Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is intensifying scrutiny on Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook following allegations of mortgage fraud, with Treasury Secretary Yellen calling for an internal review of the Fed [1][2][3] Group 1: Allegations and Responses - Treasury Secretary Yellen questioned Cook's lack of denial regarding the fraud allegations, suggesting that if proven true, Cook should face prosecution [2] - The allegations stem from claims that Cook misrepresented properties in mortgage applications, potentially to secure better loan terms [8][9] - Cook's legal team has stated that Trump lacks the authority to dismiss her and plans to challenge the termination in court, emphasizing the importance of the Fed's independence [10][11] Group 2: Political Implications - If Trump successfully replaces Cook, he would gain a majority on the seven-member Federal Reserve Board, which could influence monetary policy decisions [3][5] - Trump's Chief Economic Advisor has publicly suggested that Cook should resign during the legal proceedings, further escalating political tensions [6][7] - Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren defended Cook, arguing that the allegations do not justify her dismissal from the Fed [7] Group 3: Legal and Institutional Context - The legal framework governing the dismissal of Fed governors requires "just cause," typically interpreted as misconduct or malfeasance [9] - The outcome of Cook's potential lawsuit could have significant implications for the independence of the Federal Reserve and the limits of presidential power [10]

华尔街见闻此前提及，美国总统特朗普周一社交媒体上指控库克，以涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈为由"立即"解雇 了这位美联储理事。 作为首位担任美联储理事的黑人女性，库克通过其律师否认了所有指控。她的律师Abbe Lowell在一份 声明中称： 特朗普仅仅依据一封举报信就试图解雇她，这在事实和法律上都缺乏依据。 总统绝对有权在"充分理由"下解雇一位美联储理事，而且我认为相关指控是严重的。 值得注意的是，哈塞特曾被特朗普公开考虑提名为下任美联储主席。 特朗普政府高级经济顾问哈塞特表示，美联储理事会成员丽莎.库克应在其法律地位受到质疑期间主动 休假。 美联储本身目前在此事上保持中立，表示将遵守法院的最终裁决。美联储在周二的一份声明中称： 周三据报道，哈塞特在白宫外表示，如果他处于库克的境地，会选择休假，并称这是"体面的做法"。 他指出法律允许总统"充分理由下"解除美联储理事： 美联储表示，在此期间将遵循司法程序的裁定。这场围绕美联储理事任期安全性的法律战，最终可能升 级至美国最高法院，其判决将对美联储的独立性产生深远影响。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状 ...

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under threat following Trump's dismissal of board member Lisa Cook, leading to potential pressure on U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar, while increasing the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset [1][4]. Market Volatility - Trump's dismissal of Lisa Cook has intensified the conflict between him and the Federal Reserve, with Cook asserting that Trump lacks the legal authority to fire her [2]. - Following the announcement, the dollar weakened but later recovered, while U.S. Treasury yields mostly declined, with the 2-year yield down 4.26 basis points to 3.672% and the 10-year yield down 0.78 basis points to 4.261% [2]. - The stock market showed resilience, with all three major indices rising, partly due to Powell's indication of a possible rate cut in September [3]. Gold's Appeal - The potential loss of Federal Reserve independence is seen as a direct attack on its core principles, which could diminish the attractiveness of U.S. assets [4]. - Gold prices surged to a two-week high, closing at $3,393.62 per ounce, up $28.02 or 0.83% [4]. - Analysts predict that if the Fed loses its independence, gold will become the preferred safe haven for investors, with central banks expected to purchase around 1,000 tons of gold this year [5]. Investment Strategies - In times of financial asset risk, tangible assets like gold and real estate are expected to become safe havens, especially if the Fed's independence is compromised [5]. - The loss of Fed independence poses long-term risks to U.S. bonds and the dollar, prompting suggestions for international investments in stable growth, low-inflation countries as a hedge against rising U.S. inflation [5].

