每经编辑｜陈鹏程 王晓波 ０中国今日有847亿元7天期逆回购到期 2国务院新闻办公室定于2025年7月18日 (星期 五) 上午10时举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列 主题新闻发布会 3 国新办7月18日下午3时就2025年上半年工业 和信息化发展情况举行新闻发布会 4 美国6月新屋开工数据公布 5 中国空间智能大会将于7月18日至20日在深圳 举办 1 隔夜市场 美股三大指数集体收涨，纳指涨0.74%，标普500指数涨0.54%，二者均创下收盘新高；道指涨0.52%；大型科技股多数上涨，微软、英伟达涨约1%，谷 歌、亚马逊、苹果小幅上涨，特斯拉跌0.7%。中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨1.23%；蔚来涨超7%，理想涨超6%，京东涨超3%，拼多多涨超 2%，小鹏汽车、百度、哔哩哔哩、阿里巴巴涨超1%。 国际油价强势上扬，美油主力合约收涨1.72%，报66.31美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约涨1.55%，报69.58美元/桶。 欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨，德国DAX指数涨1.51%报24370.93点，法国CAC40指数涨1.29%报7822点，英国富时100指数涨0.52%报8972.64点。 2 超 ...

Core Points - The White House Press Secretary Leavitt confirmed that there are enough votes in Congress to pass the Genius legislation regarding cryptocurrency [1] - There is an expectation that Congress will continue to legislate on cryptocurrency issues [1] - President Trump plans to sign the cryptocurrency legislation, including the Genius bill, into law during an event on Friday [1]

Core Viewpoint - The White House Press Secretary expressed a willingness to facilitate more convenient cryptocurrency payments and indicated that there are enough votes to pass the "Genius Act" [1] Group 1 - The administration is optimistic about future legislation regarding cryptocurrencies [1]

Market Performance - US stock indices experienced slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.48%, Nasdaq up 0.33%, and S&P 500 up 0.27% as of the report [1] - Notable individual stock performances include TSMC rising over 2% due to second-quarter net profits exceeding market expectations and reaching a historical high, and PepsiCo increasing over 5% with second-quarter revenue of $22.726 billion, also surpassing market expectations [1] - Nvidia and Microsoft both saw approximately 1% increases, achieving market capitalizations of $4.2 trillion and $3.8 trillion, respectively [1] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks showed mixed performance, with Waterdrop rising over 28%, NIO up over 6%, and several others including Douyu, Zhihu, Kingsoft Cloud, and iQIYI increasing over 2% [1] - Conversely, NetEase Youdao, Xiaomi Group (ADR), and Gaotu experienced declines of over 1% and 2% [1] Company News - Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang sold 225,000 shares of Nvidia stock for approximately $38 million, as part of a pre-set trading plan allowing for the sale of up to 6 million shares [6] - Tesla officially announced the Model Y L, a six-seat luxury SUV, with an estimated price of around 400,000 yuan [7]

Core Viewpoint - The perception that the Federal Reserve operates independently of political pressure is described as a "false proposition," suggesting that market expectations of interest rate cuts may lead to a continued rise in the U.S. stock market [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Dynamics - As the term of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell approaches its end, investors are expected to focus on the policies of the next Fed chair [1] - Market volatility is anticipated to increase due to uncertainties related to tariffs, inflation, and the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to maintain long positions in the S&P 500 index and the VIX index, betting on increased allocations to high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence [1]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a reduction in the consumption tax threshold for super luxury cars from 1.3 million yuan to 900,000 yuan, effective from July 20, 2025. This change differentiates between different power types, with pure electric and fuel cell vehicles only taxed at the retail stage, while those with cylinder capacity will be taxed at both production and retail stages [1] - The total box office for the summer movie season (June to August) in 2025 has surpassed 3.5 billion yuan as of July 17 [3] - Changhua Group has received a designated order from a domestic new energy vehicle client, with an expected total sales amount of approximately 235 million yuan [3] - Dongfang Yuhong's wholly-owned subsidiary plans to acquire 100% of Construmart for 123 million USD [3] - Hongta Securities intends to repurchase company shares worth between 100 million to 200 million yuan [3] - Helen Piano's actual controller is planning a change of control, leading to a suspension of its stock from July 18 [3] Group 2 - Moulding Technology has received a project designation letter for exterior parts, with an expected total sales of 2.044 billion yuan [5] - ST Cube reported that there have been no significant changes in its operational situation and internal and external business environment [4]

