Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The trading logic has switched to the industrial logic, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage strategy for the far - month inter - monthly spread valuation deviating from the norm. It is expected that the liquidity of the 11 - 1 reverse spread will gradually increase by the end of May, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The price of Henan spot is 15,050 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 50; Sichuan spot is 14,750 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change; Guangdong spot is 15,440 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 150 [4] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the "pig 2507" contract is 13,535 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 35; "pig 2509" is 13,985 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 25; "pig 2511" is 13,605 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 10 [4] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the "pig 2507" contract is 5,174 lots, a decrease of 1,503 from the previous day, and the open interest is 30,822 lots, a decrease of 503 from the previous day; the trading volume of the "pig 2509" contract is 20,829 lots, an increase of 568 from the previous day, and the open interest is 72,161 lots, an increase of 1,403 from the previous day; the trading volume of the "pig 2511" contract is 3,101 lots, a decrease of 485 from the previous day, and the open interest is 28,725 lots, an increase of 400 from the previous day [4] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of "pig 2507" is 1,515 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 15; the basis of "pig 2509" is 1,065 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 25; the basis of "pig 2511" is 1,445 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 40; the 7 - 9 spread of pigs is - 450 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 10; the 9 - 11 spread of pigs is 380 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 15 [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, and the value range is an integer in the [- 2,2] interval. The strength classifications are weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [5] Market Logic - In April, the second - fattening procurement progress was more than half, the sentiment of chasing high - price purchases cooled down, the group's supply reduction during the holiday was obvious, and the change in spot prices was small. Currently, the price spreads between fat and lean pigs in the north and south are inverted, the group's piglet sales have decreased, and the pen pressure in May has slightly increased. There are still second - fattening entry phenomena in the north, and the inventory accumulation rhythm should be continuously monitored; the macro - sentiment has cooled down, the capital disturbance has decreased, and the trading logic has switched to the industrial logic [6]

Group 1: Report Overview - Date of the report: May 8, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Zhou Xiaoqiu, Wu Hao [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - In April, the second - fattening procurement progress was over half, the sentiment of chasing high - price purchases cooled down, and the spot price changed little. Currently, the price difference between fat and standard pigs is inverted in both the north and the south, the sale of group piglets has decreased, and the pen pressure in May has slightly increased. There are still second - fattening entry phenomena in the north, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation rhythm. The macro sentiment has cooled down, the capital disturbance has decreased, the trading logic has switched to the industrial logic, and attention should be focused on the arbitrage strategy of the valuation deviation of the far - month inter - month spread from the normal state. The liquidity of the 11 - 1 reverse spread is gradually increasing, and attention should be paid to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5] Group 4: Fundamental Tracking Spot Prices - Henan spot price: 15,000 yuan/ton [3] - Sichuan spot price: 14,750 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton [3] - Guangdong spot price: 15,590 yuan/ton [3] Futures Prices - Live hog 2507: 13,535 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 35 yuan/ton [3] - Live hog 2509: 13,985 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 25 yuan/ton [3] - Live hog 2511: 13,605 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 10 yuan/ton [3] Trading Volume and Open Interest - Live hog 2507: trading volume is 5,174 lots, a decrease of 1,503 lots from the previous day; open interest is 30,822 lots, a decrease of 503 lots from the previous day [3] - Live hog 2509: trading volume is 20,829 lots, an increase of 568 lots from the previous day; open interest is 72,161 lots, an increase of 1,403 lots from the previous day [3] - Live hog 2511: trading volume is 3,101 lots, a decrease of 485 lots from the previous day; open interest is 28,725 lots, an increase of 400 lots from the previous day [3] Price Spreads - Live hog 2507 basis: 1,465 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 35 yuan/ton [3] - Live hog 2509 basis: 1,015 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 25 yuan/ton [3] - Live hog 2511 basis: 1,395 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 10 yuan/ton [3] - Live hog 7 - 9 spread: - 450 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 10 yuan/ton [3] - Live hog 9 - 11 spread: 380 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 15 yuan/ton [3] Group 5: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [- 2, 2]. The strength levels are classified as weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [4]

