国外 1. 瑞银：美联储降息及地缘政治风险加剧的背景下，金价将升至6200美元 瑞银重申对黄金的积极立场，预计未来数月国际现货黄金目标价达6200美元/盎司。分析师认为，在美 国与伊朗紧张局势下，地缘政治风险将持续高企，而美联储宽松周期预计将继续，对实际利率构成压 力。分析师指出，2025年全球黄金需求突破5000吨，瑞银预计，在更强劲的投资流动和各国央行持续购 买的推动下，金价将进一步上涨。供应方面，增长似乎受限。虽然金价高企可能激励勘探活动，但咨询 公司伍德麦肯兹估计，到2028年，约有80座矿山将耗尽当前的生产计划，这表明短期内供应弹性有限。 2. 高盛：央行购金叠加私人投资，金价年底前将缓慢攀升至5400美元 高盛预计，黄金价格将逐步攀升，到2026年底达到5400美元/盎司，多元化配置将带来上行空间。与此 同时，高盛预计2026年央行购金活动将以2025年所见的步伐再度加速。其核心观点是，央行需求加上私 人投资者增加持仓（主要因应对美联储降息而增持）支撑金价稳步上涨。高盛指出，如果私营部门的多 元化举措（尤其是看涨期权结构）有所增加，那么市场将面临显著的上行风险。此外，中期趋势虽仍呈 上升态势，但可 ...

摩根士丹利策略师表示，在美国政策不确定性加剧的背景下，市场对瑞郎避险地位的信心不断增强，该货币兑美元有望大涨17%。 由戴维・亚当斯（David Adams）牵头的策略团队在报告中写道，瑞士的低通胀、稳健财政以及资产安全性，令瑞郎堪称最像黄金的避险货币。 他们指出，在悲观情境下，美元兑瑞郎将跌至0.64的历史低位。周一该货币对交投于0.776附近。 与此同时，对冲基金也在押注瑞郎走强。美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）最新周度数据显示，杠杆基金目前持有自去年6月以来最大规模的瑞郎净多头头 寸，一周前刚从净空头转为净多头。 上月，瑞郎兑欧元与美元均升至十多年来最强水平。瑞士债务水平温和、经济稳定、政策可预期，与美国政策混乱形成对比，叠加地缘风险上升，吸引投资 者涌入。 尽管瑞郎走强会提升瑞士央行入市干预以压制本币、缓解通缩压力的风险，但越来越多的经济学家认为，该国央行目前抑制瑞郎走强的意愿有所下降。 摩根士丹利预计瑞郎兑其他货币将继续走强，欧元兑瑞郎有望从当前约0.91的水平下跌5%至0.87。 亚当斯表示："瑞郎是一种被忽视、被低估的避险资产，其升值幅度与速度或将超出投资者预期与市场定价。"他补充称，瑞郎是最 ...

2026.02. 13 本文字数：3020，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 从去年开始持续到今年，美元、日元和瑞士法郎表现各异，预期不同，如今这三个传统避险货币到底 谁才是避险"神话"？ 日本三菱日联银行的货币分析师哈德曼（Lee Hardman）表示，日元和美元的避险吸引力都因政治 动荡而"受到削弱"。从长远来看，瑞士法郎被证明是G10货币中最佳的价值储存币种。 FXTM富拓首席中文市场分析师卢晓旸对第一财经记者表示，2026年伊始，全球外汇市场正处于一 个关键转折点。美元在年初虽有短暂回暖，但整体弱势格局几乎已经确定，是多重因素交织的结果。 去美元化加剧 斯米德资管（Smead Capital Management）的首席执行官（CEO）兼投资组合经理斯米德 （Cole Smead）也称："从长远来看，我们正处于美元熊市之中。美元在2002年达到顶峰，但仅仅 六年后，美元就跌至多年来的最低点。"2002年~2008年，美元指数跌约41%。 日元波动性增加 日元的难题更主要源于波动性以及不可预测性。2025年全年，日元汇率波动剧烈，干预传闻甚嚣尘 上。2025年初，日元对美元约为156。随着 ...