然而，在特朗普的战略棋局中，库克仅仅是一枚棋子。其真正的目的，在于夺取对美联储的控制权。美联储理事会共有七个席位，在库克被解职前，由特 朗普任命的理事占据两席（米歇尔·鲍曼和克里斯托弗·沃勒），而由拜登任命的理事则占据四席（库克、库格勒、博斯蒂克、布雷纳德）。一旦成功解除库 克的职务，特朗普便可提名新人填补空缺，从而使己方阵营在理事会中占据多数席位，掌握更大的话语权。这无疑是一招釜底抽薪之计。 特朗普此举的背后，隐藏着他对美联储现行货币政策的不满。他一直对美联储主席鲍威尔的加息政策颇有微词，认为高利率政策扼杀了房地产市场，加重 了普通民众的购房负担，同时也对整体经济造成了负面影响。他希望美联储能够尽快降息，以刺激经济增长，并为自己2024年的总统竞选铺平道路。然 而，美联储的独立性使其难以受到总统的直接干预。为了达到自己的目的，特朗普选择冒险出击，试图通过掌控理事会多数席位的方式，迫使美联储改变 政策方向。 在全球金融界掀起轩然大波的，莫过于前总统唐纳德·特朗普解雇美联储理事莉萨·库克一事。此举如同平地一声雷，打破了美国百年来的政治惯例，撼动了 美联储作为独立央行的根基。要知道，美联储的独立性，向来被视为美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is intensifying scrutiny on Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook following allegations of mortgage fraud, with Treasury Secretary Yellen calling for an internal review of the Fed [1][2][3]. Group 1: Allegations and Responses - Treasury Secretary Yellen questioned Cook's lack of denial regarding the fraud allegations, suggesting that if proven true, she should be prosecuted [2]. - The allegations stem from claims made by Bill Pulte, the head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, who accused Cook of submitting fraudulent mortgage applications for properties in Michigan and Georgia [9]. - Pulte stated that Cook claimed both properties were her primary residence to secure better loan terms, which constitutes serious violations of mortgage laws [9]. Group 2: Political Implications - If Trump successfully removes Cook and appoints a replacement, he would gain a majority on the seven-member Federal Reserve Board, potentially influencing monetary policy towards aggressive rate cuts [3][5]. - Yellen emphasized the independence of the Federal Reserve Board members, despite the political pressure from the Trump administration [3][4]. Group 3: Legal Challenges - Cook plans to challenge her dismissal in court, asserting that Trump lacks the authority to remove her without just cause, which is typically defined as misconduct [10]. - The Federal Reserve has stated that Cook's long-term tenure and protection from arbitrary dismissal are crucial for ensuring that monetary policy decisions are based on data and economic analysis [10][11].

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market on August 26 saw more declines than gains, with notable increases in peanut, timber, NR, asphalt, SC crude oil, and Shanghai lead contracts rising over 0.5% [1] - The main contracts for aluminum oxide and coking coal fell over 3%, while industrial silicon, shipping Europe line, coke, and polysilicon dropped over 2% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1436.98 points, down 4.61 points or 0.32% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - SC crude oil main contract briefly surpassed 500 yuan/barrel but ended with a modest increase of 0.53% [2] - Geopolitical tensions have eased, contributing to a rebound in oil prices, while concerns about potential disruptions in Russian oil supply have increased [2] - Analysts suggest that the oil market is adjusting from overly optimistic expectations regarding Russia-Ukraine negotiations, with long-term pressures from OPEC+ production increases and seasonal demand weakening [2] Group 3 - The main contract for gold opened strong but faced fluctuations, ultimately closing up 0.28% [3] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have increased, positively impacting precious metals [3] - The market remains optimistic about precious metals in the context of a weak dollar and expectations of Fed easing, although short-term adjustments may occur if no further dovish signals are provided [3] Group 4 - Aluminum oxide main contract led the market decline with a drop of 3.49%, attributed to high production capacity and limited demand changes [5] - The supply of aluminum oxide is expected to remain loose, with current spot prices adjusting downwards by 10-15 yuan [5] - Coking coal main contract fell 3.17% due to weak market sentiment and limited demand growth, despite some support from high terminal demand [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting in September is considered "live," indicating potential for action based on real-time economic conditions [1] - New York Fed President Williams stated that the balance of risks between employment and inflation has shifted, suggesting that the Fed may need to adjust its policy stance [1] - Williams emphasized that current interest rates are at a "moderately tight" level, indicating that even if a rate cut occurs, monetary policy will still retain some degree of tightness in the short term [1] Group 2 - Following the dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook by Trump, there is increasing political pressure on Federal Reserve officials, with accusations of mortgage fraud being levied against Cook [2] - Williams refrained from commenting specifically on the Cook incident but underscored the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence, which has proven to be extremely valuable globally [2]

