专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 1月5日，ATFX汇市前瞻：本周五21：30，美国劳工统计局将公布美国12月非农就业报告，这是美国政 府停摆以来，第一个不受影响的完整月份非农就业报告，指导意义较强。报告中最受关注的数据是新增 非农就业人口，前值为6.4万人，预期值5.3万人，预期略显悲观。历史数据看，2025年5月份以来，美国 的新增非农就业人口数据一直低位徘徊，某些月份甚至跌入负值区间。从预期对行情的影响来看，非农 数据较差，可能不会显著利空美元指数。但是，非农数据超预期靓丽，极有可能显著提振美指。需要提 醒的是，11月份的数据曾被下修至-10.5万人，如果按照修正后的数据看，5.3万人算是比较乐观的预 期。不过，11月份有一半时间处于美国政府停摆状态，数据可靠性不足，12月份数据与11月份数据对比 产生的利多效应较弱。美国就业市场疲软的事实已经成为共识，只要非农数据不再出现严重的负增长， 公布值在5万人以下的话，预计对美元指数的冲击不会太强。 ▲ATFX图 ▲ATFX图 本周三18：00，欧盟统计局将公布欧元区12月CPI年率，前值为2.1%，预期值2%，预期略微下降。欧元 区12月核心CPI年率，前值为2. ...

彭博美元指数在新年首个交易日随美国国债收益率走高。受贵金属价格上涨提振，澳元兑美元表现优于 其他G-10货币，而欧元表现落后。 彭博美元即期指数上涨0.1%，迈向连续第五日上涨；该指数在2025年录得8.1%的跌幅。 标普全球美国制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）12月报51.8，符合预期。 美国10年期国债收益率上升2.5个基点，至4.19%。 Bannockburn Capital Markets首席市场策略师Marc Chandler周五接受采访时表示："去年美元的下跌主要 发生在上半年，市场当时在适应特朗普重返白宫和关税政策"。 "在我看来，美元走势的关键驱动因素将是美联储政策。随着经济确实放缓，我们预计美联储今年将降 息两到三次"。 澳元/美元涨0.2%，至0.6685，领涨G-10货币；此前风险偏好改善以及白银和黄金走强对澳元形成支 撑。 InTouch Capital Markets的Sean Callow表示，在美元走软的背景下，澳元在2026年初相对其他货币的强 势表现，表明投资者可能在押注澳大利亚央行与美联储的政策分化交易。 欧元/美元跌0.2%，至1.1717，欧元区12月制造业采购经理指数 ...

#报告 富国银行：法国的财政不确定性对更广泛的欧元区经济和欧元的影响有限。None (@None):None ...

Group 1 - The performance of major currency pairs on July 25, 2025, shows a slight decline against the US dollar, with most pairs experiencing a decrease of around 0.04% to 0.09% [1][3] - The euro, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar all exhibited similar downward trends, indicating a general weakening against the US dollar [3] - The data suggests a consistent pattern of depreciation across various currency pairs, reflecting potential market volatility or shifts in investor sentiment [3]

Group 1 - The interest rate decision was unanimously passed, and no further guidance on rates can be provided at this time [1] - Current inflation stands at 2%, which is considered ideal, with inflation expectations remaining very stable [3] - Economic growth is generally in line with expectations, and may even be slightly better than anticipated [5] Group 2 - Close attention is being paid to the progress of trade negotiations, with an inability to assess the impact of trade disruptions on inflation [2] - A stronger euro may suppress inflation more than expected, without targeting any specific exchange rate level [4]

Core Insights - The European Central Bank (ECB) meeting minutes indicate that energy prices and the euro's value are the primary drivers of overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) fluctuations [1] Group 1 - Energy prices are identified as a significant factor influencing CPI changes, highlighting the importance of monitoring energy market trends [1] - The value of the euro is also noted as a critical element affecting inflation dynamics, suggesting that currency fluctuations can have substantial implications for economic stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank official Demarco stated that the euro will not replace the US dollar as the dominant reserve currency [1] Group 1 - The euro's position as a reserve currency is not expected to surpass that of the US dollar [1] - Demarco's comments reflect ongoing discussions about the future of global currencies and their roles in international finance [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the U.S. is actively promoting stablecoins not only to mitigate risks associated with U.S. debt but also to deepen the influence of the dollar on the global financial system [1] - If stablecoins spread without restrictions, the influence of the dollar could further erode the sovereignty of other countries' currencies [1] - The Italian Finance Minister has warned that dollar-pegged stablecoins could "crowd out" the euro [1] Group 2 - The impact of stablecoins will be more direct and severe for developing countries with weak currency systems and high inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Schnabel indicated that energy prices and the euro may experience bidirectional changes [1] Group 1 - Energy prices are expected to fluctuate, impacting the overall economic landscape [1] - The euro's value may also be influenced by these energy price changes, suggesting a complex relationship between the two [1]