Report Introduction - The report focuses on the pig industry with a research date of May 7, 2025, and emphasizes the importance of paying attention to the rhythm of secondary fattening [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core View - In April, the procurement progress of secondary fattening was more than half - completed, and the sentiment of chasing high - price purchases cooled down. During the holiday, the reduction of group sales was obvious, and the change in spot prices was small. Currently, the price spreads between fat and lean pigs in the north and south are inverted, and the group's piglet sales have decreased. In May, the pen pressure has increased slightly, and a phased de - stocking may start. The macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the capital disturbance has decreased. The trading logic has switched to the industrial logic, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage strategy of the valuation deviation of the far - month inter - month spreads from the normal state. The liquidity of the 11 - 1 reverse spread is gradually increasing, and attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of pigs in Henan is 15,000 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 250 yuan/ton; in Sichuan, it is 14,700 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 300 yuan/ton; and in Guangdong, it is 15,590 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change [3] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of the pig futures contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 are 13,445 yuan/ton, 13,910 yuan/ton, and 13,530 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 5 yuan/ton, - 20 yuan/ton, and - 80 yuan/ton [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the pig futures contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 is 5,632 lots, 23,428 lots, and 4,524 lots respectively, with decreases of 1,232 lots, 15,573 lots, and 2,279 lots compared to the previous day. The open interest is 31,498 lots, 69,728 lots, and 27,719 lots respectively, with changes of - 1,022 lots, - 3,220 lots, and an increase of 103 lots compared to the previous day [3] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the pig futures contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 is 1,555 yuan/ton, 1,090 yuan/ton, and 1,470 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year increases of 255 yuan/ton, 270 yuan/ton, and 330 yuan/ton. The 7 - 9 spread is - 465 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 15 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 11 spread is 380 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 60 yuan/ton [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [4] Market Logic - The trading logic has shifted to the industrial logic, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage strategy of the valuation deviation of the far - month inter - month spreads from the normal state. The liquidity of the 11 - 1 reverse spread is gradually increasing, and attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In April, the progress of second - fattening procurement was over half, the sentiment of chasing high - price purchases cooled down, the group's supply volume decreased significantly during the holiday, and the spot price changed little. Currently, the price spreads between fat and standard pigs are inverted in both the north and the south, the group's piglet sales have decreased, the pen pressure in May has increased slightly, and staged de - stocking may start. The macro sentiment has cooled down, the capital disturbance has decreased, and the trading logic has switched to the industrial logic. Attention should be focused on the arbitrage strategy of the valuation deviation of the far - month inter - monthly spreads from the normal state. The liquidity of the 11 - 1 reverse spread is gradually increasing, and attention should be paid to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,850 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 14,450 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 15,590 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change [2] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the Live Pig 2507 contract is 13,445 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the price of the Live Pig 2509 contract is 13,910 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the price of the Live Pig 2511 contract is 13,530 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 80 yuan/ton [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Live Pig 2507 contract is 5,632 lots, a decrease of 1,232 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 31,498 lots, a decrease of 1,022 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the Live Pig 2509 contract is 23,428 lots, a decrease of 15,573 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 69,728 lots, a decrease of 3,220 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the Live Pig 2511 contract is 4,524 lots, a decrease of 2,279 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 27,719 lots, an increase of 103 lots from the previous day [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the Live Pig 2507 contract is 1,405 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 105 yuan/ton; the basis of the Live Pig 2509 contract is 940 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 120 yuan/ton; the basis of the Live Pig 2511 contract is 1,320 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 180 yuan/ton; the 7 - 9 spread of live pigs is - 465 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 15 yuan/ton; the 9 - 11 spread of live pigs is 380 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 60 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with the value range being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [3] 3.3 Market Logic - The trading logic has switched to the industrial logic, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage strategy of the valuation deviation of the far - month inter - monthly spreads from the normal state. The liquidity of the 11 - 1 reverse spread is gradually increasing, and attention should be paid to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4]