1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the number of piglet births, the pattern of increasing theoretical slaughter volume in the later period remains unchanged. Considering the impact of pig diseases around February, the slaughter growth rate in August may be relatively low, while the growth rates in October and November are relatively high. With the increase in graduation banquets in August and pre - stocking for the start of school in early September, demand will increase significantly in August. After September, terminal consumption will have a seasonal rebound. Supported by the low slaughter growth rate and increased consumption in August, the spot price is expected to rise again and reach the annual high, followed by an expected shock adjustment, but the adjustment space is limited due to the policy - guided reduction of the average slaughter weight [1][21] - LH2509 and LH2511 have a high premium over the spot, which has fully priced in the later spot price increase, so shorting on rallies can be considered [1][21] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In July, the spot market of live pigs declined. The spot price in the benchmark Henan region dropped from the high of 15.34 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month to around 14.3 yuan/kg, a decline of nearly 1 yuan. Futures performed stronger than the spot, causing the basis to weaken rapidly. The futures price has turned to a premium of nearly 1000 yuan/ton compared to the spot in Sichuan Province. The decline in the live pig market was mainly due to the reduction of supply by large - scale farms at the beginning of the month, followed by the resumption of their supply, increased willingness of small - scale farmers to sell pigs due to hot weather, and weak consumption. The strong performance of futures comes from seasonal expectations and policy expectations [3] 3.2 Live Pig Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Continued Increase in Theoretical Slaughter Volume Indicated by Data of Sows and Piglets - The national inventory of reproductive sows reached a low of 39.86 million in May 2024, then rebounded to a high of 40.8 million in November 2024, with an increase of 2.4% from the low to the high. As of June 2025, it was 40.42 million, equivalent to 103.6% of the normal inventory. From the data of reproductive sows, the supply potential of commercial pigs will gradually increase from February to September 2025. The number of piglet births in sample enterprises has generally been increasing since November 2024, indicating that the domestic live pig supply is still guaranteed during the traditional seasonal rise window period from July to September 2025 [4] 3.2.2 Feed Sales Data Confirm the Increase in Live Pig Inventory - From October 2024 to January 2025, the sales volume of piglet feed and nursery feed decreased seasonally, but the decline was significantly lower than in previous years, indicating that piglets were less damaged in winter. The sales volume of finishing pig feed increased significantly month - on - month in March 2025, earlier than in previous years. The year - on - year growth rates of finishing pig feed sales volume from May to June were 17% and 9% respectively, indicating an obvious recovery in the inventory of medium - and large - sized pigs and relatively sufficient slaughter volume in the next 2 - 3 months [8] 3.2.3 Accelerated Slaughter of Heavy - Weight Pigs Later, but Unlikely to Cause Concentrated Selling Pressure - The average weight of slaughtered pigs in 16 key provinces reached the peak in May and then declined, with an accelerated decline in June and July, and is currently at the lowest level in the past 5 years. The decline is due to the increase in temperature and government policies. Seasonally, the price difference between fat and standard pigs will gradually increase after August, and the demand for fat pigs will increase seasonally. With the current low average weight, there is a large space for the industry to increase the average weight in the later period [10] 3.2.4 Short - Term Demand Boosted by Festivals, but No Highlights in the Medium Term - The national pig slaughter volume has increased significantly compared with the previous year, and the slaughter gross profit in 2025 has been significantly higher than that in the previous year, indicating better demand this year. The reasons may be the improvement of overall terminal consumption and the reduction of the impact of frozen products. In August, demand will increase significantly due to graduation banquets and pre - stocking for the start of school. After September, terminal consumption will have a seasonal rebound, but the impact on price depends on the matching degree of future supply [13] 3.2.5 Feed Cost Reduction Benefits the Industry, Maintaining Profitability - The domestic live pig industry has maintained profitability for nearly 14 months since May 2024. Although the pig price was low in the first half of 2025, the industry still made a profit due to the reduction of feed costs. The price of piglets has been rising since January, and the cost of fattening pigs from purchased piglets will increase significantly. The theoretical cost of fattening pigs from self - bred piglets is concentrated in the range of 13 - 13.5 yuan/kg, while the cost of fattening pigs from purchased piglets will rise to the range of 15 - 16 yuan/kg. It is expected that the feed cost is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and the decline space of live pig breeding cost is limited [19] 3.3 Conclusion and Market Outlook - The pattern of increasing theoretical slaughter volume in the later period remains unchanged. Considering the impact of pig diseases around February, the slaughter growth rate in August may be relatively low, while the growth rates in October and November are relatively high. The large - scale groups are accelerating the reduction of the average slaughter weight, which may reduce the slaughter pressure in August, but small - scale farmers have a large number of heavy - weight pigs in stock. Supported by the low slaughter growth rate and increased consumption in August, the spot price is expected to rise again and reach the annual high, followed by an expected shock adjustment, but the adjustment space is limited. LH2509 and LH2511 have a high premium over the spot, so shorting on rallies can be considered [1][21]

