全球储备货币

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欧洲央行管委马赫鲁夫:欧元还没准备好挑战美元的(全球储备货币)地位。
news flash· 2025-07-05 12:20
Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member, Mahrouf, stated that the euro is not yet ready to challenge the dollar's status as the global reserve currency [1] Group 1 - The euro's current position is not strong enough to compete with the dollar in terms of global reserve currency status [1] - Mahrouf's comments highlight the ongoing dominance of the dollar in international finance and trade [1] - The ECB is aware of the challenges facing the euro in gaining a larger share of global reserves [1]
欧洲央行管委Gabriel Makhlouf:欧元还没准备好挑战美元的(全球储备货币)地位。
news flash· 2025-07-05 12:02
Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf stated that the euro is not yet ready to challenge the dollar's status as the global reserve currency [1] Group 1 - The euro's current position does not allow it to compete with the dollar in terms of global reserve currency status [1] - Makhlouf emphasized the need for further developments before the euro can be considered a viable alternative to the dollar [1]
7月4日汇市晚评:日本央行量化紧缩计划遭反对 美元/日元仍承压于145下方
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-04 10:35
Currency Market Overview - The Euro is fluctuating around 1.1760 against the US Dollar, while the British Pound has risen for the fourth consecutive trading day, trading above 1.3700 [1] - The US Dollar against the Japanese Yen is under pressure, remaining below 145.00, and the Australian Dollar is consolidating below 0.6600 [1] - The Canadian Dollar has dropped to around 1.3570, approaching an eight-month low of approximately 1.3540 [1] Key Developments in the US Dollar - President Trump announced that a tariff letter will be issued on Friday, with a floating range of 10%-70%, effective from August 1 [2] - US non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, leading traders to abandon bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July [2] - Federal Reserve's Bostic noted that the labor market remains healthy, and the US economy may experience prolonged high inflation [2] Developments in Major Non-USD Currencies - ECB official Demarco stated that the Euro will not replace the Dollar as a reserve currency [3] - Japan's FY2025 wage growth forecast has been revised down to 5.25%, remaining above 5% for two consecutive years [3] - The Bank of England's survey indicates that UK businesses have lowered their wage growth expectations for the year [3] - ECB's Lagarde emphasized the need to improve the economy to enhance the Euro's global standing [3] Technical Analysis - The Euro/USD is trading above bullish moving averages, with the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) around 1.1570 [6] - The Australian Dollar/USD has broken through a multi-week range, indicating an upward trend, with key support at 0.6540-0.6530 [7] - The Dollar/Canadian Dollar has faced resistance near the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, indicating a bearish outlook [7] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data to watch includes Switzerland's June adjusted unemployment rate and the Eurozone's May PPI [8]
贝森特否认美元下跌威胁其世界主要货币的地位
news flash· 2025-07-03 18:55
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin, dismissed concerns that the recent depreciation of the dollar threatens its status as the world's primary currency, emphasizing the importance of long-term measures to maintain the dollar's position as a global reserve currency [1] Group 1: Dollar Performance - The dollar index fell nearly 11% in the first half of the year, marking its worst performance since 1973 [1] - This depreciation occurred amid concerns regarding the Trump administration's policies, particularly the potential economic impact of increased tariffs and a tough diplomatic stance towards long-time allies [1] Group 2: Economic Policies - Mnuchin stated that the Republican tax reform has "created conditions for economic growth," suggesting that such policies are crucial for the dollar's strength in the long run [1]
7月1日欧洲央行辛特拉论坛要点回顾:鲍威尔提出7月降息可能性
news flash· 2025-07-01 22:39
Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell suggested the possibility of interest rate cuts in July but did not formally endorse the idea [1] - European Central Bank President Lagarde indicated that 2025 could be a "critical year" for the status of the US dollar as a global reserve currency [2] - Bank of England Governor Bailey stated that UK interest rates are in a "downward channel," but the motivation for past rate cuts may be limited due to low household debt [2] - Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong mentioned that South Korea's inflation rate is well stabilized, but the central bank is closely monitoring rising financial stability risks when deciding on the timing and pace of rate cuts [2] - Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo noted that Japan's interest rates are currently below neutral levels, but he cautioned against using theoretical rates as a guideline in "cloudy" circumstances [2]
人民币国际化的新机遇
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-06-30 07:11
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical and current challenges faced by currencies like the Ruble, Yen, Euro, and the potential for the Renminbi to challenge the dominance of the US dollar in the global financial system [1][2][3][4][5][6][9][10]. Group 1: Historical Context of Currency Competition - The Ruble was once considered a competitor to the dollar until the economic weaknesses of the Soviet Union became apparent [1]. - The Plaza Accord in 1985 led to a rapid appreciation of the Yen, which contributed to Japan's asset bubble, but did not result in the Yen becoming a major global reserve currency [2][3]. - The Euro has faced significant challenges since its inception, particularly during the Eurozone debt crisis, which highlighted the lack of a unified fiscal policy among member states [3][4]. Group 2: Characteristics of Global Reserve Currencies - A global reserve currency typically requires military power to ensure its dominance, as seen with historical currencies of Spain, the Netherlands, and the UK [5]. - The US has maintained its position as the global reserve currency due to its military spending and the favorable external environment post-World War II [5][6]. Group 3: Current and Future Prospects for the Renminbi - The increasing global attention on the Renminbi is partly due to the erosion of trust in the US dollar under Trump's administration, leading to a search for alternative reserve currencies [6][9]. - The Renminbi's potential as a reserve currency is hindered by its limited circulation and the lack of liquid Renminbi-denominated assets [7][9]. - For the Renminbi to challenge the dollar, it must establish a settlement network, particularly in Asia, and build trust in its stability and convertibility [10].
鲍威尔:美元仍然是全球的储备货币。对美元是否被高估不持看法。
news flash· 2025-06-25 14:45
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. dollar remains the global reserve currency, and there is no opinion on whether it is overvalued [1] Group 1 - The statement emphasizes the continued dominance of the U.S. dollar in the global financial system [1] - The lack of a stance on the dollar's valuation indicates a neutral position regarding its current market status [1]
美商务部长“画饼”称印美有望尽快达成贸易协定,印度新闻主播:别轻信
Huan Qiu Shi Bao· 2025-06-03 22:53
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the evolving dynamics of India-US relations, particularly in defense procurement, with India shifting from reliance on Russian military equipment to increasing purchases from the US [1][3][4] - US Commerce Secretary Raimondo emphasized India's openness to addressing US concerns and the potential for a bilateral trade agreement, with discussions scheduled for June 5 and a possible signing by July [3] - The historical context of India's defense procurement is rooted in its Cold War alliances, with a significant reduction in reliance on Russian equipment from 76% in 2009 to 36% in 2023, indicating a diversification of military partnerships [4] Group 2 - The articles discuss the criticism of the BRICS nations by former US President Trump, who warned against attempts to create a new global reserve currency and threatened high tariffs on non-compliance [3] - There is a recognition that India's participation in BRICS is strategic, allowing it to leverage its position for global governance reforms and to counterbalance China's influence, which aligns with US interests [4] - The commentary suggests that the US should acknowledge the complexity of India's foreign policy to foster deeper and more meaningful cooperation between the two nations [4]