Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in glass futures prices, which rose nearly 3% after a period of decline, raises questions among investors about whether this is a temporary rebound or a sign of a reversal in trend [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The continuous decline in glass futures prices was primarily due to an imbalance in supply and demand, with weak terminal demand persisting throughout the year and failing to meet expectations during the traditional peak season [3]. - As of November 17, the average order days for deep processing sample enterprises across the country was only 9.9 days, indicating weak demand [3]. - High inventory levels are a significant factor suppressing prices, with national float glass factory inventories reported at 63.30 million weight boxes, significantly higher than the same period last year [3]. Market Conditions - In the spot market, prices in major production areas have been continuously adjusted downward, with prices in Hubei ranging from 990 to 1040 yuan per ton and in the Shahe area from 1020 to 1080 yuan per ton [4]. - The high inventory and weak demand conditions have made glass futures an attractive option for market shorts, leading to a situation where the 2601 contract experienced increased short positions and subsequent price declines [4]. Factors Influencing Price Rebound - The recent price rebound is attributed to multiple factors, including changes in supply expectations, valuation corrections, and policy anticipations [4]. - Expectations of production line cold repairs in December and an unexpected shutdown of a production line in Hubei have led to speculation about tightening supply, prompting some shorts to cover their positions [4]. - Last week, a production line with a capacity of 600 tons per day underwent cold repairs, resulting in a week-on-week reduction of 0.38 million tons in glass production [4]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts indicate that the glass futures market is characterized by significant divergence between bullish and bearish sentiments, with price fluctuations occurring near critical levels [4]. - The upcoming national urban renewal work promotion meeting on November 21 is expected to release policy signals that could boost market confidence [4]. - Despite the short-term rebound in glass futures prices, many analysts believe this is likely a rebound rather than a reversal, with two core variables to monitor: the extent of supply contraction and the strength of demand recovery [5]. Trading Strategies - The 2601 contract is currently at a relatively low level, suggesting limited downside potential and natural valuation recovery dynamics [5]. - Market participants are advised to consider shifting positions from the 2601 contract to the 2605 contract due to high inventory pressures [6]. - Companies are encouraged to use glass futures to hedge against price volatility and improve liquidity management [6].

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Weekly Report - 2025.10.20 [1] - Author: Shen Wen [2] - Report Source: Research and Consulting Department of Zhongyuan Futures [1] 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views 2.1 Soda Ash - This week, the spot price of soda ash remained stable. Supply decreased due to maintenance, but is expected to increase as previously maintained units resume production. Demand is weak, with some enterprises having poor shipping and a slight accumulation of alkali plant inventory. High supply and inventory strongly suppress soda ash prices, and the futures price continues to fluctuate weakly. In the medium to long term, there is still pressure of loose supply and demand under the pattern of new capacity release. Opportunities for shorting on rebounds after the weakening of macro - disturbances can be considered. The SA2601 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1150 - 1300 yuan/ton [5]. 2.2 Glass - This week, the spot price of float glass fluctuated. The overall supply was stable, while demand was weak, leading to a continuous increase in inventory. The futures price may continue to be weak. Attention should be paid to the cold - repair dynamics of production lines under the condition of profit losses [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week View Summary 3.1.1 Soda Ash - Supply: The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.48%. The weekly output was 74.05 tons, a decrease of 3.03 tons. Light soda ash output was 32.50 tons, a decrease of 1.71 tons, and heavy soda ash output was 41.55 tons, a decrease of 1.32 tons [5]. - Demand: The apparent demand for soda ash was 69.98 tons, a decrease of 1.11 tons. Light soda ash demand was 30.43 tons, an increase of 0.46 tons, and heavy soda ash demand was 39.55 tons, a decrease of 1.75 tons [5]. - Inventory: Soda ash enterprise inventory was 170.05 tons, an increase of 1.59 tons. Light soda ash inventory was 75.98 tons, an increase of 1.68 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 94.07 tons, a decrease of 0.09 tons [5]. 3.1.2 Glass - Supply: The daily melting volume of float glass was 16.13 tons, unchanged from the 9th. There were 296 glass production lines in total, with 226 in production and 70 cold - repaired. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 8.87 tons, unchanged [6]. - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.276 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 1.452 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 2.31% and a year - on - year increase of 11.14%. The inventory days were 27.3 days, an increase of 0.6 days [6]. - Demand: As of October 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.4 days, a week - on - week decrease of 5.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.2% [6]. 3.2 Market Review 3.2.1 Spot Price - As of October 16, 2025, in the central China region, the market price of heavy soda ash was 1250 yuan/ton, and the market price of light soda ash was 1130 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 120 yuan/ton. In the northern China region, the market price of heavy soda ash was 1300 yuan/ton, and the market price of light soda ash was 1200 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 100 yuan/ton. The soda ash futures price was weak, and the glass futures price dropped significantly [11][14]. 3.2.2 Price Difference - As of October 16, 2025, the 1 - 5 price difference of soda ash was - 90 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 price difference of glass was - 137 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17 yuan/ton; the glass - soda ash arbitrage price difference was 88 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 56 yuan/ton [20]. 3.3 Fundamentals 3.3.1 Supply - Soda Ash: The weekly output decreased, but is expected to increase as maintenance units resume production. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate decreased, with the ammonia - alkali capacity utilization rate at 89.42% (a week - on - week decrease of 1.67%) and the joint - production capacity utilization rate at 75.74% (a week - on - week decrease of 3.60%) [26][35]. - Glass: The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged. There were 296 glass production lines in total, with 226 in production and 70 cold - repaired [6]. 3.3.2 Inventory - Soda Ash: As of October 16, 2025, soda ash enterprise inventory was 170.05 tons, an increase of 1.59 tons. Light soda ash inventory was 75.98 tons, an increase of 1.68 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 94.07 tons, a decrease of 0.09 tons [39]. - Glass: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.276 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 1.452 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 2.31% and a year - on - year increase of 11.14%. The inventory days were 27.3 days, an increase of 0.6 days [51]. 3.3.3 Profitability - Soda Ash: As of October 16, 2025, the theoretical profit of ammonia - alkali soda ash was - 29.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45 yuan/ton; the theoretical profit of joint - production soda ash (double - ton) was - 129 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 53 yuan/ton [54]. - Glass: The report provides cost and profit data for float glass production using coal and natural gas as fuels, but specific analysis is not given [55][56][57][58].