点击小程序查看报告原文 北京时间今天凌晨结束的3月FOMC会议上，美联储按兵不动符合预期，维持基准利率在4.25~4.5%[1]。会议前市场对美联储暂停降息已是共识，CME利 率期货隐含的3月暂停降息概率高达99%。 因此，此次会议的焦点更多在于，面对一方面有下行压力的经济，一方面是特朗普上任以来关税等政策的反复 性与随意性带来的供给通胀担忧，美联储在2025年如何应对，还能否再降息？ 如果只是经济的自然下行压力，美联储快速降息即可以解决问题，我们认为不足为虑，类似于2024年9月；但如果同时还面临供给侧通胀难题，那么美联 储则只能面对增长下行而无法行动，甚至还有加息压力，类似于2022年，这才是市场担心的。 图表：会议前，CME利率期货隐含3月暂停降息的概率达99% | | | | | | | CME FEDWATCH TOOL - CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITIES | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | MEETING DATE ...

文 ｜ 贾天楚 崔嵘 李翀 韦昕澄 ▍ 从大类资产配置的角度看，"类滞胀"环境下相对利好商品市场，全年商品市场排序仍为金＞铜 ＞油。 近期国际油价持续回落并呈现低位震荡走势，我们认为国际油价当前进入底部震荡区间。从商品属 性的角度看，OPEC+小幅释放原油产量，令全球原油供需平衡结构自去年的偏紧逐渐向偏松方向 移动，叠加二季度在衰退交易、关税等不确定性因素影响下，油价整体或仍呈现区间震荡走势。不 过，二季度至年中，我们此前提示的"类滞胀"趋势或逐渐得到验证并利好商品市场，全年商品市场 排序仍为金＞铜＞油。就油市而言，在通胀及经济基本面等因素的带动下，叠加地缘等因素的阶段 性扰动，油价或能企稳并逐渐缓慢小幅回升。 ▍ 近期国际油价持续回落并呈现低位震荡走势，布油收盘价位于约7 0美元/桶左右，我们认为国 际油价当前进入底部震荡区间，中枢或位于6 5 - 7 0美元/桶，年中至下半年在通胀以及经济基本面 等因素的带动下或逐渐缓慢小幅回升。 具体如下： ▍ 从商品属性的角度看，海外衰退交易尚未结束，油价整体或仍呈现区间震荡行情。 当前海外风险资产调整明显，资金更多流入美债、美国货基、非美股票市场 [ 1 ] ，其实 ...

Economic Overview - February economic data shows mixed signals, with retail and housing sales declining, indicating a potential "stagflation" scenario[2] - January non-farm payrolls increased by 143,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.01%[54] - CPI for January recorded a year-on-year increase of 3%, reflecting inflationary pressures despite some economic slowdown[48] Bond Market Insights - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to find a low point around 4%, with the 10Y-2Y yield spread narrowing or even inverting[5] - In February, the yields for 30Y, 20Y, 10Y, and 2Y Treasuries changed by -29.7, -31.7, -33.1, and -28.2 basis points respectively[3] - The total issuance of U.S. Treasuries in February was $2.4 trillion, down from $2.63 trillion in January[19] Market Strategy Recommendations - The report recommends going long on long-duration Treasuries, including TLT, TMF, and 10-year and above Treasury futures[5] - The strategy is based on anticipated "bull flattening" in the bond market due to economic conditions and shadow "QE" from the Treasury[5] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include an unexpected slowdown in the U.S. economy, faster-than-expected rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, and worsening geopolitical conditions[6] - The market is pricing in 2-3 rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, higher than the previous expectation of just one[4]