12月17日亚洲早市，美元兑瑞郎报0.7951，微涨0.0377%，日内波动区间为0.7942-0.7954，呈现窄幅整 理态势。回顾近期表现，汇价在12月11日瑞士央行议息会议后小幅下探，一度触及11月中旬以来低位， 随后陷入震荡，目前市场交投情绪相对谨慎。 此外，全球风险情绪与贸易环境也对汇价形成扰动。作为传统避险货币，瑞郎易受地缘政治与全球经济 不确定性影响，而美国关税政策调整则关乎瑞士出口前景，此前美国对瑞士商品关税税率从39%降至 15%，一定程度上改善了瑞士经济前景。同时，瑞士央行重申仍准备在必要时积极干预外汇市场，这一 表态也为瑞郎走势增添了不确定性。 技术面来看，美元兑瑞郎短期核心波动区间为0.7940-0.7960，0.7940附近构成关键支撑，若跌破或进一 步下探前期低位；上方阻力集中在0.7960-0.7980区间。后续需重点关注美国核心经济数据、瑞士通胀数 据以及美联储与瑞士央行官员的最新表态，这些因素将决定汇价能否摆脱当前窄幅震荡格局。 核心驱动因素聚焦于瑞美央行政策走向、瑞士通胀与经济数据表现及全球风险情绪三大维度：政策层 面，瑞士央行于12月11日连续第二次维持关键政策利率在0% ...

12月11日美元兑瑞郎报0.7986，较前一交易日微跌0.1251%，交易区间0.7986-0.8001，呈窄幅震荡。当 前市场聚焦美联储与瑞士央行年末议息会议，叠加美瑞贸易调整及全球风险情绪变化，汇价短期走势待 政策信号指引。 技术层面分析来看，美元兑瑞郎短期内仍处于震荡整理的格局之中。从关键点位来看，短期阻力位主要 聚焦于0.8085区域，该位置叠加了前期成交密集区的压力，对汇价上行构成明显阻碍；下方支撑区域则 集中在0.8040至0.8050区间，若该支撑区间被有效跌破，大概率会引发汇价的阶段性回调，进一步下探 0.8030-0.8020区间。长期来看，美瑞两国的货币政策分化趋势、全球市场风险情绪的波动节奏以及瑞士 经济的复苏进程，将是决定美元兑瑞郎长期走势的三大核心要素。据中金公司（601995）发布的最新研 究报告预测，2026年美元兑瑞郎将维持高位震荡行情，四个季度的汇率中枢分别为0.8、0.79、0.78和 0.78。 展望后市，投资者需重点关注三大核心信号：一是瑞士央行12月利率决议的具体表述及后续政策动向， 这将直接影响瑞郎汇率走势；二是美联储降息落地后，市场对其2026年后续政策路径的预期 ...

Group 1 - The recent escalation of trade disputes has heightened market risk aversion, impacting the global foreign exchange market [1] - Safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and euro are in demand, while high-risk currencies like the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are being sold off [1] - The U.S. dollar, despite its safe-haven status, faces downward pressure in the event of further escalation, although short-term support may persist due to reassessment of its safe-haven status and expectations of U.S. policy adjustments [1] Group 2 - Investors are closely monitoring the NFIB small business survey data for signals regarding economic direction, while Fed Chair Powell is expected to maintain a cautious stance in his upcoming speech [1] - ING analysts predict that the U.S. dollar index may decline to lower levels by the end of the year as employment data worsens [1] Group 3 - The euro is unlikely to achieve a substantial rebound against the U.S. dollar in the absence of significant positive news, with the political situation in France being a major drag [2] - The upcoming budget proposal by French Prime Minister Lecornu is directly related to a confidence vote, and a potential government collapse could prevent the euro from benefiting from trade tensions, possibly leading it to test the 1.150 level against the dollar [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen, once considered a safe-haven currency, is facing increasing skepticism regarding its stability, leading to significant selling pressure and a drop to an eight-month low this week [1]. Group 1: Historical Context - The yen has historically served as a safe haven during market turmoil, such as the Asian financial crisis and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, due to Japan's large current account surplus and consistent foreign exchange income from exports [3]. - Japan's stable political system and deep domestic investor base have reinforced the yen's reliability, allowing it to exhibit strong resilience during downturns in risk assets [3]. Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - The yen's performance as a risk hedging tool has become increasingly unstable, with recent trends showing a negative correlation between the USD/JPY exchange rate and the S&P 500 index, as investors shift towards gold, silver, and the Swiss franc as preferred hedging options [3]. - Following the unexpected victory of conservative figure Sanae Takaichi in the ruling party leadership election, market concerns regarding Japan's policy direction intensified, causing the USD/JPY exchange rate to breach the critical 150 level, further increasing depreciation pressure on the yen [3]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - As the yen's attractiveness declines, investors are accelerating their shift towards alternative hedging instruments, with strategists from Goldman Sachs and Bank of America suggesting that the Swiss franc is more reliable and cost-effective than the yen [4]. - The Swiss franc has reached historical highs against the yen, while traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver continue to attract investors [4]. - In the short term, decreased global volatility has reduced the demand for urgent hedging, leading to a resurgence of yen funding arbitrage trades, which allows speculative funds to exert greater influence over the yen [4].

