曾被视为"避险常客"的日元，其稳固地位正遭遇越来越多的质疑，不仅让日元承受更大抛售压力，本周更 是跌至八个月来的低位。 尤其是本周，强硬保守派人物高市早苗意外赢得日本执政党领袖选举后，市场对日本政策走向的担忧加 剧，美元兑日元汇率顺势突破150关键关口，日元贬值压力进一步释放。 在日元吸引力下降的同时，投资者正加速转向其他对冲工具。高盛集团和美国银行的策略师认为，瑞士法 郎比日元更可靠且成本更低，本周瑞士法郎兑日元汇率连续创下历史新高，却仍挡不住多头入场。黄金、 白银凭借传统避险属性。 短期来看，全球波动率下降降低了紧急对冲需求，日元融资套利交易重新流行，这让日元逐渐脱离历史上 的避险角色，更容易被投机资金左右。 从亚洲金融危机到俄乌冲突等各类市场动荡时刻，日元总能凭借独特优势成为投资者的"避风港"。原因是 日本长期保持庞大的经常账户盈余，出口贸易带来的持续外汇收入，让日本拥有充足的外汇储备，一旦市 场出现风险，本土投资者会迅速回流资金，增持日元资产，推动日元汇率走高。 同时，过去日本政治体系稳定，政策变动平缓，加上深厚的本土投资者基础，进一步强化了日元的可靠 性，使得它在风险资产暴跌时，总能展现出较强的抗跌 ...

Group 1 - The Thai Baht has appreciated by 4.45% against the US dollar this year, while the Vietnamese Dong has depreciated by 8.47%, giving Vietnam a 12.92% competitive advantage in trade and tourism, putting pressure on Thailand [2] - Vietnam's economy is outperforming Thailand, with a GDP growth of 7.96% and an export growth of 18% in Q2 2025, compared to Thailand's GDP growth of 2.8% and export growth of 12.2% [2] - Despite higher growth and interest rates in Vietnam, the Vietnamese Dong has not strengthened due to the influx of speculative capital into Thailand [2][4] Group 2 - The influx of speculative capital is driven by short-term arbitrage opportunities, with potential annualized returns of up to 260% when leveraging the expected appreciation of the Thai Baht [4] - Thailand's foreign exchange reserves are robust, amounting to 52.4% of GDP, ranking fourth globally, which contributes to the Baht being viewed as a "safe haven currency" [6] - The Thai central bank has intervened in the foreign exchange market during periods of US dollar weakness, but the scale of intervention this year is not historically significant [8] Group 3 - Speculative funds have significantly entered the government bond market, reducing the 5-year government bond yield to 1.42%, alleviating financing pressure amid a budget deficit of 865 billion Baht for the fiscal year 2025 [9] - There are differing opinions on how Thailand should respond to the influx of hot money, with some suggesting a fixed exchange rate system while others advocate for allowing market-driven adjustments [8]

Core Insights - The VIX volatility index experienced a daily increase of 20.0%, reaching 19.35 [1] - The S&P 500 index declined by over 1.5%, while the Dow Jones fell by 1.2% and the Nasdaq dropped by 1.8% [1] - Spot gold prices rose by more than 1.3%, hitting a historical high above $3520 [1] - The US dollar appreciated against the Japanese yen by over 0.7% and against the Swiss franc by 0.4% [1] - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond increased by over 4.6 basis points, although it significantly deviated from the daily high of 4.3043% recorded at 20:33 Beijing time [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss franc is experiencing slight appreciation against the US dollar, influenced by recent economic data and trade tariffs imposed by the US on Swiss goods [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July increased by 0.2% year-on-year, compared to a 0.1% increase in June, indicating a slight upward trend but still close to negative territory [1] - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) may consider lowering interest rates below zero later this year due to the current economic conditions [1] Group 2: Currency Dynamics - The USD/CHF exchange rate opened at 0.8042 and is currently trading at 0.8055, reflecting a 0.15% increase [1] - The exchange rate has rebounded from a low of 0.7871, currently positioned above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at 0.7976 [1] - The upper Bollinger Band is at 0.8065, while the lower band is at 0.7887, indicating reduced volatility and a market in a consolidation phase [1] Group 3: Trade and Tariffs - The US has imposed a surprising 39% tariff on most Swiss goods, which is higher than previous signals from the Trump administration, potentially impacting Swiss exports [1] - The appreciation of the Swiss franc is reducing demand for Swiss export products, including pharmaceuticals and luxury watches [1]

