作者： 陶川 张云杰 钟渝梅 一方面，当前环境下人民币贬值"弊大于利"。 面对高额关税，人民币贬值对冲外贸的效果微乎其微，反而可能加剧资金外流的风险。从 近年经验来看， 7.35 （美元兑人民币）或是需要"坚守"的底线。 另一方面，人民币贬值也与我国"捍卫多边主义"的基调不符。 近年来，其他主要亚洲货币基本"锚定"人民币汇率波动。若人民币"失 守"，可能引起其他经济体的"竞争性"贬值，对稳定市场、构建反制同盟等均有不利影响。 其次，降准或快于降息，辅之于结构性货币政策利率调降。 为什么降准优先于降息？ 从 2023 年以来的历次操作来看，降准开始更多承载稳定市场的功能。尤其在 2024 年 12 月政治局会议上，首次 将"稳住楼市股市"作为经济工作的重点任务。 考虑到关税已落地、二季度政府债供给压力上行等，预计降准将先行落地以对冲市场下 跌。 如我们上篇报告《 关税风暴：政策对冲的经济账 》所述，随着关税风险的兑现， 当前市场的核心矛盾已转化为经济下行和政策对冲的角 力。 打铁还需自身硬，清明假期最后一天官媒的发声，表明决策层已经就应对冲击做好了各种预案， 我们预计 4 月底的政治局会议将给 增量的储备政策定 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.836 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 59.8%, and a net profit of 733 million yuan, up 55.3% year-on-year [1] - The company’s core customers, including PMI (Stanley and Starbucks), generated revenue of 2.472 billion yuan, a 63.0% increase year-on-year, accounting for 87.2% of total revenue [2] - The company is expected to maintain high growth in Q1 2025, despite some short-term profit pressures due to external factors [2] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 37.7%, down 3.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 25.8%, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 849 million yuan, 1.029 billion yuan, and 1.246 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12.3X, 10.2X, and 8.4X [4] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 1.775 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 41.0% [7] - The company’s net profit for 2023 was 472 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 73.6% [7] - The gross margin for 2023 was 40.7%, while the return on equity (ROE) was 36.1% [7] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 4.54 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22.20 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4][6] Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the release of pent-up demand in the U.S. real estate market and the completion of overseas production capacity, which will enhance earnings certainty [4][6] - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly adjusted down to $1.345 billion and $1.632 billion, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at $1.940 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 19.9%, 21.3%, and 18.9% [4][7] - The current valuation reflects significant market concerns regarding tariffs and potential U.S. economic recession, but the company's strong Milwaukee brand and ongoing improvements in weaker areas are expected to drive revenue growth [4][6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for 2024 is projected at $14.622 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, and is expected to reach $16.045 billion in 2025, representing a 9.7% increase [7] - Net profit for 2024 is estimated at $1.122 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, and is expected to grow to $1.345 billion in 2025, reflecting a 19.9% increase [7] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 39.5% in 2023 to 40.5% in 2025, while the net margin is projected to rise from 7.1% to 8.4% during the same period [7] - The diluted EPS is forecasted to increase from $0.5 in 2023 to $0.7 in 2025, with a corresponding P/E ratio decreasing from 27.6 to 20.0 [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q2 fiscal year 2025, net sales were $108.5 million, representing an 8.4% growth compared to $100.1 million in the prior year quarter, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of year-over-year sales growth [12] - GAAP operating income was $11.7 million, or 10.7% of sales, while adjusted operating income, excluding a $5 million pretax gain from the sale of a facility, was $6.7 million, or 6.1% of net sales, reflecting a 150 basis point increase from the prior year quarter [12][13] - The company generated $6.7 million of operating cash flow and ended the quarter debt-free, with a cash balance of $11.8 million [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales growth was broad-based, with the Flexsteel brand core markets up 7%, while the home styles ready-to-assemble brand saw a decline of nearly 30% due to competitive pressures [25][26] - Expanded market initiatives, including ZCliner and Flex Casegoods, contributed to a 92% year-over-year growth [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Retailer appointments increased by 18% compared to the prior year, with strong engagement from top 100 retailers [5] - Overall industry demand remains soft, but improved traffic trends and sales close rates during the holiday season provide optimism for modest growth in calendar 2025 [4] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on driving innovation, enhancing customer experience, and maintaining a diversified portfolio of growth initiatives [19] - Plans to mitigate tariff risks include identifying new sources of supply and dual sourcing products to enhance supply chain agility [10][37] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed a moderately positive outlook for the industry and broader economy, but noted potential adverse impacts from policy changes under the new administration [7] - The company remains confident in its ability to deliver growth exceeding industry averages, barring any highly disruptive external events [11][19] Other Important Information - The company plans to prioritize high ROI investments in new product development and marketing while managing SG&A costs in the range of 15% to 15.5% of sales [32] - Capital expenditures for Q3 are expected to be between $700,000 and $1 million, primarily for ERP system modernization [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: What were the main reasons for revenue being better than guidance? - Management attributed the outperformance to broad-based growth across nearly all business elements, driven by new product development and enhanced customer experience [22][24] Question: What is the outlook on ocean freight costs? - Ocean freight rates remain volatile, and the company plans to continue assessing the situation while passing costs through to maintain retail price points [28][30] Question: How should SG&A be viewed going forward? - SG&A is expected to be managed thoughtfully, aiming to maintain it in the 15% to 15.5% of sales range while reinvesting in high ROI initiatives [31][32] Question: What would be the financial impact of a 25% tariff on Mexico? - A 25% tariff could increase costs by $1.5 million to $2 million per month, but the company has strategies in place to mitigate this impact [33][34] Question: What are the cash priorities moving forward? - The company aims to maintain a cushion of cash on the balance sheet while reinvesting 70% into high ROI initiatives, with potential returns to shareholders if attractive options are not available [39]