分析师：美元多头获得了一些喘息空间 中期仍看空美元 金十数据7月3日讯，分析师Audrey Freeman表示："在美国漫长的周末假期之前，美元多头获得了一些 喘息空间，初请失业金人数和6月份非农就业报告都表明，劳动力市场仍有活力，尽管私人就业数据温 和，这一点不容忽视。这不会改变我们中期看空美元的观点，但反弹是应该的，美联储不需要急于降息 这一事实可能会在一段时间内有所帮助。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank official Demarco stated that the euro will not replace the US dollar as the dominant reserve currency [1] Group 1 - The euro's position as a reserve currency is not expected to surpass that of the US dollar [1] - Demarco's comments reflect ongoing discussions about the future of global currencies and their roles in international finance [1]

Macroeconomics - Deutsche Bank suggests the US dollar may face further adjustments to eliminate the US current account deficit [1]

Group 1 - The core argument of the report is that tariffs are not a zero-sum game and have significant implications for U.S. Treasury securities and the U.S. dollar, with a focus on the broader economic impact rather than just the immediate costs to producers and consumers [1][2] - Tariffs paid by U.S. importers are projected to amount to $327 billion annually, which represents 1% of the nominal GDP for 2025 [2][6] - If companies fully absorb the tariff costs, profit margins could drop from 13.8% to 11.7% in Q1 2025, significantly below the 15-year moving average of 12.2% [2][12] Group 2 - The report highlights that if 75% of the tariffs are passed on to consumers, profit margins could exceed the 15-year moving average by 1.1 percentage points [12][13] - The analysis indicates that the current economic environment is leaning towards downside risks, with a noted decline in air passenger traffic compared to previous years [17] - The report suggests that despite some foreign investors increasing their holdings in U.S. stocks, there is a notable trend of U.S. domestic investors reducing their exposure, indicating a potential reallocation of assets [34][36]

欧洲央行副行长金多斯：对美国的怀疑态度反映在美元上。 ...

美国明尼阿波利斯联储主席Kashkari：我不会赌美元不再是最重要的货币。 ...

金十数据6月26日讯，据外媒分析报道，如果特朗普在9月的美联储利率决议之前宣布鲍威尔的接班人， 那么美元的形势可能会由"坏"变成"更坏"。因为一旦如此，意味着鲍威尔任期内剩下的六次会议都将 在"继任者阴影"下进行（其任期将于明年5月结束），这可能削弱鲍威尔的权威，进而打击美元。如果 鲍威尔领导的美联储在下月连续第五次按兵不动，那么这种情况发生的几率就会增加，因为那将激怒特 朗普。当前市场预计美联储在7月30日降息的概率为25%。 外媒：若美联储7月不降息，特朗普将给鲍威尔安排个"影子" ...

Group 1 - The US dollar continues to weaken, leading to an appreciation of the onshore Chinese yuan against most Asian currencies [1] - The onshore yuan has reached a new high not seen since November of the previous year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. dollar remains the global reserve currency, and there is no opinion on whether it is overvalued [1] Group 1 - The statement emphasizes the continued dominance of the U.S. dollar in the global financial system [1] - The lack of a stance on the dollar's valuation indicates a neutral position regarding its current market status [1]

Core Viewpoint - The narrative suggesting the decline of the US dollar as the primary safe-haven currency is considered premature and somewhat exaggerated [1] Group 1 - The US dollar continues to hold its position as the leading safe-haven currency [1]