芦哲认为，美联储明年降息预期升温，而对美联储独立性的担忧预计令黄金价格阶段性维持高位、美债 期限溢价走阔。 从市场反馈来看，特朗普解雇库克的消息公布后，2年美债利率骤降，表明市场预期随着2026年5月美联 储轮换新主席，更多"特朗普派"的理事就职将令美联储明年的降息预期升温。与此同时，对美联储独立 性和美元信用的担忧也令10年期美债收益率上涨，美元指数一度由98.5下跌至98.1，黄金价格由3351美 元/盎司上涨至3377美元/盎司。 "资产价格的这一表现与今年7月16—17日特朗普威胁解雇鲍威尔风波时一致。当时，在17日特朗普否认 计划解雇鲍威尔、鲍威尔回应美联储相关工程符合规范后，市场迅速企稳。"芦哲表示，就此次而言， 美元指数已在下跌后迅速回稳，而黄金价格仍在高位，显示随着事件发酵而前景未明，市场对美联储独 立性的担忧仍未消除，预计后续法律层面的进展仍将对资产价格产生扰动。 东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲分析，当前美联储理事会中沃勒和鲍曼两位理事均由特朗普提名，未来如果 特朗普提名的新理事米兰能够获得参议院批准，并且在成功罢免库克后再提名另一位新理事，则理事会 中将有4人与特朗普立场一致，超过半数，特朗普对 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market showed mixed performance at the opening, with all major indices turning positive by 10:40 PM [1] - Major Chinese companies such as Li Auto, Xpeng Motors, and Meituan experienced significant declines, with Meituan's stock dropping nearly 10% after reporting a 89% year-on-year decline in adjusted net profit for Q2 [3][14] - The announcement of a competitive environment affecting Meituan's profitability highlights the challenges faced by companies in the food delivery sector [3] Group 2 - Gold prices experienced volatility, dropping below $3,380 per ounce [6] - Silver also saw a decline, with prices falling over 1% [8] - The Federal Reserve officials have reiterated a dovish stance on interest rate cuts, indicating potential adjustments in monetary policy [9][11] Group 3 - President Trump announced the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns about the independence of the Fed and its implications for monetary policy [12][14] - Market reactions included a decline in the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, reflecting uncertainty regarding future policy directions [14] - Analysts suggest that the upcoming Fed chair nomination could influence market expectations for interest rate changes, with a potential focus on dovish policies [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under threat following Trump's dismissal of board member Lisa Cook, leading to potential pressure on U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar, while increasing the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset [1][4]. Market Volatility - Trump's ongoing conflict with the Federal Reserve continues, highlighted by his announcement to fire Lisa Cook, which he claims is due to alleged past mortgage fraud [2]. - Cook disputes the legality of her dismissal, stating that Trump lacks the authority to remove her without just cause, as per U.S. law [2]. - Following the announcement, the dollar weakened but later recovered, while U.S. Treasury yields mostly declined, with the 2-year yield down 4.26 basis points to 3.672% and the 10-year yield down 0.78 basis points to 4.261% [2]. Stock Market Resilience - The U.S. stock market showed relative resilience, with major indices rising, partly due to expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3]. - Analysts suggest that the market's muted response to the political turmoil may indicate investor fatigue or uncertainty regarding the legality of Trump's actions [3]. - The potential appointment of Trump's nominee Stephen Miran could further shift the balance of power within the Federal Reserve [3]. Gold's Appeal - The attack on the Federal Reserve's independence is seen as a direct threat to its credibility, which could diminish the attractiveness of U.S. assets [4]. - Gold prices surged to a two-week high, closing at $3,393.62 per ounce, reflecting increased demand as a hedge against inflation and political uncertainty [4]. - Analysts predict that if the Federal Reserve loses its independence, gold will become the preferred safe haven for investors, with central banks expected to purchase around 1,000 tons of gold this year [5]. Investment Strategies - In times of financial risk, tangible assets like gold and real estate are expected to become safe havens, especially if the Federal Reserve's independence is compromised [5]. - The loss of the Federal Reserve's independence could pose long-term risks to U.S. bonds and the dollar, prompting investors to consider international investments in stable, low-inflation countries as a hedge against rising U.S. inflation [5].