Group 1 - The Thai Baht has appreciated by 4.45% against the US dollar this year, while the Vietnamese Dong has depreciated by 8.47%, giving Vietnam a 12.92% competitive advantage in trade and tourism, putting pressure on Thailand [2] - Vietnam's economy is outperforming Thailand, with a GDP growth of 7.96% and an export growth of 18% in Q2 2025, compared to Thailand's GDP growth of 2.8% and export growth of 12.2% [2] - Despite higher growth and interest rates in Vietnam, the Vietnamese Dong has not strengthened due to the influx of speculative capital into Thailand [2][4] Group 2 - The influx of speculative capital is driven by short-term arbitrage opportunities, with potential annualized returns of up to 260% when leveraging the expected appreciation of the Thai Baht [4] - Thailand's foreign exchange reserves are robust, amounting to 52.4% of GDP, ranking fourth globally, which contributes to the Baht being viewed as a "safe haven currency" [6] - The Thai central bank has intervened in the foreign exchange market during periods of US dollar weakness, but the scale of intervention this year is not historically significant [8] Group 3 - Speculative funds have significantly entered the government bond market, reducing the 5-year government bond yield to 1.42%, alleviating financing pressure amid a budget deficit of 865 billion Baht for the fiscal year 2025 [9] - There are differing opinions on how Thailand should respond to the influx of hot money, with some suggesting a fixed exchange rate system while others advocate for allowing market-driven adjustments [8]

Core Insights - The VIX volatility index experienced a daily increase of 20.0%, reaching 19.35 [1] - The S&P 500 index declined by over 1.5%, while the Dow Jones fell by 1.2% and the Nasdaq dropped by 1.8% [1] - Spot gold prices rose by more than 1.3%, hitting a historical high above $3520 [1] - The US dollar appreciated against the Japanese yen by over 0.7% and against the Swiss franc by 0.4% [1] - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond increased by over 4.6 basis points, although it significantly deviated from the daily high of 4.3043% recorded at 20:33 Beijing time [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss franc is experiencing slight appreciation against the US dollar, influenced by recent economic data and trade tariffs imposed by the US on Swiss goods [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July increased by 0.2% year-on-year, compared to a 0.1% increase in June, indicating a slight upward trend but still close to negative territory [1] - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) may consider lowering interest rates below zero later this year due to the current economic conditions [1] Group 2: Currency Dynamics - The USD/CHF exchange rate opened at 0.8042 and is currently trading at 0.8055, reflecting a 0.15% increase [1] - The exchange rate has rebounded from a low of 0.7871, currently positioned above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at 0.7976 [1] - The upper Bollinger Band is at 0.8065, while the lower band is at 0.7887, indicating reduced volatility and a market in a consolidation phase [1] Group 3: Trade and Tariffs - The US has imposed a surprising 39% tariff on most Swiss goods, which is higher than previous signals from the Trump administration, potentially impacting Swiss exports [1] - The appreciation of the Swiss franc is reducing demand for Swiss export products, including pharmaceuticals and luxury watches [1]

