证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 哈尔斯(002615) | 投资评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 上次评级 | 买入 | 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 哈尔斯：战略合作小黄鸭落地，加速突破品 牌成长边界 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 27 日 [Table_S 事件：小黄鸭德盈发布公告，已于 ummary] 2 月与哈尔斯签立战略合作协议，截至公 告日期，哈尔斯已间接持有小黄鸭 0.27 亿股股份（占股本约 2.7%）。根据 小黄鸭德盈公告，双方将在内地成立合资公司（哈尔斯控股），专注于小黄 鸭家族品牌、其他国际潮流 IP 的联名杯壶设计、销售与品牌运营。未来双 方将共同构建潮流设计+柔性制造+全域营销协同体系， ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 哈尔斯(002615) | 投资评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 上次评级 | 买入 | 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 风险提示：供应链成本优化不及预期、客户订单不及预期、人民币汇率超预 期波动、自主品牌发展不及预期。 | [Table_Profit 重要财务指标 ] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 2,407 | 3,332 | 3,278 | 4,123 | 5,084 | | 增长率 YoY % | -0.9% | 38.4% | -1.6% | 25.8% | 23.3% | | 归属母公司净利润 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the durable consumer goods industry, specifically for the thermos cup sector [1]. Core Insights - The downstream brands are entering a new product lifecycle, which is expected to improve the outlook for the midstream supply chain [2]. - Emerging brands are experiencing significant sales growth, with Owala's online sales on Amazon in North America showing year-on-year increases of +147% in November 2025, +321% in December 2025, and +449% in January 2026, countering the sales decline of Stanley [3]. - The report recommends proactive investment in overseas bases and highlights the potential for profit flexibility in 2026 for companies like Jiayi Co. and Hars [3]. Summary by Sections Downstream Brand Performance - Owala's differentiated product upgrades and marketing strategies are expected to replicate Stanley's success, with a focus on community engagement and affordable pricing [3]. - The sales of Owala have been steadily increasing since the second half of 2024, driven by innovative product designs and targeted marketing [3]. Manufacturing and Cost Efficiency - Hars has reported smooth capacity ramp-up at its Thailand factory, with expectations that costs will align with domestic levels by the end of 2026 due to improved labor efficiency and economies of scale [3]. - Jiayi Co. is also seeing continuous profit improvement as its Vietnam factory ramps up production, with anticipated growth in market share for key clients like Stanley and Owala [3]. Financial Projections - Hars is projected to achieve revenue growth rates of 24%, 16%, and 17% from 2026 to 2028, with profit growth rates of 471%, 24%, and 17% respectively, corresponding to a current market PE of 11, 9, and 8 times [3]. - Jiayi Co. is actively expanding its customer base outside the U.S., with new orders expected to contribute to revenue growth, alongside cost reductions from operational efficiencies [3].

Company and Industry Summary Company: 信达消费 (Xinda Consumer) Key Points 1. **Expansion and Order Visibility** The company is experiencing significant overseas base expansion, leading to high order visibility. Expectations for core customer orders in 2026 are optimistic. However, there is considerable pressure on performance in the second half of 2025 primarily due to the expansion of the Thailand base, which incurs substantial one-time costs. Performance is expected to improve gradually in 2026 as production efficiency increases [1][2] 2. **Brand Center Restructuring and Upgrades** In 2025, the company plans to undergo a dual upgrade involving the restructuring of its brand center and capability enhancement. The strategy includes building a matrix of popular products, accelerating the product launch rhythm from "biannual iterations" to "monthly minor updates and quarterly major launches." The retail strategy aims to create a "three-dimensional network," with a target for brand revenue to approach manufacturing by 2028 [1][2] 3. **Exploration of External Collaborations** The company is planning to continue exploring external collaborations in areas such as IP, trends, and outdoor activities, with expectations for accelerated implementation in 2026 [2] 4. **Market Trends for Insulated Cups** Insulated cups are becoming one of the core trendy product categories, alongside plush toys and figurines. The domestic market is evolving from viewing insulated cups as mere "functional tools" to recognizing them as "trend carriers," combining practical value with social attributes. This category is frequently featured in global top-tier IP product catalogs. However, there is currently a lack of leading brands in the domestic market [2] 5. **Social Media Engagement** Topics related to "insulated cup styling" and "high-quality insulated cup reviews" on platforms like Xiaohongshu have garnered nearly 500 million views, indicating a strong consumer interest and engagement in this product category [2] 6. **Design Innovations** Innovations in design, such as IP collaborations, dopamine color schemes, and elements of national trends, are transforming insulated cups into fashionable accessories that reflect personal style, while also providing social sharing value and self-satisfaction attributes [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the export volume of thermal cups in December 2025 continued to grow, with an export scale of 360 million USD (down 15.5% year-on-year) and a sales volume of 117 million units (up 7.4% year-on-year) [3] - The overall export amount and sales volume for the year showed a year-on-year change of -4.5% and +9.3%, respectively [3] - The report indicates that despite pressure on export prices due to U.S. tariffs, the export volume has been steadily increasing, with Amazon sales data showing a cumulative year-on-year growth of over 30.9% for the top 100 thermal cups in the U.S. market [2] - New brands are emerging strongly while