瑞安称，美元和日元"近来无疑失去了部分光环"，而瑞士法郎则"巩固了其作为首选避险货币的地位"。 从去年开始持续到今年，美元、日元和瑞士法郎表现各异，预期不同，如今这三个传统避险货币到底谁才是避险"神话"？ 日本三菱日联银行的货币分析师哈德曼（Lee Hardman）表示，日元和美元的避险吸引力都因政治动荡而"受到削弱"。从长远来看，瑞士法郎被证明是G10 货币中最佳的价值储存币种。 FXTM富拓首席中文市场分析师卢晓旸对第一财经记者表示，2026年伊始，全球外汇市场正处于一个关键转折点。美元在年初虽有短暂回暖，但整体弱势格 局几乎已经确定，是多重因素交织的结果。 他进一步分析道，其次，美联储降息预期调整，去年年底，市场一度预计2026年最高或会降息四次，但随着预期修正为两次，美元在今年年初有所反弹。目 前美元价格已基本消化这一降息步伐预期放缓的变化。CME FedWatch工具显示，6月降息至少25个基点的概率达75%，这将支撑第一、第二季度美元的进一 步走弱。美联储政策转向宽松，结合美国经济增长放缓，进一步削弱美元吸引力。 去美元化加剧 美国总统特朗普2025年加征关税的举动，引发了一场"抛售美国"的浪潮， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc (CHF) continues to strengthen as a core safe-haven currency, facing challenges from exchange rate management and economic growth, influenced by global geopolitical and trade dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Movements - As of February 4, 2026, the CHF showed slight fluctuations against the Chinese Yuan, with a rate of 8.9405, down 0.1520% from the previous trading day [1]. - The CHF has appreciated 3.5% since the beginning of 2026, with a total increase of 12.7% throughout 2025, reaching a peak against the USD at 1.2885 [1]. - The CHF's stability against the Euro has been maintained, with only a 32 basis point fluctuation over the past week, aligning with the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) exchange rate stability goals [1]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - Switzerland maintains a robust economic foundation, with a current account surplus exceeding 4% of GDP and foreign exchange reserves around $894.2 billion as of June 2026 [2]. - The country has been a high net creditor for over a decade, with a net international investment position of 1,029.4 billion CHF, representing over 100% of GDP, indicating strong resilience to external shocks [2]. - Key export sectors such as pharmaceuticals and precision manufacturing have shown low price elasticity in overseas demand, helping to stabilize the CHF despite its appreciation [2]. Group 3: Central Bank Challenges - The strong CHF presents challenges for the SNB, with inflation at only 0.1%, hovering near deflation and negative interest rates, limiting the scope for rate cuts [2]. - The SNB has previously intervened in the forex market to curb CHF appreciation but faces constraints due to recent trade agreements with the U.S. that could provoke dissatisfaction if intervention occurs [2]. - Analysts generally believe that the CHF's long-term strength is unlikely to change, supported by factors such as rising gold prices, safe-haven demand, and current account surpluses, making SNB intervention ineffective in altering the medium-term trend [2]. Group 4: Short-term and Long-term Outlook - Short-term CHF movements will be influenced by multiple factors, including central bank meetings, inflation data, and intervention actions, alongside global risk sentiment and USD trends [3]. - Concerns over rising Swiss real estate prices and increased mortgage growth may pose hidden constraints on excessive CHF strength [3]. - In the medium to long term, the sustainability of CHF strength will depend on central bank policies, economic resilience, and global conditions, with ongoing uncertainty likely to sustain safe-haven inflows [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc (CHF) continues to strengthen against the US Dollar (USD), driven by its safe-haven status and supportive monetary policy from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Performance - As of January 30, 2026, the CHF/USD exchange rate was 1.3043, reflecting a slight decline of 0.3522% from the previous trading day, with a year-to-date increase of over 2.5% [1]. - The USD/CHF rate fell below 0.7640, marking a 176-month low, highlighting the CHF's strong position in the currency market [1]. - The CHF's performance aligns with historical stability during periods of market turmoil, reinforcing its role as a core safe-haven currency [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy - The SNB maintained its policy rate at 0% during the December 2025 monetary policy meeting, with expectations to keep it unchanged until at least the second half of 2027 [1][2]. - The SNB's commitment to a stable monetary policy supports key export industries like watchmaking and pharmaceuticals, alleviating pressures from a strong currency [2]. - The SNB retains the option for regular foreign exchange interventions to manage CHF fluctuations, aiming to balance currency strength with economic stability [2][4]. Group 3: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Switzerland's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year rate of 0.1% in December 2025, indicating a controlled inflation environment that aligns with the SNB's policy [2]. - The SNB forecasts average inflation of approximately 0.4% for 2025, and 0.8% for both 2026 and 2027, suggesting no need for aggressive monetary policy adjustments [2]. - The Swiss economy is projected to grow by 1%-1.5% in 2025 and around 1.5% in 2026, supported by rising real wages and a stable job market [3]. Group 4: External Factors and Risks - Global risk sentiment, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence, has increased demand for the CHF as a safe-haven asset [3][5]. - The potential for a slowdown in external demand due to rising global economic uncertainties poses a risk to Switzerland's export-driven economy, particularly in high-end manufacturing sectors [4][5]. - Analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook for the CHF, expecting it to remain strong amid ongoing safe-haven demand and supportive policies, with potential fluctuations based on external economic conditions [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc (CHF) continues to show strong fluctuations influenced by safe-haven capital inflows, global central bank policy divergence, and economic fundamentals, with medium to long-term trends driven by policy stability and external risk events [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Performance - As of January 28, 2026, the CHF has appreciated against the Chinese Yuan (CNY) to 9.0686, marking a 1.28% increase from the previous trading day [1]. - The CHF is trading at 1.0693 against the US Dollar (USD), with the USD further declining to 0.7669, reflecting a 1.24% drop, indicating the weakening of the USD supports the CHF [1]. - The CHF maintains a stable range against the Euro (EUR) between 1.08 and 1.09, showcasing its defensive attributes compared to other currencies [1]. Group 2: Central Bank Policy - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has kept the policy interest rate at 0% as of December 2025, reiterating the need for foreign exchange interventions while maintaining a loose monetary stance following a 25 basis point cut in June 2025 [1]. - The SNB's leadership has indicated a reluctance to reintroduce negative interest rates due to potential adverse effects on pensions, reinforcing expectations of policy stability [1]. - Market predictions suggest that the zero interest rate policy will likely remain until the second half of 2027, aimed at preventing excessive CHF appreciation and supporting domestic demand [1]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Swiss economy is characterized by a "weak external, strong internal" dynamic, with exports facing pressure from high tariffs, particularly in the watch and food processing sectors, leading to a 7.3% year-on-year decline in watch exports as of November 2025 [2]. - Despite a recent tariff agreement with the US that reduced rates from 39% to 15%, the recovery of the export sector is expected to take time [2]. - Domestic low interest rates are driving housing prices up, effectively boosting consumption and investment, which helps mitigate some of the export weaknesses [3]. Group 4: Future Projections - The Swiss economy is projected to see GDP growth slow from 1.2% in 2025 to 1.0% in 2026, with an expected unemployment rate of 3.0% and inflation at only 0.4% [3]. - Institutions forecast that the CHF will continue to experience strong fluctuations, with limited volatility under the balance of opposing forces [3]. - Exchange rate predictions indicate that the USD/CHF will range between 0.79 and 0.81 throughout the year, while the EUR/CHF is expected to remain stable, with potential declines towards 0.91 by year-end [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing strength against the US dollar (USD), driven by the Reserve Bank of Australia's hawkish stance and expectations of potential intervention in the yen by Japan and the US [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate in Australia unexpectedly dropped from 4.3% to 4.1%, outperforming the market expectation of 4.4% [2]. - Employment increased significantly by 65,200 jobs, primarily driven by full-time positions [2]. - The national capacity utilization rate rose to 83.3%, the highest in 18 months, indicating that businesses are operating close to full capacity [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - There is a growing consensus that the Reserve Bank of Australia may need to raise interest rates in February due to signs of capacity constraints in the economy [2][3]. - The Australian Federal Bank's strategy team suggests that if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) exceeds a year-on-year increase of 4%, the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate hike in February will significantly increase [3]. - Despite differing opinions on the timing of rate hikes, there is a general agreement that the Reserve Bank of Australia can no longer maintain a loose monetary policy stance [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc (CHF) continues to strengthen against the US Dollar (USD), driven by its safe-haven appeal amid geopolitical tensions and diverging monetary policies between the US and Switzerland [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Movement - The USD/CHF exchange rate has shown a downward trend, breaking the key support level of 0.7752 and reaching a low of 0.7740, marking a new low for the