased by 0.03 million tons to 3.06 million tons [2] - The national real estate climate index was 91.90, down 0.52 [2] - Automobile production increased by 240,000 vehicles to 3.519 million vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of SHFE aluminum increased by 0.10% to 13.00%; the 40 - day historical volatility remained unchanged at 12.01% [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money SHFE aluminum main contract increased by 0.0284% to 15.75%; the call - put ratio of SHFE aluminum options decreased by 0.0021 to 1.64 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The central bank's monetary policy committee held its fourth - quarter meeting, emphasizing the stability of the capital market [2] - Ningbo Sbei Technology plans to expand an aluminum alloy die - casting production project in Thailand, with a total investment of 400 million yuan [2] - Chalco Shenyang Aluminum and Magnesium Institute signed a design contract for a 75,000 - ton/year electrolytic aluminum project with a Malaysian company [2] - Nanning Chantou Xinglv New Materials plans to build a high - precision battery aluminum foil and can lid pull - ring material project [2]

（总台央视记者 孙艳） 从宏观审慎的角度观察、评估债市运行情况，关注长期收益率的变化。 畅通货币政策传导机制，提高资金使用效率。 增强外汇市场韧性，稳定市场预期，防范汇率超调风险，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳 定。 来源：央视新闻客户端 记者25日从中国人民银行了解到，近日召开的中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第四季度例会研究了 下阶段货币政策主要思路，建议发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，综合运用多种工具，加强货币政策 调控，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度、节奏和时机。 保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配，促进社 会综合融资成本低位运行。 强化央行政策利率引导，完善市场化利率形成传导机制，发挥市场利率定价自律机制作用，加强利率政 策执行和监督。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The central bank's monetary policy committee held its fourth - quarter meeting, suggesting leveraging the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, strengthening monetary policy regulation, and promoting low - cost social comprehensive financing. The meeting emphasized maintaining capital market stability but did not mention the real estate market. The US plans to impose tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products from 2027, and China firmly opposes this [1]. - A - share major indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.53% to 3940.95 points and the ChiNext Index up 0.77%. Most sector indices rose, and the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 1.8 trillion yuan. US stocks also closed higher on Christmas Eve [1]. - In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures was repaired, and the trading volume and open interest increased simultaneously [2]. - The broader market showed a slight increase in volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving six consecutive positive days. However, the overall willingness to take over was slightly insufficient, and there was some divergence among broad - based indices. The Shanghai Composite Index has not reached the resistance level, and the main tone is still oscillatory repair [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Macroeconomic Charts - The charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][12][10] 2. Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indices on December 24, 2025: the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.53% to 3940.95, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.88% to 13486.42, the ChiNext Index rose 0.77% to 3229.58, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.29% to 4634.06, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.08% to 3025.18, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.31% to 7352.04, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.54% to 7506.38 [14]. - The charts include the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [15] 3. Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures: IF trading volume was 98971 (+6942), open interest was 272260 (+1836); IH trading volume was 39414 (+1602), open interest was 83057 (+229); IC trading volume was 120446 (+24352), open interest was 271262 (+15502); IM trading volume was 185772 (+40779), open interest was 363902 (+11974) [16]. - The basis of stock index futures: for IF, the basis of the current - month contract was - 16.46 (+5.47), the next - month contract was - 29.66 (+9.47), the current - quarter contract was - 39.06 (+10.27), and the next - quarter contract was - 88.46 (+11.07); for IH, the basis of the current - month contract was 0.02 (+3.34), the next - month contract was - 0.58 (+3.74), the current - quarter contract was 1.82 (+3.74), and the next - quarter contract was - 5.38 (+7.74); for IC, the basis of the current - month contract was - 27.44 (+5.75), the next - month contract was - 74.64 (+7.75), the current - quarter contract was - 111.64 (+11.95), and the next - quarter contract was - 297.64 (+18.55); for IM, the basis of the current - month contract was - 42.18 (+7.24), the next - month contract was - 115.78 (+11.84), the current - quarter contract was - 178.78 (+16.24), and the next - quarter contract was - 417.78 (+15.44) [41]. - The inter - delivery spread of stock index futures: for the next - month minus the current - month spread, IF was - 13.20 (+4.00), IH was - 0.60 (+0.40), IC was - 47.20 (+2.00), and IM was - 73.60 (+4.60); for other spread combinations, specific values and changes are also provided [46][48][51]