mainstream brands are performing steadily, with YETI and Stanley showing modest growth in key markets [2] - The company has established a robust brand presence through value binding with specific customer segments, indicating that the rise of new brands is likely to elevate the industry's ceiling [2] Manufacturing Insights - The global supply share is expected to continue concentrating, with the company having entered the supply chain of well-known overseas brands years ago [3] - Revenue and profit growth for the company in Q1-Q3 2025 were +2.9% and -55.5%, respectively, indicating stable revenue but suppressed profit growth due to factors like increased overseas capacity and domestic brand investments [3] - The company's production capacity in Thailand is expected to enhance profitability, with a continued trend of downstream production transfer [3] Brand Development - The company aims to enhance its brand power through a comprehensive upgrade of its brand center, which includes independent teams for research, production, and sales [4] - The product strategy has shifted to a more aggressive launch schedule, with 40 new products introduced in the first half of 2025 [4] - Marketing strategies include innovative collaborations with popular IPs and a multi-channel distribution network [4] - The company has set ambitious goals, projecting that by 2028, brand revenue will approach that of manufacturing, with high growth expected in OBM (Original Brand Manufacturing) business [4] Financial Forecast - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 110 million, 261 million, and 388 million CNY, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 36.9X, 15.5X, and 10.5X [4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The research highlights the significant generational differences in consumer behavior and production capabilities across Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia, with Thailand resembling a "miniature" version of the Western consumer market, Vietnam in a rapid growth phase, and Cambodia reflecting characteristics of less developed nations [1] - The report emphasizes the potential for investment in Southeast Asia, particularly in consumer goods and technology-driven sectors, as companies leverage local production capabilities and growing consumer markets [1][2] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Insights - Thailand is compared to a "miniature" Western market, showcasing a mature consumer culture and a well-developed service industry, making it a reference point for companies looking to expand into Western markets [1] - Vietnam is characterized as a rapidly developing economy, with a GDP projected to reach approximately 62.69 trillion VND (around 4,700 USD) in 2024, indicating a significant consumer market potential [1] - Cambodia is noted for its low average income and high income disparity, with consumer spending primarily focused on essential goods, suggesting a slower penetration of discretionary spending [1] 2. Segment Tracking - Xiaomi Group is exploring the future of smart home technology with its Xiaomi Miloco initiative, aiming to enhance user interaction and privacy through advanced AI models [9][10] - The pet food sector saw significant growth during the Double Eleven shopping festival, with sales for the brand Guibao exceeding 1 billion RMB, reflecting a trend towards premium pet products [11][12] - The AI and 3D printing industry is experiencing high demand, with companies like Tuozhu achieving record sales during major shopping events, indicating strong market potential [21][22] 3. Macro Consumption Data - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, with service sector prices rising, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [35] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, but showed signs of improvement in the month-on-month trend, suggesting a potential stabilization in production costs [45] - Online sales data from major platforms indicated a decline in the home appliance sector, with specific brands like Ecovacs and Roborock showing positive growth despite overall market challenges [50]

Core Insights - The report indicates that China's defense equipment construction is entering a new cycle driven by both "steady growth in domestic demand" and "release of external potential" [15] - The global asset allocation environment is expected to transition from preventive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to a re-inflation cycle driven by both fiscal and monetary policy easing [8][10] - The manufacturing industry is anticipated to experience a structural recovery, with a focus on cyclical assets as economic demand stabilizes and PPI (Producer Price Index) begins to rise [10][11] Group 1: Global Asset Allocation Strategy - The report outlines three major trading themes for 2025, including the breaking of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, the impact of a weak dollar, and the tightening of liquidity due to government shutdowns [8] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring liquidity turning points and their effects on asset rotation, suggesting a shift from liquidity-driven to fundamental-driven asset logic in China [8][10] - Tactical strategies for 2026 include balancing equity and bond allocations initially, then shifting to an overweight position in equities as inflation and corporate earnings recover [8][10] Group 2: Industry-Specific Investment Strategies - The defense and military industry is highlighted as a key area for investment, with a focus on modernization and technological advancements in military equipment [15] - The report identifies opportunities in the light manufacturing sector, particularly in global supply chain shifts and the competitive advantages of leading companies [15][16] - It