Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve reported an operational loss of $776 million for the year 2024, primarily attributed to aggressive interest rate hikes from 2022 to 2023 [1][4][5]. Financial Performance - The Federal Reserve's operational loss for 2024 reached $776 million (approximately 56 billion RMB), marking the second consecutive year of significant losses, following a loss of $11.45 billion in 2023 [4]. - The losses stem from the Fed's economic support during the pandemic in 2020 and 2021, and subsequent rate hikes to combat high inflation, raising the benchmark interest rate from near zero to a range of 5.25% to 5.5% [5][6]. Asset and Liability Management - The Fed's balance sheet includes assets such as government bonds and mortgage-backed securities, generating income similar to other investors. Liabilities consist of bank reserves at the Fed, for which interest must be paid [6]. - Since 2022, the Fed has continuously raised interest rates, increasing the interest paid on bank reserves. By September 2022, the interest paid exceeded the income from its securities portfolio, leading to substantial operational losses [7]. Interest Rate Dynamics - As of the end of 2024, the Fed held $6.8 trillion in securities with a weighted average yield of 2.6%, while paying an interest rate of 4.4% on $3.4 trillion in reserves [8]. - The Fed's operational losses do not affect its ability to conduct monetary policy, as profit generation is not its primary goal; rather, it aims to maintain stable inflation and a healthy labor market [9][13]. Future Profitability Outlook - The timeline for the Fed to return to profitability depends on when the benchmark interest rate falls below the average yield of its securities and other assets. Predictions indicate continued losses if short-term rates remain above 4% [15]. - The Fed decided to maintain the short-term federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% during its March meeting, citing increased uncertainty in the economic outlook [16]. Deferred Assets - Since 2022, the Fed has established an internal account called "deferred assets." When the Fed returns to profitability, it will first use surplus earnings to repay these deferred assets before resuming payments to the Treasury [11]. - The deferred assets grew from $1.33 trillion in 2023 to nearly $2.16 trillion in 2024, indicating ongoing operational losses [12].

点击小程序查看报告原文 本次FOMC会议是自特朗普宣布一系列关税措施以来的首次会议，市场高度关注美联储如何看待关税的 影响以及货币政策将如何应对。尽管货币政策声明并未释放太多信息，但决策者通过经济预测和点阵图 表达了对未来经济的谨慎展望。 美联储预测未来存在一定的"类滞胀"风险[2]。 官员们下调经济增长预测，将2025年第四季实际GDP增 速从2.1%下调至1.7%，将失业率从4.3%上调至4.4%。同时上调通胀预测，将第四季度核心PCE通胀率 从2.5%上调至2.8%，总PCE通胀率从2.5%上调至2.7%。这些变化反映出官员们认为关税政策将对经济 产生负面影响，同时推升价格压力。值得注意的是，经济增长下调的幅度为40个基点，高于通胀上调的 幅度20个基点。这表明，决策者认为"滞"的风险可能大于"胀"的风险。 点阵图偏"鹰"，但鲍威尔积极安抚市场。 点阵图显示2025年的降息中值仍然维持在两次，但支持更少 降息（一次或不降息）的官员人数有所增加，表明一些官员对于未来的通胀进展缺乏信心。然而，美联 储主席鲍威尔在记者会上倾向于认为通胀压力是暂时的，暗示不会采取激烈行动。尽管2月密歇根大学 消费者通胀预期走高 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 北京时间今天凌晨结束的3月FOMC会议上，美联储按兵不动符合预期，维持基准利率在4.25~4.5%[1]。会议前市场对美联储暂停降息已是共识，CME利 率期货隐含的3月暂停降息概率高达99%。 因此，此次会议的焦点更多在于，面对一方面有下行压力的经济，一方面是特朗普上任以来关税等政策的反复 性与随意性带来的供给通胀担忧，美联储在2025年如何应对，还能否再降息？ 如果只是经济的自然下行压力，美联储快速降息即可以解决问题，我们认为不足为虑，类似于2024年9月；但如果同时还面临供给侧通胀难题，那么美联 储则只能面对增长下行而无法行动，甚至还有加息压力，类似于2022年，这才是市场担心的。 图表：会议前，CME利率期货隐含3月暂停降息的概率达99% | | | | | | | CME FEDWATCH TOOL - CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITIES | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | MEETING DATE ...

文 ｜ 贾天楚 崔嵘 李翀 韦昕澄 ▍ 从大类资产配置的角度看，"类滞胀"环境下相对利好商品市场，全年商品市场排序仍为金＞铜 ＞油。 近期国际油价持续回落并呈现低位震荡走势，我们认为国际油价当前进入底部震荡区间。从商品属 性的角度看，OPEC+小幅释放原油产量，令全球原油供需平衡结构自去年的偏紧逐渐向偏松方向 移动，叠加二季度在衰退交易、关税等不确定性因素影响下，油价整体或仍呈现区间震荡走势。不 过，二季度至年中，我们此前提示的"类滞胀"趋势或逐渐得到验证并利好商品市场，全年商品市场 排序仍为金＞铜＞油。就油市而言，在通胀及经济基本面等因素的带动下，叠加地缘等因素的阶段 性扰动，油价或能企稳并逐渐缓慢小幅回升。 ▍ 近期国际油价持续回落并呈现低位震荡走势，布油收盘价位于约7 0美元/桶左右，我们认为国 际油价当前进入底部震荡区间，中枢或位于6 5 - 7 0美元/桶，年中至下半年在通胀以及经济基本面 等因素的带动下或逐渐缓慢小幅回升。 具体如下： ▍ 从商品属性的角度看，海外衰退交易尚未结束，油价整体或仍呈现区间震荡行情。 当前海外风险资产调整明显，资金更多流入美债、美国货基、非美股票市场 [ 1 ] ，其实 ...

Economic Overview - February economic data shows mixed signals, with retail and housing sales declining, indicating a potential "stagflation" scenario[2] - January non-farm payrolls increased by 143,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.01%[54] - CPI for January recorded a year-on-year increase of 3%, reflecting inflationary pressures despite some economic slowdown[48] Bond Market Insights - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to find a low point around 4%, with the 10Y-2Y yield spread narrowing or even inverting[5] - In February, the yields for 30Y, 20Y, 10Y, and 2Y Treasuries changed by -29.7, -31.7, -33.1, and -28.2 basis points respectively[3] - The total issuance of U.S. Treasuries in February was $2.4 trillion, down from $2.63 trillion in January[19] Market Strategy Recommendations - The report recommends going long on long-duration Treasuries, including TLT, TMF, and 10-year and above Treasury futures[5] - The strategy is based on anticipated "bull flattening" in the bond market due to economic conditions and shadow "QE" from the Treasury[5] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include an unexpected slowdown in the U.S. economy, faster-than-expected rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, and worsening geopolitical conditions[6] - The market is pricing in 2-3 rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, higher than the previous expectation of just one[4]