美国财长贝森特：到目前为止，我们看到关税并没有造成损害。 ...

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen indicated that tariffs could lead to a one-time price increase for consumers [1] Group 1 - The potential impact of tariffs on consumer prices is highlighted, suggesting a significant economic effect [1] - The statement reflects ongoing discussions about trade policies and their implications for the economy [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary expects the House to vote on the tax legislation draft around 1:30 PM local time on Thursday [1] - So far, tariffs have not caused any harm [1] - The Treasury Secretary will maintain the market's perspective rather than the opinions of economists [1]

美联储博斯蒂克：近期乐观的通胀数据是由于企业推迟提价以获取关税最终水平的明确性所致。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-Vietnam trade agreement has raised concerns among analysts, indicating that the deal may not be as beneficial as initially expected, with potential negative implications for other Asian economies [1][2]. Summary by Sections Trade Agreement Details - The agreement imposes a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods exported to the US, which is double the anticipated 10% rate, setting a stringent precedent for future negotiations with other countries [5] - A surprising 40% tariff will be levied on goods transshipped through Vietnam, aimed at preventing tariff evasion, which could significantly impact countries like Thailand and Malaysia that are closely linked to Vietnam's supply chain [5] Market Reactions and Implications - The announcement of the trade agreement is seen as a positive development as it reduces uncertainty, allowing businesses to plan more effectively [2] - However, the report highlights that the negative aspects of the agreement outweigh the positives, particularly due to the increased bargaining power of the US in trade negotiations, which may pressure other countries to concede in future talks [3] Impact on Asian Economies - The trade agreement is expected to exert downward pressure on interest rates across Asia, with many central banks, including those in South Korea and Malaysia, having room for further easing [4] - The agreement may complicate the "de-dollarization" narrative in the region, as it could harm trade surpluses in emerging Asian markets, creating new challenges for local currencies [4] Currency Effects - The impact of the agreement on Asian currencies will vary, with currencies like the New Taiwan Dollar, Indonesian Rupiah, Indian Rupee, and Philippine Peso likely facing less impact, while the Malaysian Ringgit, Thai Baht, South Korean Won, and Singapore Dollar may experience more direct consequences [6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary warns that tariffs may rise back to levels seen on April 2 if trade negotiations do not progress [1] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The Treasury Secretary cautions U.S. trading partners against prolonging trade talks, emphasizing the need for progress [1] - A meeting with EU negotiators is scheduled, but specific outcomes remain uncertain [1] Group 2: U.S. Debt and Market Confidence - The Treasury Secretary expresses confidence in strong domestic and international demand for U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - The debt management process is described as orderly, indicating a stable approach to handling U.S. debt [1] Group 3: Interest Rates and Federal Reserve - Comments suggest that the two-year Treasury yield indicates that overnight rates are too high, with expectations for inflation to decline [1] - Criticism is directed at the Federal Reserve, suggesting that its judgment appears somewhat off [1] - The Treasury Secretary advocates for the Federal Reserve to control spending and adjust budget sizes appropriately [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that market volatility is expected to persist, and investors should diversify their U.S. assets to other regions while managing portfolio risks [1][2] - The U.S. credit rating downgrade and economic slowdown are anticipated to lead to a fluctuating stock market in the second half of the year [1] - The company maintains a neutral outlook on Hong Kong stocks and a slightly positive view on selective bonds, while cash is adjusted to a neutral position as a defensive asset [1] Group 2 - The uncertainty caused by tariff news is expected to remain high in the short to medium term, prompting investors to allocate funds to lower-risk assets [2] - The company holds a cautiously optimistic view on global bonds, particularly investment-grade credit, as a means to enhance risk management in portfolios [2] - Despite concerns over the negative impacts of tariff policies on the economy and stock market, recent data shows economic resilience, with a focus on long-term growth sectors while being mindful of short-term pullback risks [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Fed