Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Weekly Report - 2025.10.20 [1] - Author: Shen Wen [2] - Report Source: Research and Consulting Department of Zhongyuan Futures [1] 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views 2.1 Soda Ash - This week, the spot price of soda ash remained stable. Supply decreased due to maintenance, but is expected to increase as previously maintained units resume production. Demand is weak, with some enterprises having poor shipping and a slight accumulation of alkali plant inventory. High supply and inventory strongly suppress soda ash prices, and the futures price continues to fluctuate weakly. In the medium to long term, there is still pressure of loose supply and demand under the pattern of new capacity release. Opportunities for shorting on rebounds after the weakening of macro - disturbances can be considered. The SA2601 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1150 - 1300 yuan/ton [5]. 2.2 Glass - This week, the spot price of float glass fluctuated. The overall supply was stable, while demand was weak, leading to a continuous increase in inventory. The futures price may continue to be weak. Attention should be paid to the cold - repair dynamics of production lines under the condition of profit losses [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week View Summary 3.1.1 Soda Ash - Supply: The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.48%. The weekly output was 74.05 tons, a decrease of 3.03 tons. Light soda ash output was 32.50 tons, a decrease of 1.71 tons, and heavy soda ash output was 41.55 tons, a decrease of 1.32 tons [5]. - Demand: The apparent demand for soda ash was 69.98 tons, a decrease of 1.11 tons. Light soda ash demand was 30.43 tons, an increase of 0.46 tons, and heavy soda ash demand was 39.55 tons, a decrease of 1.75 tons [5]. - Inventory: Soda ash enterprise inventory was 170.05 tons, an increase of 1.59 tons. Light soda ash inventory was 75.98 tons, an increase of 1.68 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 94.07 tons, a decrease of 0.09 tons [5]. 3.1.2 Glass - Supply: The daily melting volume of float glass was 16.13 tons, unchanged from the 9th. There were 296 glass production lines in total, with 226 in production and 70 cold - repaired. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 8.87 tons, unchanged [6]. - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.276 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 1.452 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 2.31% and a year - on - year increase of 11.14%. The inventory days were 27.3 days, an increase of 0.6 days [6]. - Demand: As of October 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.4 days, a week - on - week decrease of 5.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.2% [6]. 3.2 Market Review 3.2.1 Spot Price - As of October 16, 2025, in the central China region, the market price of heavy soda ash was 1250 yuan/ton, and the market price of light soda ash was 1130 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 120 yuan/ton. In the northern China region, the market price of heavy soda ash was 1300 yuan/ton, and the market price of light soda ash was 1200 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 100 yuan/ton. The soda ash futures price was weak, and the glass futures price dropped significantly [11][14]. 3.2.2 Price Difference - As of October 16, 2025, the 1 - 5 price difference of soda ash was - 90 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 price difference of glass was - 137 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17 yuan/ton; the glass - soda ash arbitrage price difference was 88 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 56 yuan/ton [20]. 3.3 Fundamentals 3.3.1 Supply - Soda Ash: The weekly output decreased, but is expected to increase as maintenance units resume production. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate decreased, with the ammonia - alkali capacity utilization rate at 89.42% (a week - on - week decrease of 1.67%) and the joint - production capacity utilization rate at 75.74% (a week - on - week decrease of 3.60%) [26][35]. - Glass: The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged. There were 296 glass production lines in total, with 226 in production and 70 cold - repaired [6]. 3.3.2 Inventory - Soda Ash: As of October 16, 2025, soda ash enterprise inventory was 170.05 tons, an increase of 1.59 tons. Light soda ash inventory was 75.98 tons, an increase of 1.68 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 94.07 tons, a decrease of 0.09 tons [39]. - Glass: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.276 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 1.452 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 2.31% and a year - on - year increase of 11.14%. The inventory days were 27.3 days, an increase of 0.6 days [51]. 3.3.3 Profitability - Soda Ash: As of October 16, 2025, the theoretical profit of ammonia - alkali soda ash was - 29.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45 yuan/ton; the theoretical profit of joint - production soda ash (double - ton) was - 129 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 53 yuan/ton [54]. - Glass: The report provides cost and profit data for float glass production using coal and natural gas as fuels, but specific analysis is not given [55][56][57][58].