Core Insights - The recent SWIFT report indicates that the share of the Renminbi (RMB) in global payment currencies rose to 3.2% in January 2022, marking a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month and reaching a four-year high, making it the fourth most active currency globally [1] - The increase in the RMB's share since 2021 is attributed to effective pandemic control measures in China and a stable economic recovery, which has supported international payments and trade surpluses [1] - The RMB's internationalization is a natural outcome of market dynamics, with the People's Bank of China reducing intervention in the foreign exchange market and implementing reforms to enhance the RMB's exchange rate formation mechanism [2] Group 1 - The RMB's rising share in global payments reflects its growing internationalization, supported by China's economic stability and strong export performance [1][2] - The RMB has shown characteristics of a safe-haven currency, maintaining stability against the backdrop of tightening U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical tensions [2] - The increase in the RMB's global payment share is expected to provide strong support for maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate [3] Group 2 - Direct investment in China saw a significant increase, with net inflows reaching $204.8 billion in 2021, doubling from 2020 [1] - The RMB's exchange rate has become more elastic since the "8·11" reform, with a daily average historical volatility of 3.9% from 2018 to 2021, compared to 2.2% from 2014 to 2015 [2] - The RMB's ability to reflect changes in the international environment and domestic supply-demand conditions enhances its resilience as an international currency [2]

Group 1 - Current spot gold trading around $3370.59, with a latest price of $3372.76 per ounce, showing a decline of 0.22% [1] - Gold price reached a high of $3384.89 and a low of $3370.49 during the trading session [1] - Market sentiment indicates a potential upward movement for gold prices due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] Group 2 - Traders have increased expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower borrowing costs during the September policy meeting, with a possibility of more than two rate cuts this year, each by at least 25 basis points [2] - Recent tariff announcements by the Trump administration on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports, along with existing tariffs on automobiles and steel, have heightened market uncertainty, potentially boosting commodity prices [2] - The lack of impactful economic data from the U.S. has left the dollar's exchange rate influenced by comments from key members of the Federal Open Market Committee, which may drive investors towards safe-haven assets like gold [2] Group 3 - The daily gold chart indicates that prices are encountering buyers near the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at around $3347 per ounce [3] - The 100-day and 200-day moving averages maintain a bullish slope below the short-term average, suggesting a dominant bullish trend [3] - Overall, while the risk for gold prices leans towards the upside, there is a lack of strong momentum [3]

Core Viewpoint - In times of market volatility, investors typically turn to safe-haven assets such as gold, U.S. Treasuries, and currencies like the yen, dollar, and Swiss franc. However, the Singapore dollar is emerging as a potential new safe-haven currency due to its defensive characteristics during financial stress, particularly in Asia [1][3]. Group 1: Singapore Dollar's Emerging Role - The Singapore dollar has been functioning as a "quasi-safe-haven" currency, especially in Asia and emerging markets, despite its global status being lower than traditional safe-haven currencies [3]. - Year-to-date, the Singapore dollar has appreciated approximately 6% against the U.S. dollar, with projections from Jefferies suggesting it could reach parity with the dollar within five years [3]. - Analysts attribute the Singapore dollar's safe-haven attributes to Singapore's robust institutional framework, solid economic foundation, and prudent fiscal policies [3]. Group 2: Unique Monetary Policy Framework - Singapore's unique monetary policy framework provides "extraordinary stability" to the Singapore dollar, allowing it to float within an undisclosed policy band against a basket of major trading partner currencies [3]. - The width of this policy band is estimated to be around 4%, which effectively reduces short-term volatility risks [3]. Group 3: Challenges to Global Safe-Haven Status - Despite its potential, the Singapore dollar faces challenges in becoming a global safe-haven currency, as it currently holds only 2% of the foreign exchange market share compared to 88% for the U.S. dollar, 17% for the yen, and 5% for the Swiss franc [4]. - The small size of Singapore's economy limits the trading volume and market depth of the Singapore dollar compared to the yen and Swiss franc [6]. - The high export-to-GDP ratio of 178.8% makes the Monetary Authority of Singapore cautious about excessive appreciation of the Singapore dollar, as it could harm competitiveness [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts believe that while the Singapore dollar may not rival the U.S. dollar or yen, it could gradually achieve a status similar to that of the Swiss franc [6]. - The increasing global search for safe-haven assets may position the Singapore dollar favorably in the future, with some analysts suggesting it could evolve from an Asian safe haven to a global one over time [6].