Group 1: Report Overview - Date of the report: May 8, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Zhou Xiaoqiu, Wu Hao [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - In April, the second - fattening procurement progress was over half, the sentiment of chasing high - price purchases cooled down, and the spot price changed little. Currently, the price difference between fat and standard pigs is inverted in both the north and the south, the sale of group piglets has decreased, and the pen pressure in May has slightly increased. There are still second - fattening entry phenomena in the north, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation rhythm. The macro sentiment has cooled down, the capital disturbance has decreased, the trading logic has switched to the industrial logic, and attention should be focused on the arbitrage strategy of the valuation deviation of the far - month inter - month spread from the normal state. The liquidity of the 11 - 1 reverse spread is gradually increasing, and attention should be paid to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5] Group 4: Fundamental Tracking Spot Prices - Henan spot price: 15,000 yuan/ton [3] - Sichuan spot price: 14,750 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton [3] - Guangdong spot price: 15,590 yuan/ton [3] Futures Prices - Live hog 2507: 13,535 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 35 yuan/ton [3] - Live hog 2509: 13,985 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 25 yuan/ton [3] - Live hog 2511: 13,605 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 10 yuan/ton [3] Trading Volume and Open Interest - Live hog 2507: trading volume is 5,174 lots, a decrease of 1,503 lots from the previous day; open interest is 30,822 lots, a decrease of 503 lots from the previous day [3] - Live hog 2509: trading volume is 20,829 lots, an increase of 568 lots from the previous day; open interest is 72,161 lots, an increase of 1,403 lots from the previous day [3] - Live hog 2511: trading volume is 3,101 lots, a decrease of 485 lots from the previous day; open interest is 28,725 lots, an increase of 400 lots from the previous day [3] Price Spreads - Live hog 2507 basis: 1,465 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 35 yuan/ton [3] - Live hog 2509 basis: 1,015 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 25 yuan/ton [3] - Live hog 2511 basis: 1,395 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 10 yuan/ton [3] - Live hog 7 - 9 spread: - 450 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 10 yuan/ton [3] - Live hog 9 - 11 spread: 380 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 15 yuan/ton [3] Group 5: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [- 2, 2]. The strength levels are classified as weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [4]

Report Information - Report Name: Huajin Futures Weekly Report on Live Pigs [1] - Report Date: April 28, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core View - In the short - term, the live pig market is relatively stable with a slight increase in demand, and the pig price will mainly show a consolidation trend. As the May Day holiday starts on Thursday this week, short - term operations are recommended [3] Section Summaries 1. Live Pig Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: LH2507 closed at 13,540, down 120 (-0.9%); LH2509 (the main contract) closed at 14,150, down 315 (-2.2%); LH2511 closed at 13,795, down 215 (-1.5%) [3][4] - Spot: The national average commodity pig出栏 price was 14.87 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg (-0.2%); in Henan (the delivery benchmark area), it was 15.07 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg (-0.4%) [3][4] 2. Inter - month Spreads, Basis and Warehouse Receipts - Spreads: The 2509 - 2507 spread was 610, down 195; the 2511 - 2509 spread was - 355, up 100 [9] - Basis: The basis for July was 1530, up 60; for September, it was 920, up 255 [9] - Warehouse Receipts: The number of live pig warehouse receipts was 665, an increase of 440 [3][9] 3. Inventory and Inventory Structure - Piglets: The average price of weaned piglets was 523.81 yuan/head, down 0.95 yuan/head from last week. The market had stable rigid demand, and the price was supported [18] - Sows: The average market price of 50KG binary sows was 1641 yuan/head, unchanged from last week. The domestic inventory of reproductive sows was expected to be stable with minor fluctuations [18] - Commodity Pigs: The inventory of commodity pigs in April was expected to continue to increase month - on - month due to capacity recovery [18] 4. Standard - Fat Pig Price Spread - National Average: The weekly average national standard - fat pig price spread was 0.01 yuan/kg. Secondary fattening groups continued to enter the market, but the demand for fat pigs weakened as the weather warmed up [24] - Key Markets: In key markets, the standard - fat pig price spread increased in most regions, such as 0.21 in Liaoning and 0.24 in Hebei [23] 5. Slaughter End - Slaughter Rate: The national average slaughter enterprise开工 rate was 27.19%, up 0.35 percentage points. Due to secondary fattening diverting some standard pig resources, slaughter enterprises increased prices to ensure the slaughter volume [27] - Fresh Sales Rate: The fresh sales rate of key slaughter enterprises was 88.1%, down 0.05 percentage points [27] - Cold Storage Rate: The cold storage rate of key domestic slaughter enterprises was 17.45%, up 0.04 percentage points. Some regions had low fresh product sales and were forced to store in cold storage [27] 6. White - Striped Pork and Wholesale Markets - White - Striped Pork Price: The price of the top three grades of white - striped pork fluctuated [29] - Gross - White Price Spread: The gross - white price spread was 4.12 yuan/kg, down [3] 7. Profit and Cost - Self - Breeding and Self - Raising: The weekly average profit was 145.34 yuan/head, down 0.95 yuan/head from last week [35] - Purchasing Piglets: The weekly average profit was 58.80 yuan/head, down 1.39 yuan/head from last week. The increase in feed raw material prices squeezed the profit margins [35] 8. Market Information Summary - Supply: Large - scale farms had normal slaughter volumes, high slaughter weights, and concentrated slaughter by small - scale farmers, resulting in sufficient market supply [38] - Demand: Secondary fattening continued to enter the market, and the May Day holiday备货 supported short - term demand [38] - Cold Storage: Slaughter enterprises had low cold storage capacity, and the cold storage rate was expected to increase later [38] - Policy: The "Administrative Measures for the License of Breeding Livestock and Poultry Production and Operation" will be implemented on July 1, 2025. The increase in import tariffs on US goods was short - term positive for pig prices [38] - Epidemic: There were sporadic epidemic situations in some southern regions, and the southwest was about to enter the traditional epidemic - prone season [38] - Market Sentiment: The market sentiment was relatively neutral due to the fluctuating pig prices [38]