Core Viewpoint - The styrene market is experiencing upward pressure due to significant inventory reduction and supply disruptions, despite weak demand indicators in downstream sectors [1][3][4]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Styrene futures prices have shown strength, moving above the 7000-7100 yuan/ton range, driven by a notable decrease in port inventories [1]. - Recent maintenance schedules have led to unexpected supply losses, with major facilities like Guangdong Petrochemical and New Puxian Chemical undergoing significant repairs, resulting in a drop in industry operating rates to 75% [3]. - The autumn maintenance scale is higher than expected, which has contributed to the recent strength in styrene futures prices. However, supply pressures are anticipated to return as most maintenance operations are expected to resume production by October [3]. Group 2: Demand and Consumption - The production growth rates for major white goods such as air conditioners, washing machines, and refrigerators have significantly lagged behind last year's figures, indicating weak demand in the downstream market [4]. - Despite the weak demand, there is still policy support that may prevent a significant decline in styrene prices, with recent inventory reductions providing some price support [4]. - As of mid-September, styrene inventories at major ports in East China have decreased to 159,000 tons, down nearly 40,000 tons over two weeks, indicating a potential for further inventory reduction this month [4]. Group 3: Cost and Market Sentiment - Short-term cost stabilization is observed, with the chemical sector benefiting from a reduction in internal competition and potential consumption-boosting policies [2]. - The Brent crude oil price is expected to maintain a wide fluctuation range, with a low point unlikely to fall below $58 per barrel, which may influence the cost structure of styrene production [2]. - The overall sentiment in the market is influenced by macroeconomic factors and the balance between weak current realities and strong expectations, which will be crucial for styrene price movements in the future [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal market has shifted to a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to macro - events. For rebar, it is recommended to either wait and observe or conduct short - term trading; for iron ore, it is expected to move in a volatile manner; for coking coal and coke, a neutral stance of waiting and observing is advised [5][36][74] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rebar - **Investment Strategy**: The rebar market is expected to shift to a volatile pattern. It is recommended to either wait and observe or conduct short - term trading. The static valuation has returned to a neutral level. Attention should be paid to the outcomes of Sino - US economic and trade talks, signals from the Politburo meeting, the implementation of crude steel production restrictions, and the situation of coking coal futures position limits [5][6] - **Market Review**: The price of coking coal increased due to production over - inspection, driving up the price of steel. The spot price of rebar in Hangzhou rose by 200 yuan/ton to 3490 yuan/ton week - on - week, the futures price of the rebar 10 contract rose by 209 yuan/ton to 3356 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly narrowed to 134 yuan [9][14] - **Steel Mill Profits**: The profits of long - process steel mills expanded, with an estimated profit of about 378 yuan/ton in East China. The profits of short - process steel mills improved, with a profit of about 105 yuan/ton for flat - rate electricity. The profitability rate of 247 sample steel mills was 63.64% (+3.47) [20] - **Supply - Demand Pattern**: Rebar production increased by 2.90 tons to 211.96 tons, apparent demand increased by 10.41 tons to 216.58 tons, and inventory decreased by 4.62 tons to 538.64 tons [27] - **Valuation**: As of last Friday's close, the rebar futures price rose to near the flat - rate electricity cost of electric furnaces, and the static valuation has returned to a neutral level [29] - **Key Data/Policy/News**: Major events include the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project, the upcoming release of a stable growth plan for ten key industries by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, a coal mine production inspection notice, and Sino - US economic and trade talks [31] Coking Coal and Coke - **Investment Strategy**: A neutral stance of waiting and observing is recommended. For coking coal, the short - term supply - demand pattern is tight, and price support is strong. For coke, there is still an expectation of price increases [36][37] - **Market Review**: Coking coal prices increased, with domestic and foreign coal prices rising. Coke prices continued to rise, with both spot and futures prices increasing [39][55] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: For coking coal, supply is affected by factors such as production adjustments in major producing areas, and demand is strong. For coke, supply is temporarily shrinking, and demand is strong, with low inventory levels [36] - **Inventory Situation**: The overall inventory of coking coal decreased, with upstream de - stocking being obvious. The overall inventory of coke slightly decreased [53][70] Iron Ore - **Investment Strategy**: The iron ore market is expected to move in a volatile manner at a high level and can be considered as a long - leg position when shorting other black metal varieties [74] - **Market Review**: The iron ore futures price adjusted downward from a high level last week. The spot prices of various grades of iron ore increased, and the futures price of the 09 contract rose by 17.5 yuan/ton to 802.5 yuan/ton [74][75] - **Supply Analysis**: Domestic production has recovered, with an increase in the daily output of iron concentrate powder. Global shipments have slightly increased, with an increase in Brazilian shipments. Port arrivals and port clearance volumes have both declined, and port inventories have increased [89][90][101] - **Demand Analysis**: The daily output of hot metal is basically flat, steel mills have good profits, and the replenishment rhythm for iron ore is maintained [74] - **Inventory Situation**: Port inventories of iron ore have increased, and the total inventory of ports and steel mills has also increased [106]

Group 1 - The consumer industry plays a crucial role in driving national economic growth and is closely linked to the overall economic operation and development [1] - The consumer industry encompasses a wide range of sectors, including food and beverages, clothing and textiles, home appliances, automobiles, and various consumer services, indicating its essential nature in daily life [1] - Demand in the consumer sector tends to be relatively inelastic, with basic consumption needs remaining stable even during economic fluctuations, although choices may adjust [1] Group 2 - In financial investment asset allocation, consumer industry stocks are a key component due to their stability and counter-cyclical nature, appealing to long-term investors like pension funds and insurance companies [1] - Companies in the consumer sector typically exhibit stable cash flows and profitability, leading to consistent valuations that attract investors seeking reliable dividend income and capital appreciation [1] - The consumer industry demonstrates defensive characteristics during economic downturns, with essential consumer goods maintaining stable sales and profitability, making it a safe haven for investors during uncertain market conditions [2] Group 3 - The development of the consumer industry is closely tied to macroeconomic policies, with government initiatives such as consumption subsidies, tax reductions, and consumer credit encouragement directly impacting the sector's growth and business operations [2] - Changes in government policies are significant considerations for financial investors, influencing investment decisions across various segments of the consumer industry [2]