suggests that cyclical assets, particularly in sectors like power equipment, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals, will benefit from the anticipated recovery in PPI and economic demand [12][15] Group 3: Economic and Market Trends - The report predicts a stabilization in economic demand and a gradual recovery in PPI, which will influence market style factors and lead to a rotation from technology growth to cyclical assets [10][11] - It notes that the historical relationship between M1-M2 growth rates and A-share performance suggests a potential upturn in corporate profitability and stock market performance in 2026 [11][12] - The report also highlights the importance of government policies, such as the "Fifteen Five" plan, which emphasizes economic construction and modernization of industries [12][15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Hars (002615.SZ) is rated as "Buy" by Xinda Securities due to several positive factors [1] - The industry is experiencing a transformation in consumer logic, with trendy consumption giving new missions to thermos cups [1] - Hars has a solid customer base, and its overseas production capacity is expected to increase, leading to a continuous rise in market share [1] - The brand is undergoing comprehensive optimization and reform, with ambitious future goals set [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company Hars (002615) [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the transformation of stainless steel thermal containers from "durable goods" to "consumer goods," driven by emotional branding and differentiated design, with the global market size reaching $12.491 billion in 2021 [2][24] - The report emphasizes the company's strong customer base and the expected increase in market share due to overseas production capacity expansion [3] - The company aims for a comprehensive brand optimization and has set ambitious goals for brand revenue to approach manufacturing by 2028 [4] Summary by Sections 1. Leading Brand in Thermal Containers - The company has evolved from an OEM model to establishing its own brand, creating a second growth curve [8] - The ownership structure is concentrated, with significant shareholding by management, indicating strong confidence in the company's future [16] 2. Accelerating Consumption Logic and Industry Expansion - The consumption scenarios for thermal containers are broadening, leading to market expansion [24] - The global market for stainless steel thermal containers is projected to grow, with China being a major production country [24][34] 3. Overseas Capacity Boosting Market Share - The company has established a solid customer base, with significant revenue from major clients [3] - The brand is undergoing comprehensive reforms, which are expected to contribute significantly to future growth [4] 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 144 million, 298 million, and 385 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27.4X, 13.3X, and 10.3X [4][11]

Macro Trends - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is promoting the introduction of regulations for the supervision and management of listed companies, aiming to strengthen the crackdown on fraud and fund misappropriation [1] - The CSRC emphasizes the importance of corporate governance in listed companies as a foundation for high-quality economic development and aims to enhance governance rules and encourage independent directors and institutional investors to exercise shareholder rights [1] Industry Developments - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) is focused on fostering "start-up enterprises," "leading enterprises," and "unicorn enterprises" to enhance the resilience and security of industrial supply chains [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is working on establishing a comprehensive recycling system for new energy vehicle batteries, emphasizing regulatory frameworks and digital monitoring to ensure compliance and environmental protection [3] Healthcare Sector - Shanghai is advancing public hospital reforms with a focus on public welfare, including salary structure adjustments and funding optimization for major projects [4] Commodity Market - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has announced details regarding the listing and delivery of casting aluminum alloy futures, including fee structures and warehouse costs [5] Company News - Zijin Mining plans to spin off its subsidiary, Zijin Gold International, for a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, while restructuring its overseas gold mining assets [6] - Guanglian Aviation intends to acquire a 51% stake in Tianjin Yuefeng Technology, aiming for control over the company [6] - Sinopharm is set to gain exclusive rights for the AGT-siRNA drug GW906 in China, with potential milestone payments totaling up to 5.5 billion yuan [6] - Yihua Group's shareholders and executives plan to reduce their holdings by up to 4% of the company's total shares [6] - Digital China plans to increase its stake in Digital China Holdings by up to 4.28 billion yuan over the next 12 months [7] - Dongxin Technology has received its first batch of G100 chips, which have passed initial functionality tests [7] - Lijun Group anticipates steady recovery in its traditional Chinese medicine sector, driven by market expansion from policy changes [8] - CNOOC has announced the successful production launch of the Mero4 project in Brazil, which is expected to significantly increase oil production [8] - Harsco Holdings remains optimistic about the growth of the insulated cup industry overseas, driven by market segmentation and rising outdoor activities [8] - Shangwei Co. has confirmed that its main business operations remain stable, despite recent stock price increases [9]