上 市 公 司 2025 年 06 月 27 日 中信银行 (601998) ——ROE 更早企稳，被低估的底部股份行 | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 12.64 | | 资产负债率% | 91.61 | | 总股本/流通 A 股(百万) | 55,645/40,763 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/14,882 | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： -20% 0% 20% 40% 06-27 07-27 08-27 09-27 10-27 11-27 12-27 01-27 02-27 03-27 04-27 05-27 06-27 中信银行 沪深300指数 (收益率) 证券分析师 郑庆明 A0230519090001 zhengqm@swsresearch.com 林颖颖 A0230522070004 linyy@swsresearch.com 冯思远 A0230522090005 fengsy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 报告原因：强调原有的投资评级 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 0 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a high-to-low reversal today, with banking stocks leading the decline and brokerage stocks showing unusual activity. AI hardware and non-ferrous metal concept stocks surged. The total trading volume for A-shares was 1.58 trillion, down from 1.62 trillion the previous day [1] Banking Sector - The banking sector saw a collective drop, with nearly 20 banking stocks falling over 3%. The banking index closed at 7446.95, down 219.00 points or 2.86% [2][3] - Specific banks that experienced significant declines include Hangzhou Bank (-4.56%), Qingdao Bank (-4.36%), and China Merchants Bank (-3.47%) [2][3] - The decline in banking stocks may be attributed to three factors: profit-taking by market participants, a shift in market style leading to adjustments in high-priced stocks, and increasing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could pressure banks' profit margins [3] Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector showed signs of collective rallying but ultimately faced a pullback. The brokerage index closed at 10635.91, down 5.19 points or 0.05% [4] - Notable performers in the brokerage sector included Tianfeng Securities (+7.89%) and Nanjing Futures (+6.99%) [4][5] Bull Market Sentiment - Analysts from various brokerages are increasingly optimistic about a potential bull market. Citic Securities predicts a significant bull market for Chinese equity assets, citing synchronized economic and policy cycles in major economies [6][7] - The key strategies suggested for the upcoming period include increasing allocations to Hong Kong stocks, focusing on core assets, and targeting industries less affected by trade tensions [7] - Guotai Junan Securities notes that the current market resembles the conditions of 2019, with improving sentiment towards new and old economic drivers [8] Investment Opportunities - The current bull market phase is characterized by a focus on sectors with high growth potential, including AI hardware, human-like robots, solid-state batteries, and new consumption trends [10] - Analysts suggest that the market is likely to see a significant shift in investment styles, favoring high-quality stocks with potential for valuation recovery [9][10]

作者 | 哥吉拉 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 今年来不断 被举牌、 创新高的银行， 涨势突然噶然而止 。 6月27日， A股所有银行股罕见全线收跌，六大国有大 行 中除建设银行下跌 2.09%外，其他几家基本均跌超 3%，还有几家城商行甚至跌超4%。 拉长时间看，从 2023年初开始，银行股就开启 一轮极为强势的持续 大涨行情，成为全市场最为被关注的行业 。 至今，农业银行、中国银行、交通银行、工商银行等几家国有大行，以及渝农商行、上海银行、沪农商行等区域银 行的 股价已经 实现 翻倍。 在期间，银行股也经历了很多轮被资金抱团炒高后又在资金退潮后回落，但无一例外，每一轮的阶段低点，都成为 了下一轮行情的起点。 这一次在显著拉升过后突然掉头大跌， 并 不能完全确定是否为本轮行情的阶段终点，但至少释放出了一个重磅的 信号 —— 风格切换 来了 。 截至 A股 收市，受权重股大跌拖累影响，沪指跌了 0.7%，但深成指和创业板都出现了小幅上涨。 共有 3379 只 个股上涨， 比例超过 6成，其中有6 0只涨停 ， 成交额 1.58万亿，仅小幅缩量475亿。 整体看， 市场交易情绪 ...

Group 1: Banking Sector - The banking sector has shown strong performance recently, with a two-week increase of 5.48%, ranking second among 31 industries [14][17] - Major banks like Jiangsu Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China have reached historical highs, despite a marginal decline in overall performance in Q1 due to macroeconomic conditions [46][47] - The sector's return on equity (ROE) remains above 10%, indicating resilience in profitability and dividends, supported by policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and credit growth [46][47] Group 2: Securities Sector - The securities sector has been active, with a recent approval for Guotai Junan International to provide virtual asset trading services, marking a significant development in the industry [48] - The sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio stands at 1.46, indicating potential for valuation recovery as it is at the 54.84% percentile of the last five years [48][26] - Expected improvements in global risk appetite and ongoing capital market reforms are likely to enhance the business environment for securities firms, with projected double-digit profit growth for the year [48][49] Group 3: Insurance Sector - Recent regulatory measures have curtailed aggressive competition in the insurance sector, particularly regarding dividend insurance, which is expected to stabilize the market [50] - The shift from a "scale-oriented" to a "value-oriented" strategy in the insurance industry is anticipated to lead to valuation recovery, with a focus on products that offer both guaranteed and floating returns [50] - Insurance companies are increasingly investing in bank stocks, benefiting from stable dividends and strong market performance, which is expected to enhance their investment returns [50][51]

Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has experienced a decline in stock price and significant net outflow of funds, indicating potential challenges in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of June 27, CNOOC's stock price decreased by 1.02%, reaching 26.10 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 7.11 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.91%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 12,405.32 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, CNOOC's stock has dropped by 11.56%, with a 2.21% decline over the last five trading days, a 1.52% increase over the last 20 days, and a 1.20% increase over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Fund Flow - The main funds saw a net outflow of 1.00 billion CNY, with large orders buying 1.31 billion CNY (18.37% of total) and selling 1.36 billion CNY (19.06% of total) [1]. - Special large orders accounted for 6.24% of total buying (44.37 million CNY) and 19.65% of total selling (1.40 billion CNY) [1]. Group 3: Company Overview - CNOOC, established on August 20, 1999, and listed on April 21, 2022, primarily engages in the exploration, production, and sales of crude oil and natural gas [2]. - The company operates in three segments: exploration and production, trading, and other business activities, with oil and gas sales contributing 84.57% to revenue, trading 13.11%, and other businesses 2.32% [2]. - CNOOC's operations span multiple countries, including China, Canada, the USA, the UK, Nigeria, and Brazil [2]. Group 4: Financial Performance - For the first quarter of 2025, CNOOC reported revenue of 1,068.54 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 4.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 365.63 billion CNY, down 7.95% year-on-year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 1,955.76 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing [3].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The discussion revolves around the **Chinese economy** and its transition from a debt-driven growth model to a new consumption-driven model, indicating the end of the industrialization phase and the debt and real estate cycles [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Transition**: The Chinese economy is shifting away from reliance on debt-driven capital expenditure, leading to reduced capital spending and a focus on new consumption areas. This change reflects a broader trend of investment constraints, increased consumption, reduced savings, and expanded imports [1][2][3]. - **Asset Price Revaluation**: Traditional industries in China are expected to undergo a process of consolidation, reducing excessive competition. This is driven by efforts from enterprises, individuals, and government sectors to enhance capital return rates (ROE) and free cash flow, resulting in a systematic increase in asset prices [1][3][7][8]. - **Global Capital Flow**: There is a notable shift in international capital flows from the U.S. to non-U.S. economies, particularly Europe and China. This trend is expected to continue unless a significant systemic collapse occurs, which would further weaken the dollar's credibility and accelerate its depreciation [1][13][14]. - **Renminbi Performance**: The Renminbi is showing a trend of appreciation in offshore markets, primarily due to issues with the U.S. dollar rather than improvements in the Chinese economy. The expectation is for the dollar to continue weakening over the next two years [1][12]. Additional Important Insights - **Impact of De-globalization**: The de-globalization trend has led to capital outflows from the U.S., increasing U.S. Treasury yields and indicating systemic risks within the U.S. economy. This shift has been exacerbated by China's reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings [10][11]. - **Future of European Economy**: The European economy lacks long-term expansion potential, as reliance on debt cycles is unsustainable. In contrast, China's initial debt expansion during its economic startup phase was feasible, but continuing this approach in a mature economy is challenging [15]. - **Stock Market Outlook**: The stock market is expected to see a rotation among major financial sectors (banks, insurance, brokerage firms) towards core asset styles, driven by supply-side recovery. This will lead to premium pricing for core assets and discounts for tail-end companies [20]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment regarding the revaluation of Chinese assets remains optimistic, with expectations of systematic price increases across various sectors, reflecting a shift towards a more sustainable economic model focused on free cash flow and capital efficiency [20].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the historical high market value of bank stocks in A-shares and highlights the successful investment philosophy of Dong Baozhen, who has supported bank stocks for eight years and benefited significantly in the context of "China's special valuation" [2] - Dong Baozhen considers Warren Buffett as a mentor and aligns himself with the value investing principles of Benjamin Graham, focusing on understanding investment targets and prioritizing moral integrity over profit [3][4][5] - The article discusses Dong's personal journey from hardship to establishing a unique investment philosophy, emphasizing the importance of character and the ability to recognize undervalued assets [6][10][17] Group 2 - Dong Baozhen's investment strategy involves a deep understanding of bank stocks, where he applies his insights gained from discussions with investment legends like Charlie Munger [8][29] - The article highlights the significance of maintaining a strong moral compass in investment decisions, where true value investors prioritize ethical considerations over immediate financial gains [17][23][25] - Dong's approach to fundraising is unique, as he prefers direct relationships with clients rather than relying on third-party sales, fostering a community of like-minded investors [71][75][76] Group 3 - The article critiques the common belief that long-term holding is synonymous with value investing, arguing that the key to success lies in identifying undervalued assets rather than merely holding onto stocks [109][114] - Dong Baozhen emphasizes that the ability to assess a company's current value is more critical than predicting its future performance, which is often uncertain [123][125] - The discussion also touches on the challenges faced by fund managers in maintaining integrity and the importance of aligning with clients who share similar investment philosophies [45][50][61]

