（来源：跨境金融研究院） FED如期降息：影子QE要来了？ FED如期降息25bp，要点总结如下： ※利率决议：降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至 3.50% - 3.75%。这是自2024年9月启动降息以来的第6次降息，也是年内的第3次降息。 ※投票结果：9票赞成，3票反对，凸显内部分歧。反对票中，一人希望降息50个基点，两人希望维持利率不变。 ※点阵图：美联储官员对2026年底的利率预测中值维持在3.375%，暗示明年可能还有1次25个基点的降息空间。 ※这次比较重要的是美联储短债购买计划（RMP）：宣布于12月12日起，启动每月400亿美元的短期国债购买计划，以维持银行体系准备金的充裕水平。 （原文：Federal Reserve will begin buying $40 billion of Treasury bills per month starting Dec. 12 as it's looking to rebuild reserves in the financial system which dwindled while it was tightening its balanc ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury is significantly expanding its bond buyback program to lower long-term yields, with operations for long-term U.S. Treasuries (10 to 30 years) doubling in frequency and quarterly liquidity support limits raised from $30 billion to $38 billion, aiming for an annual buyback target exceeding $300 billion [1] - The Treasury will continue to issue short-term U.S. Treasuries and slightly increase the sale of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), with the auction size for 10-year TIPS reopening set to increase to $19 billion and 5-year TIPS new issuance to $26 billion [1] - This strategy of using new short-term debt issuance to fund the purchase of existing long-term debt is functionally similar to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE) [1] Group 2 - High long-term bond yields are seen as a constraint on monetary policy and increase the cost of servicing U.S. debt, with the 10-year Treasury yield hovering around 4.36% and the 30-year yield nearing the psychological level of 5% [3][4] - The Treasury maintains a conservative approach to issuing medium- to long-term bonds, planning to keep auction sizes for 2 to 30-year bonds unchanged for at least the next few quarters [5] Group 3 - The reliance on short-term U.S. Treasuries is expected to continue rising, with short-term debt currently making up about 20% of the U.S. Treasury market, aligning with recommendations from the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) [7] - Analysts express concerns that over-reliance on short-term debt could lead to increased volatility in financing costs and necessitate higher cash reserves to manage potential rollover risks [7] Group 4 - Market reactions to the Treasury's expanded buyback plan are mixed, with some analysts suggesting that it may be premature to label it as "shadow QE," while others see it as a step towards coordinated policy efforts between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve [8][9] - There are concerns that internal government policies, such as tariffs and a large budget proposal, may counteract efforts to lower long-term rates, with some investment managers noting that the scale of the buyback may be insufficient to counteract rising yield trends driven by inflation and deficit expectations [10]

Economic Overview - February economic data shows mixed signals, with retail and housing sales declining, indicating a potential "stagflation" scenario[2] - January non-farm payrolls increased by 143,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.01%[54] - CPI for January recorded a year-on-year increase of 3%, reflecting inflationary pressures despite some economic slowdown[48] Bond Market Insights - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to find a low point around 4%, with the 10Y-2Y yield spread narrowing or even inverting[5] - In February, the yields for 30Y, 20Y, 10Y, and 2Y Treasuries changed by -29.7, -31.7, -33.1, and -28.2 basis points respectively[3] - The total issuance of U.S. Treasuries in February was $2.4 trillion, down from $2.63 trillion in January[19] Market Strategy Recommendations - The report recommends going long on long-duration Treasuries, including TLT, TMF, and 10-year and above Treasury futures[5] - The strategy is based on anticipated "bull flattening" in the bond market due to economic conditions and shadow "QE" from the Treasury[5] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include an unexpected slowdown in the U.S. economy, faster-than-expected rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, and worsening geopolitical conditions[6] - The market is pricing in 2-3 rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, higher than the previous expectation of just one[4]