period [1]. - The USD has faced selling pressure, with the exchange rate trading at 0.7767, reflecting a daily decline of 0.4358% [1]. - The CHF's safe-haven status is highlighted by ongoing global geopolitical tensions and cautious market sentiment regarding economic recovery, leading to increased demand for the CHF [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has maintained a 0% policy interest rate, with expectations that this will remain until at least the second half of 2027, despite weak inflation indicators [2]. - In contrast, the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 50 basis points in 2026, with the first cut anticipated in June, which narrows the interest rate differential and pressures the USD/CHF exchange rate [2]. - Swiss inflation remains weak, with January CPI showing a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 1.8% year-on-year, indicating mild deflationary pressures [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The short-term outlook for USD/CHF is bearish, with the price below the 0.78 level and no significant support levels below [2]. - Key support is identified at the 0.7740 low, and a break below this level could lead to further declines towards the 0.7700 mark [2]. - Resistance is seen at the 0.7800 level, which is crucial for any potential upward movement; failure to break above this level may hinder any rebound [2]. Group 4: Future Monitoring - Upcoming events to watch include the SNB's monetary policy meeting on March 19 and subsequent inflation and manufacturing data from Switzerland, as increased deflationary pressure could prompt a dovish shift in SNB policy [3]. - Monitoring of Federal Reserve officials' statements and US economic data is essential, as a rebound in the USD index could provide a temporary boost to the USD/CHF exchange rate [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc (CHF) has maintained a unique position as a safe-haven currency, supported by a combination of zero interest rate policy, regular foreign exchange interventions, and a differentiated economic backdrop, allowing it to avoid excessive appreciation while preserving its core value in a volatile global monetary environment [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is one of the few major central banks maintaining a zero interest rate, with a high threshold for reintroducing negative rates, contrasting sharply with the easing cycles of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [1]. - The SNB reaffirmed its commitment to a 0% policy rate until the second half of 2027, even with inflation projected at only 0.4% in 2026, due to concerns over the long-term negative effects of negative rates on the Swiss pension and banking sectors [1]. - The Swiss economy, being export-oriented, faces challenges from global demand slowdown, with watch exports declining by 7.3% year-on-year in November 2025, and GDP growth forecasted to slow from 1.2% to 1.0% in 2026, alongside an increase in unemployment to 3.0% [1]. Group 2: Supportive Factors for the Swiss Franc - Switzerland's macroeconomic advantages, such as a current account surplus consistently above 4% of GDP and a net international investment position exceeding 100% of GDP, bolster the CHF's safe-haven status [2]. - Despite facing a 39% tariff from the U.S. in 2025, Switzerland quickly negotiated a reduction to 15%, leading to a rapid recovery in the trade account, with gold exports increasing significantly from an average of 0.3 tons to 128.2 tons [2]. - Switzerland's low government debt ratio of 40% and decades of political neutrality make the CHF a preferred choice for safe-haven investments amid global risks, although central bank interventions moderate excessive appreciation [2]. Group 3: Exchange Rate Dynamics - The CHF has remained within a narrow trading range of 0.79-0.81 against the USD, with the SNB's proactive measures neutralizing the impact of interest rate differentials [3]. - The CHF's performance diverges from other non-USD currencies, maintaining stability even amid global capital flows triggered by monetary policy changes from the ECB and BoJ [3]. - Short-term forecasts suggest the USD/CHF will oscillate between 0.79-0.80, with the SNB's interventions setting clear boundaries for exchange rates [3]. Group 4: Future Considerations - Key variables to monitor include the escalation of global geopolitical risks, which could lead to significant inflows of safe-haven capital, potentially surpassing the SNB's intervention thresholds and driving unexpected CHF appreciation [4]. - Changes in the SNB's intervention tools may occur if export weaknesses intensify, possibly leading to increased foreign exchange interventions or adjustments to the current deposit rates to manage CHF valuation [4]. - Overall, the CHF's trajectory in 2026 represents a new approach for safe-haven currencies, balancing the preservation of its safe-haven attributes, the health of the export economy, and stable exchange rate movements through active central bank management [4].