来源：央视新闻客户端 保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配， 促进社会综合融资成本低位运行。 强化央行政策利率引导，完善市场化利率形成传导机制，发挥市场利率定价自律机制作用，加强 利率政策执行和监督。 从宏观审慎的角度观察、评估债市运行情况，关注长期收益率的变化。 畅通货币政策传导机制，提高资金使用效率。 增强外汇市场韧性，稳定市场预期，防范汇率超调风险，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基 本稳定。 记者25日从中国人民银行了解到，近日召开的中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第四季度例会研究了 下阶段货币政策主要思路，建议发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，综合运用多种工具，加强货币政策 调控，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度、节奏和时机。 ...

央行货币政策委员会：加强货币政策调控 把握好政策实施的力度、节奏和时机 探索常态化制度安排 维 护资本市场稳定 中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第四季度例会于12月18日召开。会议要求，要继续实施适度宽松的 货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，更好发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功能，加强货币财 政政策协同配合，促进经济稳定增长和物价合理回升。 关于国内外经济金融形势，会议认为：当前外部环境变化影响加深，世界经济增长动能不足，贸易壁垒 增多，主要经济体经济表现有所分化，通胀走势和货币政策调整存在不确定性；我国经济运行总体平 稳、稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效，但仍面临供强需弱矛盾突出等问题和挑战。 会议研究了下阶段货币政策主要思路，建议发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，综合运用多种工具，加 强货币政策调控，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度、节奏和时 机。 (责任编辑：张紫祎) 关于下一阶段的重点支持领域，会议提出：有效落实好各类结构性货币政策工具，扎实做好金融"五篇 大文章"，加强对扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域的金融支持；用好证券、基金、保险公 司互换便利和股票回 ...

会议具体提出，保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标 相匹配，促进社会综合融资成本低位运行。 利率方面，会议要求，强化央行政策利率引导，完善市场化利率形成传导机制，发挥市场利率定价自律 机制作用，加强利率政策执行和监督。从宏观审慎的角度观察、评估债市运行情况，关注长期收益率的 变化。 ◎记者 张琼斯 中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第四季度例会于12月18日召开。会议要求，要继续实施适度宽松的 货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，更好发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功能，加强货币财 政政策协同配合，促进经济稳定增长和物价合理回升。 关于国内外经济金融形势，会议认为：当前外部环境变化影响加深，世界经济增长动能不足，贸易壁垒 增多，主要经济体经济表现有所分化，通胀走势和货币政策调整存在不确定性；我国经济运行总体平 稳、稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效，但仍面临供强需弱矛盾突出等问题和挑战。 会议研究了下阶段货币政策主要思路，建议发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，综合运用多种工具，加 强货币政策调控，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度、节奏和时 机 ...

会议指出，要引导大型银行发挥金融服务实体经济主力军作用，推动中小银行聚焦主责主业，增强银行 资本实力，共同维护金融市场的稳定发展。有效落实好各类结构性货币政策工具，扎实做好金融"五篇 大文章"，加强对扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域的金融支持。用好证券、基金、保险公 司互换便利和股票回购增持再贷款，探索常态化的制度安排，维护资本市场稳定。持续做好支持民营经 济发展壮大的金融服务。切实推进金融高水平双向开放，提高开放条件下经济金融管理能力和风险防控 能力。 会议强调，要以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，全面贯彻落实党的二十届四中全会和中央 经济工作会议精神，按照党中央、国务院的决策部署，牢牢把握高质量发展首要任务，扎实推进中国式 现代化，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局。把做强国内大循环摆到更加突出的位 置，统筹好总供给和总需求的关系，增强宏观政策前瞻性针对性协同性，着力扩大内需、优化供给，做 优增量、盘活存量，不断巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头。 本次会议由中国人民银行行长兼货币政策委员会主席潘功胜主持，货币政策委员会委员宣昌能、邹澜、 李云泽、吴清、康义、朱鹤新、谷澍、王一鸣、黄海洲 ...