Core Viewpoint - In uncertain times, investors are turning to safe-haven assets such as gold, U.S. Treasury bonds, and currencies like the yen, dollar, and Swiss franc, which are expected to retain or increase value during market turmoil. However, the Singapore dollar is emerging as a potential new alternative safe-haven currency [1]. Group 1: Singapore Dollar as a Safe-Haven Currency - Analysts suggest that the Singapore dollar (SGD) is acting as a "quasi-safe-haven" currency, particularly within Asia and emerging markets, despite not having the same global status as traditional safe-haven currencies [1]. - The SGD has appreciated approximately 6% against the U.S. dollar this year, with Jefferies predicting it may reach parity with the dollar within the next five years [1]. - Singapore's strong institutional framework, resilient economic base, and robust policy-making, especially in fiscal prudence, contribute to the SGD's potential as a safe haven [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Stability - Singapore's monetary policy framework provides "extraordinary stability" to the SGD, which is sought after by safe-haven funds. Unlike most countries, Singapore manages its currency through a policy band rather than interest rates, allowing the SGD to fluctuate within a set range [2]. - The estimated width of this policy band is around 4%, which limits volatility and provides more certainty in the short term [2]. Group 3: Challenges to Global Acceptance - Despite the positive trajectory, the SGD faces challenges in becoming a widely accepted global safe-haven currency, primarily due to the small size of its market. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) reported that the SGD accounted for only 2% of the foreign exchange market, compared to 88% for the U.S. dollar [3]. - The managed nature of Singapore's currency policy, while providing stability, also restricts market speculation and large position builds, limiting liquidity and depth, which are critical characteristics sought by investors in a true global safe haven [3]. - Singapore's economy is heavily reliant on exports, with exports projected to account for 178.8% of GDP in 2024, which may also pose challenges for the SGD's global standing [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts believe that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) may not want the SGD to appreciate excessively, as this could undermine Singapore's competitiveness [4]. - The SGD could play a significant role in diversifying currency risk, with potential to be viewed as "Asia's Swiss franc" over time, although it may not reach the status of the yen or dollar [4]. - The establishment of a safe-haven status typically requires decades of crisis response behavior, and while the SGD has performed well during Asian economic downturns, it has not yet become the preferred safe haven during global economic slowdowns [4].

Core Viewpoint - The narrative suggesting the decline of the US dollar as the primary safe-haven currency is considered premature and somewhat exaggerated [1] Group 1 - The US dollar continues to hold its position as the leading safe-haven currency [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S. attacks on Iran, which have led to increased demand for safe-haven currencies and rising oil prices, pushing the U.S. dollar to its highest level in nearly a month [1][2] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose by 0.6%, reaching its highest level since May 30, driven by concerns that high oil prices could exacerbate inflation and delay interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The escalation of Middle Eastern conflicts has caused the dollar to rebound from a three-year low, recording its strongest weekly performance since late February [1] Group 2 - Investors are closely monitoring Iran's potential retaliatory actions against U.S. and Israeli attacks, particularly regarding the shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz, which are crucial for oil and gas transportation [2] - Rising oil prices may increase inflation, making the Federal Reserve less inclined to cut interest rates in the coming months, to avoid a scenario of stagflation [2] - U.S. Treasury prices fell on Monday, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising by 3 basis points to 4.34%, as traders adjusted their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [2]