影子的央行：既然管不了你，我就架空你 如果刑事调查是硬刀子，那么特朗普近期搞的经济政策就是 软刀子。鲍威尔不肯配合降息，特朗普便决定另起炉灶，打造一个听命于自己的影子美联储：影子QE ——指示房利美、房地美购买2000亿美元抵押债券。这意味着绕开美联储，直接向市场注水，压低房贷 利率。行政限价——呼吁将信用卡利率强行限制在10%。这招虽然不符合市场规律，但对那些被高利息 压得喘不过气的选民来说，简直是天降福音。特朗普逻辑清晰：你不降息？那我就用行政手段帮选民把 账单打下来。他正在完成对货币政策的功能性接管。名义上，美国的央行仍在埃克尔斯大楼，但实际定 价权，已经悄悄移交到白宫椭圆形办公室。 华盛顿有一条不成文的规矩：总统可以骂美联储主席，但不能抓他。然而，到了2026年的特朗普，这条 规矩仿佛成了纸张般脆弱——他决定亲手把它撕成碎片。1月11日，一则足以震撼全球金融市场的消息 传出：美国司法部正式对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查。表面理由荒诞不经：指控他在美联储大楼25 亿美元翻修工程中撒谎。可所有人都心知肚明，这哪里是在查装修？分明是项庄舞剑，意在沛公。特朗 普真正盯上的，不是那些大理石，也不是会议室的吊灯， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve (FED) has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.50% - 3.75%. This marks the sixth rate cut since September 2024 and the third cut this year [1][20]. Interest Rate Decision - The decision to cut rates was supported by 9 votes in favor and 3 against, indicating internal divisions within the FED. Among the dissenting votes, one member advocated for a 50 basis point cut, while two preferred to keep rates unchanged [3][20]. - The dot plot indicates that FED officials maintain a median rate forecast of 3.375% for the end of 2026, suggesting the possibility of one more 25 basis point cut next year [22]. Short-Term Debt Purchase Plan - A significant aspect of this meeting is the announcement of a short-term debt purchase plan (RMP), which will begin on December 12, involving the purchase of $40 billion in Treasury bills per month to maintain ample reserves in the banking system [5][23]. - Although the FED is purchasing short-term T-bills, it is important to note that the U.S. Treasury is also buying long-term bonds and implementing a bond repurchase plan to enhance market liquidity and suppress rising yields. The frequency of repurchases has increased from two to four times per quarter, with the maximum operation limit raised from $30 billion to $38 billion. This combination of FED purchases and Treasury repurchases can be interpreted as a form of "shadow QE" [5][23]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the U.S. dollar index fell, reaching a low of 98.59. Initially, the dollar dropped after the rate cut announcement but rebounded briefly before declining again due to the debt purchase plan [6][24]. - The yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds decreased, with the 2-year yield dropping more significantly by 1.85% compared to a 1.21% drop in the 10-year yield [7][25]. - All three major U.S. stock indices rose, with the Nasdaq 100 showing particularly strong gains, reflecting positive expectations for liquidity easing [8][26]. - Gold and silver prices surged, with silver experiencing a notable increase of over 3%, reaching a historical high [10][28]. - Bitcoin saw a significant spike, reaching $94,000 with an instantaneous increase of 2.89% [11][29].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury is significantly expanding its bond buyback program to lower long-term yields, with operations for long-term U.S. Treasuries (10 to 30 years) doubling in frequency and quarterly liquidity support limits raised from $30 billion to $38 billion, aiming for an annual buyback target exceeding $300 billion [1] - The Treasury will continue to issue short-term U.S. Treasuries and slightly increase the sale of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), with the auction size for 10-year TIPS reopening set to increase to $19 billion and 5-year TIPS new issuance to $26 billion [1] - This strategy of using new short-term debt issuance to fund the purchase of existing long-term debt is functionally similar to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE) [1] Group 2 - High long-term bond yields are seen as a constraint on monetary policy and increase the cost of servicing U.S. debt, with the 10-year Treasury yield hovering around 4.36% and the 30-year yield nearing the psychological level of 5% [3][4] - The Treasury maintains a conservative approach to issuing medium- to long-term bonds, planning to keep auction sizes for 2 to 30-year bonds unchanged for at least the next few quarters [5] Group 3 - The reliance on short-term U.S. Treasuries is expected to continue rising, with short-term debt currently making up about 20% of the U.S. Treasury market, aligning with recommendations from the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) [7] - Analysts express concerns that over-reliance on short-term debt could lead to increased volatility in financing costs and necessitate higher cash reserves to manage potential rollover risks [7] Group 4 - Market reactions to the Treasury's expanded buyback plan are mixed, with some analysts suggesting that it may be premature to label it as "shadow QE," while others see it as a step towards coordinated policy efforts between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve [8][9] - There are concerns that internal government policies, such as tariffs and a large budget proposal, may counteract efforts to lower long-term rates, with some investment managers noting that the scale of the buyback may be insufficient to counteract rising yield trends driven by inflation and deficit expectations [10]

Economic Overview - February economic data shows mixed signals, with retail and housing sales declining, indicating a potential "stagflation" scenario[2] - January non-farm payrolls increased by 143,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.01%[54] - CPI for January recorded a year-on-year increase of 3%, reflecting inflationary pressures despite some economic slowdown[48] Bond Market Insights - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to find a low point around 4%, with the 10Y-2Y yield spread narrowing or even inverting[5] - In February, the yields for 30Y, 20Y, 10Y, and 2Y Treasuries changed by -29.7, -31.7, -33.1, and -28.2 basis points respectively[3] - The total issuance of U.S. Treasuries in February was $2.4 trillion, down from $2.63 trillion in January[19] Market Strategy Recommendations - The report recommends going long on long-duration Treasuries, including TLT, TMF, and 10-year and above Treasury futures[5] - The strategy is based on anticipated "bull flattening" in the bond market due to economic conditions and shadow "QE" from the Treasury[5] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include an unexpected slowdown in the U.S. economy, faster-than-expected rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, and worsening geopolitical conditions[6] - The market is pricing in 2-3 rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, higher than the previous expectation of just one[4]