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is facing unprecedented challenges, particularly due to Trump's ongoing pressure on Powell, leading to a reassessment of the central bank's policy outlook in the market. However, JPMorgan believes that there is no need for excessive concern [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Political pressure on the Federal Reserve is not a new phenomenon, and its independence is described as a "myth" by JPMorgan's Ilan Benhamou, who notes that such situations have been occurring behind closed doors for decades [3]. - Historical precedents, such as President Johnson's conflict with former Fed Chairman Bill Martin in 1965, illustrate the ongoing tension between political figures and the Fed [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - JPMorgan suggests continuing to invest in the S&P 500 and VIX indices, anticipating that investors will increasingly allocate funds to risk assets like cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence, while uncertainties regarding tariffs, inflation, and Fed policies will heighten market volatility [2]. - As Powell's term nears its end, investors are expected to focus on the policy inclinations of the next Fed chair, with a growing dovish sentiment likely to support further gains in the stock market under expectations of interest rate cuts [4]. Group 3: Legal Implications of Dismissal - If Trump were to dismiss Powell, it would be a historic first in the U.S., likely resulting in a landmark lawsuit that could ultimately require a Supreme Court ruling [5]. - The Federal Reserve Act allows for the removal of board members, including the chair, "for cause," and Trump has suggested potential reasons for dismissal related to the Fed's renovation costs [6]. Group 4: Supreme Court's Position - The Supreme Court previously indicated that Trump cannot dismiss Powell without cause, recognizing the Fed as a "structurally unique quasi-private entity," but left open the possibility for "for cause" dismissals [7]. - Legal experts suggest that even if the court finds the dismissal unlawful, it remains uncertain whether Powell could retain his position, given the court's limitations on providing "equitable relief" for high-ranking officials [7].

金十数据7月17日讯，摩根大通分析师Ilan Benhamou表示："美联储不受政治压力影响" 的说法是一个 "神话"，同时，基于降息即将到来的押注，美国股市可能会继续飙升。身为摩根大通股票衍生品销售团 队成员的Benhamou称："当前我们眼前正在发生的事情，几十年来一直在幕后上演。当下的情况与1965 年林登・约翰逊总统与美联储主席比尔・马丁的冲突相似。"随着鲍威尔的美联储主席任期即将结束这 一事实逐渐清晰，投资者将开始关注下一届美联储主席的政策。他建议客户继续做多标普500指数和波 动率指数，这一双重押注的逻辑是：投资者会将更多资金投入加密货币、人工智能等风险资产；同时， 由于关税、通胀及美联储相关的不确定性，市场波动性将加剧。 摩根大通："美联储不受政治压力"是神话 美股或因降息押注续涨 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - Grayscale has submitted an IPO registration statement to the SEC amid a surge in Bitcoin prices, signaling a new wave of listings in the cryptocurrency sector [2] - The current regulatory environment in the U.S. is becoming more favorable towards digital assets, with multiple legislative initiatives underway [2][7] - Grayscale's flagship product, GBTC, has seen a significant decline in its market position due to increased competition from ETFs and a shift in investor preferences [3][5] Group 2: Company Developments - Grayscale manages approximately $50 billion in assets, with GBTC currently holding $21.385 billion, generating around $300 million annually from a 1.5% management fee [3] - The transition of GBTC to an ETF has been a long and contentious process, culminating in a recent court victory that mandates the SEC to review Grayscale's ETF application [4] - Grayscale's decision to pursue an IPO is driven by the need to attract external capital and enhance its market position amid rising competition from lower-fee ETFs [6] Group 3: Industry Trends - The approval of new cryptocurrency legislation in the U.S. is seen as a potential catalyst for increased institutional investment and market stability [7][8] - The competitive landscape is shifting as traditional financial institutions leverage their brand strength and lower fees to capture market share from Grayscale [5][6] - The outcome of the pending legislation could significantly impact market dynamics, either fostering a more robust investment environment or leading to increased uncertainty [8]

Group 1 - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a procedural vote on a cryptocurrency bill with a result of 217 to 212, allowing the bill to enter the debate process, marking the longest voting record since the electronic voting system was implemented [1] - The bill had previously passed in the U.S. Senate in June, and this vote aims to advance the legislative agenda for cryptocurrency [1] - More than 10 Republican members voted against the procedural vote, which delayed the House's consideration of the bill [1] Group 2 - The cryptocurrency market showed stability with Bitcoin trading around $118,400 after briefly surpassing $120,000 [3] - Ethereum reached a new high, breaking the $3,400 mark, with significant increases in other cryptocurrencies such as SOL, XRP, and Dogecoin [5][6] - In the last 24 hours, over 120,000 traders were liquidated in the cryptocurrency market, with total liquidation exceeding $450 million [6] Group 3 - In the cryptocurrency market, significant liquidations included $4.5 million in one hour, $82.4 million in four hours, and $320 million in twelve hours [7] - Stocks related to blockchain and stablecoins in the Hong Kong market experienced notable movements, with Blueport Interactive surging over 45% [7]