rate - cut expectations and the repair of the gold - silver ratio drive up silver prices, and tariff uncertainties support gold prices [2]. - The unexpected decline in US ADP employment data indicates a possible slowdown in non - farm employment growth, and the labor market remains resilient. Tonight's non - farm data is crucial for gold price trends. Higher - than - expected labor demand may boost wage growth and rate - cut expectations, thus lifting gold prices. Otherwise, the US dollar may strengthen and suppress gold prices [2]. - COMEX gold futures' net long positions in Q2 2025 hit a four - quarter low, and rising gold prices suppress speculative and physical demand for gold. However, in the long - term, US fiscal deficits and damaged dollar credit are positive for gold prices, and the dovish tone of Fed officials boosts silver's industrial properties, with the gold - silver ratio expected to converge [2]. - The operation suggestion is to adopt a buy - on - dips strategy. For the Shanghai Gold 2508 contract, focus on the range of 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2508 contract, focus on the range of 8700 - 9000 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 781.28 yuan/gram, up 5.24 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 8944 yuan/kilogram, up 197 yuan [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 175,461 lots, up 6,865 lots; those of Shanghai Silver are 272,055 lots, up 23,032 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract are 141,322 lots, down 1,842 lots; those of Shanghai Silver are 87,981 lots, down 3,833 lots [2]. - The gold warehouse receipts are 18,456 kilograms, unchanged; the silver warehouse receipts are 1,340,792 kilograms, up 2,133 kilograms [2]. 现货市场 - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price is 774.59 yuan/gram, up 1.69 yuan; the silver spot price is 8815 yuan/kilogram, up 81 yuan [2]. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is - 6.69 yuan/gram, down 3.55 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 129 yuan/kilogram, down 116 yuan [2]. Supply - Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings are 947.66 tons, down 0.57 tons; the silver ETF holdings are 14,846.12 tons, down 22.89 tons [2]. - The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 195,004 contracts, down 5,644 contracts; those of silver are 62,947 contracts, down 4,227 contracts [2]. - The total quarterly supply of gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces [2]. - The total quarterly demand for gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global annual demand for silver is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.24%, up 0.28%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.85%, down 0.05% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 21.75%, up 0.21%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.76%, up 0.22% [2]. Industry News - The US assesses that Iran's nuclear facilities are destroyed, and the nuclear program is postponed by 1 - 2 years [2]. - Trump announces a trade agreement with Vietnam, with 20% tariffs on Vietnamese exports to the US and 40% on transshipment goods [2]. - The US House of Representatives advances Trump's tax - cut and spending bill [2]. - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 25.3%. In September, the probability of unchanged rates is 7.6%, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 69.7%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 22.8% [2]. - The market expects 110,000 new non - farm jobs in June, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%. The US ADP employment decreased by 33,000 in June, against an expected increase of 98,000 [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the positive performance of Japanese companies, there are risks associated with U.S. tariffs that need to be monitored closely [1] - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is maintaining an accommodative monetary policy as it approaches its inflation target, but has not fully achieved it yet [1][2] - There is a moderate upward trend in capital expenditure according to the BOJ's short-term economic observation survey, with no significant changes reported [1] Group 2 - High inflation in the U.S. and actions by the Federal Reserve are critical factors that the BOJ plans to monitor closely in the coming months [1] - The BOJ is considering further adjustments to its monetary easing measures if corporate positive behavior can be confirmed to continue [2] - The Japanese economy is nearing its price stability target, with expectations of moderate consumption growth and improving corporate profits [2]

野村在最新研报中表示，日本政府最初设定的“完全取消美国关税”的目标已经无法实现，在谈判中难以获得政治上的完胜。考虑到美国并无意完全取消对特定国家的关税，且其要求包含了进口美国大米等政治敏感项目，任何协议的达成都很可能推迟到日本参议院选举（7月20日）之后。最终的解决方案可能是双方在互相升级（例如美国加征关税）后，再做出妥协并各自宣布胜利。需要警惕日本面临的两大核心政治风险，一是日本显著增加其国防预算作为对美国的让步，二是日本政府谈判失利导致执政党自民党在参议院选举受挫。野村预测日本股市将继续承压，而债券市场可能获得支撑。 ...