Core Insights - The recent SWIFT report indicates that the share of the Renminbi (RMB) in global payment currencies rose to 3.2% in January 2022, marking a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month and reaching a four-year high, making it the fourth most active currency globally [1] - The increase in the RMB's share since 2021 is attributed to effective pandemic control measures in China and a stable economic recovery, which has supported international payments and trade surpluses [1] - The RMB's internationalization is a natural outcome of market dynamics, with the People's Bank of China reducing intervention in the foreign exchange market and implementing reforms to enhance the RMB's exchange rate formation mechanism [2] Group 1 - The RMB's rising share in global payments reflects its growing internationalization, supported by China's economic stability and strong export performance [1][2] - The RMB has shown characteristics of a safe-haven currency, maintaining stability against the backdrop of tightening U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical tensions [2] - The increase in the RMB's global payment share is expected to provide strong support for maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate [3] Group 2 - Direct investment in China saw a significant increase, with net inflows reaching $204.8 billion in 2021, doubling from 2020 [1] - The RMB's exchange rate has become more elastic since the "8·11" reform, with a daily average historical volatility of 3.9% from 2018 to 2021, compared to 2.2% from 2014 to 2015 [2] - The RMB's ability to reflect changes in the international environment and domestic supply-demand conditions enhances its resilience as an international currency [2]

Group 1 - Current spot gold trading around $3370.59, with a latest price of $3372.76 per ounce, showing a decline of 0.22% [1] - Gold price reached a high of $3384.89 and a low of $3370.49 during the trading session [1] - Market sentiment indicates a potential upward movement for gold prices due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] Group 2 - Traders have increased expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower borrowing costs during the September policy meeting, with a possibility of more than two rate cuts this year, each by at least 25 basis points [2] - Recent tariff announcements by the Trump administration on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports, along with existing tariffs on automobiles and steel, have heightened market uncertainty, potentially boosting commodity prices [2] - The lack of impactful economic data from the U.S. has left the dollar's exchange rate influenced by comments from key members of the Federal Open Market Committee, which may drive investors towards safe-haven assets like gold [2] Group 3 - The daily gold chart indicates that prices are encountering buyers near the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at around $3347 per ounce [3] - The 100-day and 200-day moving averages maintain a bullish slope below the short-term average, suggesting a dominant bullish trend [3] - Overall, while the risk for gold prices leans towards the upside, there is a lack of strong momentum [3]

Core Viewpoint - In times of market volatility, investors typically turn to safe-haven assets such as gold, U.S. Treasuries, and currencies like the yen, dollar, and Swiss franc. However, the Singapore dollar is emerging as a potential new safe-haven currency due to its defensive characteristics during financial stress, particularly in Asia [1][3]. Group 1: Singapore Dollar's Emerging Role - The Singapore dollar has been functioning as a "quasi-safe-haven" currency, especially in Asia and emerging markets, despite its global status being lower than traditional safe-haven currencies [3]. - Year-to-date, the Singapore dollar has appreciated approximately 6% against the U.S. dollar, with projections from Jefferies suggesting it could reach parity with the dollar within five years [3]. - Analysts attribute the Singapore dollar's safe-haven attributes to Singapore's robust institutional framework, solid economic foundation, and prudent fiscal policies [3]. Group 2: Unique Monetary Policy Framework - Singapore's unique monetary policy framework provides "extraordinary stability" to the Singapore dollar, allowing it to float within an undisclosed policy band against a basket of major trading partner currencies [3]. - The width of this policy band is estimated to be around 4%, which effectively reduces short-term volatility risks [3]. Group 3: Challenges to Global Safe-Haven Status - Despite its potential, the Singapore dollar faces challenges in becoming a global safe-haven currency, as it currently holds only 2% of the foreign exchange market share compared to 88% for the U.S. dollar, 17% for the yen, and 5% for the Swiss franc [4]. - The small size of Singapore's economy limits the trading volume and market depth of the Singapore dollar compared to the yen and Swiss franc [6]. - The high export-to-GDP ratio of 178.8% makes the Monetary Authority of Singapore cautious about excessive appreciation of the Singapore dollar, as it could harm competitiveness [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts believe that while the Singapore dollar may not rival the U.S. dollar or yen, it could gradually achieve a status similar to that of the Swiss franc [6]. - The increasing global search for safe-haven assets may position the Singapore dollar favorably in the future, with some analysts suggesting it could evolve from an Asian safe haven to a global one over time [6].