Core Insights - The establishment of policies such as "Zhong Te Gu" and "Merger Six Guidelines" has heightened market attention on the movements of central and local state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the secondary market [1][10] - As of June 23, 2025, there are 27 central and local SOEs listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE), accounting for approximately 10.11% of the total 267 listed companies [1][2] - The overall price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of these SOEs varies significantly, with 11 companies exceeding a PE ratio of 110, while 8 companies have a PE ratio below 50 [1][8] Group 1: Company Overview - Among the 27 listed companies, 6 are central SOEs and 21 are local SOEs, with a total market capitalization of approximately 771.54 billion yuan for local SOEs and 476.39 billion yuan for central SOEs [2][6] - Three central SOEs have entered the "100 billion market value club," namely Kai Fa Ke Ji, Shu Guang Shu Chuang, and Xing Tu Ce Kong [4][6] - The average market capitalization of local SOEs is about 36.74 billion yuan, which is approximately 42.66 billion yuan lower than the average market capitalization of central SOEs [6] Group 2: Financial Performance - From 2020 to 2024, the revenue of central and local SOEs listed on the BSE grew from 15.655 billion yuan to 22.195 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.12% [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders increased from 1.861 billion yuan to 2.219 billion yuan during the same period, with a CAGR of 4.50% [8] - As of the first quarter of 2025, the revenue was approximately 5.048 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.43% [8] Group 3: Market Valuation and Recommendations - The market capitalization of the 27 listed SOEs is primarily concentrated in the 2 billion to 4 billion yuan and 4 billion to 6 billion yuan ranges [8] - The overall PE ratio for these companies is 56.20 times, indicating a potential undervaluation, especially for those with lower PE ratios [8][10] - Research institutions suggest that the current low valuation of central and local SOEs warrants attention, as these companies have the backing of substantial resources and capital from their major shareholders [10]

未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 客车这轮大周期驱动因素是什么？ 一句话总结：客车代表中国汽车制造业将成为【技术输出】的世界龙头。这不是梦想而是会真 真切切反应到报表层面。海外市场业绩贡献对客车行业在3-5年会至少再造一个中国市场。背 后支撑因素： 1）天时： 符合国家【中特估】大方向，客车是【一带一路】的有力践行者，已有10余年的出 海经验，在新的国际形势变化下，将进一步跟紧国家战略，让中国优势制造业【走出去】。 2）地利： 客车的技术与产品已经具备世界一流水平。新能源客车产品维度，中国客车已领先 海外竞争对手。传统客车维度，技术已不亚于海外且具备更好性价比及服务。 3）人和： 国内市场价格战结束不会成为拖累反而会共振。过去6-7年国内客车"高铁冲击+新能 源公交透支+三年疫情"三重因素叠加经历了长期的价格战，2022下半年宇通已率先提价，且需 求本身得益【旅游复苏+公交车更新需求】有望重回2019年水平。 客车这轮盈利能创新高吗？我们认为并不是遥不可及。 1）国内没有价格战。2）寡头龙头格局。3）海外无论新能源还是油车净利率远好于国内（无 需投固定资产）。4）碳酸锂成本持续下行。 客车这轮市值空间怎 ...

Core Viewpoint - Financial ETF (510230) announced a dividend distribution of 4.83%, with a payout of 0.668 yuan per 10 fund shares, indicating a strong performance and attractiveness for investors seeking high dividend yields [1][8]. Group 1: Fund Details - The fund is named Guotai Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 Financial ETF, with a main code of 510230, and was established on March 31, 2011 [2]. - The fund is managed by Guotai Fund Management Co., Ltd. and custodied by Bank of China [2]. - The dividend distribution is based on the fund's net asset value of 1.3838 yuan per share as of the distribution benchmark date of June 13, 2025 [2][8]. Group 2: Market Context - The Financial ETF tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 Financial Index, with nearly 60% of its holdings in the banking sector, around 20% in securities, and about 20% in insurance, making it a quality target for financial sector exposure [4]. - In the current asset scarcity environment, high dividend assets are favored, with stable earnings in the banking sector providing a significant advantage compared to other industries [5]. - The market for securities stocks is experiencing a revival, supported by increased liquidity and investor enthusiasm, leading to substantial revenue growth for brokerage firms [6]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The "Central Enterprise Valuation Restructuring" initiative is expected to attract more long-term capital into the financial sector, enhancing the valuation potential of financial central enterprises [7]. - Investors can consider Financial ETF (510230) for exposure to banking, insurance, and securities sectors, capitalizing on the potential for valuation restructuring [7].